WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

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    WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

     

    Sometimes one team stands out at the top or at the bottom.  Not this week.  This week we have a tiny semblance of “Parity”, an elusive NFL concept that forces New England to have almost as many sub-.500 seasons as above-.500 seasons.  New England is in a bunch, near the top, next to Houston.  Both Denver and San Diego have been making a slow move up, although last week’s game between the two didn’t change things on this power ratings scale.  That’s it for the weak AFC, except possibly for the Jets.  The NFC has 9 out of the top 13 Halloween spots.

    1          gb            13.6            (last wk.      2            )

    2          sf            12.8            (last wk.      1            )

    3          hou            12.7            (last wk.      5            )

    4          ne            12.4            (last wk.      3            )

    5          atl            11.2            (last wk.      6            )

    6          nyg            11.2            (last wk.      4            )

    7          chi            10.5            (last wk.      7            )

    8          den            10.3            (last wk.      8            )

    9          sd            10.1            (last wk.      9            )

    10        no            9.6            (last wk.      13            )

    11        sea            9.5            (last wk.      10            )

    12        dal            9.4            (last wk.      11            )

    13        min            8.9            (last wk.      14            )

    14        nyj            8.8            (last wk.      15            )

    15        bal            8.2            (last wk.      12            )

    16        pit            7.9            (last wk.      17            )

    17        was            7.6            (last wk.      21            )

    18        det            6.9            (last wk.      18            )

    19        tb            6.3            (last wk.      20            )

    20        car            6.2            (last wk.      19            )

    21        cin            6.2            (last wk.      16            )

    22        mia            6.1            (last wk.      23            )

    23        phi            6.0            (last wk.      22            )

    24        ten            5.4            (last wk.      28            )

    25        oak            5.4            (last wk.      26            )

    26        buf            5.2            (last wk.      25            )

    27        ind            5.1            (last wk.      31            )

    28        cle            5.0            (last wk.      24            )

    29        stl            4.7            (last wk.      27            )

    30        kc            4.5            (last wk.      32            )

    31        az            4.3            (last wk.      29            )

    32        jac            3.8            (last wk.      30            )

    My week 8 point spread forecasts:

    visitor/home/my forecast/the gambling public's opinion / difference

    tb         min                               5.7            6.5            -0.8

    ind        ten                                3.3            3.5            -0.2

    sd         cle                                -4.3            -2.5            -1.8

    was      pit                                2.3            5.0            -2.7

    mia       nyj                                3.8            2.5            1.3

    sea       det                               1.1            2.5            -1.4

    jac        gb                                21.3            13.0            8.3

    car       chi                                10.0            8.0            2.0

    atl         phi                                -4.8            2.0            -6.8

    ne         stl                                 -9.2            -6.5            -2.7

    oak      kc                                4.9            2.0            2.9

    nyg       dal                                0.9            -1.5            2.4

    no        den                               9.4            6.0            3.4

    sf          az                                 -5.2            -6.5            1.3

    My last week’s game of the week was a wash.  Chicago had Detroit down by 13 points, the way things were supposed to happen, and then Detroit scored a touchdown with 30 seconds to go.  For 2012 I’m at 3-2 with two washes.

    This week’s game of the week is Atlanta, getting 2 points at Philadelphia.  Philly has been playing more like a 6-10 team despite their mediocre 3-3 record.  Atlanta is 6-0 and an underdog.  Over the past 3 years Philly has been a better road team than a home team.  Both teams had bye weeks, so that’s a wash.  Atlanta has a few players who might have benefited from a rest:  Jonathan Babineaux and Stephen Nicholas make that list.  The Eagles’ offensive line probably healed some on their own off week.  I doubt that Michael Vick learned to hang on to the football in 2 weeks.

    atl         phi                                -4.8            2.0            -6.8

    Other picks:

    When I don’t like overdogs I say so -- New England versus the Jets last week, for example.  Green Bay is a big overdog versus Jacksonville.  I bumped this overdog game down from being game of the week because overdog games are never sure things, but Green Bay should still roll.  Poor Jacksonville couldn’t even win their bye week game versus lousy Oakland, and then the Jags lost Maurice Jones-Drew, almost their only offensive player.

    jac        gb                                21.3            13.0            8.3

    Leaners:  Denver had a bye week.  It could be a bit rough for a Southern dome team like New Orleans to play in Denver’s mile-high air, and also the game is at night when the temperature drops. 

     

    I'm not doing that well this year.  What say you?

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    i say it's hard for me to believe you have sf 4 spots above my giants after the beating we gave them...24-20 ok but 26-3 in their home? no I cant quite figure that

    [/QUOTE]

    I have to predict how the Giants are going to do next Sunday against Dallas, a reasonably average NFL team.  Maybe the Giants practice 3 weeks straight for a San Francisco game at the expense of playing badly against average teams.  Maybe the G-Men's thing is beating great teams, but Dallas isn't San Francisco.  I have to go equally by the Giants' modest ability to put away mediocre Washington this past week.  With a minute and a half left to go in the game, and at a home game, the Giants let division rival Washington get ahead by 3 points.   What kind of a superpower team lets this happen to them?  Where were they for the first 58 minutes of the game?  Yes, Eli quickly hit a 77 yard bomb to pull the victory out of his helmet, and that counts too in my system, but leaving the score close isn't what great teams do.  You might look at "Casey At the Bat", an ancient poem where Mighty Casey lets the first two strikes slide past him, then whiffs on the third pitch.

    By the same token, New England would have put the Jets away pretty quickly if they were feeling their oats.  The Jets are playing slightly better than Washington.  In the end New England lost a few tenths off of their power rating for not beating the Jets convincingly. 

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Paul_K's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    dont u take factors such as division rival games into account? a teams home and away record? the first time seeing a unique OB like RG3? what about match-ups? and this idea of "what kind of a great team lets that happen to them?" is a**inine and shows the silliness of weekly rankings...no team in the history of mankind ever played great every week, none, zero so that this is some sort of criteria is inane-how about the greatness of playing poorly and still winning? how about the idea that the greatest have off days?

    I don't think the Pats or Giants ought to lose points or drop in the rankings due to these past two games considering the above

    btw I notice the 4-3 Pats who lost to Seattle and squeaked by the Jets have somehow managed to never fall out of the Top 5...i dont think they've even hit number 5...gee, how can a super rational and logical PC program using only cold hard data somehow have this occur?

    I think it has a "Pats Bias" glitch  :  )

    [/QUOTE]

    No, I don't overweight division rivals games.  If you can't beat the team in front of you, you probably can't beat a division rival either. 

    Washington is a division rival and these games count as tiebreakers for the Giants' division championship. 

    This is the first time that six other teams saw RG3.  I can't hold that against Washington, or give the Giants anything special.  It's also the first time that seven teams saw Quinton Coples, but he turned out to be pretty ineffectual as a rookie, so I can't really give anything special for new peoples' reputations. 

    I just count margins of victory.  I trim off meaningless last second points because mickey mouse scoring doesn't predict the future.  I reduce the effects of big blowouts by just a smidgen.  Then I weight these margins numerically, in order to catch major shifts due to recent injuries. 

    Yes, the Patriots have been way up there in my ratings for about 3 years. During that time, the Patriots have been 10-6, 14-2 and 13-3.   My ratings have been biased toward accuracy. 

    Your Giants are playing either great or mediocre, not week in and week out, but mediocre half the time -- against Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington and maybe Tampa Bay.  Next week they can be expected to play pretty much the same as before.  I have Dallas by a miniscule 0.9 points, a home dog with not particularly significant legs. 

     

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Paul_K's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Paul_K's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    dont u take factors such as division rival games into account? a teams home and away record? the first time seeing a unique OB like RG3? what about match-ups? and this idea of "what kind of a great team lets that happen to them?" is a**inine and shows the silliness of weekly rankings...no team in the history of mankind ever played great every week, none, zero so that this is some sort of criteria is inane-how about the greatness of playing poorly and still winning? how about the idea that the greatest have off days?

    I don't think the Pats or Giants ought to lose points or drop in the rankings due to these past two games considering the above

    btw I notice the 4-3 Pats who lost to Seattle and squeaked by the Jets have somehow managed to never fall out of the Top 5...i dont think they've even hit number 5...gee, how can a super rational and logical PC program using only cold hard data somehow have this occur?

    I think it has a "Pats Bias" glitch  :  )

    [/QUOTE]

    No, I don't overweight division rivals games.  If you can't beat the team in front of you, you probably can't beat a division rival either. 

    Washington is a division rival and these games count as tiebreakers for the Giants' division championship. 

    This is the first time that six other teams saw RG3.  I can't hold that against Washington, or give the Giants anything special.  It's also the first time that seven teams saw Quinton Coples, but he turned out to be pretty ineffectual as a rookie, so I can't really give anything special for new peoples' reputations. 

    I just count margins of victory.  I trim off meaningless last second points because mickey mouse scoring doesn't predict the future.  I reduce the effects of big blowouts by just a smidgen.  Then I weight these margins numerically, in order to catch major shifts due to recent injuries. 

    Yes, the Patriots have been way up there in my ratings for about 3 years. During that time, the Patriots have been 10-6, 14-2 and 13-3.   My ratings have been biased toward accuracy. 

    Your Giants are playing either great or mediocre, not week in and week out, but mediocre half the time -- against Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington and maybe Tampa Bay.  Next week they can be expected to play pretty much the same as before.  I have Dallas by a miniscule 0.9 points, a home dog with not particularly significant legs. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    well i dont think the giants necessarily played mediocre vs dallas or philly, just lost two 2 pretty good teams that are also div rivals...and i still dont see how the 4-3 pats playing like they have have not dropped below 4 all season

    guess we have different ranking criteria

    [/QUOTE]


    Jints... You're slow.  Its a simple argument that puts NE in top five . It goes something like this :

    Patriots have lost 3games in improbable fashion ... Winning 2 of these  games puts them at 6-1.

    NE has Brady . This just in... He's really good . Fiercely competitive leader . 1St ranked offense.

    Defense , though statistically  bad , are solid up the middle ( wilfork, mayo, spikes , and now mccourty. With emerging edge standouts Jones ,nink, Hightower and dennard.

    this team has most of its SB caliber players back and drafted well.

    care to argue who's better...?

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    Fiercely competitive produces better leadership over the course of a season which translates into corrected mistakes and a better record going forward.

    computer rankings that crunch numbers don't tell the whle story.  Improbable means if you're leading in the 4 th qtr you're going to win most of those games.  Lucky Eli plays do happen but eventually luck runs out and probability takes over. 

     

     

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    Jints is right having the 4-3 Patriots in the top 5 destroys the credibility of your ranking system.

    I'm a fan I hope the Pats are at the top at the end of the year, and on some level think they very well could be.  But right now top 5 is a stretch at best.

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to markrahobeth's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Jints is right having the 4-3 Patriots in the top 5 destroys the credibility of your ranking system.

    I'm a fan I hope the Pats are at the top at the end of the year, and on some level think they very well could be.  But right now top 5 is a stretch at best.

    [/QUOTE]

    If you had just flown in from some place where "football" is always a round ball that you kick, and someone had told you that Brady-Belichick were consistently 12-4 for 11 years running, and that the last two years they were 14-2 and 13-3, would a power rating of 12.4 victories out of 16 bother you? 

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to Paul_K's comment:

    If you had just flown in from some place where "football" is always a round ball that you kick, and someone had told you that Brady-Belichick were consistently 12-4 for 11 years running, and that the last two years they were 14-2 and 13-3, would a power rating of 12.4 victories out of 16 bother you?


    Keep up the good work Paul_K. The Patriots are 14-2 in November and December the last two seasons, including 8-0 in December.

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

     

    [/QUOTE]

    No, I don't overweight division rivals games.  If you can't beat the team in front of you, you probably can't beat a division rival either. 

    Washington is a division rival and these games count as tiebreakers for the Giants' division championship. 

    This is the first time that six other teams saw RG3.  I can't hold that against Washington, or give the Giants anything special.  It's also the first time that seven teams saw Quinton Coples, but he turned out to be pretty ineffectual as a rookie, so I can't really give anything special for new peoples' reputations. 

    I just count margins of victory.  I trim off meaningless last second points because mickey mouse scoring doesn't predict the future.  I reduce the effects of big blowouts by just a smidgen.  Then I weight these margins numerically, in order to catch major shifts due to recent injuries. 

    Yes, the Patriots have been way up there in my ratings for about 3 years. During that time, the Patriots have been 10-6, 14-2 and 13-3.   My ratings have been biased toward accuracy. 

    Your Giants are playing either great or mediocre, not week in and week out, but mediocre half the time -- against Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington and maybe Tampa Bay.  Next week they can be expected to play pretty much the same as before.  I have Dallas by a miniscule 0.9 points, a home dog with not particularly significant legs. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    well i dont think the giants necessarily played mediocre vs dallas or philly, just lost two 2 pretty good teams that are also div rivals...and i still dont see how the 4-3 pats playing like they have have not dropped below 4 all season

    guess we have different ranking criteria

    [/QUOTE]

    I like the Giants to win big this week over the Cowboys. Hard to believe that the point spread is so low. The Giants will be highly motivated after losing to the 'Boys in NY on opening day, and after those silly comments by Jerry Jones guaranteeing a Cowboys' win in Dallas. After crushing SF on the road, and holding off a tough Washington team that beat them twice last year, I see the Giants as currently being the top team in the NFL.

     

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Fiercely competitive produces better leadership over the course of a season which translates into corrected mistakes and a better record going forward.

    computer rankings that crunch numbers don't tell the whle story.  Improbable means if you're leading in the 4 th qtr you're going to win most of those games.  Lucky Eli plays do happen but eventually luck runs out and probability takes over. 

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    let me know when that probability takes over ok?

    [/QUOTE]


    in the case of the jints and lucky Eli... Luck runs out this week and cowboys roll.

    for the pats , probability took over last week and they won the game. They had the lead on these teams for a reason , actually several.  that  win is one of many that will follow .

     

     

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    [/QUOTE]

    I like the Giants to win big this week over the Cowboys. Hard to believe that the point spread is so low. The Giants will be highly motivated after losing to the 'Boys in NY on opening day, and after those silly comments by Jerry Jones guaranteeing a Cowboys' win in Dallas. After crushing SF on the road, and holding off a tough Washington team that beat them twice last year, I see the Giants as currently being the top team in the NFL.

     In Response to JintsFan's comment:

    if gmen win and do so convincingly then i agree...but never an easy game in dallas

    [/QUOTE]

         What did I tell you, Jints??

     
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    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

         Hey Jints...maybe I spoke too soon? 23-0...now 23-17?? What's going on? Where is that Giants' pass rush today? Victor Cruz has more drops today than catches.

     
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