WEEK 5 NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

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    WEEK 5 NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

         The Pat's sweet road win over the Atlanta Falcons was marred by the loss of stud DT Vince Wilfolk for the season, due to a torn Achilles tendon. But, fretting about what took place last week is counter productive. So...next man up, and let's move on to Week 5, with the "Game of the Week" being:

    1.) (4-0) Seattle Seahawks @ (3-1) Indianapolis Colts (+2.5): This battle between second year star QBs, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck, should be interesting to watch. After falling behind last week to the Texans, 20-3, the Seattle came from behind to win in OT, 23-20. They did so without both starting OTs, Russell Okung and Breno Giacomini, and starting center, Max Unger. All three likely will miss this game as well. After a stirring win in San Francisco, the Colts destroyed the pathetic Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville. But, Indy lost first-round draft pick, OLB Bjoern Werner, for the next 4-6 weeks. Werner suffered a torn plantar fascia (the ligament that connects the heel to the toes) in his right foot. Fullback Stanley Havili will miss at least Sunday’s game against Seattle with a sprained ankle. Though I hate to go against Andrew Luck in Indy, the Seahawks are the best team in the NFC: PICK: Seattle;

    2.) (2-2) Buffalo Bills (+4.5) @ (2-2) Cleveland Browns: Buffalo's top RBs, C. J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are banged up, and will likely miss this Thursday night game:  http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/bills-nfl/bills-may-be-down-to-third-choice-at-rb-20130930. Since installing ex-Patriot Brian Hoyer as their QB, the Browns have won two straight. Thus far, ex-Bills' RB Willis McGahee has done a fine job replacing the departed Trent Richardson: PICK: Browns;

    3.) (4-0) Kansas City Chiefs @ (3-1) Tennessee Titans (+3): Coming off an impressive thrashing of the NY Giants, the Chiefs'main concerns are the health of CB Brandon Flowers (knee), at rookie stud LT, Eric Fisher (possible concussion): http://www.kansascity.com/2013/09/30/4519731/chiefs-reid-says-colquitt-charles.html . Tennessee crushed the Jets last week, but lost starting QB Jake Locker for 4-6 weeks in the process, due to a hip injury. Former Bills' starter Ryan Fitzpatrick replaces him. In what should be a tight defensive battle decided by a FG: PICK: Titans;

    4.) (2-2) Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ (3-1) Miami Dolphins: Thanks primarily to five (5) Joe Flacco interceptions, the Ravens managed to lose at Buffalo, 23-20. But, it wasn't all Flacco's fault. The Ravens' pass protection was attrocious, and their ground game was so ineffective that it was abandoned. During one stretch of play, Flacco threw 31 straight passes! This horrendous team performance raised the ire of coach John Harbaugh:   http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-ravens-john-harbaugh-critical-1001-20130930,0,4281439.story . Baltimore now goes to Miami to face the seemingly improved Dolpins...who had a rough ride in the Big Easy last Monday night, as Drew Brees and company took them apart, 38-17. The commission of four turnovers, including three Ryan Tannehill picks, and having to play without stud pass-rusher Cameron Wake (sprained knee), certainly didn't help the cause. Since the Dolphins' "D" couldn't contain RB Darren Sproles coming out of the backfield, look for the Ravens to employ RB Ray Rice in a similar fashion...assuming that Rice is healthy: PICK: Ravens;

    5.) (0-4) Jacksonville Jaguars (+12) @ (1-3) St.Louis Rams: These are two terrible teams, heading into oblivion. Much more was expected from Jeff Fisher's Rams. The Jaguars refusal to give up on their awful starting QB, Blaine Gabbert, is proof positive that they are tanking to secure the #1 overall pick in the 2014 draft. Time for the Jags to trade frustrated RB Maurice Jones Drew to a contending team: PICK: Rams;

    6.) (4-0) New England Patriots (+2) @ (2-2) Cincinnati Bengals: The Cincinnati Bengals appear to be a team brimming with talent. So, why aren't they winning? Bengals' fans are demanding an answer to this question, after seeing their loveables lay an egg in Cleveland, losing 17-6. The answer folks is that QB Andy Dalton is not the answer. He's overrated, and inconsistent. The other problem in Bengalville is that they are coached by Marvin Lewis, who is a defensive version of Norv Turner. Give BB the Bengals' roster, plus Tom Brady, and some of the accolades being hailed on the Horseface would be leveled on that squad. Despite the presence of Lewis and Dalton, the Bengals are still a tough out, especially on their home field. Look for them to try to establish a running game against the Wilfolk-less Patriots. They'll likely will also try to use their TEs and RBs coming out of the backfield, in a fashion similar to what the Falcons did, last Sunday. As for the Pats, look for BB to take away stud WR A. J. Green, and employ screens and the quick slants to blount the Bengals' ability to pressure Tom Brady. If the Pats can establish some remnants of a running game and protect Brady, they'll get it done: PICK: Patriots;

    7.) (3-1) Detroit Lions (+7) @ (1-2) Green Bay Packers: This one should be a shoot-out. The Lions mediocre at best secondary took a blow last week, as starting CB Chris Houston went out with a hamstring injury. Their other starting CB, veteran Rahean Mathis, who appeared to suffer a concussion last week, should play. The Packers have both injury and depth troubles. They are still waiting on defensive backs Casey Hayward and Jarrett Bush, fullback John Kuhn, and outside linebacker Clay Matthews to heal up from their respective hamstring injuries. RBs Eddie Lacey and Johnathan Franklin should play, but are dinged up. At WR, the Packers are down to just four on their roster. TE Jermichael Finley is out (concussion). Coming off a pasting of the Bears in Detroit, the Lions are in a prime position to take control of the NFC North with a win over the depleted Packers: PICK: Lions;

    8.) (4-0) New Orleans Saints (+1) @ (3-1) Chicago Bears: This game drew consideration for "Game of the Week" honors. The Bears were lit up by the Lions last week in Detroit, while the Saints are hitting the road in high gear after exposing the Miami Dolphins, last Monday night. The season ending injury to DT Henry Melton appeared to have a very detrimental effect on Chicago's "D", as the Lions served them with a 40 burger. To slow down the Saints' offense, a "D" must contain RB Darren Spoles, and TE Jimmy Graham. Last week, Detroit RB Reggie Bush slashed and gashed the Bears. Bush is a player with skills very similar to Sproles. The other thing that the Bears must do is to establish a running game to set up play action, and do a better job of protecting QB Jay Cutler from an aggressive Saints' defense. In what should be a very exciting game: PICK: Bears;

    9.) (1-3) Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ (0-4) NY Giants: Though the Eagles can score, their defense is a joke. As for the G-men, this game could be their the Battle of the Bulge, where they turn back the hordes and salvage their season...or their Waterloo. They MUST win this game: PICK: Giants;

    10.) (1-2) Carolina Panthers @ (2-2) Arizona Cardinals (+2): Cards' head coach Bruce Arians knows that his team was extremely fortunate in escape Tampa with a win. His offense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Panthers are coming off a bye week. Having two weeks to prepare for the popgun Cards seems unfair. That said, Carolina's offense is nothing to write home about either...though they did plant a 38 spot on the Giants in their last game. If the Panthers can't beat the Cards, it could cast a pall on their season: Panthers;

    11.) (2-2) San Diego Chargers @ (1-3) Oakland Raiders (+4.5): QB Aaron Prior should be ready to return this Monday night. But, RB Darren McFadden (hamstring) likely will not. Though I like what I've seen from Prior, the rest of his team is lacking. But for a couple of boneheaded plays, the Chargers would be 4-0 this season: PICK: Chargers;

    12.) (4-0) Denver Broncos @ (2-2) Dallas Cowboys (+7): How more TD passes will the Horseface hang up, against the Cowboys? In a shoot-out between Tony Romo and Peyton Manning, who would you hang your hat on?: PICK: Broncos;

    13.) (2-2) Houston Texans (+7) @ (2-2) San Francisco 49ers: What appeared to be a marquee match-up at the beginning of the season is now a battle between the best 2-2 teams in the league. Houston should have beaten the Seahawks last week, and they know it. That loss prompted a players' only meeting. Meanwhile, Texans' fans were busy burning Matt Schaub jerseys outside of Reliant Stadium...as Schaub has now thrown a pick-6 in three straight games. After being embarrassed in back to back weeks by the Seahawks and the Colts, the 49ers appeared to regain their mojo, by crushing the Rams last Thursday night, 35-11. In what should be a very physical contest: PICK: Texans;

    14.) (2-2) N.Y. Jets (+9) @ (1-3) Atlanta Falcons: Beating the Falcons in Atlanta was a nice win for the Pats. But, these Falcons are not the (13-3) Falcons of last year. Injuries on both sides of the ball have depleted this team. Against the Titans, Geno Smith played like the turnover machine that he is...with two picks and two lost fumbles: PICK: Falcons.

         BEST BETS: Broncos, Rams, Falcons, Patriots.                      

     As always, your comments and opinions are welcome...especially with regards to the Pats' game. Have a great week my friends!      

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from WazzuWheatfarmer. Show WazzuWheatfarmer's posts

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    I would be leery of picking against the Saints right now, but I see why you might think a road trip to Soldier Field could be a tough spot for them.  I would take Denver and give the 7 all day long against Dallas. Might even have to make a wager there.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

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         Giants pro-bowl guard Chris Snee to have season ending hip surgery?: http://www.theredzone.org/BlogDescription/tabid/61/EntryId/37782/Report--Chris-Snee--can-t-move---may-be-facing-surgery/Default.aspx

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from LuvsThosePats. Show LuvsThosePats's posts

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    I'm sorry, but the Pats +2 against Cincy???  Didn't the oddsmakers see the game Sunday night?  The Bengals are gonna get killed by the Pats this Sunday.  Go to the Bengals message boards -- they are ready to run Dalton out of town on a rail, he's been so bad.  And I agree with taking the Falcons, the points notwithstanding -- the Jets seem to be really awful right now.  The Rams are giving 12 points -- I mean, I know it's Jacksonville, but the Rams were totally AWFUL on Thursday night against the 49ers.  They probably won't score 12 points the whole game -- might be some 7-3 score at that one.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

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    I think Denver loses this week.......just a feeling.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

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    In response to Iceman4's comment:

    I think Denver loses this week.......just a feeling.



         We can only hope. I am so, so tired of hearing about the wonders of Peyton Manning.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from neinmd. Show neinmd's posts

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    Given the point spread, I disagree on a few of your picks. Colts over Seahawks is a strong possibility since the Seahawks on the road are a very different team, as is Dolphins over Ravens by, I think, a touchdown. I also think 49ers bounce back against Texans (a team with a locker room in disarray).

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

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    In response to LuvsThosePats' comment:

    I'm sorry, but the Pats +2 against Cincy???  Didn't the oddsmakers see the game Sunday night?  The Bengals are gonna get killed by the Pats this Sunday.  Go to the Bengals message boards -- they are ready to run Dalton out of town on a rail, he's been so bad.  And I agree with taking the Falcons, the points notwithstanding -- the Jets seem to be really awful right now.  The Rams are giving 12 points -- I mean, I know it's Jacksonville, but the Rams were totally AWFUL on Thursday night against the 49ers.  They probably won't score 12 points the whole game -- might be some 7-3 score at that one.



         The Bengals have a much better defense than do the Falcons. Though I agree with Bengals' fans about Andy Dalton, Cincy is the best all-around team the Pats have faced this season.

         With regards to giving the Jags 12 points in their game with the Rams...yes...that's a lot of point. But, the Jaguars are by far the worst team in the NFL. Blaine Gabbert should be arrested for impersonating an NFL quarterback.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

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    In response to neinmd's comment:

    Given the point spread, I disagree on a few of your picks. Colts over Seahawks is a strong possibility since the Seahawks on the road are a very different team, as is Dolphins over Ravens by, I think, a touchdown. I also think 49ers bounce back against Texans (a team with a locker room in disarray).



         The Colts beating the Seahawks in Indy is a strong possibility. This should be a great game. But, I love that Seattle defense. As for the Dolphins and Ravens, the Ravens will have a chip on their shoulder after blowing one to the Bills. The Texans' are not a team with "a locker room in disarray." They played their best game of the season last week against the best team in the NFC...and should have won. J.J. Watt is the best defensive lineman in the game. I see him disrupting Colin Kaerpernick and the 49ers offense. 

         That said, you usually can't go wrong in picking games just the opposite as I do...LOL!!!   

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

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    News headline:  “Lucky Man Sees Pals Die”.  Oh yeah that’s so lucky!  The Atlanta Falcons were lucky in that they recovered a desperation onside kick and they hit their last minute passes, at least they hit all of their critical passes until they didn’t hit the critical ones in the end.  However, the Falcons probably shouldn’t have planned to be three scores behind with five minutes left to go in the game.  That’s the difference between having luck and being a banned word that rhymes with luck, a word that Bob Kraft reportedly called Belichick after spygate broke.  At the time, the Globe didn't censor their own use of the same word.  Isn't censorship for our own good wonderful?

    Bill Belichick really likes his prevent.  Pats fans hate the prevent defense but they do like first round bye weeks.  In Atlanta’s case the prevent worked for BB.  I rate the game as a serious downing of the Falcons in their home dome followed by a limited amount of good luck in their desperation game, and with their mounting injury list maybe the Falcons have really earned their good kick downward.  Note that Vince Wilfork’s injury took place before the Patriots went on their best rampage in the second half. 

    Perhaps San Francisco had an off-day a week ago and bounced back, but it looks like Indianapolis more than deserved their boost up to #13 after week 3.  Houston gets credit for hanging well with Seattle, and Seattle gets a slight power drop.  Nice race in the AFC South!

    Miami ran into a buzz saw on Monday night.  The Patriots coaching staff is studying the video tape, asking themselves whether they can adapt the New Orleans game plan.  The Jets ran into, ahh, enough about the Jets.

    My own power ratings for week 5:

    1   den   15.2   (last wk. 1)

    2   sea   14.0   (last wk. 2)

    3   ne   12.5   (last wk. 3)

    4   gb   11.2   (last wk. 7)

    5   no   11.2   (last wk. 8)

    6   sf   11.2   (last wk. 14)

    7   car   10.5   (last wk. 4)

    8   bal   9.7   (last wk. 9)

    9   hou   9.5   (last wk. 15)

    10   ind   9.5   (last wk. 13)

    11   ten   9.0   (last wk. 22)

    12   det   8.9   (last wk. 25)

    13   atl   8.9   (last wk. 6)

    14   sd   8.8   (last wk. 17)

    15   mia   8.7   (last wk. 5)

    16   dal   8.4   (last wk. 11)

    17   cle   8.1   (last wk. 20)

    18   cin   8.1   (last wk. 12)

    19   buf   7.8   (last wk. 19)

    20   kc   7.7   (last wk. 16)

    21   chi   7.2   (last wk. 10)

    22   min   7.2   (last wk. 21)

    23   tb   6.8   (last wk. 23)

    24   az   6.5   (last wk. 26)

    25   nyj   5.9   (last wk. 18)

    26   oak   4.8   (last wk. 24)

    27   phi   4.7   (last wk. 28)

    28   pit   4.6   (last wk. 29)

    29   was   3.9   (last wk. 31)

    30   stl   3.6   (last wk. 27)

    31   nyg   3.5   (last wk. 30)

    32   jac   -1.5   (last wk. 32)

     

    My own point spreads for week 5:

    Visitor / Home / My points / The Gambling Public’s Opinion / difference

    buf   cle    2.6   4   -1.4

    phi   nyg    -4.4   2   -6.4

    jac   stl    14.2   11   3.2

    kc   ten    6.8   -2.5   9.3

    no   chi    2.6   0   2.6

    bal   mia    1.5   3   -1.5

    sea   ind    1.5   -2   3.5

    det   gb    12.5   7   5.5

    ne   cin    -3.5   1   -4.5

    car   az    -3.7   -2   -1.7

    sd   oak    -3.2   -4.5   1.3

    den   dal    -6.8   -9   2.2

    hou   sf    11.7   6.5   5.2

    nyj   atl    8.6   11   -2.4

    I wasn’t watching the “home field” in London for my week 4 pick.  I let it slide because I would have picked Minnesota in any case.  The line was about 3 points for Pittsburgh, my numbers said 9 points for Minnesota, a neutral home field would have brought that down to 5 points for Minnesota and in the end Minnesota won by 7 points.  Still easy pickings.  I’m 4-0 this season.  My second choice pick, against the Giants, came out pretty well too.  The odds of me going 16-0 with my picks (I hate week 17 because of all the joke games) are only 65,535 to 1 against me. 

    Philly isn’t a good team but at least they’re young and slowly growing into their hurryup offense.  They finished the first half against Denver on Sunday, in the mile high air, at only 21-13, so they have half a pulse, and they looked semi-respectable in their other three games.  New Yorkers just love their Giants but I haven’t seen the team actually play any football whatsoever in the last three games -- no defense and no offense either.  So my Game of the Week for week 5 is the Eagles.

    phi   nyg    -4.4   2   -6.4

     

    Leaners:

    You’re only good as your last game, and San Fran is functioning well again.  Houston probably left it all out on the field last week against Seattle. 

    hou   sf    11.7   6.5   5.2

    New England negatives:  Vince Wilfork is out, but my stats would have picked some of that up in the Atlanta game.  Positives:  Gronk and Amendola will show up some week.

    ne   cin    -3.5   1   -4.5

    Green Bay is Detroit’s second divisional rival in two weeks.  Green Bay, on the other hand, had its bye week and wants nothing more than to beat dome team Detroit next weekend.  I’ve almost never seen a team respond badly to a bye week.  A high of 54 degrees and winds of 15 to 20 mph are forecasted. 

    det   gb    12.5   7   5.5

    Non-leaners:

    The Jake Locker cheap hit late on Sunday takes the bloom right off of Tennessee’s victory.  No call here.  I have nothing good to say about the NFL Commissioner for coddling teams that live on cheap hits after the game is essentially over.  If I were the commish my rule would be, you break it you bought it.  Remove draft choices from any team that breaks an opponent’s body and give the picks to the victim’s team.  Go for high draft choices if the player is critical to the team. 

    kc   ten    6.8   -2.5   9.3

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

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         Paul and y'all may be selling the Bengals a bit short. They have a very good defense. Atlanta did not. This will be a stiff test for the offense.

         Though each NFL game is important, this game against the Bengals holds more importance than the Atlanta game, in that it is a conference game. Cincinnati has a good chance of winning the AFC North. With a win, the Pats could jump out to an insurmountable four game edge over the Bengals (3 full games, plus the tie breaker).

         The Pats and everyone else in the AFC are likely battling for the #2 seed since, barring the unexpected, the Denver Horsefaces look like a shoe-in for the #1 seed. If the Patriots can push aside the Bengals, all they would have to do to secure that #2 seeding and a playoff bye is to beat out the Colts or the Texans...whichever of the two that wins the AFC South.   

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

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         The upcoming Cincinnati game is the Pats' biggest game of the young season...from the standpoint of playoff implications. Here's a preview of what to expect:

    I. CINCINNATI: The Cincinnati offense was pathetic last weekend in Cleveland. Head coach Marvin Lewis was particularly concerned over the lack of a running game, in that rookie Giovanni Bernard and BenJarvis Green-Ellis could get no traction against a rugged Cleveland front seven. Look for the Bengals to test the Wilfolk-less middle of the Pats, and try to establish the run: http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20130930/SPT02/309300163/Running-game-major-concern-Bengals The Pats need to be weary of the shifty Bernard, both as a runner, and as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Though the Bengals know that the Pats will key on star receiver A. J. Green, they should not go completely away from him. But, at least on paper, Cincinnati has two big, capable TEs, in Eifort and Gresham. Look for Andy Dalton to target them early and often.

         The Bengals run a 4-3 "D". So much of their success against the pass is predicated on their pass rush. Thus far, pro-bowl DT Geno Atkins is off to a slow start. He must apply internal pressure to Tom Brady, if the Bengals are to win. The Other Cincy defenders to keep an eye on are their trio of DEs, Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson and rookie Mangus Hunt. All are tall and capable pass-rushers. Even if they are unable to get to Brady, look for these DEs to do the J. J. Watt thing, and try to knock passes down. LBs Burfict, Maualuga, and ex-Steeler James Harrison are tough and physical. Harrison likely will be used as a pass rushing specialist on  passing downs.

    II. PATRIOTS: As is always the case, the Pats' hopes ride on the shoulders on the Big Uglies up front. I expect that the Bengals will play eight in the box on "D", trying to make it hard for the Pats to establish the run. Should this happen, look for the Pats to run some deep posts with WR Kenbrell Thompkins, who may draw a double team. This should open up the middle of the field somewhat for Julian Edelman, who is currently tied for the league lead in receptions. Since rookie WR Aaron Dobson may be held out, look for fellow rookie Josh Boyce to get more action. He'll likely be used on bubble screens, deep posts, and fly routes. Expect the Pats to run their screen game to try to neuter the aggressions of the Bengals' DEs. It is imperative that the offense gets off to a fast start. Should the Pats fall behind early, the Cincy fans will get into the game, the Bengals will exude confidence, and the Patriots could be in for a rough afternoon. 

         On defense, Aqib Talib will shadow Cincy stud WR, A.J. Green. The key for success of defense is take away Green, shut down the run, and make QB Andy Dalton beat them with his secondary weapons. With Vince out, look for ILB Brandon Spikes to play a larger role. When  Spikes is out there, look for the Browns to try to isolate him in coverage against one of their two big TEs...or against RB Bernard. If pressured, look for Dalton to crack.          

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Philskiw1. Show Philskiw1's posts

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    I think the Chiefs beat the Titans. Alex Smith is managing games. If the Chiefs let the Titans hang around then it could go eitherway. Andy Ried has the boys playing.

    The 3 points is for the home field advantage. Chiefs beat them straight up.

     

     

    Now you got the easy part done telling me about it.

    Does that handshaped bruise on your back hurt?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

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    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

    I think the Chiefs beat the Titans. Alex Smith is managing games. If the Chiefs let the Titans hang around then it could go eitherway. Andy Ried has the boys playing.

    The 3 points is for the home field advantage. Chiefs beat them straight up.

     

     

    Now you got the easy part done telling me about it.

    Does that handshaped bruise on your back hurt?



         Could be. But I see this as a close game.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Eldunker. Show Eldunker's posts

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    Other crappy QBs have had looked good against the Pats and Dalton will play just good enough to beat a very beat-up Pats team, IMO.  We've escaped with fortunate wins in 3 of 4 games already.  Bengals by 6.  23 - 17. 

    We just have too many key players out or playing with injuries.

       

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

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    Sometimes you're only as good as your last game. 

    The Patriots defense minus Vince Wilfork held Atlanta's potent passing game down just enough, although Atlanta gets too much credit for recovering that desperation onside kick against Suds.  Also, the Patriot passing game seems to have somewhat taken off.  The release of Suds indicates that Gronk is coming out, also that something permanent may be wrong with Suds.

    Andy Dalton hung two field goals on Cleveland's defense.  Is that good or is that a New York Jets order of magnitude of offensive explosion?  Cleveland sports a quarterback who has made more stops than the Green Line and they have an awesome running back except he's in Indianapolis now.  Against this, Cincinnati surrendered 17 points?

     
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