Week 10 power ratings

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Week 10 power ratings

    The Indy game comes out all interesting with my stats.  As many of you know, I ignore the fourth quarter stats because teams gamble like heck, and win big, and lose big, but in my opinion that’s not the basic character of the team because it’s not predictive of next week or next month. 

    I remember when Denver was 6-0 but my stats were calling out Denver as one of the two biggest fakes in the NFL.  Well guess what?  Denver continues to drop like a rock in my stats.  Only problem is, San Diego isn’t too much better than them.

    From the third quarter perspective that I use, Indianapolis did not at all put away the Patriots early.  Far from it.  Rather, the Patriots put Indy away early and dominated the clock too.  Indy is a good team, and not in the same fake category as Denver.  But statistically they’re no Patriots!  Rather, the Colts mostly soared up the charts to #2 because three other high ranking teams showed off their mortality/incompetence.  Miami at home didn’t roll over Tampa Bay as the numbers expected, the Jets came out completely incompetent at home vs. Jacksonville, and New Orleans did not impress anyone against mighty St. Louis.  Indy’s gain from 11.7 to 12.4 was mainly from the triumphs of its division rivals Tennessee and Jacksonville over AFC East teams, and not at all from its own weak showing. 

    So, my spreadsheet still has New England as slight favorites for a projected January playoff game in Indianapolis, if Indy makes it that far through the playoffs.  As for injuries, I don’t know whether to credit Indy for surviving a massive amount of backfield injuries (now Melvin Bullitt too), or to warn people that Indy could fall a bit further in the next two weeks. 

    One trend to explore:  does a change in power ranking portend any further moves in power ranking (due to the effects of injuries continuing for weeks, or inversely for player recovery)?  I notice that until this week New England’s ranking steadily rose from week 1 to week 9.

    Here’s last week’s (somewhat unhappy) breakdown:

    chi  sf  3   small sf  win

    cin  pit  7 small cincy  win

    jac  nyj  6.5  large nyj  loss

    buf  ten  6.5 large buffalo  loss

    tb  mia   9.5  large Miami  loss

    sea  az  8.5   large Arizona  win

    dal  gb   -2.5 small green bay win

    phi  sd  2.5  small philly  loss

    ne  ind    3  large New England!  win

    bal  cle    -10.5   large Cleveland  loss

    Week totals versus the spread:  Large calls, 2-4, small calls, 3-1.

    Season totals:  12-13 on the large calls, 9-9 on the small calls, no signal here.  I am destined to not become a Vegas shark (or to gamble against one).

    I’ll try some week 11 calls against the spread when all spreads are out.

     

    Team / Week 10 strength (out of 16 wins) / last week’s rank

    1  ne  14.8  (last wk. 1)

    2  ind  12.4  (last wk. 6)

    3  cin  11.5  (last wk. 11)

    4  az  11.4  (last wk. 5)

    5  mia  11.2  (last wk. 2)

    6  pit  11.1  (last wk. 9)

    7  min  10.9  (last wk. 8)

    8  no  10.8  (last wk. 4)

    9  dal  10.6  (last wk. 10)

    10  atl  10.4  (last wk. 7)

    11  hou  10.0  (last wk. 13)

    12  gb  9.8  (last wk. 14)

    13  nyj  9.5  (last wk. 3)

    14  bal  9.2  (last wk. 12)

    15  sd  9.0  (last wk. 20)

    16  phi  9.0  (last wk. 18)

    17  car  8.6  (last wk. 16)

    18  den  8.4  (last wk. 15)

    19  nyg  7.8  (last wk. 19)

    20  buf  7.2  (last wk. 17)

    21  sf  6.9  (last wk. 21)

    22  sea  6.5  (last wk. 23)

    23  jac  5.8  (last wk. 28)

    24  chi  5.4  (last wk. 22)

    25  was  4.8  (last wk. 24)

    26  ten  4.3  (last wk. 25)

    27  stl  4.0  (last wk. 30)

    28  det  4.0  (last wk. 29)

    29  tb  4.0  (last wk. 26)

    30  kc  2.8  (last wk. 31)

    31  cle  2.7  (last wk. 27)

    32  oak  1.1  (last wk. 32)

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ColtsMan73. Show ColtsMan73's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    Who cares what you say douschebag.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from clouts. Show clouts's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    LOL.  So, your long-winded post gives you the same results as flipping a coin.  And, you still have NE first.....

    Real scientific.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ColtFan69. Show ColtFan69's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    Typical Chowd, let's throw out 25% of the game because the stats don't favor our beloved patriocheaters!!!!




    Goats beware!!!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from NEGAME. Show NEGAME's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 10 power ratings:
    [QUOTE]LOL.  So, your long-winded post gives you the same results as flipping a coin.  And, you still have NE first..... Real scientific.
    Posted by clouts[/QUOTE

    I just want to thank all the Colts, Jets and Giants "fans" who make me laugh out loud with all their silly stupid posts! Really I get a kick out of reading them. and I guess you think we give a da* what y'all think.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from underdogg. Show underdogg's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    Check it out.  Paul's power rankings again put the pats on top.  Of course this is a completely objective, statistical, computer generated ranking.  You know those same kind of computer generated statistics told Belichick to go for it on 4th and 2 from his 28. Maybe the computer wouldn't have bobbled that catch.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ColtFan69. Show ColtFan69's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 10 power ratings:
    In Response to Re: Week 10 power ratings :
    LOL.  So, your long-winded post gives you the same results as flipping a coin.  And, you still have NE first..... Real scientific. Posted by clouts[/QUOTE I just want to thank all the Colts, Jets and Giants "fans" who make me laugh out loud with all their silly stupid posts! Really I get a kick out of reading them. and I guess you think we give a da* what y'all think.
    Posted by NEGAME


    Shouldn't you be asleep now?  I'll bet working on that pole all night long has to make for a long night!  W h o r e!
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from clouts. Show clouts's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    If I were a Colts, Jets, or Giants "fan" y'all would have a point.

    I just can't fathom how anyone, not smacking of homerism, could honestly put a 6-3 team at the top of the mythical power rankings.  They should just say they are bending the rules to accomodate where their team is....
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    I never bent the scoring rules that I created around week 3 and formulated into the spreadsheet around week 6. 

    Indy is in second place because they can't score in the first quarter, can't score in the second quarter, can't score in the third quarter and then they save their bacon by playing the big odds in the fourth quarter.  The first, second and third quarters are replicable next week and next month.  The coin flip plays have a much lower chance of being replicable next week, no matter which way they flip this week.  Do you judge your stock broker by him getting 10% behind the market in the first three quarters of the year, then going to Vegas, putting a big pile of your cash on one spin of Red 17 and winning big, and claiming a market-beating net profit for the year?

    It's enough to say that my stats are highly independent of Vegas's point spread.  Vegas (and all the bettors nationwide) gets complete credit for examining exactly who is injured each week and exactly how each player matches up that particular week.  My stats are blind to all this other useful information.  Yet my independent power ratings still provide a useful independent opinion on who will win, and by how much, when used in conjunction with the wealth of injury and matchup information. 

    I may yet get a "signal", a weak correlation between my spreadsheet's predictions against the spread and outcomes.  Or I may not.  I won't know until at least week 17.  In the meantime I put my spreadsheet's predictions out there just to be honest to myself, and because other fans are putting their calls out.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from m1020us. Show m1020us's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 10 power ratings:
    In Response to Re: Week 10 power ratings :
    LOL.  So, your long-winded post gives you the same results as flipping a coin.  And, you still have NE first..... Real scientific. Posted by clouts[/QUOTE I just want to thank all the Colts, Jets and Giants "fans" who make me laugh out loud with all their silly stupid posts! Really I get a kick out of reading them. and I guess you think we give a da* what y'all think.
    Posted by NEGAME


    NEGAME, is that you in the picture?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from gmbill. Show gmbill's posts

    Re: Week 10 power ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 10 power ratings:
    In Response to Re: Week 10 power ratings :
    LOL.  So, your long-winded post gives you the same results as flipping a coin.  And, you still have NE first..... Real scientific. Posted by clouts[/QUOTE I just want to thank all the Colts, Jets and Giants "fans" who make me laugh out loud with all their silly stupid posts! Really I get a kick out of reading them. and I guess you think we give a da* what y'all think.
    Posted by NEGAME


    Game; We do not give a dam what they think....you are correct
     
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