WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

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    WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

         Like you, I'm still bummed out over the Pats' pathetic performance in Pittsburgh (try to say that fast three times...LOL!!). So, as a self-help means to promote rapid recovery, I'm moving on to week 9, in which the "Game of the Week" is:

    1.) (5-2) Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ (5-2) Pittsburgh Steelers: This one should be a war. The Steelers have been playing great football, and manhandled the Patriots last week. But, they face the prospect of being with both DE/OLB LaMarr Woodley (hamstring), and DE/OLB James Harrison (eye). The Buzzards were fortunate to beat Arizona last week, as the Cardinals blew a 24-6 third quarter lead. The Steelers will be seeking revenge for the 35-7 pasting at the claws of the Buzzards on opening day. Got to like "Big Ben" over Joe Flacco:
    PICK: Steelers;  

    2.) (4-3) Atlanta Falcons @ (0-8) Indianapolis Colts (+7): Can't believe that the spread is so low. Currently, the Colts are by far the worst team in the game. Though Indy management and players deny tanking this year to obtain the rights to QB Andrew Luck, it'ss obvious that this is exactly what management is doing. Otherwise, why does the "Plastic Man", Jim Caldwell, still have his job?
    PICK: Falcons;

    3.) (4-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) @ (5-3) New Orleans Saints: Last time the Saints were upset on the road, they came home and destroyed the hapless Colts. This time, it's the Bucs turn, as the Saints will soundly avenge a 26-20 defeat in Tampa:
    PICK: Saints;

    4.) (3-4) Cleveland Browns (+10.5) @ (5-3) Houston Texans: WR Andre Johnson may be back from a hamstring injury for this one. But, even if he isn't, the Texans should be able to ground and pound the Browns, who are 26th in the league against the run. Colt McCoy's return to Texas won't be a happy one:
    PICK: Texans;
     
    5.) (4-3) N.Y. Jets (+1.5) @ (5-2) Buffalo Bills:
    The Bills keep on winning, somehow...and are beginning to look like legitimate contenders. The Jets need this game badly, lest they fall 2 games behind both the Pats and the Bills:
    PICK: Bills;

    6.) (0-7) Miami Dolphins (+5.5) @ (4-3) Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City has a huge Monday night game tonight against the Chargers, whom they should have beaten earlier in the season, in San Diego. Miami has nearly knocked themselves out of the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes the past two weeks. They blew that Tebow game against Denver, in which they squandered a 15-0 4th quarter lead. They also outplayed and led the Giants most of the way last week. Even if their own fans no longer care, Colts' fans do:
    PICK: Dolphins;

    7.) (6-1) San Francisco 49ers @ (3-4) Washington Redskins (+3.5): The Redskins have lost three straight games. The 49ers will increase that total to 4:
    PICK: 49ers;

    8.) (2-5) Seattle Seahawks (+12) @ (3-4) Dallas Cowboys: The next big game that Tony Romo wins will be his first. But, this is not, on paper at least, a big game. But, it's a huge game for the Cowboys, as they fight to stay alive in the mediocre NFC East:
    PICK: Cowboys;

    9.) (2-5) Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ (4-3) Oakland Raiders: Both teams have a messy situation at QB. Tim Tebow gets another chance to embarrass himself, while the Raiders hope that Carson Palmer has chipped off enough rust and learned enough of the offense not to embarrass himself, again. 
    PICK: Broncos;

    10.) (5-2) Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ (4-3) Tennessee Titans: The Bengals have won four in a row. Their young QB, Andy Dalton, is looking better with each start. Meanwhile, in Tennessee, the mystery of the now rich, but ineffective RB, Chris Johnson, continues:
    PICK: Bengals;

    11.) (1-6) St. Louis Rams (+4) @ (1-6) Arizona Cardinals: A loss to the Rams could jettison the Cards into the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes. Nonetheless, the Cards had the Buzzards on the ropes in Baltimore last week, but couldn't put them away:
    PICK: Cardinals;

    12.) (5-2) N.Y. Giants (+8.5) @ (5-2) New England Patriots: The Patriots' offense has been off knocked off kilter now, for two weeks in a row. Their defense has been a mess all season long. This is a huge game for both teams...and could determine which of the two is a serious contender to win their respective division. Based on what we saw against the Steelers, I don't see how the Pats can be made 8.5 point favorites. Furthermore, a "blueprint" has seemingly emerged to stop Tom Brady, and to take advantage of the Pats' porous pass defense:
    PICK: Giants;

    13.) (7-0) Green Bay Packers @ (4-3) San Diego Chargers (+5.5): How the Chargers do against the Chiefs tonight, and the Packers this coming Sunday, will shed light on whether they will seriously contend in the AFC.:
    PICK: Packers;

    14.) (4-3) Chicago Bears @ (3-4) Philadelphia Eagles (+7):
    A must game for both teams, as they try to improve their chances for a playoff birth:
    PICK: Eagles.

         BEST BETS: Falcons, Saints, 49ers, Bengals, Steelers.    

         As always, your opinions and predictions are welcome, especially on the Giants/Pats game.
               
      
               
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ccnsd. Show ccnsd's posts

    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

     The Giants offense has a lot of offensive weapons. We will probably see Eli airing it out a lot this weekend so we better be prepared for watching it.
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    You have odds before the Monday Night game is played.  That's impressive!
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

     I am not convinced there is a blueprint. If your offense can dominate time of posession against the Pats and you can pressure Brady you have huge advantages and that "blueprint" will work against everyone. When the Pats offense struggles it is usually because the offensive line struggles. If Brady gets the time he will destroy a defense I do not care how talented it is. The Pats offense can not be expected to score on any drive (especoially against the top defenses like the Steelers, Jets or Ravens). The defense has to get off the field on 3rd down better and force the other team to punt. The Steelers played a great game and the Pats still almost pulled it out. People think the offense stinks now if it does not score 30 points a game, the Steelers do not give up 30 points a game that often. Great performances like the one the Pats had in 2010 are the exception, not the rule. The Pats prepared for a certain Steelers and a diferrent one showed up, good for them they earned it. The Giants are fairly similar to the Steelers when healthy. A team that has a reputation as a running team which is actually a much better passing team. They also have a good head coach who actually knows when to challenge a play without having to see a replay (who ever is in charge of telling Bill when to challenge a play must have been distracted by a hot dog or is just a yes man afraid to speak up). I expect the Pats to win a nail biter but I am not confident.
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
     I am not convinced there is a blueprint. If your offense can dominate time of posession against the Pats and you can pressure Brady you have huge advantages and that "blueprint" will work against everyone. When the Pats offense struggles it is usually because the offensive line struggles. If Brady gets the time he will destroy a defense I do not care how talented it is. The Pats offense can not be expected to score on any drive (especoially against the top defenses like the Steelers, Jets or Ravens). The defense has to get off the field on 3rd down better and force the other team to punt. The Steelers played a great game and the Pats still almost pulled it out. People think the offense stinks now if it does not score 30 points a game, the Steelers do not give up 30 points a game that often.
     
    RESPONSE: The Pats' "D" is built to play with a lead. Their "D" is such that the offense practically needs to score 30 points or more per game to win.

    Great performances like the one the Pats had in 2010 are the exception, not the rule.
     
    RESPONSE: What's different on this offense from last year? The personnel is the same. So, why isn't the 2011 offense as good as the 2010 offense was?

    The Pats prepared for a certain Steelers and a different one showed up, good for them they earned it.
     
    RESPONSE: No excuse. The Pats came out flat, and had two weeks to prepare for this game.

    The Giants are fairly similar to the Steelers when healthy. A team that has a reputation as a running team which is actually a much better passing team. They also have a good head coach who actually knows when to challenge a play without having to see a replay (who ever is in charge of telling Bill when to challenge a play must have been distracted by a hot dog or is just a yes man afraid to speak up). I expect the Pats to win a nail biter but I am not confident.

    RESPONSE: I tend to agree. The Pats should win. But, not by 9 points or more. The way to beat the Giants is to run on them, and set up the play action pass. BJGE needs to get healthy...and the infactuation with 34 year old Kevin Faulk needs to cease. If BJGE can't go at 100%, get Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, and Shane Vereen in there. 
    Posted by ccnsd
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    I agree and disagree about the blueprint.  I see some lessons learned,  I do not fear the Giants because they lack the one thing the Stealers had last Sunday,  A QB who can make the have to have it pass. How many 3rd and longs did he convert?  I do not see Eli Manning making those throws. So, what are we faced with?  We have to figure out two teams, the Stealers and the Bills. I see us having to face each of them in the Post Season and barring a significant injury loss the Bills can score enough to win against our D and the Stealers can keep our offense on the bicycles trying to stay warm.
    Posted by Geographer91


    I tend to agree with you about Eli, he just has the feel of a guy who won't make the big play consistently.  With that in mind, he has a 134 passer rating in the 4th quarter this year and has led 4 4th quarter comebacks.  So I guess we have to hope he reverts to his old ways against the NE 32nd ranked pass defense.

    P.s.  SteElers
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    I agree and disagree about the blueprint.  I see some lessons learned,

    1. If the defense is going against a power offense like the Stealers then we need to score first, no deferring the toss anymore. Take a chance to be in front
    2. Go for it, we actually played well against the run but the Stealers did not fear our pass rush, we used to mix up blitzes from the corners or safeties to keep the QB honest.
    3. Learn to slow down, we have been doing great at the hurry up this season but we seem to have more difficulty in playing a calm set of downs.  The Stealers did what we did to the JETS, they kept the ball and our defense on the field, their offense against our tired defense.

    I do not fear the Giants because they lack the one thing the Stealers had last Sunday,  A QB who can make the have to have it pass. How many 3rd and longs did he convert?  I do not see Eli Manning making those throws.


    So, what are we faced with?  We have to figure out two teams, the Stealers and the Bills. I see us having to face each of them in the Post Season and barring a significant injury loss the Bills can score enough to win against our D and the Stealers can keep our offense on the bicycles trying to stay warm.
     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    Grumble.  It’s a Patriots loss against a pretty good team, an away game too, but the Pats are notable for being 13 points down late in the game.  Note:  in the flash ratings I inputted 8 points down but sometimes I goof.  It was 13 points down with 3 minutes to go by my rules, which I try to follow.

    I didn’t like the Patriots performance.  If Pittsburgh can stuff the Patriots’ offense with 10 guys on the line of scrimmage and 1 deep, maybe someone else can also.  Same for the defense.

    In any case, here are the ratings: 

    1   gb   13.7   (last wk. 1)

    2   det   12.9   (last wk. 7)  pound pound pound…  What else would we expect?

    3   pit   11.7   (last wk. 11)  They took a big jump here.

    4   sf   11.5   (last wk. 4)  SF got a somewhat comfortable win at home against a bozo.  Not too much was new to my stats.

    5   ne   11.2   (last wk. 2)  Slightly surprising how little New England dropped.  In my ratings it also matters how everyone’s opponents did.

    6   phi   10.9   (last wk. 14)  Dallas is normally a pretty good team, but this game was cruel and unusual.

    7   buf   10.5   (last wk. 9)

    8   chi   10.4   (last wk. 8)

    9   hou   10.2   (last wk. 5)  They couldn’t beat J-ville that easily?

    10   bal   10.0   (last wk. 6)  They almost couldn’t beat who?

    11   no   9.6   (last wk. 3)  Whatever is wrong with N.O.?  And, why won’t the same thing happen next week?

    12   atl   9.5   (last wk. 12)

    13   cin   9.4   (last wk. 15)

    14   nyj   9.4   (last wk. 10)

    15   dal   8.5   (last wk. 13)

    16   oak   7.9   (last wk. 16)

    17   min   7.7   (last wk. 21)  Even the dead can walk again in the NFL.

    18   tb   7.4   (last wk. 17)

    19   sd   7.0   (last wk. 19)

    20   ten   7.0   (last wk. 24)  Some of the dead can stagger again.

     

    21   kc   6.9   (last wk. 20)

    22   car   6.7   (last wk. 18)

    23   jac   6.6   (last wk. 22)

    24   nyg   6.1   (last wk. 23)

    25   sea   5.7   (last wk. 25)

    26   was   5.0   (last wk. 27)

    27   az   5.0   (last wk. 30)

    28   cle   4.5   (last wk. 29)

    29   mia   4.2   (last wk. 28)  Minor signs of life against the (koff) Giants.

    30   den   4.0   (last wk. 26)  Some of the dead can’t even roll over in their graves.

    31   stl   3.0   (last wk. 32)  One victory does not an actual team make. 

    32   ind   2.1   (last wk. 31)  Zero chances of victories doesn’t even make a good zombie.

    My point spreads

    Vis  Home / My Points / The gambling public’s opinion / Dfference

    cle   hou    11.6   12   -0.4

    sf   was    -6.6   -3.5   -4.1

    tb   no    1.9   8.5   -6.6

    mia   kc    11.7   5   6.7

    sea   dal    7.4   12   -4.6

    atl   ind    -12.5   -7.5   -5.0

    nyj   buf    0.3   0.5   -0.2

    cin   ten    -0.6   2.5   -3.1

    den   oak    13.4   8.5   4.9

    stl   az    6.0   4   2.0

    gb   sd    -12.4   -6.5   -5.9

    nyg   ne    10.8   9   1.8

    bal   pit    5.7   3   2.7

    chi   phi    -0.7   8.5   -9.2

    I now have successfully called my game of the week four weeks in a row.  Last week was San Francisco to cruise a minimum of 9 points ahead of Cleveland.  The spread was close, but they cruised.  I had a great winning record on my game of the week late last year too.  And I still don't understand the idea of taking slobbery candy from a baby.  What can I do with a whole drawer full of the stuff?

    In addition, all three of last week's other predictions also came in.

    Buffalo was way more than 6 points better than Washington.

    Denver was not exactly 3.5 points better than Detroit. No way!

    I favored KC plus the points.  As of last Tuesday Vegas favored San Diego by 3.5 points.  The point spread, at least, was in the bag when KC went 8 points up.  Even if SD could tie the game and then kick a winning field goal, that would only be 3 points.

    One more victory:  around September 1, proFootballFocus.com had four experts take over/under picks in each of the eight divisions.  I took the opportunity to put my own eight picks in their comments sections.  The experts have had a bit less than 50% success after eight weeks, and I have been crushing them all.  You may have to go back a long way to find the appropriate web pages, but they're publicly available.  I took the over on both Pittsburgh and New England, so no significant net gain or loss on that game.

    Note:  I don’t gamble money even if I know the odds are good.  It's a moral issue for me.  However, I can forecast.  So, let’s put my winning streak on the line.

    This week’s Game of the Week: 

    chi   phi    -0.7   8.5   -9.2

    One blowout does not a super bowl team make.  How do the Iggles want to explain away the rest of their games this year?  Philly is good and they basked in the bye week effect last week, but this week the Bears come off of the bye week. 

    Other picks:

    mia   kc    11.7   5   6.7

    KC shut out Oakland 28-0 and seems to be living up to that blowout.  I went with KC on Monday Night and they did the deed.  I won’t really respect Miami just because they almost beat the lousy Giants, or almost beat Tim Tebow, cmon!

    tb   no    1.9   8.5   -6.6

    My numbers have lost a bit of respect for New Orleans.  How can anyone fall down so hard against St. Louis?  Yes the Saints beat Indianapolis bigtime, but so did your grandma.  I don’t think the Bucs will win but the point spread is nice.  Good news department:  every N.O. loss brings a higher first round pick for the Patriots in 2012.

     
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    Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK 9 NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    I agree and disagree about the blueprint.  I see some lessons learned, 1. If the defense is going against a power offense like the Stealers then we need to score first, no deferring the toss anymore. Take a chance to be in front
     
    RESPONSE: Don't see this as an issue.

    2. Go for it, we actually played well against the run but the Stealers did not fear our pass rush, we used to mix up blitzes from the corners or safeties to keep the QB honest.
     
    RESPONSE: The secondary is terrible. The fear is that if the blitzes don't get the job done, that the Pats will get burnt deep.

    3. Learn to slow down, we have been doing great at the hurry up this season but we seem to have more difficulty in playing a calm set of downs.  The Stealers did what we did to the JETS, they kept the ball and our defense on the field, their offense against our tired defense. I do not fear the Giants because they lack the one thing the Stealers had last Sunday,  A QB who can make the have to have it pass. How many 3rd and longs did he convert?  I do not see Eli Manning making those throws.
     
    RESPONSE: Eli Manning has put together three good games in a row, with no picks.

    So, what are we faced with?  We have to figure out two teams, the Stealers and the Bills. I see us having to face each of them in the Post Season and barring a significant injury loss the Bills can score enough to win against our D and the Stealers can keep our offense on the bicycles trying to stay warm.

    RESPONSE: The secondary is pathetic. Be nice to strangers you may meet...they may eventually end up playing in the Patriots' secondary this season. BB makes good draft day trades...getting value, and extra picks. But, since 2006, he's done a horrible job selecting the right players with those picks. It's time for BB the coach to fire BB the GM. Or...perhaps the scouting director deserves the blame. In any event, changes need to be made. Enough is enough.
    Posted by Geographer91
     
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