Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    My results for week 9, large games, 4-1 against the spread, small games, 1-2.  It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood!  Here are the specifics from last week

    Visitor/home/my call / vegas line / net difference

     

    az  chi  -1.9  3  -4.9  large Arizona    win

    was  atl  16.4     10     6.4    large for the Atlanta blowout   win

    gb  tb  -7.1    10  2.9  small Tampa Bay to cover.   win

    mia  ne  6.1  10.5  -4.4  I take this number down 3 points because New England is coming off a bye week, BB is loaded for bear with trick plays, and numbers of Patriot players have healed up a bit.  In contrast, Miami just slugged it out last Sunday.  No call.  (In the end, Miami losing by 10 points is as close to a no-call as it comes!)

    kc  jac  0.3  6.5  -6.2  large for kc to cover, Jacksonville really looks awful.   win

    hou  ind  7.2  9  -1.8  not quite significant

    bal  cin  2.8  -3  5.8  large for Cincinnati to win    win

    car  no  13.5   13.5  0.0  dead zero, not a significant indicator

    det  sea  6.1  10  -3.9  small for Detroit to cover    loss

    ten  sf  12.1  4  8.1  large for san fran to blow out   loss

    sd  nyg  5.1  4  1.1  not significant

    dal  phi  2.1  3  -0.9 not significant

    pit  den  0.5  -3  3.5  small for Denver to cover and maybe win  loss

    Season totals – I worked off my deficit – 10-9 on the large calls, 6-8 on the small calls.

     

    I'll move on to my week 10 calls:

    Home /vis /me /vegas /difference

    chi  sf  6.5  3  3.5  small sf

    no  stl  -12.4  -14  1.6  not significant

    cin  pit  3.8  7  -3.2small cincy

    jac  nyj  17.1  6.5  10.6 large nyj

    atl  car  -1.3  -1.5  0.2    not significant

    buf  ten  -4.4  6.5  -10.9 large buffalo

    det  min  16.6  16.5  0.1  not significant

    tb  mia  17.7  9.5  8.2 large miami

    den  was  -3.3  -4  0.7  not significant

    kc  oak  2.5  1.5  1.0  not significant

    sea  az  14.2  8.5  5.7  large arizona

    dal  gb  0.0  -2.5  2.5 small green bay

    phi  sd  -1.3  2.5  -3.8 small philly

    ne  ind  -2.7  3  -5.7 large New England!  Add yet another -3 points for recent injuries to the Indianapolis defensive backfield.  My numbers don't respect Indy.

    bal  cle  -5.0  -10.5  5.5  large Cleveland

     

    Here are the latest power ratings for week 10.  Note which team is at the top, and the two teams comfortably behind the Patriots.  I just crunch the numbers.

    Current rank / team / victories out of 16 if restarting today / last week’s rank

    1  ne  15.5  (last wk. 1)

    2  mia  13.3  (last wk. 3)

    3  nyj  12.5  (last wk. 5)

    4  no  12.5  (last wk. 2)

    5  az  11.9  (last wk. 12)

    6  ind  11.7  (last wk. 7)

    7  atl  11.6  (last wk. 4)

    8  min  11.3  (last wk. 6)

    9  pit  11.2  (last wk. 9)

    10  dal  11.0  (last wk. 8)

    11  cin  10.7  (last wk. 13)

    12  phi  10.6  (last wk. 10)

    13  hou  10.0  (last wk. 16)

    14  gb  9.0  (last wk. 14)

    15  den  8.7  (last wk. 15)

    16  car  8.7  (last wk. 21)

    17  buf  8.6  (last wk. 18)

    18  bal  8.5  (last wk. 11)

    19  nyg  8.1  (last wk. 17)

    20  sd  7.8  (last wk. 20)

    21  sf  7.0  (last wk. 19)

    22  chi  4.7  (last wk. 22)

    23  sea  4.5  (last wk. 23)

    24  was  4.5  (last wk. 24)

    25  ten  3.7  (last wk. 31)

    26  tb  3.5  (last wk. 27)

    27  cle  3.2  (last wk. 25)

    28  jac  3.1  (last wk. 32)

    29  det  2.3  (last wk. 28)

    30  stl  2.3  (last wk. 29)

    31  kc  2.2  (last wk. 26)

    32  oak  1.8  (last wk. 30)

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from underdogg. Show underdogg's posts

    Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    You know none of this matters, BUT I am just so amused at your ability to suggest objectively that your "system" has any credibility when it miraculously places 3 AFC East teams as the top 3 teams in the NFL. 

    You have to share your methodology with us.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    My completely homemade stat is the number of victories that a team would achieve if the season restarted tomorrow, and if teams played each other at random.  It works on the following principles.

    1.  I count point differential because it’s exactly what each coach wants.  A team plays its most predictive football for three quarters.  In the fourth quarter teams take on strategies not to maximize points, but to seal the win, to gamble for the win or to try out the rookies (in the Tennessee game).  For these reasons I count only the first three quarters of point differential as a statistical signal for future game potential.  I consider scoring in the fourth quarter as too much noise to get a useful signal. 

    2.  A team that dominates time of possession statistically does better in the fourth quarter.  Whole-game time of possession (excluding overtime) is independent of point differential.  I arbitrarily give 1 point for each 2.5 minutes of possession over 30.

    3.  A home team should be three points better.

    4.  I arbitrarily assume that a team with a strength of 9-7 will be 1.5 points better than a team with a strength of 8-8.

    5.  Good ratings start to go stale as teams change.  Many teams see season-ending injuries and of course they stay that way.  Sometimes newbie defenses and offenses (such as the Patriots) start to get better.  I have a weighting factor that applies a 10% per game (arbitrary) stale rate.  Note that my stats are completely blind to quite recent injury reports.

    6.  My spreadsheet goes to work and finds out what 32 NFL power rankings would best fit the above criteria -- who outscored who, and by how much -- over the season.  I can then predict (not as well as Vegas, probably) future scores. 

    Note that teams with a bye can move up or down, somewhat in synch with teams that they have previously played, depending on how the other teams perform.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from bronson05. Show bronson05's posts

    Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    In my system the Colts are 32.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from clouts. Show clouts's posts

    Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    Well, if nothing else, you have the strangest power rankings of anyone I've ever seen.


     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    Thanks.  And I'm going to be right.  Most of the time.  Notice how my rankings don't change much from week to week, unlike other, subjective power rankings.  The biggest mover was Arizona.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from unclealfie. Show unclealfie's posts

    Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]Thanks.  And I'm going to be right.  Most of the time.  Notice how my rankings don't change much from week to week, unlike other, subjective power rankings.  The biggest mover was Arizona.
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    the beauty is that a power ranking is simply an opinion, so it can't be proven right or wrong.

    You said earlier that your season record is 10-9, essentially even, on "large" games. Not to bust your azz, but wouldn't flipping a coin give pretty much the same results? 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Yapple. Show Yapple's posts

    Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    My system is infallible. The Patriots are number one every week.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from K-max. Show K-max's posts

    Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    Hell Flip LeChance was 64-51 as of my Nov 4th PFW.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week 10 Picks and Power Ratings : the beauty is that a power ranking is simply an opinion, so it can't be proven right or wrong. You said earlier that your season record is 10-9, essentially even, on "large" games. Not to bust your azz, but wouldn't flipping a coin give pretty much the same results? 
    Posted by unclealfie[/QUOTE]
    So far, I'm having trouble beating Vegas.  Given the acknowledged injury blind spot in my statistics, and the fact that they pay the Vegas sharks big money to be on top of the world with 10 to 100 times as much data input, flipping a coin isn't that bad an option.  I'm still going to see if I get any kind of signal down the road, just for the joy of possibly getting the scoop on the pros.  I know enough about gambling to stay out and win.  99% of gamblers are losers and the other 1% are often unhappy.

    However, I'm getting quite decent power ratings untainted by favoritism, at a depth level which may beat the average sportswriter's brain hands down, and for rather little effort on my part. 

    I can work backwards from my stats into logical arguments.  For example, I can argue that Indy has trouble really beating average teams lately, and that justifies their 12-4 rating.  Uncontrollable miracle finishes are not replicable. 

    I'm also getting a signal which is quite independent from the crowd's prognostication.  That has value.  Wouldn't you want a real second opinion?
     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share