Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

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    Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Congratulations again to our New England Patriots, for earning the AFC East title, and the #1 seed in the AFC tourney. It's hard to believe that this young team has a 13-2 record...especially when you consider the difficulty of their schedule.

         Here are my Week 17 picks, with the "Game of the Week" being:
     
    1.) (11-4) Chicago Bears (+6.5) @ (9-6) Green Bay Packers: With the Vikings' surprising upset win over the Eagles, the Bears no longer need a win to secure the #2 seed in the NFC, and a bye week. But, the Packers must win to make the play-offs. Even though Green Bay recently lost to the Patriots in Foxboro, you get the feeling that their Aaron Rodgers-less effort gave them confidence.  I don't want to stir up bad memories, but the same thing happened in 2007 with the NY Giants and, well...you know:
    PICK: Packers;

    2.) (7-8) Oakland Raiders (+4) @ (10-5) Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs will play to win, because (1) they hate the Raiders, and (2) a win assures them of the 3rd seed in the AFC tournament, and a date at home with the low flying Jets, rather than the high flying Buzzards. This is an important game for Patriots' fans. Why? Because, since the Pats own the Raiders' #1 pick, another Oakland loss would improve the value of that pick. Furthermore, a Chiefs' win would set up an Colts/Ravens playoff game...which would eliminate one of the two teams that pose perhaps the greatest threat to the Patriots, in the AFC:
    PICK: Chiefs;

    3.) (7-8) Miami Dolphins (+3) @ (13-2) New England Patriots: I'm not sure that the odds-makers are aware of the BB attitude, that every game is important. I expect the Pats to play Tom Brady and the regulars, as BB will attempt to keep the team's momentum on the upswing, going into the play-offs. This is also an important game for the future of Miami coach Tony Sparano, and his staff. The Dolphins have been a great road team all season:
    PICK: Patriots; 

    4.) (6-9) Tennessee Titans (+9) @ (9-6) Indianapolis Colts: The play-offs begin this Sunday for Indy. Should Indy lose and the Jaguars win, the Colts will be eliminated from the play-offs. With Joseph Addai back, and the return of Dominic Rhodes, the Colts showed the ability to establish a running game last week, in Oakland. The Colts are a very dangerous team when they are able to  run the ball:
    Colts;

    5.) (8-7) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (5-10) Texans (+2.5): The starting time for this game has been moved to 4:15, so the Jags will be playing at the same time as the Colts, who play the Titans, in Indy. But, Jacksonville QB David Gerrard will not play: http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/429812/tania-ganguli/2010-12-29/jaguars-quarterback-david-garrard-have-surgery-tomorrow, and Maurice Jones Drew will likely be questionable at best, after missing last weeks' game against the Redskins. Meanwhile, in Houston, Texan fans are holding rallies to oust head coach, Gary Kubiak:
    PICK: Texans;

    6.) (11-4) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (5-10) Cleveland Browns (+6): The Steelers must win this game to clinch the AFC North title, and a first round playoff bye as the 2nd seed in the AFC tournament...or must hope that the Buzzards lose to the Bengals in Baltimore. But, without Troy Polamalu, their defense is simply not the same. Eric Mangini likely needs a win to save his job. This could bbe a close game:
    PICK: Browns;

    7.) (4-11) Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) @ (11-4) Baltimore Ravens: The Bengals handed the Buzzards on of their four (4) losses early in the season, in Cincinnati. Without being saddled with TO and Ochocinco, the Bengals looked like a different team, as the upset the Chargers. They could be playing for coach Marvin Lewis' job. They could cover:
    PICK: Bengals;

    8.) (6-9) Minnesota Vikings (+7) @ (5-10) Detroit Lions: Rookie QB Joe Webb surprised, and played well against the Eagles. But, the Minnesota defense stood out, and played their best game since the 14-9 opening game loss to the Saints in New Orleans. Another Minnesota win will surely secure the head coaching job next season for Leslie Frazier. But, the Vikes will be playing on short rest. As for the Lions, they have won two straight road games, and are hungry to close out the season on a high note. But, the Lions as a seven (7) point favorite?:
    PICK: Vikings;

    9.) (9-6) New York Giants @ (6-9) Washington Redskins (+4):
    Eli Manning has contacted Jake Delhomme disease. Stick a fork in them...they're done:
    PICK: Redskins;

    10.) (5-10) Dallas Cowboys (+12) @ (10-5) Philadelphia Eagles: On any given Tuesday... The Eagles blew a golden opportunity at earning a playoff bye, by laying an egg on national television against the Joe Webb led Minnesota Vikings. Not only did the Eagles play poorly, but star QB Michael Vick appeared to injure his ankle on the final of six (6) Vikings' sacks. Ii's now possible that the Eagles will rest Vick in the finale against the Cowboys, in favor of Kevin Kolb. As for the Dallas Cowboys, most players, including interim head coach Jason Garrett, will be playing for their jobs. Even without Jon Kitna, they could at least cover:
    PICK: Cowboys;

    11.) (4-11) Buffalo Bills (+3) @ (10-5) New York Jets: Win or lose, the Jets are in as the 6th seed in the AFC tourney. The Bills were humiliated last week by the Patriots, and would like to end the season on a more positive note:
    PICK: Bills;

    12.) (2-13) Carolina Panthers (+14.5) @ (12-3) Atlanta Falcons: The Monday night loss to the Saints makes this a must win for the Falcons. Win, and they win the NFC South, and earn themselves the #1 seed in the NFC tournament. But, should they lose, and the Saints beat Tampa Bay, the Saints will will the NFC South, and earn the #1 seed, while Atlanta will tumble to the 5th seed. No say Matty Ice lets that happen:
    PICK: Falcons;

    13.) (9-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) @ (11-4) New Orleans Saints: The Bucs need the Packers to lose, the Giants to lose, and need a win to make the play-offs. The Saints look to be in fine form heading into the play-offs, but may use next week as a bye week:
    PICK: Bucs;

    14.) (7-8) St. Louis Rams @ (6-9) Seattle Seahawks (+2.5): Will the Seahawks be the first 7-9 team to make the play-offs? An injury to Matt Hasselbeck may limit his effectiveness, and save the league from embarrassment:
    PICK: Rams;

    15.) (5-10) Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) @ (5-10) San Francisco 49ers:  In what should be called the "Toilet Bowl". these teams will "battle". This could be the first time in history that fans from both teams will actively root for their team in lose, in hopes of getting a shot at a franchise QB in the 2011 draft:
    PICK: Cardinals;

    16.) (8-7) San Diego Chargers (+3.5) @ (4-11) Denver Broncos: A San Diego win will assure the Patriots of a slightly higher pick in the 2011 draft. Other than that, who cares: 
    PICK: Chargers. 

         BEST BETS: Patriots, Packers, and Texans.

         Thoughts...especially on the potential playoff implications of these games, or on the 'Fins/Pats?   

     
      

        
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Give me a minute to add a bit of the Philly game into my computer...
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     8) St. Louis Rams @ (6-9) Seattle Seahawks (+2.5): Will the Seahawks be the first 7-9 team to make the play-offs? An injury to Matt Hasselbeck may limit his effectiveness, and save the league from embarrassment: PICK: Rams
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    I don't want to see the league saved from embarassment.

    The NFL playoffs need a 7-9 team.

    This is the harbinger of the parity our fine commissioner so desperately seeks.

    In Goodell's vision, all teams will be 8-8 and playoff spots will be determined by coin-flips.

    Go Seahawks!

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Vikings have a much better chance if Farve doesn't play.
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I'm hoping that at least some of the Patriots and Chiefs play (namely the ones on my fantasy team: Brady, Woodhead, Cassel, and Dwayne Bowe).  I'm leading the league in total point for the season and I would like to finish the season strong so I can win $400 instead of just the $90-170 that I'd win if we come in second (got a few $30 prizes for high-scorer of the week; want high-scorer for the year)

    I think the Chiefs have appropriate incentive to win to avoid the Ravens and play the Jets instead, too.

    Otherwise, I'm taking a flyer on this week.  I can't wait to go to another playoff game!!!
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : I don't want to see the league saved from embarassment. The NFL playoffs need a 7-9 team. This is the harbinger of the parity our fine commissioner so desperately seeks. In Goodell's vision, all teams will be 8-8 and playoff spots will be determined by coin-flips. Go Seahawks!
    Posted by p-mike[/QUOTE]

         Good point...LOL!!!
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Power ratings, my point spreads (with disclaimers this week) and game of the week:

    My power ratings are designed for the purpose of giving accurate point spreads.  They’re based on the average NFL team winning 8.00 games out of 16, with a 2.35 game variance.  When a historical outlier like the Patriots comes along, consistently whaling on good to great teams week after week, their power rating is several standard deviations outside of the norm, and on my power rating scale they have gone above 16.  I understand that you can’t get more than 16 victories out of 16 in a season but for point spread purposes, that’s where they have to be.  Everybody else has to be compressed a bit toward the norm, while the Pats have to stick out like a sore thumb.

    ne   17.1   (last wk. 1)

    gb   13.2   (last wk. 2)

    pit   11.6   (last wk. 6)

    atl   11.1   (last wk. 5)

    chi   10.8   (last wk. 9)

    nyj   10.5   (last wk. 10)

    phi   10.5   (last wk. 3)

    no   10.2   (last wk. 11)

    bal   10.1   (last wk. 7)

    sd   9.7   (last wk. 4)

    nyg   9.2   (last wk. 8)

    det   9.2   (last wk. 16)

    ind   9.2   (last wk. 13)

    kc   8.3   (last wk. 17)

    mia   8.3   (last wk. 14)

    cle   8.1   (last wk. 23)

    tb   8.0   (last wk. 19)

    min   7.8   (last wk. 24)

    cin   7.2   (last wk. 25)

    jac   7.1   (last wk. 15)

    buf   7.0   (last wk. 18)

    dal   7.0   (last wk. 21)

    ten   7.0   (last wk. 12)

    was   6.4   (last wk. 27)

    stl   6.2   (last wk. 26)

    oak   6.0   (last wk. 20)

    hou   5.9   (last wk. 22)

    sf   5.3   (last wk. 28)

    den   2.5   (last wk. 29)

    az   2.3   (last wk. 32)

    car   1.9   (last wk. 30)

    sea   1.2   (last wk. 31)

    For point spreads, my numbers on the Jets and Patriots, at least, are meaningless this week.  They’re going to play their subs.  Much as I’d like Brian Hoyer throwing to Taylor Price for umpteen touchdowns, I have no statistical basis to expect anything out of them.  Please take other meaningless games off the board as you see fit.

    Other games are probably skewed because the postseason is on the line for one team and not for the other.  The KC/Oakland game stands out.

    I’m trusting TexasPat above for these commercial point spreads.

    home/visitor/my statistical points/the betting public’s opinion/difference

    pit   cle     -2.4   -6   3.6

    ten   ind     6.4   9   -2.6

    oak   kc     6.4   4   2.4

    cin   bal     7.2   9.5   -2.3

    nyg   was     -1.3   -4   2.7

    dal   phi     8.3   12   -3.7

    car   atl     16.9   14.5   2.4

    tb   no     6.3   8   -1.7

    min   det     5.1   7   -1.9

    buf   nyj     8.2   3   Off the boards

    mia   ne     16.2   3   Off the boards

    jac   hou     1.1   -2.5   3.6

    chi   gb     6.6   6.5   0.1

    stl   sea     -4.4   -2.5   -1.9

    az   sf     7.5   6.5   1.0

    sd   den     -7.7   3.5   -11.2

    Game of the week, and I have a long winning streak going here: -- I have to give it to KC. 

    oak   kc     6.4   4   2.4

    KC doesn’t have great numbers here, only 2.4 points above the oddsmakers, but they’re playing this week for the opportunity to face the (1-3 lately) Jets next week.  If they get by the Jets in the wild card, they then don’t have to come to Gillette in the divisional round, which is a very good idea for them.  In addition, Oakland hasn’t played a game in really bad weather since November 21 in Pittsburgh, and that wasn’t exactly freezing weather.  Oakland should prepare for a bit of a shock. 

    Major call:

    sd   den     -7.7   3.5   -11.2

    San Diego will be terribly depressed after losing out, but an 11 point difference?  The Eggos aren’t all that bad!  Remember when they were something like first in offensive yards and first in defensive yards too?  This is against Denver with a placeholder coach and a dumb (just slightly below average on the Wonderlic) rookie QB.

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    1.) (11-4) Chicago Bears (+6.5) @ (9-6) Green Bay Packers: PICK: Packers;

    2.) (7-8) Oakland Raiders (+4) @ (10-5) Kansas City Chiefs: PICK: Chiefs;

    3.) (7-8) Miami Dolphins (+3) @ (13-2) New England Patriots: PICK: Patriots; 

    4.) (6-9) Tennessee Titans (+9) @ (9-6) Indianapolis Colts: Colts;

    5.) (8-7) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (5-10) Texans (+2.5): PICK: Texans;

    6.) (11-4) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (5-10) Cleveland Browns (+6): PICK: Browns;

    7.) (4-11) Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) @ (11-4) Baltimore Ravens: PICK: Ravens;

    8.) (5-10) Minnesota Vikings (+7) @ Detroit Lions: PICK: Vikings;

    9.) (9-6) New York Giants @ (6-9) Washington Redskins (+4):
    PICK: Redskins;

    10.) (5-10) Dallas Cowboys (+12) @ (11-5) Philadelphia Eagles: PICK: Eagles;

    11.) (4-11) Buffalo Bills (+3) @ (10-5) New York Jets: PICK: Jets;

    12.) (2-13) Carolina Panthers (+14.5) @ (12-3) Atlanta Falcons: PICK: Falcons;

    13.) (9-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) @ (11-4) New Orleans Saints: PICK: Buccaneers;

    14.) (7-8) St. Louis Rams @ (6-9) Seattle Seahawks (+2.5): PICK: Rams;

    15.) (5-10) Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) @ (5-10) San Francisco 49ers:  PICK: Cardinals;

    16.) (8-7) San Diego Chargers (+3.5) @ (4-11) Denver Broncos: PICK: Chargers. 

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Update for the end of the Philadelphia game.  Philly needs to be pulled down a bit.

    ne   17.1   (last wk. 1)

    gb   13.3   (last wk. 2)

    pit   11.7   (last wk. 6)

    atl   11.1   (last wk. 5)

    chi   10.9   (last wk. 9)

    nyj   10.6   (last wk. 10)

    no   10.2   (last wk. 11)

    phi   10.1   (last wk. 3)

    bal   10.1   (last wk. 7)

    sd   9.7   (last wk. 4)

    det   9.3   (last wk. 16)

    nyg   9.2   (last wk. 8)

    ind   9.2   (last wk. 13)

    mia   8.3   (last wk. 14)

    kc   8.3   (last wk. 17)

    min   8.2   (last wk. 24)

    cle   8.1   (last wk. 23)

    tb   8.0   (last wk. 19)

    cin   7.3   (last wk. 25)

    jac   7.1   (last wk. 15)

    buf   7.1   (last wk. 18)

    dal   7.0   (last wk. 21)

    ten   6.9   (last wk. 12)

    was   6.4   (last wk. 27)

    stl   6.2   (last wk. 26)

    oak   6.0   (last wk. 20)

    hou   5.9   (last wk. 22)

    sf   5.2   (last wk. 28)

    den   2.5   (last wk. 29)

    az   2.3   (last wk. 32)

    car   1.9   (last wk. 30)

    sea   1.2   (last wk. 31)

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Not that it's important, but I'm not sure how Chicago/GBay is game of the week when it means nothing to one team? Chicago will be playing it like an exhibition game. 

    It should be St. Louis/Seattle. Don't forget Arizona almost won the SB with a similarly crappy record, so the game has meaning like it or not. 

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Not that it's important, but I'm not sure how Chicago/GBay is game of the week when it means nothing to one team? Chicago will be playing it like an exhibition game.  It should be St. Louis/Seattle. Don't forget Arizona almost won the SB with a similarly crappy record, so the game has meaning like it or not. 
    Posted by Muzwell[/QUOTE]

    That game lost all its lustre when the Vikings rose up from their lethargy and smote the mighty Iggles.

    For NFL drama next week, look to the hotly contested NFC West, where only the over-acheiving Missouri Rams (why is Missouri in the west?) stand in the way of the juggernaut that is the 6-9 Seattle Seahawks.


     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : That game lost all its lustre when the Vikings rose up from their lethargy and smote the mighty Iggles. For NFL drama next week, look to the hotly contested NFC West, where only the over-acheiving Missouri Rams (why is Missouri in the west?) stand in the way of the juggernaut that is the 6-9 Seattle Seahawks.
    Posted by p-mike[/QUOTE]

    Probably because it has been historically regarded as the gateway to the west.

    I suppose it's smarter than having Dallas in the NFC East, or for that brief but resplendent moment in NFL geographical history, having the Phoenix Cardinals in the NFC East, and the New Orleans Saints in the NFC West at the same time. 

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Not that it's important, but I'm not sure how Chicago/GBay is game of the week when it means nothing to one team? Chicago will be playing it like an exhibition game.  It should be St. Louis/Seattle. Don't forget Arizona almost won the SB with a similarly crappy record, so the game has meaning like it or not. 
    Posted by Muzwell[/QUOTE]

         Yep...you've got a point. But, I started this thread prior to the Minny/Philly game. That's what I get for jumping the gun.

         Still, the game is important to Green Bay, who must win to make the play-offs. Plus, the Packers are fun to watch. That's more than I can say for the Rams or Seahawks. Despite, the Philly loss, does anyone outside of St. Louis and Seattle care about who wins the NFC Worst?  There are at least a half dozen other games I'd rather see.

         The Rams, Seahawks, and the entire NFC West is a joke. If the NFC West isn't the weakest division of all-time, it's certainly the weakest in the last decade. 

         Yeah Goodell...go ahead and expand the play-offs...LOL!!!
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : That game lost all its lustre when the Vikings rose up from their lethargy and smote the mighty Iggles. For NFL drama next week, look to the hotly contested NFC West, where only the over-acheiving Missouri Rams (why is Missouri in the west?) stand in the way of the juggernaut that is the 6-9 Seattle Seahawks.

    Posted by p-mike[/QUOTE]

    I just know Pete will have his team jacked and pumped (or is it pumped and jacked?) for this one.

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : Probably because it has been historically regarded as the gateway to the west. I suppose it's smarter than having Dallas in the NFC East, or for that brief but resplendent moment in NFL geographical history, having the Phoenix Cardinals in the NFC East, and the New Orleans Saints in the NFC West at the same time. 

    Posted by zbellino[/QUOTE]

    Didn't Atlanta reside in the West as well? Or am I thinking of baseball? Or was it both?

     
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    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : Didn't Atlanta reside in the West as well? Or am I thinking of baseball? Or was it both?
    Posted by Muzwell[/QUOTE]

    Yes, Atlanta used to be in the NFC West with San Fran, The LA Rams and The New Orleans Saints. Talk about having to cover some ground within your own division.
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    1.) (11-4) Chicago Bears @ (9-6) Green Bay Packers

    After the game last night, I now think the Packers will pull this one out. It would have been a good game had Philly won, but now it's lost it's shine. Rodgers is playing well. As a Patriots fan, I hope neither of these teams make it to Dallas.

    2.) (7-8) Oakland Raiders  @ (10-5) Kansas City Chiefs

    The Chiefs should win this one, though it won't be a "gimme". The Raiders hate KC, and would love nothing better than to send them into the postseason with a defeat. But Arrowhead is a very tough place to play. Matt Cassel is showing why BB kept him around for so long. Jamal Charles is averaging 6.6 ypc. This is a young team that needs to go into the playoffs with momentum. Not only do I expect them to win this one, but also next week against the Jests.

    3.) (7-8) Miami Dolphins @ (13-2) New England Patriots 

    I expect BB to play the starters and go out with a big division win. The young guys on the team will benefit from going into the postseason on a roll. We may see Hoyer in the 4th quarter to run the clock out with a multiple TD lead.

    4.) (6-9) Tennessee Titans @ (9-6) Indianapolis Colts

    The Colts need this for the playoffs. They have Addai and Rhodes running the ball (these two should have shared the SB41 MVP, IMO) again. Their defense seems to step up in crunch time. Manning seems to be out of his (regular season) slump. I also think they have a good shot of beating Baltimore in the WC playing at home.

    5.) (8-7) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (5-10) Texans

    I think the Jags will pull this one out. Though they may be watching the Indy score. If MJD plays they should be able to control the clock and keep the Texans' offense on the bench. The Texans usually find a way to lose games late. They will be looking forward to a vacation.

    6.) (11-4) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (5-10) Cleveland Browns

    This is an interesting game, as the Browns can play well at times. They've won against both the Patriots and Saints this season. And I'm sure they'd love nothing more than to knock the Steelers out of that bye week. Troy Palomalu is out for the game, and that helps the Browns immensely. But I expect the Steelers to make just enough plays to pull out the victory. If I was betting I'd take the Browns with the points.

    7.) (4-11) Cincinnati Bengals @ (11-4) Baltimore Ravens

    The Bungles don't have a chance in this game. Baltimore still has a shot at a bye week, and will not allow Palmer to have a game like he did against SD. That is a lot of points, though. I think the game may be closer than that.

    8.) (5-10) Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

    The Vikings like Frazier, and will play well to help him win the HC job. The team will be fired up with the win in Philly, too. The Lions are the Lions, does anyone really expect them to win three in a row? Brett is still dizzy, Webb will get to show his stuff for a second game.

    9.) (9-6) New York Giants @ (6-9) Washington Redskins

    The G-men should win this one against Rex Grossman. The wild card here is Eli Manning. If he coughs the ball up the Skins should be able to at least cover, if not win outright. They are playing for their playoff lives, and possibly Coughlin's job. I think they manage to squeak out a win.

    10.) (5-10) Dallas Cowboys @ (11-5) Philadelphia Eagles
     

    I'm going to go with Dallas here. To win the game, not just for points. I suspect Vick will sit this one out, they certainly don't want him at less than 100% for the playoffs.

    11.) (4-11) Buffalo Bills @ (10-5) New York Jets

    I'd love to pick the Bills in this one. I just don't think they can pull it off in NJ. Too bad. I'd really like to see the Jests go into the playoffs losing 4 of their last 5. I don't think they'll win in Arrowhead in the WC, but they should be able to handle Buffalo on Sunday.

    12.) (2-13) Carolina Panthers @ (12-3) Atlanta Falcons

    This would be too big of a spread...had the Falcons not lost to the Saints on Monday. I expect "Mr. Ice" to be on fire and roll all over the pathetic Panthers.

    13.) (9-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (11-4) New Orleans Saints

    Drew Brees will show why he was the SB MVP last year. TB has a good young team, but the Saints are looking to show why they are the reigning champs. The Superdome will be rocking and the Saints will win convincingly.

    14.) (7-8) St. Louis Rams @ (6-9) Seattle Seahawks

    The Hawks may have stood a chance if Hasselback was playing. But they are a bad team. Sam Bradford is the real deal. I'm sure he won't be able to pull one off against either the Falcons or Saints in the WC, but making the playoffs (even at 8-8) is a huge feat for this Rams team that have been losers for so long. St. Louis wins this one easily, "12th man" notwithstanding.

    15.) (5-10) Arizona Cardinals @ (5-10) San Francisco 49ers

    Who really cares????
    I'll go with the 49ers as they're at home.

    16.) (8-7) San Diego Chargers @ (4-11) Denver Broncos 

    I'm going to go with Tebow and the Broncos here. Since they have nothing to play for, I don't expect the Chargers to be focused. Especially with the prevailing attitude these guys seem to have. Tebow wants to make a good case for the starting job next season. He's one of those guys who can make big plays. Denver hates SD, and would love to end the season by sending them into the offseason on two straight losses.

    All my picks are based on winning or losing, not by the point spread. Though I would bet the points on some were I a betting man. I do like the idea of the last week being division rivalries. This gives even some of the meaningless games more motivation for a team to win.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]1.) (11-4) Chicago Bears @ (9-6) Green Bay Packers After the game last night, I now think the Packers will pull this one out. It would have been a good game had Philly won, but now it's lost it's shine. Rodgers is playing well. As a Patriots fan, I hope neither of these teams make it to Dallas.
     
    RESPONSE: I can see worrying about Green Bay...but the Bears?? Assuming that the Pats reach Dallas, who would you rather see...the Packers, or the Saints? The SB being played in a dome helps the NFC teams.

    2.) (7-8) Oakland Raiders  @ (10-5) Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs should win this one, though it won't be a "gimme". The Raiders hate KC, and would love nothing better than to send them into the postseason with a defeat. But Arrowhead is a very tough place to play. Matt Cassel is showing why BB kept him around for so long. Jamal Charles is averaging 6.6 ypc. This is a young team that needs to go into the playoffs with momentum. Not only do I expect them to win this one, but also next week against the Jests.
     
    RESPONSE: If KC wins, the draw the Jets in round one...while the Colts must play the Ravens/Steelers. Would love to see either the Colts or Ravens eliminated.

    3.) (7-8) Miami Dolphins @ (13-2) New England Patriots   I expect BB to play the starters and go out with a big division win. The young guys on the team will benefit from going into the postseason on a roll. We may see Hoyer in the 4th quarter to run the clock out with a multiple TD lead.
     
    RESPONSE: I agree that BB will play to win. But, I do expect to see the Pats dust off Fred Taylor, and give him plenty of action.

    4.) (6-9) Tennessee Titans @ (9-6) Indianapolis Colts The Colts need this for the playoffs. They have Addai and Rhodes running the ball (these two should have shared the SB41 MVP, IMO) again. Their defense seems to step up in crunch time. Manning seems to be out of his (regular season) slump. I also think they have a good shot of beating Baltimore in the WC playing at home.
     
    RESPONSE: I thought that Rhodes should have been the MVP of that referee aided championship for the Colts.

    5.) (8-7) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (5-10) Texans I think the Jags will pull this one out. Though they may be watching the Indy score. If MJD plays they should be able to control the clock and keep the Texans' offense on the bench. The Texans usually find a way to lose games late. They will be looking forward to a vacation.
     
    RESPONSE: This game has been pushed back to a 4:15 start. So, the Jags will know the final score of the Indy game prior to kickoff. 

    6.) (11-4) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (5-10) Cleveland Browns This is an interesting game, as the Browns can play well at times. They've won against both the Patriots and Saints this season. And I'm sure they'd love nothing more than to knock the Steelers out of that bye week. Troy Palomalu is out for the game, and that helps the Browns immensely. But I expect the Steelers to make just enough plays to pull out the victory. If I was betting I'd take the Browns with the points.
     
    RESPONSE: I too see this as a tough game for the Steelers. These teams are big-time rivals. Eric Mangini may need a win to save his job.

    7.) (4-11) Cincinnati Bengals @ (11-4) Baltimore Ravens The Bungles don't have a chance in this game. Baltimore still has a shot at a bye week, and will not allow Palmer to have a game like he did against SD. That is a lot of points, though. I think the game may be closer than that.
     
    RESPONSE: A win could cause the Bengals to retain Carson Palmer, and pay him his $12mil. salary. A win, or at least a good showing, could also save Marvin Lewis' job. 

    8.) (5-10) Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions The Vikings like Frazier, and will play well to help him win the HC job. The team will be fired up with the win in Philly, too. The Lions are the Lions, does anyone really expect them to win three in a row? Brett is still dizzy, Webb will get to show his stuff for a second game.
     
    RESPONSE: Glad that the Brett Favre saga will finally come to an end.

    9.) (9-6) New York Giants @ (6-9) Washington Redskins The G-men should win this one against Rex Grossman. The wild card here is Eli Manning. If he coughs the ball up the Skins should be able to at least cover, if not win outright. They are playing for their playoff lives, and possibly Coughlin's job. I think they manage to squeak out a win.
     
    RESPONSE: The Giants didn't rebound in Green Bay, and I doubt that they'll rebound now. Somebody needs to sit down with Eli Manning and have a serious talk with him. Eli has the weapons and the raw ability to succeed, but his decision making is awful. Perhaps the Giants keep Coughlin, and hire Josh McDaniels as their QB coach, or OC? 

    10.) (5-10) Dallas Cowboys @ (11-5) Philadelphia Eagles   I'm going to go with Dallas here. To win the game, not just for points. I suspect Vick will sit this one out, they certainly don't want him at less than 100% for the playoffs.
     
    RESPONSE: Twelve (12) points is a huge spread. But, Stephen McGee may be starting for Dallas, as Jon Kitna got his bell rung last week.

    11.) (4-11) Buffalo Bills @ (10-5) New York Jets I'd love to pick the Bills in this one. I just don't think they can pull it off in NJ. Too bad. I'd really like to see the Jests go into the playoffs losing 4 of their last 5. I don't think they'll win in Arrowhead in the WC, but they should be able to handle Buffalo on Sunday.
     
    RESPONSE: I'm not sure that Mark Sanchez will play this week. I am sure that the boo birds will be out, in the Meadowlands.

    12.) (2-13) Carolina Panthers @ (12-3) Atlanta Falcons This would be too big of a spread...had the Falcons not lost to the Saints on Monday. I expect "Mr. Ice" to be on fire and roll all over the pathetic Panthers.
     
    RESPONSE: Agreed. The Falcons will take out their frustration from last Monday night on lowly Carolina. 

    13.) (9-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (11-4) New Orleans Saints Drew Brees will show why he was the SB MVP last year. TB has a good young team, but the Saints are looking to show why they are the reigning champs. The Superdome will be rocking and the Saints will win convincingly.
     
    RESPONSE: I don't know about this game. The Saints may choose to use this week as a bye week.

    14.) (7-8) St. Louis Rams @ (6-9) Seattle Seahawks The Hawks may have stood a chance if Hasselback was playing. But they are a bad team. Sam Bradford is the real deal. I'm sure he won't be able to pull one off against either the Falcons or Saints in the WC, but making the playoffs (even at 8-8) is a huge feat for this Rams team that have been losers for so long. St. Louis wins this one easily, "12th man" notwithstanding.
     
    RESPONSE: Both of these teams are frauds. Neither deserves to be in the play-offs.

    15.) (5-10) Arizona Cardinals @ (5-10) San Francisco 49ers Who really cares???? I'll go with the 49ers as they're at home.
     
    RESPONSE: Both teams would be better off losing, in order to secure a higher #1 draft choice.

    16.) (8-7) San Diego Chargers @ (4-11) Denver Broncos   I'm going to go with Tebow and the Broncos here. Since they have nothing to play for, I don't expect the Chargers to be focused. Especially with the prevailing attitude these guys seem to have. Tebow wants to make a good case for the starting job next season. He's one of those guys who can make big plays. Denver hates SD, and would love to end the season by sending them into the offseason on two straight losses.
     
    RESPONSE: Because there's nothing on the line, I expect San Diego to win easily.

    All my picks are based on winning or losing, not by the point spread. Though I would bet the points on some were I a betting man. I do like the idea of the last week being division rivalries. This gives even some of the meaningless games more motivation for a team to win.

    RESPONSE: Agreed. This is proof positive that even a blind squirrel (Goodell), finds an acorn every now and then.
    Posted by bubthegrub2[/QUOTE]
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Tex - no.  both the indy game and jax game will be played at the same time so that neither team will have the luxury of knowing the outcome of the other's game. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Tex - no.  both the indy game and jax game will be played at the same time so that neither team will have the luxury of knowing the outcome of the other's game. 
    Posted by UD6[/QUOTE]

         You're right. I  didn't realize that the Colts were also playing a late game: http://www.indystar.com/article/20101229/SPORTS03/101228021/Week-17-matchup-Tennessee-Titans-6-9-Indianapolis-Colts-9-6-?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Colts, and: http://jacksonville.com/sports/football/jaguars/2010-12-27/story/jaguars-texans-game-sunday-moved-415-pm 

         Got some good news for you, Dog(gggg). David Gerrard is out for the Texans game: http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/429812/tania-ganguli/2010-12-29/jaguars-quarterback-david-garrard-have-surgery-tomorrow
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Tex - I saw that.  The colts will take whatever advantage may be made available to them.  Remember, however, they are playing the texans.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I rely on the Yahoo odds page, except when Tex has the odds first.  But when I rely on TexasPat's odds,...

    Correction:  San Diego is not a 3.5 point underdog.  They're a 3.5 point overdog at Denver.  I'd still favor Sandy Eggo a little but not enough to call it for them against the point spread.  San Diego is probably pretty unglued this week while Denver is being slowly clamped back together with vise-grips.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Tex - I saw that.  The colts will take whatever advantage may be made available to them.  Remember, however, they are playing the texans.
    Posted by UD6[/QUOTE]

         True that...LOL!!! http://blogs.chron.com/fanzone/2010/12/fans_organizing_fire_gary_kubi.html
     
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