Week 1 predictions and Game of the Week

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    Week 1 predictions and Game of the Week

    Sorry to jump the gun, Tex. 

    My week 1 point spreads this year are partly based on the first down differentials between starting quarterbacks, and partly based on last year’s margins of victory all the way back to week 1 of 2011.  I add in factors for short weeks, for bye weeks, for teams that have shown serious home field advantages in the recent past.  I wrote my own time-weighted forecasting software for this job, and I keep trying to improve it.

    Weeks 1 and 2 were weak spots for me in past years.  My coverage of first downs in preseason will hopefully fill in this weak spot.  I have hopes of being the best point spread forecaster anywhere, whether free or pay-through-the-nose. 

    Visitor / Home / My points / The Gambling Public’s Points / Difference / Comments

    dal   nyg    3.6   4   -0.4  Let's translate this line:  I’m forecasting that the Giants will win by 3.6 points at home.  A point spread site, in this case footballlocks.com, forecasts a 4 point spread on the game.  There’s not much of a difference between my call and the Las Vegas line in this particular case. 

    stl   det    18.9   8.5   10.4  Now here’s a call!  The Rams have been nothing but a sorry excuse for a team all preseason, and all last year also.  I have Detroit running away with this game so badly that Detroit crushes the point spread like an aluminum can on the highway. 

    ne   ten    -5.3   -6.5   1.2  My numbers don’t quite see New England beating the point spread.  Tennessee is a pretty good home team.  However, with New England I don’t trust my preseason numbers.  I have to factor in Vollmer’s return, Mankins’s getting back to normal and Wes Welker's appearance, plus the Patriots have a number of young starters that are all getting better week by week. 

    mia   hou    6.4   10.5   -4.1  Miami actually looked pretty good against Atlanta in preseason.  Houston’s first stringers actually looked pretty bad at New Orleans.  This game could be a good reason why you should avoid taking huge overdogs. 

    buf   nyj    9.2   3   6.2  Fitzpatrick has looked ugly overall in preseason, as if Buffalo’s current 1-8 streak is not going to be a fluke.  New York may not have a quarterback but they have a defense.

    atl   kc    7.9   -2.5   10.4  Kansas City’s first stringers were going out and beating people this preseason.  Atlanta’s first stringers weren’t performing.  Big difference! 

    jac   min    5.4   4.5   0.9  Meh!

    phi   cle    6.1   -8   14.1  Everything I just said about the Kansas City and Atlanta tilt, double it!  Philadelphia has been lousy this preseason even with Vick playing.  Maybe Philly will stay true to form with their slow regular season start and fast finish.

    ind   chi    9.5   9.5   0.0  Absolutely no opinion here!

    was   no    15.2   9.5   5.7  New Orleans to roll at home, where they are tough, against a perennial weakling that showed little in preseason.

    car   tb    -3.2   -2.5   -0.7

    sea   az    0.6   -2.5   3.1  I prefer to avoid calls on games with less than a 4 point difference in point spreads.  I also prefer to not favor Arizona in all of September because of their truly horrid preseason games. 

    sf   gb    15.4   5.5   9.9  San Francisco has my #1 NFL home field rating over the past three years.  The flip side is that they are weak on the road, especially after a long flight east.  Green Bay is 2000 miles or so.  Green Bay also has a big home field rating. 

    pit   den    4.2   1   3.2  Peyton has got it going, at least for now.  Long range, maybe his neck will keep working, maybe not.  It should work fine this week.  Small point spread difference. 

    cin   bal    10.1   6   4.1  This barely cracks my interest level.  Baltimore to beat the spread.

    sd   oak    2.3   -1   3.3  Not above the legal limit.  Throw it back. 

     

    My game of the week is for Philly with Vick to dismay its fans in Cleveland.  I don’t usually see such a screamer. 

    Other great picks:

    Kansas City to put Atlanta in its place

    Detroit to have too much fun with St. Louis

    Green Bay to roll over San Francisco, a good team

    Other picks

    Miami to beat the points, although they probably won’t win.

    Jets over Buffalo

    New Orleans over Washington

    Baltimore over Cincinnati plus the points.

    It may seem strange to say, but even knowing what I do, I don’t gamble on football, ever.  Gambling is for people who don’t understand mathematics.  It’s an addictive habit.  Groups such as Gamblers Anonymous have to straighten some smart people out.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 1 predictions and Game of the Week

    You think you can pick em?  What are your calls?
     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from AcheNot. Show AcheNot's posts

    Re: Week 1 predictions and Game of the Week

    Paul, your text is a bit jammed together. A space between each game would be a little easier on the eyes

    Other than that though, good job

    I love Detroit in a romp over StL too
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: Week 1 predictions and Game of the Week

    Your formula may put too much faith in last years data... Maybe causing  the "weak spots" in the first weeks.

    So did you pick giants(- 3.5) based on the line moving from 4.0 points?

     

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Week 1 predictions and Game of the Week

    Interesting post Paul K, i wish it was much easier to read but I understand, it's not like you can go back and edit it now, until the site is fixed.

    If I could throw out a suggestion, I would really enjoy if you keep track and post your weekly wins and losses based on your picks.

    Years ago I used to have a computer program that you could set all these different parameters to your liking and put in different formulas, the catagories seemed endless, and then you could run your formula against prior years games and see how you would do picking winners with or without the spread.  It was a lot of fun.

    It is amazing how close sportsbooks are on the point spread. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from portfolio1. Show portfolio1's posts

    Re: Week 1 predictions and Game of the Week

    So many people overrate the Giants.... 

    THe Pats may not start out hopt offensively but will walk away with it by late in the thrid if not earlier.

    Bring on the rookie QB to face BB and this upgraded D... 
     
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    Re: Week 1 predictions and Game of the Week

    Oh, and I do not think the Jets win... I think their O pays so bad that they look pathetic and the NY writers start trashing the O and Sanchez... And wondering why they bothered to hide wildcat when it ends up producing a couple of plays but no points.


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 1 predictions and Game of the Week

    In response to AcheNot's comment:

    Paul, your text is a bit jammed together. A space between each game would be a little easier on the eyes

    Other than that though, good job

    I love Detroit in a romp over StL too



    Once I post I can see the problem, but there's no edit option.
     
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