WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

     The Giants offense has a lot of offensive weapons. We will probably see Eli airing it out a lot this weekend so we better be prepared for watching it.
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    You have odds before the Monday Night game is played.  That's impressive!
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

     I am not convinced there is a blueprint. If your offense can dominate time of posession against the Pats and you can pressure Brady you have huge advantages and that "blueprint" will work against everyone. When the Pats offense struggles it is usually because the offensive line struggles. If Brady gets the time he will destroy a defense I do not care how talented it is. The Pats offense can not be expected to score on any drive (especoially against the top defenses like the Steelers, Jets or Ravens). The defense has to get off the field on 3rd down better and force the other team to punt. The Steelers played a great game and the Pats still almost pulled it out. People think the offense stinks now if it does not score 30 points a game, the Steelers do not give up 30 points a game that often. Great performances like the one the Pats had in 2010 are the exception, not the rule. The Pats prepared for a certain Steelers and a diferrent one showed up, good for them they earned it. The Giants are fairly similar to the Steelers when healthy. A team that has a reputation as a running team which is actually a much better passing team. They also have a good head coach who actually knows when to challenge a play without having to see a replay (who ever is in charge of telling Bill when to challenge a play must have been distracted by a hot dog or is just a yes man afraid to speak up). I expect the Pats to win a nail biter but I am not confident.
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    I agree and disagree about the blueprint.  I see some lessons learned,  I do not fear the Giants because they lack the one thing the Stealers had last Sunday,  A QB who can make the have to have it pass. How many 3rd and longs did he convert?  I do not see Eli Manning making those throws. So, what are we faced with?  We have to figure out two teams, the Stealers and the Bills. I see us having to face each of them in the Post Season and barring a significant injury loss the Bills can score enough to win against our D and the Stealers can keep our offense on the bicycles trying to stay warm.
    Posted by Geographer91


    I tend to agree with you about Eli, he just has the feel of a guy who won't make the big play consistently.  With that in mind, he has a 134 passer rating in the 4th quarter this year and has led 4 4th quarter comebacks.  So I guess we have to hope he reverts to his old ways against the NE 32nd ranked pass defense.

    P.s.  SteElers
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    I agree and disagree about the blueprint.  I see some lessons learned,

    1. If the defense is going against a power offense like the Stealers then we need to score first, no deferring the toss anymore. Take a chance to be in front
    2. Go for it, we actually played well against the run but the Stealers did not fear our pass rush, we used to mix up blitzes from the corners or safeties to keep the QB honest.
    3. Learn to slow down, we have been doing great at the hurry up this season but we seem to have more difficulty in playing a calm set of downs.  The Stealers did what we did to the JETS, they kept the ball and our defense on the field, their offense against our tired defense.

    I do not fear the Giants because they lack the one thing the Stealers had last Sunday,  A QB who can make the have to have it pass. How many 3rd and longs did he convert?  I do not see Eli Manning making those throws.


    So, what are we faced with?  We have to figure out two teams, the Stealers and the Bills. I see us having to face each of them in the Post Season and barring a significant injury loss the Bills can score enough to win against our D and the Stealers can keep our offense on the bicycles trying to stay warm.
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    Grumble.  It’s a Patriots loss against a pretty good team, an away game too, but the Pats are notable for being 13 points down late in the game.  Note:  in the flash ratings I inputted 8 points down but sometimes I goof.  It was 13 points down with 3 minutes to go by my rules, which I try to follow.

    I didn’t like the Patriots performance.  If Pittsburgh can stuff the Patriots’ offense with 10 guys on the line of scrimmage and 1 deep, maybe someone else can also.  Same for the defense.

    In any case, here are the ratings: 

    1   gb   13.7   (last wk. 1)

    2   det   12.9   (last wk. 7)  pound pound pound…  What else would we expect?

    3   pit   11.7   (last wk. 11)  They took a big jump here.

    4   sf   11.5   (last wk. 4)  SF got a somewhat comfortable win at home against a bozo.  Not too much was new to my stats.

    5   ne   11.2   (last wk. 2)  Slightly surprising how little New England dropped.  In my ratings it also matters how everyone’s opponents did.

    6   phi   10.9   (last wk. 14)  Dallas is normally a pretty good team, but this game was cruel and unusual.

    7   buf   10.5   (last wk. 9)

    8   chi   10.4   (last wk. 8)

    9   hou   10.2   (last wk. 5)  They couldn’t beat J-ville that easily?

    10   bal   10.0   (last wk. 6)  They almost couldn’t beat who?

    11   no   9.6   (last wk. 3)  Whatever is wrong with N.O.?  And, why won’t the same thing happen next week?

    12   atl   9.5   (last wk. 12)

    13   cin   9.4   (last wk. 15)

    14   nyj   9.4   (last wk. 10)

    15   dal   8.5   (last wk. 13)

    16   oak   7.9   (last wk. 16)

    17   min   7.7   (last wk. 21)  Even the dead can walk again in the NFL.

    18   tb   7.4   (last wk. 17)

    19   sd   7.0   (last wk. 19)

    20   ten   7.0   (last wk. 24)  Some of the dead can stagger again.

     

    21   kc   6.9   (last wk. 20)

    22   car   6.7   (last wk. 18)

    23   jac   6.6   (last wk. 22)

    24   nyg   6.1   (last wk. 23)

    25   sea   5.7   (last wk. 25)

    26   was   5.0   (last wk. 27)

    27   az   5.0   (last wk. 30)

    28   cle   4.5   (last wk. 29)

    29   mia   4.2   (last wk. 28)  Minor signs of life against the (koff) Giants.

    30   den   4.0   (last wk. 26)  Some of the dead can’t even roll over in their graves.

    31   stl   3.0   (last wk. 32)  One victory does not an actual team make. 

    32   ind   2.1   (last wk. 31)  Zero chances of victories doesn’t even make a good zombie.

    My point spreads

    Vis  Home / My Points / The gambling public’s opinion / Dfference

    cle   hou    11.6   12   -0.4

    sf   was    -6.6   -3.5   -4.1

    tb   no    1.9   8.5   -6.6

    mia   kc    11.7   5   6.7

    sea   dal    7.4   12   -4.6

    atl   ind    -12.5   -7.5   -5.0

    nyj   buf    0.3   0.5   -0.2

    cin   ten    -0.6   2.5   -3.1

    den   oak    13.4   8.5   4.9

    stl   az    6.0   4   2.0

    gb   sd    -12.4   -6.5   -5.9

    nyg   ne    10.8   9   1.8

    bal   pit    5.7   3   2.7

    chi   phi    -0.7   8.5   -9.2

    I now have successfully called my game of the week four weeks in a row.  Last week was San Francisco to cruise a minimum of 9 points ahead of Cleveland.  The spread was close, but they cruised.  I had a great winning record on my game of the week late last year too.  And I still don't understand the idea of taking slobbery candy from a baby.  What can I do with a whole drawer full of the stuff?

    In addition, all three of last week's other predictions also came in.

    Buffalo was way more than 6 points better than Washington.

    Denver was not exactly 3.5 points better than Detroit. No way!

    I favored KC plus the points.  As of last Tuesday Vegas favored San Diego by 3.5 points.  The point spread, at least, was in the bag when KC went 8 points up.  Even if SD could tie the game and then kick a winning field goal, that would only be 3 points.

    One more victory:  around September 1, proFootballFocus.com had four experts take over/under picks in each of the eight divisions.  I took the opportunity to put my own eight picks in their comments sections.  The experts have had a bit less than 50% success after eight weeks, and I have been crushing them all.  You may have to go back a long way to find the appropriate web pages, but they're publicly available.  I took the over on both Pittsburgh and New England, so no significant net gain or loss on that game.

    Note:  I don’t gamble money even if I know the odds are good.  It's a moral issue for me.  However, I can forecast.  So, let’s put my winning streak on the line.

    This week’s Game of the Week: 

    chi   phi    -0.7   8.5   -9.2

    One blowout does not a super bowl team make.  How do the Iggles want to explain away the rest of their games this year?  Philly is good and they basked in the bye week effect last week, but this week the Bears come off of the bye week. 

    Other picks:

    mia   kc    11.7   5   6.7

    KC shut out Oakland 28-0 and seems to be living up to that blowout.  I went with KC on Monday Night and they did the deed.  I won’t really respect Miami just because they almost beat the lousy Giants, or almost beat Tim Tebow, cmon!

    tb   no    1.9   8.5   -6.6

    My numbers have lost a bit of respect for New Orleans.  How can anyone fall down so hard against St. Louis?  Yes the Saints beat Indianapolis bigtime, but so did your grandma.  I don’t think the Bucs will win but the point spread is nice.  Good news department:  every N.O. loss brings a higher first round pick for the Patriots in 2012.

     
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