Merry Christmas, y'all! Hard to believe that the final week of the 2012 NFL regular season is upon us. Coming off a great week of picking games against the spread (for a change), I'll ride that momentum into Week 17, with the "Game of the Week" being:

1.) (8-7) Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) @ (9-6) Washington Redskins:  Good to see what was one of the most bitter rivalries in the game, heat up again. The winner takes the NFC East crown. The loser will likely be out of the playoff picture. Washington has won 6 straight games, and should make it 7. The Cowboys' have handed away games likes Santa hands out gifts: PICK: Redskins;

2.) (6-9) NY Jets (+3.5) @ (5-9) Buffalo Bills:  Is there a sadder, more dreary place to end a horrific season, than Buffalo, NY? Games don't come much more more void of meaning than this one. Does amybody care? Will anybody show, especially if a snow storm hits: PICK: Jets;

3.) (7-8) Miami Dolphins (+10) @ (11-4) New England Patriots: Just two short weeks ago, was any team flying higher than the Patriots? The media was ready to fit them for SB rings. But, after back to back weeks of uninspired, lackadaisical play, who knows what to expect from this bunch? Meanwhile, the Dolphins have played pretty well down the stretch. With a win, they would notch a respectable .500 season. Don't like giving up 10 points: PICK: Dolphins;

4.) (10-5) Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ (9-6) Cincinnati Bengals:  Both teams are coming off huge wins. The Ravens were impressive in desstroying the Giants, 33-14, while the Bengals eliminated the Steelers from playoff contention, with a 13-10 OT win. Both teams are in the play-offs, with Baltimore going in as AFC North champs, regardless of the outcome of this game: PICK: Bengals;

5.) (5-10) Cleveland Browns @ (7-8) Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF LINE):  Who knows which team will rise to the occasion in this meaningless tilt. The Steelers have lost three straight, and need a win to finish .500. Because this is a rivalry game, both teams will try: PICK: Steelers;

6.) (12-3) Houston Texans @ (10-5) Indianapolis Colts (+4.5):  The Texans own the tie breakers over Denver, but not over the Patriots. A win for them clinches a bye week, and the top seed in the AFC tournament. But, a loss combined with a Patriots' win will drop Houston to 3rd seed, and cost them a bye. Though this game holds no playoff implications for the 5th seeded Colts, the return of head coach Chuck Pagano to the Indy sidelines should serve to inspire. The Texans haven't play well of late, losing two of their last three: PICK: Colts;

7.) (2-13) Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) @ (5-10) Tennessee Titans: The Tuxedos were humiliated in Green Bay last week, 55-7. The Jags gave the Patriots all they could hanfdle last week, before losing their 4th straight game. Jacksonville holds a better conference record than the equally awful KC Chiefs. So, a loss likely won't help the Jags, should they intend to tank, to get the top pick in the 2013 NFL draft, as KC will surely lose at Denver: PICK: Titans;

8.) (4-11) Philadelphia Eagles (+9.5) @ (8-7) NY Giants: With consecutive stinkers against Atlanta and Baltimore, the Giants have seemingly thrown away what appeared to be a certain NFL East title, if not a playoff birth. Now, they must hope to beat Philly, and have Minnesota, Chicago, and Washington all lose, in order to gain a wildcard spot. But, this could happen, as Green Bay needs to beat the Vikings to earn a playoff bye. Dallas must beat Washington to win the NFC East crown, or they will be eliminated. The up and down Bears have to beat the high scoring Lions in Detroit. Believe it or not, the biggest obstacle for the Giants may be beating the Eagles. QB Michael Vick returns for Philly. Look for him to put on a show in hopes of enticing another teams to invest in him, next season: PICK: Eagles;

9.) (9-6) Chicago Bears @ (4-11) Detroit Lions (+3):  Though the Bears haven't exactly been world beaters of late, they know that a win this week gets them into the NFC tournament. They also know that a loss could spell the end of the Lovie Smith era in Chicago. The Lions have shown nothing also season...Megatron notwithstanding: PICK: Bears;

10.) (11-4) Green Bay Packers @ (9-6) Minnesota Vikings (+3): Having won four straight, including a 55-7 demolition of the Tennessee Titans last week, the Packers appear to be peaking, at the right time. The Vikings have won three straight, and boast MVP candidate, RB Adrian Peterson. Green Bay needs a win to beat out the 49ers for the second seed in the NFC, and a first round bye. Minnesota needs to win to make the play-offs: PICK: Packers;

11.) (6-9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (13-2) Atlanta Falcons (OFF LINE):  Who knows who will play, and for how long. That's why this game is off-line. Still, I look for the Falcons to play to win, in order to carry positive momentum into the play-offs: PICK: Falcons;

12.) (6-9) Carolina Panthers (+4.5) @ (7-8) New Orleans Saints: Carolina has won three straight, and both players and coaches appear to be laboring for their jobs, in 2013. For the Saints, their rocky, Goodellian tainted season, mercifully comes to a close. Though the Saints have issues defensively, few offenses can match their scoring capabilities: PICK: Panthers;          

13.) (2-13) Kansas City Chiefs (+16.5) @ (11-3) Denver Broncos: Poor Romeo Crennel and Scott Pioli. The wheels really fell off the Kansas City wagon this year. Denver needs to win in order to clinch a first round bye, and, perhaps, the top seed in the AFC tournament. No way they let all that slip away against the woeful Piolians. But, by more than 16.5 points?: PICK: Chiefs;

14.) (4-11) Oakland Raiders @ (6-9) San Diego Chargers: (OFF LINE): QB Carson Palmer is out for the Raiders. But, what do the Chargers really have to play for? Both GM A.J. Smith and Norv Turner appear to have run out of promises and second chances. Nonetheless: PICK: Chargers;

15.) (10-4-1) San Francisco 49ers @ (5-10) Arizona Cardinals (+15): After getting embarrassed by the Seahawks, the 49ers must win in order to secure the NFC West title. The QB-less Cardinals likely couldn't score 3 TDs in 60 minutes against a team of tackling dummies. Still, they are professionals, playing for their jobs, and for pride. This is their SB: PICK: Cardinals;

16.) (7-7-1) St. Louis Rams (+10.5) @ (10-5) Seattle Seahawks: Their is no hotter team in the NFL than Seattle. Over their last three games, they've scored 59, 50, and 42 points. Though the Rams have won 4 of their last 5 games, they've seen nothing like Seattle:  PICK: Seahawks.

     BEST BETS: Eagles, Bears, Packers, Chargers.

     Some sky high point spreads make calling this weeks' games very challenging. As always, your comments and predictions are welcome...especially your thoughts on the Miami/Patriots game.   

I hope you know his picks just means he picks them beating the other team, just means he expects them to cover the spread

i see it the same way. I think the Patriots are going to have their hands full with Miami, they have struggled the past couple of weeks and Miami has a good defense. The   Patriots defense should be able to hold their own. I'd look for a low scoring game, and closer than the 10 point spread. The offense will have to improve for the playoffs but it should with the return of Gronk, he's a huge part of their success. It would be nice to see the Patriots play well and dominate but  I don't see it. 

Merry Christmas Tex, my present to you is this since I had time to research, and you might make a couple of bucks.

If the Pats Pass 40+ times in a game, expect a loss or a tight game. They have passed 40+ times this year, Seattle, Arizona, Ravens, Jets(1st game), Miami, 49's, Jaguars. Only 1 game they were behind in at halftime, the 49's.

I always grade on the curve.  Yes, it's a bit disturbing when New England doesn't keep up with the curve.  They should have creamed Jacksonville and they didn't.

I'm willing to listen to arguments that the worst teams want only to beat the best team to "make their season", what with their low expectations.  However, it still doesn't look good that New England escaped Jacksonville by only seven points.  New England apparently has a few injuries hurting them and injuries count for something. 

1   sea   13.9   (last wk. 2)

2   ne   12.9   (last wk. 1)

3   den   12.4   (last wk. 4)

4   sf   12.3   (last wk. 3)

5   gb   11.2   (last wk. 5)

6   atl   10.9   (last wk. 6)

7   min   10.7   (last wk. 10)

8   chi   10.0   (last wk. 13)

9   car   9.4   (last wk. 9)

10   was   9.4   (last wk. 11)

11   cin   9.3   (last wk. 12)

12   hou   9.1   (last wk. 7)

13   no   9.0   (last wk. 14)

14   nyg   9.0   (last wk. 8)

15   bal   8.9   (last wk. 17)

16   mia   8.5   (last wk. 16)

17   stl   8.5   (last wk. 18)

18   dal   7.8   (last wk. 15)

19   sd   7.4   (last wk. 24)

20   pit   7.1   (last wk. 20)

21   tb   6.9   (last wk. 19)

22   ind   6.3   (last wk. 21)

23   cle   6.1   (last wk. 25)

24   det   6.0   (last wk. 23)

25   az   5.9   (last wk. 22)

26   buf   5.5   (last wk. 26)

27   nyj   5.4   (last wk. 27)

28   phi   4.7   (last wk. 28)

29   ten   3.6   (last wk. 29)

30   oak   3.5   (last wk. 30)

31   jac   2.7   (last wk. 31)

32   kc   1.7   (last wk. 32)

Week 17 is always problematic for me.  Too many teams shut down because they're locked into a playoff slot.  Just as a guess, I'll give each of these lazy teams a 6 point deduction.

Some teams have just missed the playoffs, and usually that's the week (or the two week period) when things are most dysfunctional for the team.  Every agent calls the losing teams and tells his players, "Just don't get injured!  I have a great free agent contract lined up for us!"  So, each player doesn't sacrifice himself.  I'm going to deduct 4 points for any team that just blew its shot last week and 2 points for any team that blew its shot two weeks ago.  The average clod team missing the playoffs long before that has already forced its own adjustment into my system by now.

visitor / home / my points / Vegas line / difference

cle   pit    3.0   off

Pittsburgh is newly busted.  Cleveland is old hat.  So, I'll say Cleveland by 1 point.

gb   min    4.7   -3.0   7.7

If Minnesota wins their next five games they get the ring.  Game on!

bal   cin    4.4   3.0   1.4 

Baltimore and Cincy are both playing out the string.  The #4 spot is better than the #3 spot, assuming that an unhealthy Houston wins in Indy, but that’s a big if.

chi   det    -0.3   -3.0   2.7

Chicago has a real shot.  Their deciding Green Bay Minnesota game comes later. 

mia   ne    8.6   10.0   -1.4

New England will care an awful lot if Houston loses earlier, and I say that Houston probably loses.  In the end I'm going to clip 2 points off of New England's score, because Houston has a 1/3 chance of actually winning.  I throw 4 points right back on because Miami hasn't been north since November 15.  The snowstorm lets up around noon on Sunday but the northwest wind is really going to howl all evening, with temperatures dropping from 33 to 27 during the game.

dal   was    5.0   3.5   1.5

Game on!  Late adjustments for RGIII's injuries or his getting well would be useful.

nyj   buf    1.9   3.5   -1.6

Both teams are used to their fates by now.

phi   nyg    3.2   9.5   -6.3

I've got the New York Giants pegged as newly minted quitters here.  They still have a 6% chance of sneaking in with massive help and they have a history of winning the big one, but honestly?  Big?  Philly by .8 points is more like it.

jac   ten    5.5   4.0   1.5

car   no    4.0   4.5   -0.5

hou   ind    2.4   -4.5   6.9

Indianapolis Coach Pagano is making noises like they're pulling their chin straps tight and coming to play this game as a statement game in front of their home crowd.  Never mind playing Baltimore next week, creaming their division rival is everything for them.  I say, here they come, game on. 

tb   atl    7.4   off

Atlanta has no reason to play this game.  Subtract 6 points from my 7.4-point estimate.  Because this game's score is functionally worthless, I won't add it into my stats. 

stl   sea    13.9   10.5   3.4

Honestly, San Francisco has it 95% sewed up.  Seattle is playing for almost nothing.  Subtract 6 points from my spread, please.

az   sf    13.5   15.0   -1.5

San Fran needs this game for a bye week.

oak   sd    7.7   off

I assume that Norv got cashiered or something to take this game off the table.

kc   den    17.3   16.5   0.8

Game on.  Not that KC has been playing football lately.  Any given Sunday? 

My last week's game of the week was such a cute little puppy, Seattle by 29 points.  I like it when my call far exceeds even my own lofty expectations, and that's been happening a reasonable amount of the time.  After 16 weeks, 8 and 6 with 2 pushes.

For week 17 I have three legitimate candidates for game of the week:  Minnesota, Philly and Indianapolis. 

The Giants have this magnificent record all year of falling apart against diddly teams.  They couldn't beat Dallas.  They couldn't beat Philly the first time.  They couldn't beat Washington.  Two weeks ago the Jints had the division championship in their hands but then they laid down by a total score of 14-67.  Now, with a reported 6% chance remaining of making the playoffs compared to what they had two weeks ago, I say they complete the gas pipe job early.  I'm going to have to go with the World Champion New York Giants self-destructing against poor worthless little Philly and Nick Foles,a relatively good road team that doesn't mind New Jersey weather much.  Fore!

I make Minnesota and Indy my two other picks. 

I always grade on the curve.  Yes, it's a bit disturbing when New England doesn't keep up with the curve.  They should have creamed Jacksonville and they didn't.

I'm willing to listen to arguments that the worst teams want only to beat the best team to "make their season", what with their low expectations.  However, it still doesn't look good that New England escaped Jacksonville by only seven points.  New England apparently has a few injuries hurting them and injuries count for something. 

RESPONSE: There's something more than that that's wrong with this team. With the exception of the Houston game, the Pats' OL play has has been fair-poor at best. As a result, their offense has sputtered. Tom Brady likely is sore from head to toe from all the shots he's taken over the past several games. Over the past four weeks, the Jags hit him nine (9) times, the 49ers seven (7) times, the Texans six (6) times, and the Dolphins eight (8) times. That's 30 QB hits absorbed by the 35 year old wizard, over a four game period. If this trend continues, the Pats are going nowhere.   

1   sea   13.9   (last wk. 2)

2   ne   12.9   (last wk. 1)

3   den   12.4   (last wk. 4)

4   sf   12.3   (last wk. 3)

5   gb   11.2   (last wk. 5)

6   atl   10.9   (last wk. 6)

7   min   10.7   (last wk. 10)

8   chi   10.0   (last wk. 13)

9   car   9.4   (last wk. 9)

10   was   9.4   (last wk. 11)

11   cin   9.3   (last wk. 12)

12   hou   9.1   (last wk. 7)

13   no   9.0   (last wk. 14)

14   nyg   9.0   (last wk. 8)

15   bal   8.9   (last wk. 17)

16   mia   8.5   (last wk. 16)

17   stl   8.5   (last wk. 18)

18   dal   7.8   (last wk. 15)

19   sd   7.4   (last wk. 24)

20   pit   7.1   (last wk. 20)

21   tb   6.9   (last wk. 19)

22   ind   6.3   (last wk. 21)

23   cle   6.1   (last wk. 25)

24   det   6.0   (last wk. 23)

25   az   5.9   (last wk. 22)

26   buf   5.5   (last wk. 26)

27   nyj   5.4   (last wk. 27)

28   phi   4.7   (last wk. 28)

29   ten   3.6   (last wk. 29)

30   oak   3.5   (last wk. 30)

31   jac   2.7   (last wk. 31)

32   kc   1.7   (last wk. 32)

Week 17 is always problematic for me.  Too many teams shut down because they're locked into a playoff slot.  Just as a guess, I'll give each of these lazy teams a 6 point deduction.

Some teams have just missed the playoffs, and usually that's the week (or the two week period) when things are most dysfunctional for the team.  Every agent calls the losing teams and tells his players, "Just don't get injured!  I have a great free agent contract lined up for us!"  So, each player doesn't sacrifice himself.  I'm going to deduct 4 points for any team that just blew its shot last week and 2 points for any team that blew its shot two weeks ago.  The average clod team missing the playoffs long before that has already forced its own adjustment into my system by now.

visitor / home / my points / Vegas line / difference

cle   pit    3.0   off

Pittsburgh is newly busted.  Cleveland is old hat.  So, I'll say Cleveland by 1 point.

gb   min    4.7   -3.0   7.7

If Minnesota wins their next five games they get the ring.  Game on!

bal   cin    4.4   3.0   1.4 

Baltimore and Cincy are both playing out the string.  The #4 spot is better than the #3 spot, assuming that an unhealthy Houston wins in Indy, but that’s a big if.

chi   det    -0.3   -3.0   2.7

Chicago has a real shot.  Their deciding Green Bay Minnesota game comes later. 

mia   ne    8.6   10.0   -1.4

New England will care an awful lot if Houston loses earlier, and I say that Houston probably loses.  In the end I'm going to clip 2 points off of New England's score, because Houston has a 1/3 chance of actually winning.  I throw 4 points right back on because Miami hasn't been north since November 15.  The snowstorm lets up around noon on Sunday but the northwest wind is really going to howl all evening, with temperatures dropping from 33 to 27 during the game.

dal   was    5.0   3.5   1.5  Game on!  Late adjustments for RGIII's injuries or his getting well would be useful.

nyj   buf    1.9   3.5   -1.6  Both teams are used to their fates by now.

phi   nyg    3.2   9.5   -6.3

I've got the New York Giants pegged as newly minted quitters here.  They still have a 6% chance of sneaking in with massive help and they have a history of winning the big one, but honestly?  Big?  Philly by .8 points is more like it.

jac   ten    5.5   4.0   1.5  The golfing is still pretty nice in the South.

car   no    4.0   4.5   -0.5

hou   ind    2.4   -4.5   6.9

Indianapolis Coach Pagano is making noises like they're pulling their chin straps tight and coming to play this game as a statement game in front of their home crowd.  Never mind playing Baltimore next week, creaming their division rival is everything for them.  I say, here they come, game on, heads shaved. 

tb   atl    7.4   off 

Atlanta has no reason to play this game.  Subtract 6 points from my 7.4-point estimate.  Because this game's score will be functionally worthless, I won't add it into my stats. 

stl   sea    13.9   10.5   3.4

Honestly, San Francisco has it 95% sewed up.  Seattle is playing for almost nothing.  Subtract 6 points from my spread, please.

az   sf    13.5   15.0   -1.5  San Fran needs this game for a bye week.

oak   sd    7.7   off  I assume that Norv got cashiered or something to take this game off the table.

kc   den    17.3   16.5   0.8  Game on.  Not that KC has been playing football lately.  Any given Sunday? 

My last week's game of the week was such a cute little puppy, Seattle by 29 points.  I like it when my call far exceeds even my own lofty expectations, and that's been happening a reasonable amount of the time.  After 16 weeks, 8 and 6 with 2 pushes.

For week 17 I have three legitimate candidates for game of the week:  Minnesota, Philly and Indianapolis. 

The Giants have this magnificent record all year of falling apart against diddly teams.  They couldn't beat Dallas.  They couldn't beat Philly the first time.  They couldn't beat Washington.  Two weeks ago the Jints had the division championship in their hands but then they laid down by a total score of 14-67.  Now, with a reported 6% chance remaining of making the playoffs compared to what they had two weeks ago, I say they complete the gas pipe job early.  I'm going to have to go with the World Champion New York Giants self-destructing against poor worthless little Philly and Nick Foles,a relatively good road team that doesn't mind New Jersey weather much.  Fore!

RESPONSE: Nick Foles is out for the Giants' game, having suffered a broken hand. Michael Vick will start for Philly. 

I make Minnesota and Indy my two other picks. 

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night!

RESPONSE: Belated Merry Christmas to you and yours, Paul. Hope it was great for you!

     Jints...what in the world has happened to the Giants? Losing is one thing...but 34-0 to Atlanta, and 33-14 to Baltimore? Embarrassing. They appear to be done. I don't see the Bears losing to the Lions, and, for that matter, I'm not sure that the Giants can handle their own business against the Michael Vick led Eagles.

     Their defense in particular has really let them down. They are 28th overall against the pass, and 25th overall against the run. YUCK!!! In the upcoming draft and/or in free agency, they need help at every position on defense, and at OT. Lots of work to do in the off-season for GM Jerry Reese.

In response to TexasPat's comment:

TexasPat, maybe I'm wrong, but I believe the Giants need the Cowboys to lose, not Washington, in order to get a wild card spot.

Just a little thing I noticed reading your post.

TexasPat, maybe I'm wrong, but I believe the Giants need the Cowboys to lose, not Washington, in order to get a wild card spot.

Just a little thing I noticed reading your post.

you arent a pats fan 

In response to In_BB_We_Trust's comment: