Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

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    Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         The "Game of the Week" in week 12 is of course The Patriots @ New Orleans Saints. Though it won't top the Indy game in significance, it represents the last regular season chance for the Patriots to show the football world that they are indeed an elite team...and a prime threat to win a SB. Due to the significance of the upcoming Saints game, as I did with the Indy game, I will break down what I believe to be the key match-ups in this game:

         1.) Saints' DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant v. Pats' OTs: The Saints have much in common with our good bud, the Indianapolis Colts, on both offense and defense. like Indy, the Saints boast two good DEs, in Will Smith and Charles Grant...who have combined for 13 sacks this season. The pressure they apply on pass plays is one of the main reasons why the Saints' "D" has intercepted 20 passes, 14 fumble recoveries, and scored 7 TDs, thus far this season. Nick Kaczur got abused in Indy by Robert Mathis. He must perform better Monday night.
    ADVANTAGE: Saints;

         2.) Saints Secondary V. Tom Brady: If the Pats are able to contain the Saints' DEs, look for Tom Brady to have a field day against a bruised up Saints' secondary. Their group is led by ball-hawking safety Darren Sharper, who already has amassed 7 interceptions. But, the Saints starting CBs, Jabari Greer (groin) and Tracy Porter (knee), will likely miss this game due to injury. Furthermore, their nickel back, ex-Patriot Randal Gay, also may miss Monday's battle due to a hamstring injury. Rookie CB, and Saints' #1 pick Malcolm Jenkins must step-up big time at CB.
    ADVATAGE: Patriots;

         3.) Saints Receivers v. Pats' Secondary: WR Marques Colston is the Saints' answer to Randy Moss. The Pats' secondary must not allow Colston to get behind them. The other receiver demanding attention is slot-receiver Lance Moore (the Saints' Wes Welker). When healthy, Moore made the Saints' offense purr. The recent offensive drop-off is a direct result of Moore suffering an ankle injury. Though he has missed three straight games, I wouldn't be surprised to see him suit up Monday:
    ADVANTAGE: Saints;

         4.) The Running Games: The Saints have been somewhat vulnerable against the run. Though thats' not what the Patriots do best, Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk should be able to easily combine for over 100 yards rushing. Reggie Bush is dinged up, but should play. But, Bush is more of a receiving than a running threat in the Saints' offense. RB Pierre Thomas is having a Joseph Addai type impact on the Saints' offense:
    ADVANTAGE: Saints;

         
    5.) Coaches: Though Sean Payton has done a terrific job with the Saints offense, and his DC, Greg Williams, has transformed a former lethargic "D"  into a ball-hawking, aggressive lot, BB remains the best coach in the game:
    ADVANTAGE: Patriots;

         
    That said, here are my picks:

    1.) New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: As I mentioned above, these Saints are similar to the current Indianapolis Colts on defense, and the 2007 Patriots on offense. They are averaging nearly 37 points per game. Beating them will require a turnover free, rousing 60 minute performance, on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, the Patriots' have shown a tendency to play 48 minute games, with their defense unable to stop opposing offenses in the closing minutes of games. They have also had redzone problems, where too many times they settle for FGs, instead on racking up TDs. They'll need to put up at least 40 points to hang the first loss of the season on these Saints. Thats' alot to ask, especially on the road. Nonetheless, I sense a lingering anger over the Indy loss...which might just be enough to get the Pats over the hump:
    PICK: Patriots;

    2.) Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+10.5):
    The Lions have major problems, as they may be without rookie QB Matthew Stafford, and star WR Calvin Johnson in this one. If thats' the case, they won't be able to  take advantage of an injury riddled Packers' secondary:
    PICK: Packers;

    3.) NY Giants @ Denver Broncos (+6.5):  Tough game to pick, as both teams are playing lousy. But, the wheels appear to have completely come off in Denver:
    PICK: Giants;

    4.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+3.5): I was actually prepared to pick the Texans to pull the upset, until I saw the Texans blow another one last Monday night. Somehow, someway, you just know that the Colts are going to find a way, and that the Texans will do what they do best...choke:
    PICK: Colts;

    5.) Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Despite their 7-3 record, as the Bengals showed last week in losing to the Raiders, they are not an elite team. Take the points:
    PICK: Browns;

    6.) Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: How many picks will Jay Cutler throw this week? Bears' coach Lovie Smith isn't getting much love from Chicago fans, or his players:
    PICK: Vikings;

    7.) Washington Redskins (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles:
    Lately, the 'Skins have shown a tendency to be able to hang around. The Westbrook-less Eagles are not the same team without him:
    PICK: Redskins;

    8.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3):
    The 'Fins must win this one to keep their playoff hopes alive. A 'Fins win, and a Pats' loss at New Orleans, sets up an AFC East showdown between the then 7-4 Pats, and the 6-5 Dolphins, for divisional supremacy:
    PICK: Dolphins;

    9.) Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (PK): Kurt Warner is still shaking off the cobwebs after getting dinged in the head last week. The Titans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, behind QB Vince Young:
    PICK: Titans;

    10.) Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3): Both teams are snake-bit by injuries. So, lets go with the home team:
    PICK: Rams;

    11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: This is a must win game for the free-falling Falcons:
    PICK: Falcons;

    12.) Carolina Panthers (+3) @ NY Jets: The Jets are in a tailspin. This will be a 1960's throwback game, with 3 yards and a cloud of astro-resin:
    PICK: Panthers;

    13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers: Somehow, someway, the Jaguars continue to find ways to win:
    PICK: Jaguars;

    14.) Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ San Diego Chargers: Having resurrected from the dead, the Chargers now appear to have a great shot at the second seed in the AFC:
    PICK: Chargers;

    15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: Though I realize that the Steelers have had their problems of late, but making them Dogs against the overrated Ravens seems silly. But, with Ben Roethlisburger a no go, its' doesn't seem so silly. Nonetheless, the Steelers badly need this game. I see their defense stepping up, and making this a low scoring, close game: 
    PICK: Steelers;

    16.) Oakland Raiders (+13.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Tough game to pick due to the huge spread. The Cowboys looked awful last week in barely getting by the Redskins...while the Raiders are coming off their best game of the season, a 20-17 upset win over the Bengals. Dallas has scored just 14 points in its' last two games. Still, these are the Raiders:
    PICK: Cowboys.

         BEST BETS: Chargers, Titans, and Dolphins.

         Thoughts?    

       

       

         

           

     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Is it me or are there more double digit lines this year?  Getting like college football.  Nice job with your picks all season.  Right on with Texans, I'd love to take them but they find a way to lose.  Going to be some ugly football Thanksgiving Day:  Culpepper and the Lions early and Raiders later, yuck. 

     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Heres' more on the Saints, including their updated injusy report: http://stats.walterfootball.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=walterfootball&page=nfl/teams/078/team.aspx?id=078
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

     A little trivia for the boys as we try to figure out the Pats/Saints matchup this Monday night.  What line was spoken in all of the Star Wars movies, each and every one of 'em??  Give up - I think it's appropriate for this game.  The line spoken in every Star Wars movie - "I've got a bad feeling about this".

     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Tex, I don’t know where you get your point spreads, but it’s a lot earlier than Yahoo odds.

    Last week I was 3-2 on the large picks and 0-1 on the small.  Just tempting enough to continue, to see if I can ever get any signal at all, even a weak signal.  Season:  15-15 on large games and 9-10 on small calls

    Week 12 calls:

    visitor / home  / my point spread  / vegas point spread  /  discrepancy  / any comments

    gb     det      -6.8   -11            4.2  large for Detroit to keep it close

    nyg       den        0.5     -6.5            7.0  large for Denver to win. 

    sea       stl         1.0      -3            4.0 large for St. Louis to actually win

    az         ten      -6.3       0            -6.3 large for Arizona to win.  Note:  Tennessee has been frying my system all season ever since their 59-point felony (they just played the wrong team that day), but let’s see what happens one more time.  The other 31 teams have all been behaving pretty nicely.

    ne         no         -1.7      3            -4.7 large for New England to win.  On top of these numbers, I might add that Sammy Morris is coming back next Monday, so is Steve Neal, and Matt Light is ready to challenge Sea Bass.  Also, BB is a slightly better strategist when he gets an extra day to work.  My stats are blind to this information.

    car       nyj            5.9      3            2.9  small for the Jets to beat the spread

    chi        min          12.6     10.5            2.1  small for Minnesota to beat the spread

     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     The "Game of the Week" in week 12 is of course The Patriots @ New Orleans Saints. Though it won't top the Indy game in significance, it represents the last regular season chance for the Patriots to show the football world that they are indeed an elite team...and a prime threat to win a SB. Due to the significance of the upcoming Saints game, as I did with the Indy game, I will break down what I believe to be the key match-ups in this game:      1.) Saints' DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant v. Pats' OTs: The Saints have much in common with our good bud, the Indianapolis Colts, on both offense and defense. like Indy, the Saints boast two good DEs, in Will Smith and Charles Grant...who have combined for 13 sacks this season. The pressure they apply on pass plays is one of the main reasons why the Saints' "D" has intercepted 20 passes, 14 fumble recoveries, and scored 7 TDs, thus far this season. Nick Kaczur got abused in Indy by Robert Mathis. He must perform better Monday night. ADVANTAGE: Saints;      2.) Saints Secondary V. Tom Brady: If the Pats are able to contain the Saints' DEs, look for Tom Brady to have a field day against a bruised up Saints' secondary. Their group is led by ball-hawking safety Darren Sharper, who already has amassed 7 interceptions. But, the Saints starting CBs, Jabari Greer (groin) and Tracy Porter (knee), will likely miss this game due to injury. Furthermore, their nickel back, ex-Patriot Randal Gay, also may miss Monday's battle due to a hamstring injury. Rookie CB, and Saints' #1 pick Malcolm Jenkins must step-up big time at CB. ADVATAGE: Patriots;      3.) Saints Receivers v. Pats' Secondary: WR Marques Colston is the Saints' answer to Randy Moss. The Pats' secondary must not allow Colston to get behind them. The other receiver demanding attention is slot-receiver Lance Moore (the Saints' Wes Welker). When healthy, Moore made the Saints' offense purr. The recent offensive drop-off is a direct result of Moore suffering an ankle injury. Though he has missed three straight games, I wouldn't be surprised to see him suit up Monday: ADVANTAGE: Saints ;      4.) The Running Games: The Saints have been somewhat vulnerable against the run. Though thats' not what the Patriots do best, Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk should be able to easily combine for over 100 yards rushing. Reggie Bush is dinged up, but should play. But, Bush is more of a receiving than a running threat in the Saints' offense. RB Pierre Thomas is having a Joseph Addai type impact on the Saints' offense: ADVANTAGE: Saints;       5.) Coaches: Though Sean Payton has done a terrific job with the Saints offense, and his DC, Mike Williams, has transformed a former lethargic "D"  into a ball-hawking, aggressive lot, BB remains the best coach in the game: ADVANTAGE: Patriots;       That said, here are my picks: 1.) New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: As I mentioned above, these Saints are similar to the current Indianapolis Colts on defense, and the 2007 Patriots on offense. They are averaging nearly 37 points per game. Beating them will require a turnover free, rousing 60 minute performance, on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, the Patriots' have shown a tendency to play 48 minute games, with their defense unable to stop opposing offenses in the closing minutes of games. They have also had redzone problems, where too many times they settle for FGs, instead on racking up TDs. They'll need to put up at least 40 points to hang the first loss of the season on these Saints. Thats' alot to ask, especially on the road. Nonetheless, I sense a lingering anger over the Indy loss...which might just be enough to get the Pats over the hump: PICK: Patriots; 2.) Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+10.5): The Lions have major problems, as they may be without rookie QB Matthew Stafford, and star WR Calvin Johnson in this one. If thats' the case, they won't be able to  take advantage of an injury riddled Packers' secondary: PICK: Packers; 3.) NY Giants @ Denver Broncos (+6.5):  Tough game to pick, as both teams are playing lousy. But, the wheels appear to have completely come off in Denver: PICK: Giants; 4.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+3.5):  I was actually prepared to pick the Texans to pull the upset, until I saw the Texans blow another one last Monday night. Somehow, someway, you just know that the Colts are going to find a way, and that the Texans will do what they do best...choke: PICK: Colts; 5.) Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Despite their 7-3 record, as the Bengals showed last week in losing to the Raiders, they are not an elite team. Take the points: PICK: Browns; 6.) Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: How many picks will Jay Cutler throw this week? Bears' coach Lovie Smith isn't getting much love from Chicago fans, or his players: PICK: Vikings; 7.) Washington Redskins (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Lately, the 'Skins have shown a tendency to be able to hang around. The Westbrook-less Eagles are not the same team without him: PICK: Redskins; 8.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): The 'Fins must win this one to keep their playoff hopes alive. A 'Fins win, and a Pats' loss at New Orleans, sets up an AFC East showdown between the then 7-4 Pats, and the 6-5 Dolphins, for divisional supremacy: PICK: Dolphins; 9.) Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (PK): Kurt Warner is still shaking off the cobwebs after getting dinged in the head last week. The Titans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, behind QB Vince Young: PICK: Titans; 10.) Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3): Both teams are snake-bit by injuries. So, lets go with the home team: PICK: Rams; 11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: This is a must win game for the free-falling Falcons: PICK: Falcons; 12.) Carolina Panthers (+3) @ NY Jets: The Jets are in a tailspin. This will be a 1960's throwback game, with 3 yards and a cloud of astro-resin: PICK: Panthers; 13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers: Somehow, someway, the Jaguars continue to find ways to win: PICK: Jaguars; 14.) Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ San Diego Chargers: Having resurrected from the dead, the Chargers now appear to have a great shot at the second seed in the AFC: PICK: Chargers; 15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens: Though I realize that the Steelers have had their problems of late, but making them Dogs against the overrated Ravens seems silly: PICK: Steelers; 16.) Oakland Raiders (+13.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Tough game to pick due to the huge spread. The Cowboys looked awful last week in barely getting by the Redskins...while the Raiders are coming off their best game of the season, a 20-17 upset win over the Bengals. Dallas has scored just 14 points in its' last two games. Still, these are the Raiders: PICK: Cowboys.      BEST BETS: Steelers, Chargers, Titans, and Dolphins.      Thoughts?                          
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    I see the comparison you are tryin to make between the Saints D and the colts D, because each team has 2 stud defensive ends. However, i see the saints defense bringing a lot more blitz packages than the colts defense. The saints dont rely on the front 4 to pass rush as much as the colts do, so i think its goin to come down to blitz pick-up, if our o-line does well we should have a big game.
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     The "Game of the Week" in week 12 is of course The Patriots @ New Orleans Saints. Though it won't top the Indy game in significance, it represents the last regular season chance for the Patriots to show the football world that they are indeed an elite team...and a prime threat to win a SB. Due to the significance of the upcoming Saints game, as I did with the Indy game, I will break down what I believe to be the key match-ups in this game:      1.) Saints' DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant v. Pats' OTs: The Saints have much in common with our good bud, the Indianapolis Colts, on both offense and defense. like Indy, the Saints boast two good DEs, in Will Smith and Charles Grant...who have combined for 13 sacks this season. The pressure they apply on pass plays is one of the main reasons why the Saints' "D" has intercepted 20 passes, 14 fumble recoveries, and scored 7 TDs, thus far this season. Nick Kaczur got abused in Indy by Robert Mathis. He must perform better Monday night. ADVANTAGE: Saints;      2.) Saints Secondary V. Tom Brady: If the Pats are able to contain the Saints' DEs, look for Tom Brady to have a field day against a bruised up Saints' secondary. Their group is led by ball-hawking safety Darren Sharper, who already has amassed 7 interceptions. But, the Saints starting CBs, Jabari Greer (groin) and Tracy Porter (knee), will likely miss this game due to injury. Furthermore, their nickel back, ex-Patriot Randal Gay, also may miss Monday's battle due to a hamstring injury. Rookie CB, and Saints' #1 pick Malcolm Jenkins must step-up big time at CB. ADVATAGE: Patriots;      3.) Saints Receivers v. Pats' Secondary: WR Marques Colston is the Saints' answer to Randy Moss. The Pats' secondary must not allow Colston to get behind them. The other receiver demanding attention is slot-receiver Lance Moore (the Saints' Wes Welker). When healthy, Moore made the Saints' offense purr. The recent offensive drop-off is a direct result of Moore suffering an ankle injury. Though he has missed three straight games, I wouldn't be surprised to see him suit up Monday: ADVANTAGE: Saints ;      4.) The Running Games: The Saints have been somewhat vulnerable against the run. Though thats' not what the Patriots do best, Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk should be able to easily combine for over 100 yards rushing. Reggie Bush is dinged up, but should play. But, Bush is more of a receiving than a running threat in the Saints' offense. RB Pierre Thomas is having a Joseph Addai type impact on the Saints' offense: ADVANTAGE: Saints;       5.) Coaches: Though Sean Payton has done a terrific job with the Saints offense, and his DC, Mike Williams, has transformed a former lethargic "D"  into a ball-hawking, aggressive lot, BB remains the best coach in the game: ADVANTAGE: Patriots;       That said, here are my picks: 1.) New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: As I mentioned above, these Saints are similar to the current Indianapolis Colts on defense, and the 2007 Patriots on offense. They are averaging nearly 37 points per game. Beating them will require a turnover free, rousing 60 minute performance, on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, the Patriots' have shown a tendency to play 48 minute games, with their defense unable to stop opposing offenses in the closing minutes of games. They have also had redzone problems, where too many times they settle for FGs, instead on racking up TDs. They'll need to put up at least 40 points to hang the first loss of the season on these Saints. Thats' alot to ask, especially on the road. Nonetheless, I sense a lingering anger over the Indy loss...which might just be enough to get the Pats over the hump: PICK: Patriots; 2.) Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+10.5): The Lions have major problems, as they may be without rookie QB Matthew Stafford, and star WR Calvin Johnson in this one. If thats' the case, they won't be able to  take advantage of an injury riddled Packers' secondary: PICK: Packers; 3.) NY Giants @ Denver Broncos (+6.5):  Tough game to pick, as both teams are playing lousy. But, the wheels appear to have completely come off in Denver: PICK: Giants; 4.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+3.5):  I was actually prepared to pick the Texans to pull the upset, until I saw the Texans blow another one last Monday night. Somehow, someway, you just know that the Colts are going to find a way, and that the Texans will do what they do best...choke: PICK: Colts; 5.) Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Despite their 7-3 record, as the Bengals showed last week in losing to the Raiders, they are not an elite team. Take the points: PICK: Browns; 6.) Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: How many picks will Jay Cutler throw this week? Bears' coach Lovie Smith isn't getting much love from Chicago fans, or his players: PICK: Vikings; 7.) Washington Redskins (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Lately, the 'Skins have shown a tendency to be able to hang around. The Westbrook-less Eagles are not the same team without him: PICK: Redskins; 8.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): The 'Fins must win this one to keep their playoff hopes alive. A 'Fins win, and a Pats' loss at New Orleans, sets up an AFC East showdown between the then 7-4 Pats, and the 6-5 Dolphins, for divisional supremacy: PICK: Dolphins; 9.) Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (PK): Kurt Warner is still shaking off the cobwebs after getting dinged in the head last week. The Titans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, behind QB Vince Young: PICK: Titans; 10.) Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3): Both teams are snake-bit by injuries. So, lets go with the home team: PICK: Rams; 11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: This is a must win game for the free-falling Falcons: PICK: Falcons; 12.) Carolina Panthers (+3) @ NY Jets: The Jets are in a tailspin. This will be a 1960's throwback game, with 3 yards and a cloud of astro-resin: PICK: Panthers; 13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers: Somehow, someway, the Jaguars continue to find ways to win: PICK: Jaguars; 14.) Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ San Diego Chargers: Having resurrected from the dead, the Chargers now appear to have a great shot at the second seed in the AFC: PICK: Chargers; 15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens: Though I realize that the Steelers have had their problems of late, but making them Dogs against the overrated Ravens seems silly: PICK: Steelers; 16.) Oakland Raiders (+13.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Tough game to pick due to the huge spread. The Cowboys looked awful last week in barely getting by the Redskins...while the Raiders are coming off their best game of the season, a 20-17 upset win over the Bengals. Dallas has scored just 14 points in its' last two games. Still, these are the Raiders: PICK: Cowboys.      BEST BETS: Steelers, Chargers, Titans, and Dolphins.      Thoughts?                          
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]


    1.)    New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: Nobody beats the Saints on the bayou in the regular season, although if anybody on New Orleans home game opponent list will do it, it’ll be the Pats. Drew Brees was traded from SD because of his propensity to get happy feet and not protect the ball in big games. The Pats are a top 5 team IMO, right at 5 actually. Not enough against #2 PICK: Saints;

    2.) Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+10.5): The Pack should cover this one. The key against GB is pass rush. Outside of Julian Peterson, DET has no pass rush though PICK: Packers;

    3.) NY Giants @ Denver Broncos (+6.5):  Jints by 10, Josh needs to shut up with opposing players instead inspiring them. PICK: Giants;

    4.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+3.5): Have to be able to score when playing the Colts, therefore……….
    PICK: Colts;

    5.) Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Mangini is a human stress ball PICK: Bengals;

    6.) Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: Cutler is the most overrated QB in the NFL over the past 20 years. The boo’s keep getting louder in Chicago PICK: Vikings;

    7.) Washington Redskins (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Agreed TEX, I’ll take the skins as well.

    PICK: Redskins;

    8.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): Last season’s AFC EAST champs are not packing it in. Ricky gets over a buck in a win.

    PICK: Dolphins;

    9.) Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (PK): Steak ends PICK: Cards;

    10.) Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3): home team PICK: Rams;

    11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: Too many points PICK: Bucs;

    12.) Carolina Panthers (+3) @ NY Jets: Panthers are better then they appear, the Jets are worse than they appear PICK: Panthers;

    13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers: JAX out west, nope!
    PICK: 9ers;

    14.) Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ San Diego Chargers: Best team in the NFL right now continues to roll.  PICK: Chargers;

    15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens: Steelers playing mad, @home, needing a win? PICK: Steelers;

    16.) Oakland Raiders (+13.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Call me crazy… but I think the Raiders will cover this one………………..barely PICK: Raiders.


    BEST BETS:Steelers, Cards
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : I see the comparison you are tryin to make between the Saints D and the colts D, because each team has 2 stud defensive ends. However, i see the saints defense bringing a lot more blitz packages than the colts defense. The saints dont rely on the front 4 to pass rush as much as the colts do, so i think its goin to come down to blitz pick-up, if our o-line does well we should have a big game.
    Posted by Patsfan24-7[/QUOTE]

    Also add to that fact that Freeney was totally ineffective due to injury.  The Saints have a Pro Bowl caliber nose tackle in Sedrick Ellis in addtion to Grant and Smith.  A much more impressive front that that of the Colts.  The Saints will also be bringing an array of blitz packages that could bring any one or two of the back seven, or eight if shifted into their 3-4 alignment.  Oh, and the DC of the Saints is the very accomplished Gregg Williams, not Mike Williams.
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    ATS Picks

    GB -9.5 (Stafford Hurt, GB Needs the Win)
    Oakland +13.5 (Too large of a Spread and Dallas not playing that well)
    Giants -6.5 (Denver in a tail-spin)
    TB +11.5 (Too Much of a spread, I see a 7-10 point Atl Win)
    Miami -2.5 (Miami should EASILY COVER - This is one of my BEST BETS)
    Cinci -13.5 (Cinci upset after last week and CLE sux)
    Hous +3.5 (Houston keeps it close)
    Minny -9.5 (Chicago Horrible, In Dome Favre has a field day)
    JETS -2.5 (Jets have a good D, DelHomme will have a rough day)
    Philly -8.5 (Philly covered 10.5 points in Washington, this should be easier)
    Stl +2.5 (Home Team)
    Arizona +2.5 (Must Win for Arizona, Not sure about this one, Coin flip)
    SD + 13.5 (SD, hottest team in NFL)
    Jax +3.5 (Close Game, JAx Covers)
    Pitts +2.5 (Pitts usually doninates Baltimore, As long as Roth Plays)
    NO -2.5 (As much as my heart says NE, my mind says NO covers at home and too much firepower)


     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]love your logic and efforts there. will agree with u with the pats. don't forget gregg williams was the stud defensive coordinator with the redskins and coach in waiting when BB showed the blueprint on how to torch him in THE beatdown of the 2007 year of beatdowns! we've been there and done that.. we have seen that movie before. in many ways, our offense is even better. do not discount that both morris and taylor could see action at RB in this game!i
     
    RESPONSE: I see Morris as a week away...and believe that the Pats goal is to get Fred Taylor ready to roll for the playoffs. If Fred's 100% by then, he could be the Pats' ace in the hole; 

    also expect to see shawn springs due to his familiarity with the Saints from his 'skins days. also as a reward by BB for his work on the scout team exposing flaws in Williams' schemes.
     
    RESPONSE: Springs might see some action covering Marques Colston. He has a history of being fairly successful against tall WRs; 

    Matt light and Neal should be back, moving vollmer bak to the bench with lavoir, to further strengthen that area.
     
    RESPONSE: Not sure that I'd want to see Vollmer sit. He may currently be the Pats' best OT.  

    2. i believe the jets with their home advantage and carolina's schizo approach and delhomme's inability to react to a ryan-type defense will be the panthers' doom. plus, d'angelo williams is not in full health.
     
    RESPONSE: Could be...but the Jets are a mess. Don't know how the team will react to the Kerry Rhodes' scapegoating, when its' clear that the guy thats' killing them the most lately is their rookie QB, Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is currently as good a bet to throw a pick as DelHomme. I like the Carolina running game against the Kris Jenkins-less Jets' front 7. 

    3. RAVENS should prevail. no polamolu. this is like their SB, after what happened last year. i live in baltimore and these guys dont want to lose again to the steelers. these fans will be rocking and this is the BEST opportunity to knock these steelers off. they almost beat indy, remember? they can easily stop pitts' rushg attack, i dont c how pitt stop theirs and as you know EVERYONE scores a special team TD against the steels! raves RBs are better, they are healthier, hungrier, playing at home, and will SCORE in the red zone this week!

    RESPONSE: The Steelers are now 6-4...and are in danger of falling out of the playoff picture with another loss. The Ravens' defense is not the fearsome force that it once was. Their best pass-rusher, Terrell Suggs, will likely miss this game. Their best CB, Fabian Washington, is out...and NT/DE Haloti Ngata is playing hurt.    

    4. BROWNS will lose and not cover. bengs are bringing in their A game. for same reason i dismiss the offensive results of lions last week, ditto with quinn and browns. they are what they are. was game of equally matched losers. they are not going to transform to big-boy winners overnight.
     
    RESPONSE: Do the Bengals have an "A" game? I don't see them as an elite team, regardless of their record. They clearly miss injured RB Cedric Benson. The Bengals should win, but I like the Browns to cover; 

    5. ZONA will pull it off in a squeaker. u may just not grasp how great they are playg this year esp on the road. they are 5-0 so far, and kurt will be fine. had they not been leadg by a ton last week, he would have come bak in. next week's game with Favre-Minnny will be must-watch TV!
     
    RESPONSE: This is not the same Titans' team that the Patriots' destroyed in the snow in Foxborough. CB Courtland Finnegan is back, and playing at a high level once again. RB Chris Johnson, with all due respect to Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, appears to be the best RB in the NFL. Vince Young has brought back excitement and pizazz to the formerly staid Titans' offense.  

    6. SEATTLE  will destroy the Rams and easily cover. marc bulger is going to be the startg qb! enough said! perhaps if his hotty galpal, carrie prejean, can show up and do her distraction-masturbationn video thing as the game is being played, they would have a shot. otherwise, not so much!

    RESPONSE: Marc Bulger is out with a fractured shin-bone (man...it hurts just saying that!) Kyle Boller takes over. Though Kyle won't bring back memories of Bart Starr, I see him as an improvement over the overpaid, aging Bulger. Rams' RB Stephen Jackson is having a pro-bowl season, despite playing on a one win team.

    Posted by bubbakilla[/QUOTE]

         Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours, Bubba!
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from patriots44. Show patriots44's posts

    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     The "Game of the Week" in week 12 is of course The Patriots @ New Orleans Saints. Though it won't top the Indy game in significance, it represents the last regular season chance for the Patriots to show the football world that they are indeed an elite team...and a prime threat to win a SB. Due to the significance of the upcoming Saints game, as I did with the Indy game, I will break down what I believe to be the key match-ups in this game:      1.) Saints' DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant v. Pats' OTs: The Saints have much in common with our good bud, the Indianapolis Colts, on both offense and defense. like Indy, the Saints boast two good DEs, in Will Smith and Charles Grant...who have combined for 13 sacks this season. The pressure they apply on pass plays is one of the main reasons why the Saints' "D" has intercepted 20 passes, 14 fumble recoveries, and scored 7 TDs, thus far this season. Nick Kaczur got abused in Indy by Robert Mathis. He must perform better Monday night. ADVANTAGE: Saints;      2.) Saints Secondary V. Tom Brady: If the Pats are able to contain the Saints' DEs, look for Tom Brady to have a field day against a bruised up Saints' secondary. Their group is led by ball-hawking safety Darren Sharper, who already has amassed 7 interceptions. But, the Saints starting CBs, Jabari Greer (groin) and Tracy Porter (knee), will likely miss this game due to injury. Furthermore, their nickel back, ex-Patriot Randal Gay, also may miss Monday's battle due to a hamstring injury. Rookie CB, and Saints' #1 pick Malcolm Jenkins must step-up big time at CB. ADVATAGE: Patriots;      3.) Saints Receivers v. Pats' Secondary: WR Marques Colston is the Saints' answer to Randy Moss. The Pats' secondary must not allow Colston to get behind them. The other receiver demanding attention is slot-receiver Lance Moore (the Saints' Wes Welker). When healthy, Moore made the Saints' offense purr. The recent offensive drop-off is a direct result of Moore suffering an ankle injury. Though he has missed three straight games, I wouldn't be surprised to see him suit up Monday: ADVANTAGE: Saints ;      4.) The Running Games: The Saints have been somewhat vulnerable against the run. Though thats' not what the Patriots do best, Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk should be able to easily combine for over 100 yards rushing. Reggie Bush is dinged up, but should play. But, Bush is more of a receiving than a running threat in the Saints' offense. RB Pierre Thomas is having a Joseph Addai type impact on the Saints' offense: ADVANTAGE: Saints;       5.) Coaches: Though Sean Payton has done a terrific job with the Saints offense, and his DC, Greg Williams, has transformed a former lethargic "D"  into a ball-hawking, aggressive lot, BB remains the best coach in the game: ADVANTAGE: Patriots;       That said, here are my picks: 1.) New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: As I mentioned above, these Saints are similar to the current Indianapolis Colts on defense, and the 2007 Patriots on offense. They are averaging nearly 37 points per game. Beating them will require a turnover free, rousing 60 minute performance, on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, the Patriots' have shown a tendency to play 48 minute games, with their defense unable to stop opposing offenses in the closing minutes of games. They have also had redzone problems, where too many times they settle for FGs, instead on racking up TDs. They'll need to put up at least 40 points to hang the first loss of the season on these Saints. Thats' alot to ask, especially on the road. Nonetheless, I sense a lingering anger over the Indy loss...which might just be enough to get the Pats over the hump: PICK: Patriots; 2.) Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+10.5): The Lions have major problems, as they may be without rookie QB Matthew Stafford, and star WR Calvin Johnson in this one. If thats' the case, they won't be able to  take advantage of an injury riddled Packers' secondary: PICK: Packers; 3.) NY Giants @ Denver Broncos (+6.5):  Tough game to pick, as both teams are playing lousy. But, the wheels appear to have completely come off in Denver: PICK: Giants; 4.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+3.5):  I was actually prepared to pick the Texans to pull the upset, until I saw the Texans blow another one last Monday night. Somehow, someway, you just know that the Colts are going to find a way, and that the Texans will do what they do best...choke: PICK: Colts; 5.) Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Despite their 7-3 record, as the Bengals showed last week in losing to the Raiders, they are not an elite team. Take the points: PICK: Browns; 6.) Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: How many picks will Jay Cutler throw this week? Bears' coach Lovie Smith isn't getting much love from Chicago fans, or his players: PICK: Vikings; 7.) Washington Redskins (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Lately, the 'Skins have shown a tendency to be able to hang around. The Westbrook-less Eagles are not the same team without him: PICK: Redskins; 8.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): The 'Fins must win this one to keep their playoff hopes alive. A 'Fins win, and a Pats' loss at New Orleans, sets up an AFC East showdown between the then 7-4 Pats, and the 6-5 Dolphins, for divisional supremacy: PICK: Dolphins; 9.) Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (PK): Kurt Warner is still shaking off the cobwebs after getting dinged in the head last week. The Titans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, behind QB Vince Young: PICK: Titans; 10.) Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3): Both teams are snake-bit by injuries. So, lets go with the home team: PICK: Rams; 11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: This is a must win game for the free-falling Falcons: PICK: Falcons; 12.) Carolina Panthers (+3) @ NY Jets: The Jets are in a tailspin. This will be a 1960's throwback game, with 3 yards and a cloud of astro-resin: PICK: Panthers; 13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers: Somehow, someway, the Jaguars continue to find ways to win: PICK: Jaguars; 14.) Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ San Diego Chargers: Having resurrected from the dead, the Chargers now appear to have a great shot at the second seed in the AFC: PICK: Chargers; 15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens: Though I realize that the Steelers have had their problems of late, but making them Dogs against the overrated Ravens seems silly: PICK: Steelers; 16.) Oakland Raiders (+13.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Tough game to pick due to the huge spread. The Cowboys looked awful last week in barely getting by the Redskins...while the Raiders are coming off their best game of the season, a 20-17 upset win over the Bengals. Dallas has scored just 14 points in its' last two games. Still, these are the Raiders: PICK: Cowboys.      BEST BETS: Steelers, Chargers, Titans, and Dolphins.      Thoughts?                          
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]I like the Miami Bet as a lock. I also like the Ravens this week against the Steelers
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         As someone has posted, the Patriots have been outscored in "true" road games (against the Jets, Broncos and Colts), 50-10 in the second half of those games. I'm sure that BB has drilled that into his team...and that the Pats will respond with a good 60 minute game on Monday night. The Indy loss is still eating at the Patriots. The residual anger over that loss should be enough to get them over the hump in New Orleans: http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/6930/home-teams-throttling-pats-after-halftime
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Its' "all hands on deck" for both teams, when the Pats meet the Saints: http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2009/11/new_orleans_saints_and_new_eng.html
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Saints DC Gregg Williams says that despite injuries in his secondary, the Saints will remain aggressive on defense (in other words, lots of blitzes): http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/11/28/gregg-williams-says-his-defense-wont-change-against-pats-despite-injuries/
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Big Ben out for Sunday's game with the Ravens, due to reprecussions from a  concussion. Dennis Dixon will make his first start against the Ravens: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/11/28/glazer-roethlisberger-out-with-concussion/.

         This will cause me to revise my prediction on the Steelers/Ravens game. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Pats' injury list continues to grow (dammit!!)...as OTs Nick Kaczur (ankle) and Sebastien Vollmer (concussion) are said to be hurting: http://www.projo.com/patriots/content/sp_fbn_pats_journal_28_11-28-09_F8GK0LA_v3.2e5ed8f.html
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]love your logic and efforts there. will agree with u with the pats. don't forget gregg williams was the stud defensive coordinator with the redskins and coach in waiting when BB showed the blueprint on how to torch him in THE beatdown of the 2007 year of beatdowns! we've been there and done that.. we have seen that movie before. in many ways, our offense is even better. do not discount that both morris and taylor could see action at RB in this game!i also expect to see shawn springs due to his familiarity with the Saints from his 'skins days. also as a reward by BB for his work on the scout team exposing flaws in Williams' schemes. Matt light and Neal should be back, moving vollmer bak to the bench with lavoir, to further strengthen that area. this is the HEALTHIEST we have been in a while! 2. i believe the jets with their home advantage and carolina's schizo approach and delhomme's inability to react to a ryan-type defense will be the panthers' doom. plus, d'angelo williams is not in full health. 3. RAVENS should prevail. no polamolu. this is like their SB, after what happened last year. i live in baltimore and these guys dont want to lose again to the steelers. these fans will be rocking and this is the BEST opportunity to knock these steelers off. they almost beat indy, remember? they can easily stop pitts' rushg attack, i dont c how pitt stop theirs and as you know EVERYONE scores a special team TD against the steels! raves RBs are better, they are healthier, hungrier, playing at home, and will SCORE in the red zone this week! 4. BROWNS will lose and not cover. bengs are bringing in their A game. for same reason i dismiss the offensive results of lions last week, ditto with quinn and browns. they are what they are. was game of equally matched losers. they are not going to transform to big-boy winners overnight. 5. ZONA will pull it off in a squeaker. u may just not grasp how great they are playg this year esp on the road. they are 5-0 so far, and kurt will be fine. had they not been leadg by a ton last week, he would have come bak in. next week's game with Favre-Minnny will be must-watch TV! 6. SEATTLE  will destroy the Rams and easily cover. marc bulger is going to be the startg qb! enough said! perhaps if his hotty galpal, carrie prejean, can show up and do her distraction-masturbationn video thing as the game is being played, they would have a shot. otherwise, not so much!
    Posted by bubbakilla[/QUOTE]

    So you pick the Jets to win?  What else about the Jets do you like, bubbakilla, if that is your real name ... reg22 ... Leon!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         More on the Pats' growing injury list. The Pats have listed 21 out of their 53 man roster on the list, with 17 players listed as "questionable". This succks!!!: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/11/28/patriots-list-21-players-on-injury-report/
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Dwight Freeney will miss the upcoming Texans' game with some sort of abdominal injury: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4696309 

         Its' hard picking NFL games against the spread...even worse when you consider that the oddsmakers have inside information as to which players are actually hurt...and the severity of their injuries.  
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Here are the Cold, Hard, Football Facts picks. Among them, they pick the Saints to edge the Pats, 31-30: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2995_Real_and_spectacular_%28and_belated%29_Week_12_picks.html.

          
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mosseffect43. Show mosseffect43's posts

    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    the pats need to win this game for many reasons.no matter how many games they lead in there division.
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]the pats need to win this game for many reasons.no matter how many games they lead in there division.
    Posted by mosseffect43[/QUOTE]

    Agreed, that is what makes this game so important.  The Saints also need to win this game.  Home field advantage throughout the playoffs would be a huge plus for the Saints.  The Vikes are facing a remaining schedule that they can clearly run.

    The hype of this game goes beyond the fact that the Pats are the opponent. 
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    The Pats need to win to show they can beat a good team this year, and the Saints need to win to show they can beat a good team this decade.


     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Jim Donaldson on the Providence Journal says that theres' no way that the Patriots can beat the Saints. Frankly, all the injuries on the Pats' OL concern me. Still, I believe that somehow, the Pats will find a way to come out on top: http://www.projo.com/patriots/content/sp_fbn_jim_donaldson29_11-29-09_54GK76L_v2.29377de.html
     
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    Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    One sided arguments like the one in the Projo drive me nuts!

    NO has given up more points than the Pats, and if we go by Jim Donalson's only argument, the only "top-quality" QB they NO has faced is Eli Manning (and that is me being generous)! So if according to him the Pats will lose b/c the only good QB they have faced in Peyton Manning, then the same argument can be made that the Saints have not faced one good QB and they have given up more points...aarrrrrrgh

    Yes, I am concerned about our injuries, and this is definately a game that concerns me, but shouldn't writer present both sides of the argument? If you are going to dismiss the Patriots defense b/c they have not face top-quality QBs, then what does that say about the NO defense? NE is ranked 2nd in points allowed, NO 13th, so by his own arguments, NE should win, not lose!
     
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