At the time, I was rooting for Baltimore, but now I feel that they will be a much tougher game than the Donkies would have.  Either way, it's too funny that Gomer went 1 & done again!

I did not want to go to Denver. But Ravens will be VERY VERY (VERY) tough.

Manning is a truly grteat QB but the dome effect has inflated his numbers and image. I read he is 0-4 in playoff games played in under 40 degree weather. That is kinda telling.

When you watched this last game he had a bunch of great plays but he had quite a few very bad ones including the picks.

If you take into account the conditions a QB plays under Manning is still exceptional but it becomes questionable as to how he stacks up against the VERY best. Not saying he is not cledarly in the discussion, just that he is clearly not a hands down favorite.

 

Back to Ravens - their D is playing like the Ravens! THis will be very tough. A REAL test. For both teams.

 

 

In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:

Both are tough,  but the Pats will previal to get the win. It isn't like the Pats play them before.

No way... AT denver could have been the end for us... Every game is a new story... dont get confuse... At home we can beat everybody in this league... 

 

denver is a hostile place... Altitude, weather, fans, manning.... noooo thanks

 

this is the best scenario for us.... By a mile 

trust me, NE will win 31  to 21 or 24

we'll give them the same treatment the texans got

I had Denver by a speculative 3.5 points against the Pats at Denver.  Now I have the Patriots by 9.0 points at Foxboro versus Baltimore.  Home field counts, especially against Baltimore, the #2 home field tiger and road kitten in the NFL. 

I have read that Baltimore's defense has been on the field for a total of 188 plays (including various false starts) over the past two weeks.  To make it worse, the wind chill at kickoff was 2 degrees above zero.  Baltimore could be hurting and worn down. This could be doubly a problem for Baltimore, given the team's age.  Older players don't recover that quickly.  Meanwhile, New England started coasting to their win early in the fourth quarter of the Houston game.  Note that one of New England's strengths is getting the other team exhausted through a succession of interminably long drives.  The team exhaustion factor wouldn't show up in my point spreads. 

 I ran Baltimore down a bit when I said that I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish the regular season with a 1-3 record.  Sure enough, 1-4 at the end.  They have had three great games out of the last nine, two against guys named Manning.  They beat Indianapolis at home but Indy was playing like a 6-10 team by my ratings.  Denver crushed Baltimore at Baltimore.  Pittsburgh beat them at Baltimore.  Washington beat them just a few miles down the road.  Baltimore really had nothing to play for against Cincinnati, so that loss shouldn't count against them.  Just before their 1-4 skid at the end of the year they struggled to beat Pittsburgh and San Diego.  Much of their season is all about struggles against also-ran teams -- Cleveland, Kansas City, Dallas, Philadelphia.  Again, due credit for them beating a Manning last week in double overtime, but over the last 9 games the team seems to be kind of flat. 

Paul, the only flaws in your arguements, is that for the 1st time in a while, the Ravens D is healthy.  They did not have Suggs & Lewis together at the same time for any of those 4 losses.

In response to SmokingJoe's comment:

It could have been 5 losses except for the 70 yard Flacco fling on third down with 31 seconds to go in regulation. 

In response to Paul_K's comment:

Agreed, except the D only gave up 21 points in 5 quarters.... Not too shabby against GOMER.....

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Disagree.  Here is my point that proves it. Patriots are 9 pts favorite at home vs ravens.  They would be underdogs at denver.

No question the HOME game trumps the opponent.  PATS have historically not played well @ Denver (2011 was the exception).

 

I'll take the home game, however, key to game is Brady being Brady and avoiding the long bomb quick strike TD's against.

 

Ravens are a tougher matchup, however, home game is the difference.  Pats win a close one... (I HOPE)

If I have to lose, Id rather lose at home to Ray than on the road to Gomer. If you lived in Indiana where almost every single person worships Horsehead and hates NE, youd understand. But I hope they dont lose at all, and I can yell a big ole in your face to Dolts nation.

Flacco passed for 382 yds against the Pats in the September meeting, the most he had all season. He had a 72% completion percentage and 3 TDs.

http://nesn.com/2013/01/patriots-have-fixed-issues-in-covering-deep-ball-since-torrey-smith-ravens-exploited-secondary-in-week-3/

So what have changed since that time? I found this to be an insightful analysis.

 

 

In response to nomadfan's comment:

In response to TheExaminer's comment:

Ray Lewis is a great experience guy for not making mistakes but at age 37 the linebacker has lost two steps.  That's why he's retiring.  He can't cover Wes Welker if he has no acceleration.  He can't chase down Vereen going around the end if he's two steps late.   He can't beat Sebastian Vollmer to reach Tom Brady.  With his nasty-looking Denver finger injury, I don't know if he can catch interceptions or wrap up tackles that well with a club for an arm.  If all he does is direct traffic, he'll make a good coach next year.

In response to Paul_K's comment:

Let's not talk about the matchup as if the Ravens would put Ray Lewis on Welker or Hernandez. They know Ray can't keep up, so they'll assign a nickel corner or a faster linebacker on those guys.

At this point, I think Ray Lewis might be their worst 'backer. He just looked old and slow in that Denver game (but some of it may have been the thin Denver air). Lewis is the emotional and mental leader, so he does make that defense better. I would be more worried about guys like Kruger and Ngata and other guys who can maybe push the Patriots O-Line around and get pressure on Brady or plug up our running game.

There's no doubt that Baltimore is a physical team, so we'll need to beat them in the trenches. To win this game, we'll need our offensive line to play well like they did against the Texans. We'll need Wilfork to be his typical self and swallow Ray Rice, and we'll need our pass rushers to bother Flacco. We can talk all week about matchups like Talib vs. Torrey Smith or Hernandez vs. whoever they assign to cover him, but I think the outcome of the game will simply come down to which team wins the battle at the line of scrimmage.

 

Have to disagree -At Denver would have been much tougher. The weather played a factor Manning suks in cold weather it favored Ravens --that OLD D of Ravens will have a hard time keeping up with the fast paced Pats Offense.

With apology to Edgar Allan Poe:

What this grim, ungainly, ghastly, gaunt, and ominous bird of yore
Meant in croaking 'Never Baltimore' ?

 

more concerned about getting the run going against the two 340 lb DLs. It's not so much the 340 lbs that worries me. It's that Ngata carries his 340 pretty good. I think they match up better vs the pats' interior OL. We may see the OL getting pushed back to TB.

Run the hurry up.  At least we had the bye. We go so deep in the playoffs every yer were typically beat up right now.  Well that's the ravens now.  Hostile environment, sense of urgency. Run power sweeps.  Hb screens.  Let them chase us for a half.  One extra day of rest at this point of the season is nice but a week was a lot better. Well out run them, you know with all our bitchassness 

Watch for Ravens to pull the same trick the Giants used--faking injuries to slow things down.

In response to natesubs' comment:

^ this squared. 

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There was no easy road to the Superbowl.  Going through Denver would have been a tall order indeed.  Would have been a brutal test of NE, but that can still be said with the Ravens coming to town.  If ever there was a team that was on a mission, it's the Ravens.  It's going to be an extrememly physical game, and you can expect a number of injuries on both sides.  But, on their home turf at this time of year I don't know if there is a tougher team to beat than the Patriots.