Last week was ugly for me. Small calls: 3–1. Biggest calls: 1 – 4. Groan.
At this point the bookie thoughtfully says, “You can always join this religious cult that I know about in Idaho, you know, they’re a bit strict, you chant before dawn, sacrifice a few goats at midnight, nobody really ever comes back from there.” But that would be a faith worse than debt.
Season Totals: 5-3 small calls, 4-5 big calls. Putting 2 points on a big call and 1 point on a small call, I’ve broken even.
In reality, putting no actual points on any of my calls, I’ve done better than almost all gamblers everywhere. I’m simply trying to find out if I get any signal at all, versus the spread, over a long time. Onward to week 8.
sea dal 6.5 9.5 -3.0 small for seattle
cle chi 4.4 13.5 -9.1 large for Cleveland to cover
hou buf 1.5 -3.5 5.0 large for buffalo
jac ten 0.1 3 -2.9 small for jacksonville
nyg phi 2.1 3 -0.9 too insignificant to call, but Eagles wr curtis is out. -2 for phi gives a small for nyg.
oak sd 13.0 17 -4.0 sitting on my significance borderline, so I’ll say large for Oakland to cover
car az 16.3 9 7.3 large for Arizona to blow out Carolina
atl no 5.9 10 -4.1 large for Atlanta to cover.
Biggest calls: Cleveland, Buffalo, Oakland, Arizona, Atlanta
stl det 5.2 no odds line yet. So far I have Detroit by 5.2 points.
mia nyj 2.0 3.5 -1.5 too insignificant to call versus the spread
den bal 2.7 3 -0.3 too insignificant to call
sf ind 13.3 11.5 1.8 too insignificant to call
min gb 0.7 3 -2.3 was small for min, Vikings CB Winfield out. -2 points. injury reduces this to insignificant.