Last week was ugly for me.  Small calls: 3–1.  Biggest calls:  1 – 4. Groan. 

At this point the bookie thoughtfully says, “You can always join this religious cult that I know about in Idaho, you know, they’re a bit strict, you chant before dawn, sacrifice a few goats at midnight, nobody really ever comes back from there.”  But that would be a faith worse than debt.

Season Totals: 5-3 small calls, 4-5 big calls.  Putting 2 points on a big call and 1 point on a small call, I’ve broken even. 

In reality, putting no actual points on any of my calls, I’ve done better than almost all gamblers everywhere.  I’m simply trying to find out if I get any signal at all, versus the spread, over a long time.  Onward to week 8.

sea       dal            6.5            9.5            -3.0  small for seattle

cle        chi            4.4            13.5            -9.1  large for Cleveland to cover

hou       buf            1.5            -3.5            5.0  large for buffalo

jac        ten            0.1            3            -2.9  small for jacksonville

nyg       phi            2.1            3            -0.9  too insignificant to call, but Eagles wr curtis is out.  -2 for phi gives a small for nyg.

oak      sd            13.0            17            -4.0  sitting on my significance borderline, so I’ll say large for Oakland to cover

car       az            16.3            9            7.3  large for Arizona to blow out Carolina

atl         no            5.9            10            -4.1  large for Atlanta to cover.

Biggest calls:  Cleveland, Buffalo, Oakland, Arizona, Atlanta

 

stl         det            5.2            no odds line yet.  So far I have Detroit by 5.2 points.

mia       nyj            2.0            3.5            -1.5  too insignificant to call versus the spread

den       bal            2.7            3            -0.3  too insignificant to call

sf          ind            13.3            11.5            1.8  too insignificant to call

min       gb            0.7            3            -2.3  was small for min, Vikings CB Winfield out.  -2 points. injury reduces this to insignificant.