Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Give me a minute to add a bit of the Philly game into my computer...
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
         8) St. Louis Rams @ (6-9) Seattle Seahawks (+2.5): Will the Seahawks be the first 7-9 team to make the play-offs? An injury to Matt Hasselbeck may limit his effectiveness, and save the league from embarrassment: PICK: Rams
    Posted by TexasPat3


    I don't want to see the league saved from embarassment.

    The NFL playoffs need a 7-9 team.

    This is the harbinger of the parity our fine commissioner so desperately seeks.

    In Goodell's vision, all teams will be 8-8 and playoff spots will be determined by coin-flips.

    Go Seahawks!

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Vikings have a much better chance if Farve doesn't play.
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I'm hoping that at least some of the Patriots and Chiefs play (namely the ones on my fantasy team: Brady, Woodhead, Cassel, and Dwayne Bowe).  I'm leading the league in total point for the season and I would like to finish the season strong so I can win $400 instead of just the $90-170 that I'd win if we come in second (got a few $30 prizes for high-scorer of the week; want high-scorer for the year)

    I think the Chiefs have appropriate incentive to win to avoid the Ravens and play the Jets instead, too.

    Otherwise, I'm taking a flyer on this week.  I can't wait to go to another playoff game!!!
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Power ratings, my point spreads (with disclaimers this week) and game of the week:

    My power ratings are designed for the purpose of giving accurate point spreads.  They’re based on the average NFL team winning 8.00 games out of 16, with a 2.35 game variance.  When a historical outlier like the Patriots comes along, consistently whaling on good to great teams week after week, their power rating is several standard deviations outside of the norm, and on my power rating scale they have gone above 16.  I understand that you can’t get more than 16 victories out of 16 in a season but for point spread purposes, that’s where they have to be.  Everybody else has to be compressed a bit toward the norm, while the Pats have to stick out like a sore thumb.

    ne   17.1   (last wk. 1)

    gb   13.2   (last wk. 2)

    pit   11.6   (last wk. 6)

    atl   11.1   (last wk. 5)

    chi   10.8   (last wk. 9)

    nyj   10.5   (last wk. 10)

    phi   10.5   (last wk. 3)

    no   10.2   (last wk. 11)

    bal   10.1   (last wk. 7)

    sd   9.7   (last wk. 4)

    nyg   9.2   (last wk. 8)

    det   9.2   (last wk. 16)

    ind   9.2   (last wk. 13)

    kc   8.3   (last wk. 17)

    mia   8.3   (last wk. 14)

    cle   8.1   (last wk. 23)

    tb   8.0   (last wk. 19)

    min   7.8   (last wk. 24)

    cin   7.2   (last wk. 25)

    jac   7.1   (last wk. 15)

    buf   7.0   (last wk. 18)

    dal   7.0   (last wk. 21)

    ten   7.0   (last wk. 12)

    was   6.4   (last wk. 27)

    stl   6.2   (last wk. 26)

    oak   6.0   (last wk. 20)

    hou   5.9   (last wk. 22)

    sf   5.3   (last wk. 28)

    den   2.5   (last wk. 29)

    az   2.3   (last wk. 32)

    car   1.9   (last wk. 30)

    sea   1.2   (last wk. 31)

    For point spreads, my numbers on the Jets and Patriots, at least, are meaningless this week.  They’re going to play their subs.  Much as I’d like Brian Hoyer throwing to Taylor Price for umpteen touchdowns, I have no statistical basis to expect anything out of them.  Please take other meaningless games off the board as you see fit.

    Other games are probably skewed because the postseason is on the line for one team and not for the other.  The KC/Oakland game stands out.

    I’m trusting TexasPat above for these commercial point spreads.

    home/visitor/my statistical points/the betting public’s opinion/difference

    pit   cle     -2.4   -6   3.6

    ten   ind     6.4   9   -2.6

    oak   kc     6.4   4   2.4

    cin   bal     7.2   9.5   -2.3

    nyg   was     -1.3   -4   2.7

    dal   phi     8.3   12   -3.7

    car   atl     16.9   14.5   2.4

    tb   no     6.3   8   -1.7

    min   det     5.1   7   -1.9

    buf   nyj     8.2   3   Off the boards

    mia   ne     16.2   3   Off the boards

    jac   hou     1.1   -2.5   3.6

    chi   gb     6.6   6.5   0.1

    stl   sea     -4.4   -2.5   -1.9

    az   sf     7.5   6.5   1.0

    sd   den     -7.7   3.5   -11.2

    Game of the week, and I have a long winning streak going here: -- I have to give it to KC. 

    oak   kc     6.4   4   2.4

    KC doesn’t have great numbers here, only 2.4 points above the oddsmakers, but they’re playing this week for the opportunity to face the (1-3 lately) Jets next week.  If they get by the Jets in the wild card, they then don’t have to come to Gillette in the divisional round, which is a very good idea for them.  In addition, Oakland hasn’t played a game in really bad weather since November 21 in Pittsburgh, and that wasn’t exactly freezing weather.  Oakland should prepare for a bit of a shock. 

    Major call:

    sd   den     -7.7   3.5   -11.2

    San Diego will be terribly depressed after losing out, but an 11 point difference?  The Eggos aren’t all that bad!  Remember when they were something like first in offensive yards and first in defensive yards too?  This is against Denver with a placeholder coach and a dumb (just slightly below average on the Wonderlic) rookie QB.

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    1.) (11-4) Chicago Bears (+6.5) @ (9-6) Green Bay Packers: PICK: Packers;

    2.) (7-8) Oakland Raiders (+4) @ (10-5) Kansas City Chiefs: PICK: Chiefs;

    3.) (7-8) Miami Dolphins (+3) @ (13-2) New England Patriots: PICK: Patriots; 

    4.) (6-9) Tennessee Titans (+9) @ (9-6) Indianapolis Colts: Colts;

    5.) (8-7) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (5-10) Texans (+2.5): PICK: Texans;

    6.) (11-4) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (5-10) Cleveland Browns (+6): PICK: Browns;

    7.) (4-11) Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) @ (11-4) Baltimore Ravens: PICK: Ravens;

    8.) (5-10) Minnesota Vikings (+7) @ Detroit Lions: PICK: Vikings;

    9.) (9-6) New York Giants @ (6-9) Washington Redskins (+4):
    PICK: Redskins;

    10.) (5-10) Dallas Cowboys (+12) @ (11-5) Philadelphia Eagles: PICK: Eagles;

    11.) (4-11) Buffalo Bills (+3) @ (10-5) New York Jets: PICK: Jets;

    12.) (2-13) Carolina Panthers (+14.5) @ (12-3) Atlanta Falcons: PICK: Falcons;

    13.) (9-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) @ (11-4) New Orleans Saints: PICK: Buccaneers;

    14.) (7-8) St. Louis Rams @ (6-9) Seattle Seahawks (+2.5): PICK: Rams;

    15.) (5-10) Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) @ (5-10) San Francisco 49ers:  PICK: Cardinals;

    16.) (8-7) San Diego Chargers (+3.5) @ (4-11) Denver Broncos: PICK: Chargers. 

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Update for the end of the Philadelphia game.  Philly needs to be pulled down a bit.

    ne   17.1   (last wk. 1)

    gb   13.3   (last wk. 2)

    pit   11.7   (last wk. 6)

    atl   11.1   (last wk. 5)

    chi   10.9   (last wk. 9)

    nyj   10.6   (last wk. 10)

    no   10.2   (last wk. 11)

    phi   10.1   (last wk. 3)

    bal   10.1   (last wk. 7)

    sd   9.7   (last wk. 4)

    det   9.3   (last wk. 16)

    nyg   9.2   (last wk. 8)

    ind   9.2   (last wk. 13)

    mia   8.3   (last wk. 14)

    kc   8.3   (last wk. 17)

    min   8.2   (last wk. 24)

    cle   8.1   (last wk. 23)

    tb   8.0   (last wk. 19)

    cin   7.3   (last wk. 25)

    jac   7.1   (last wk. 15)

    buf   7.1   (last wk. 18)

    dal   7.0   (last wk. 21)

    ten   6.9   (last wk. 12)

    was   6.4   (last wk. 27)

    stl   6.2   (last wk. 26)

    oak   6.0   (last wk. 20)

    hou   5.9   (last wk. 22)

    sf   5.2   (last wk. 28)

    den   2.5   (last wk. 29)

    az   2.3   (last wk. 32)

    car   1.9   (last wk. 30)

    sea   1.2   (last wk. 31)

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Not that it's important, but I'm not sure how Chicago/GBay is game of the week when it means nothing to one team? Chicago will be playing it like an exhibition game. 

    It should be St. Louis/Seattle. Don't forget Arizona almost won the SB with a similarly crappy record, so the game has meaning like it or not. 

     
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    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    Not that it's important, but I'm not sure how Chicago/GBay is game of the week when it means nothing to one team? Chicago will be playing it like an exhibition game.  It should be St. Louis/Seattle. Don't forget Arizona almost won the SB with a similarly crappy record, so the game has meaning like it or not. 
    Posted by Muzwell


    That game lost all its lustre when the Vikings rose up from their lethargy and smote the mighty Iggles.

    For NFL drama next week, look to the hotly contested NFC West, where only the over-acheiving Missouri Rams (why is Missouri in the west?) stand in the way of the juggernaut that is the 6-9 Seattle Seahawks.


     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : That game lost all its lustre when the Vikings rose up from their lethargy and smote the mighty Iggles. For NFL drama next week, look to the hotly contested NFC West, where only the over-acheiving Missouri Rams (why is Missouri in the west?) stand in the way of the juggernaut that is the 6-9 Seattle Seahawks.
    Posted by p-mike

    Probably because it has been historically regarded as the gateway to the west.

    I suppose it's smarter than having Dallas in the NFC East, or for that brief but resplendent moment in NFL geographical history, having the Phoenix Cardinals in the NFC East, and the New Orleans Saints in the NFC West at the same time. 

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : That game lost all its lustre when the Vikings rose up from their lethargy and smote the mighty Iggles. For NFL drama next week, look to the hotly contested NFC West, where only the over-acheiving Missouri Rams (why is Missouri in the west?) stand in the way of the juggernaut that is the 6-9 Seattle Seahawks.

    Posted by p-mike

    I just know Pete will have his team jacked and pumped (or is it pumped and jacked?) for this one.

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : Probably because it has been historically regarded as the gateway to the west. I suppose it's smarter than having Dallas in the NFC East, or for that brief but resplendent moment in NFL geographical history, having the Phoenix Cardinals in the NFC East, and the New Orleans Saints in the NFC West at the same time. 

    Posted by zbellino

    Didn't Atlanta reside in the West as well? Or am I thinking of baseball? Or was it both?

     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    In Response to Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : Didn't Atlanta reside in the West as well? Or am I thinking of baseball? Or was it both?
    Posted by Muzwell


    Yes, Atlanta used to be in the NFC West with San Fran, The LA Rams and The New Orleans Saints. Talk about having to cover some ground within your own division.
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    1.) (11-4) Chicago Bears @ (9-6) Green Bay Packers

    After the game last night, I now think the Packers will pull this one out. It would have been a good game had Philly won, but now it's lost it's shine. Rodgers is playing well. As a Patriots fan, I hope neither of these teams make it to Dallas.

    2.) (7-8) Oakland Raiders  @ (10-5) Kansas City Chiefs

    The Chiefs should win this one, though it won't be a "gimme". The Raiders hate KC, and would love nothing better than to send them into the postseason with a defeat. But Arrowhead is a very tough place to play. Matt Cassel is showing why BB kept him around for so long. Jamal Charles is averaging 6.6 ypc. This is a young team that needs to go into the playoffs with momentum. Not only do I expect them to win this one, but also next week against the Jests.

    3.) (7-8) Miami Dolphins @ (13-2) New England Patriots 

    I expect BB to play the starters and go out with a big division win. The young guys on the team will benefit from going into the postseason on a roll. We may see Hoyer in the 4th quarter to run the clock out with a multiple TD lead.

    4.) (6-9) Tennessee Titans @ (9-6) Indianapolis Colts

    The Colts need this for the playoffs. They have Addai and Rhodes running the ball (these two should have shared the SB41 MVP, IMO) again. Their defense seems to step up in crunch time. Manning seems to be out of his (regular season) slump. I also think they have a good shot of beating Baltimore in the WC playing at home.

    5.) (8-7) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (5-10) Texans

    I think the Jags will pull this one out. Though they may be watching the Indy score. If MJD plays they should be able to control the clock and keep the Texans' offense on the bench. The Texans usually find a way to lose games late. They will be looking forward to a vacation.

    6.) (11-4) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (5-10) Cleveland Browns

    This is an interesting game, as the Browns can play well at times. They've won against both the Patriots and Saints this season. And I'm sure they'd love nothing more than to knock the Steelers out of that bye week. Troy Palomalu is out for the game, and that helps the Browns immensely. But I expect the Steelers to make just enough plays to pull out the victory. If I was betting I'd take the Browns with the points.

    7.) (4-11) Cincinnati Bengals @ (11-4) Baltimore Ravens

    The Bungles don't have a chance in this game. Baltimore still has a shot at a bye week, and will not allow Palmer to have a game like he did against SD. That is a lot of points, though. I think the game may be closer than that.

    8.) (5-10) Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

    The Vikings like Frazier, and will play well to help him win the HC job. The team will be fired up with the win in Philly, too. The Lions are the Lions, does anyone really expect them to win three in a row? Brett is still dizzy, Webb will get to show his stuff for a second game.

    9.) (9-6) New York Giants @ (6-9) Washington Redskins

    The G-men should win this one against Rex Grossman. The wild card here is Eli Manning. If he coughs the ball up the Skins should be able to at least cover, if not win outright. They are playing for their playoff lives, and possibly Coughlin's job. I think they manage to squeak out a win.

    10.) (5-10) Dallas Cowboys @ (11-5) Philadelphia Eagles
     

    I'm going to go with Dallas here. To win the game, not just for points. I suspect Vick will sit this one out, they certainly don't want him at less than 100% for the playoffs.

    11.) (4-11) Buffalo Bills @ (10-5) New York Jets

    I'd love to pick the Bills in this one. I just don't think they can pull it off in NJ. Too bad. I'd really like to see the Jests go into the playoffs losing 4 of their last 5. I don't think they'll win in Arrowhead in the WC, but they should be able to handle Buffalo on Sunday.

    12.) (2-13) Carolina Panthers @ (12-3) Atlanta Falcons

    This would be too big of a spread...had the Falcons not lost to the Saints on Monday. I expect "Mr. Ice" to be on fire and roll all over the pathetic Panthers.

    13.) (9-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (11-4) New Orleans Saints

    Drew Brees will show why he was the SB MVP last year. TB has a good young team, but the Saints are looking to show why they are the reigning champs. The Superdome will be rocking and the Saints will win convincingly.

    14.) (7-8) St. Louis Rams @ (6-9) Seattle Seahawks

    The Hawks may have stood a chance if Hasselback was playing. But they are a bad team. Sam Bradford is the real deal. I'm sure he won't be able to pull one off against either the Falcons or Saints in the WC, but making the playoffs (even at 8-8) is a huge feat for this Rams team that have been losers for so long. St. Louis wins this one easily, "12th man" notwithstanding.

    15.) (5-10) Arizona Cardinals @ (5-10) San Francisco 49ers

    Who really cares????
    I'll go with the 49ers as they're at home.

    16.) (8-7) San Diego Chargers @ (4-11) Denver Broncos 

    I'm going to go with Tebow and the Broncos here. Since they have nothing to play for, I don't expect the Chargers to be focused. Especially with the prevailing attitude these guys seem to have. Tebow wants to make a good case for the starting job next season. He's one of those guys who can make big plays. Denver hates SD, and would love to end the season by sending them into the offseason on two straight losses.

    All my picks are based on winning or losing, not by the point spread. Though I would bet the points on some were I a betting man. I do like the idea of the last week being division rivalries. This gives even some of the meaningless games more motivation for a team to win.
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Tex - no.  both the indy game and jax game will be played at the same time so that neither team will have the luxury of knowing the outcome of the other's game. 
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Tex - I saw that.  The colts will take whatever advantage may be made available to them.  Remember, however, they are playing the texans.
     
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    Re: Week 17 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I rely on the Yahoo odds page, except when Tex has the odds first.  But when I rely on TexasPat's odds,...

    Correction:  San Diego is not a 3.5 point underdog.  They're a 3.5 point overdog at Denver.  I'd still favor Sandy Eggo a little but not enough to call it for them against the point spread.  San Diego is probably pretty unglued this week while Denver is being slowly clamped back together with vise-grips.
     
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