You are right about the stats don't lie. But Sanchez will have a cold day at the Foxborough on this monday night. The Pat will win in the old fashion way.
Pats 24 Jets 13.
Every week, there are usually two or three games that vie for the title of, "Game of the Week". Not so in Week 13...with the Patriots and the Green Goblins set to square off a week from tonight, in Foxboro. Referring to Jets game as the "Game of the Week" is really a misnomer. To paraphrase Goblins' coach, Rex Ryan....this is the marquee game of the season. The NY Post referred to it as much more than a game...but rather as a holy war between the teams, and fans of their respective communities. So, without further ado, let's get to the the "Game of the Week/Year...Jihad": 1.) (9-2) New York Jets (+3.5) @ (9-2) New England Patriots: I can remember my statistics professor saying, "Statistics don't lie...and sooner or later, the laws of probability will be served." Thus far, the Patriots have violated the stat laws. They are first in the league in scoring, averaging over 30 points per game. Yet, they rank a pedestrian 16th in run offense, and 12th in passing. The Patriots share the AFC's best record with the Goblins. Yet, defensively, they rank 16th against the run, and dead last against the pass. The Jets currently boast the 4th best defense in the league, holding opponents to just 17 points per game. Their "D" ranks 4th against the run, and 12th against the pass. On offense, they are 2nd in run offense, and 19th in passing. These stats, and an objective look at each roster, seem to indicate that the Jets are as good as, or better than the Patriots, at every position but QB. But, as I stated during the pre-season, the Jets will only go as far as QB Mark Sanchez can take them. No Brady, he...but he has shown an uncanny, annoying penchant for leading his team from behind, in the closing minutes of games. The Patriots' season rests on the outcome of this game. Win it, and they most likely win their division, earn a playoff bye, and home field advantage throughout the play-offs. Lose it, and they'll be doomed to being nothing more than playoff fodder. Percentages, odds, and statistics dictate that the Jets win this game. But, as we know, probability and stats can run hay-wire on any given Sunday, especially when Tom Brady and BB are involved. Frankly, I can't see the Patriots "D" containing the Goblin running game, and, with all due apologies to Devin McCourty, successfully match-up with Jets' WRs Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards...not to mention TE Dustin Keller, and LT, swinging out of the backfield. Percentages, odds, and stats are cold, hard things. It's not the way you should act, or feel. But, it is the way to bet, especially with a 3.5 point spread: PICK: Jets...and I'd especially welcome posts from those of you who think I'm wrong, explaining why you think that the Pats will win; 2.) (5-6) Houston Texans (+9) @ (7-4) Philadelphia Eagles: The good news for the Texans is that their star WR, Andre Johnson, escaped suspension, despite going Mike Tyson on the itch known as Cortland Finnegan. The bad news is their awful defense won't be dealing with the likes of Florida Atlantic product, "Trusty" Rusty Smith, at QB, this week. Nonetheless, a nine (9) point spread seems a tad too generous: PICK: Texans; 3.) (2-9) Buffalo Bills (+6.5) @ (4-7) Minnesota Vikings: The Bills managed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory again last week, against the Steelers. Buffalo WRs Stevie Johnson and Lee Evans each dropped passes in OT that would have secured a Bills win. It was the third OT loss for Buffalo this year. But, Bills' head coach Chan Gailey has his team playing about as well as it can, week after week. Though the Vikings managed to eek past the Redskins last Sunday, they didn't appear to be that jazzed, under the direction of interim head coach, Leslie Frazier. Losing star RB Adrian Peterson due to an ankle injury didn't help the cause, either. His availability for this game has yet to be determined: PICK: Bills; 4.) (4-7) Cleveland Browns (+4.5) @ (6-5) Miami Dolphins: Jake Delhomme did everything in his power to gift wrap a victory for his former team, by tossing two interceptions, including a pick-6, in Cleveland's extremely unimpressive 24-23 home win, over the woeful Panthers. Not surprisingly, Browns' coach Eric Mangini has refused to commit to Jake as his starting QB for this game. Though Delhomme was awful, RB Peyton Hillis continued his stellar play, as he rushed for 131 yards on 26 carries, and scored three (3) TDs. He also hauled in six (6) passes, for an additional 63 yards. Meanwhile, the "Fins turned in perhaps their best game of the season, in their 33-17 drubbing of the Raiders, in Oakland. RBs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown rushed for a combined 180 yards, and QB Chad Henne regained his mojo, passing for 307 yards, and a pair of TDs. The "shiny hood ornament" theory ( http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3366_CHFF_puts_its_own_%27hood_ornament%27_theory_to_the_test.html
) appears to once again hold true, as the 'Fins came up with this offensive explosion without their grossly overpaid WR, Brandon Marshall. Assuming that Jake Delhomme starts: PICK: Dolphins; 5.) (6-5) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ (5-6) Tennessee Titans: Titans' rookie QB, Rusty Smith, was so bad last week against the Texans (27.6 passing rating), that Tennessee coach, Jeff Fisher is considering rushing back injured QB Kerry Collins (calf injury). The Jaguars are still kicking themselves for blowing a golden opportunity to take control of the rather weak AFC South last week. They blew an 11 point 4th quarter lead to the Giants at the Meadowlands. Jags QB, David Gerrard, who injured his wrist during the Jags' last gasp final drive, should be ready to go: PICK: Jaguars; 6.) (3-8) Denver Broncos (+8) @ (7-4) Kansas City Chiefs: When these teams met three weeks ago in Denver, the Broncos smoked the Chiefs, 49-29. At the end of that game, Chiefs' coach Todd Haley was screaming at Broncos' head man, Josh McDaniels, accusing him of running up the score. Could be the other way around, this weekend...as Matt Cassel is on a roll: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/chiefs/
PICK: Chiefs; 7.) (5-6) Washington Redskins (+7) @ (7-4) New York Giants: Multiple injuries on their OL and at WR have left the Giants a shadow of what they once were, several weeks ago. The G-men were extremely lucky to escape with a win over the Jaguars last weekend. They may not be as fortunate this coming Sunday, as the Redskins will give them all they can handle: PICK: Redskins; 8.) (8-3) Chicago Bears @ (2-9) Detroit Lions (+3.5): On opening day, the Bears stole one from the Lions, when the refs took away what should have been a last second TD grab by Detroit's star WR, Calvin Johnson. What a difference a few months makes, as the Bears' "D" has emerged as the NFC's best. The Lions' are still snarling from their 45-24 Thanksgiving Day stuffing at the hands of the Patriots: PICK: Bears; 9.) (4-7) San Francisco 49ers (+10) @ (7-4) Green Bay Packers: The 49ers don't have an NFL caliber QB. The Packers do: PICK: Packers; 10.) (8-3) New Orleans Saints @ (2-9) Cincinnati Bengals (+7): The Saints have shown signs of rounding into 2009 form of late. The Bengals have shown signs of quitting: PICK: Saints; 11.) (9-2) Atlanta Falcons @ (7-4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): The Bucs lost two starters, pro-bowl caliber RG, Davin Joseph (Broken foot), and Safety Cody Grimm (broken ankle), in addition to last weeks' game, to the Ravens. It remains to be seen whether their pro-bowl caliber CB, Aqib Talib, will escape disciplinary action, after he allegedly threatened to punch a ref in the mouth, for what he perceived to be a bogus PI call: http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/nov/29/292121/cornerback-talib-remains-the-bucs-wildest-card/sports-bucs/
. Rumor has it that the Bucs have taken to chaining Talib to his bed at night, to prevent him from getting himself into trouble: http://www.tampabay.com/sports/football/bucs/worry-for-volatile-tampa-bay-buccaneers-cornerback-aqib-talib-grows/1137190
. Meanwhile, everything is coming up roses for QB Matt Ryan and his Birds, after they managed to outlast the Packers, 20-17, last Sunday. Though a let-down now could prove costly, three points isn't much of a spread: PICK: Falcons; 13.) (5-6) Oakland Raiders (+13) @ (6-5) San Diego Chargers: The Chargers look like world-beaters after thrashing the Colts in Indy, 36-14. After winning three games in a row for the first time in years, the Raiders have been blown out in consecutive weeks by the Steelers and Dolphins. The Chargers are rolling now, and should win. But...a 13 point spread is too good to pass up: PICK: Raiders; 14.) (1-10) Carolina Panthers (+6) @ (5-6) Seattle Seahawks: Carolina should be the tonic that the 'Hawks' need, to bounce back from getting embarrassed at home by the Kansas City Chiefs: PICK: Seahawks; 15.) (3-8) Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) @ (6-5) Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning and company begin to pick up the pieces after being booed, and embarrassed at home: PICK: Colts; 16.) (5-6) St. Louis Rams @ (3-8) Arizona Cardinals (+2.5): The Rams actually have a chance to win the putrid NFC West. Cardinal fans should be doing a daily vigil, praying for another loss...in hopes of gaining the draft rights to Stanford QB, Andrew Luck: PICK: Rams; 17.) (8-3) Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ (8-3) Baltimore Ravens: Were it not for the "Game of the Year" in Foxboro, this match-up certainly would have qualified as the "Game of the Week". The Steelers were extremely lucky to escape Buffalo with a win...but not so lucky, in that their star QB, Ben Roethlisberger, came away from the win with a sprained foot. The Ravens are dealing with a flurry of injuries on their OL. LT Jared Gaither is out. RT Michael Oher suffered a sprained knee last week, and RG Chris Chester (bacterial leg infection) is likely out. Furthermore, FB LeRon McClain is out with an ankle injury. The winner of this game likely wins their division, earns a playoff bye, and the second playoff seed. The loser is likely playoff fodder: PICK: Steelers. THOUGHTS?...particularly on the Jets/Pats, and Steelers/Ravens.
Posted by TexasPat3