WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

         The Pats shot themselves in the foot by losing to the Clown Car Jets, 30-27, in OT. By so doing, they blew a golden opportunity to ice away another AFC East title, and an iside tract at earning an playoff bye. Next up are the Miami Dolphins, in Foxborough. As you saw Sunday, nothing can be taken for granted when it comes to the 2013 Patriots' edition. Here are my Week 8 picks, with the "Game of the Week" being:

    1.) (4-3) Dallas Cowboys (+3) @ (4-3) Detroit Lions: Though this is hardly a marquee game, it seemed to be the best match-up of the week. The Lions are coming off a stinging three (3) point loss to the Bengals at Detroit, while the Cowboys are fresh off a solid win over the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Lions can ill afford a second straight home loss, in their quest to keep pace with the Green Bay Packers. Dallas holds a 1.5 game lead over the second place Eagles in the NFC Least: PICK: Lions;

    2.) (3-3) Carolina Panthers @ (0-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5): Carolina is evolving into one of the top teams in the NFC. They've won 3 of their last 4 games, and have outscored their opposition, albeit the Vikings and the Rams, by a 65-25 count. As for the Bucs...well...let's stop here: PICK: Panthers;

    3.) (5-2) San Francisco 49ers @ (0-7) Jacksonville Jaguars (+16.5): After hitting an early season speed bump, the 49ers have won four straight games, scoring at least 31 points in each of those wins. Meanwhile, the Jaguars continue down that road to oblivion: PICK: 49ers;

    4.) (1-6) NY Giants (+5.5) @ (3-4) Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick returns this week, and will start. Just in time, too...as the Nick Foles led Eagles were held to just three (3) points last weekend by the Cowboys. As a result, the Eagles received even louder boos from the Philly faithful than did Santa Claus. After notching their first win of the season on Monday night, are the Giants primed to make a run at respectability?: PICK: Giants;

    5.) (3-4) Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ (7-0) Kansas City Chiefs: The Browns lacked decent QB play ever since Brian Hoyer went down with a season ending knee injury. Despite all that media noise about how the Denver Horsefaces were the greatest team ever assembled, it is the Chiefs who currently occupy first place in the AFC West: PICK: Chiefs;

    6.) (3-4) Buffalo Bills (+12) @ (5-1) New Orleans Saints: Though the Bills are below .500, they have been in every game they've played this season. But, playing New Orleans in their dome, with a well rested Saints team coming off its bye week, is a very tall order: PICK: Saints;

    7.) (3-3) Miami Dolphins (+6.5) @ (5-2) New England Patriots: After winning their first three games, the 'Fins have lost their last three. Saddled with a struggling OL and a weak running game, Miami appears to be made to order for the Patriots. My guess is that the 'Fins will be dealing with a motivated, very angry Patriots' team this Sunday: PICK: Patriots;

    8.) (4-3) NY Jets (+6.5) @ (5-2) Cincinnati Bengals: The Jets gained  confidence and some credibility, at least in the eyes of some, as a result of them beating the Patriots last weekend. How they perform in Cincinnati will go a long way in determining whether they are a good club, and a legitimate AFC East contender: PICK: Bengals;

    9.) (2-4) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (2-4) Oakland Raiders (+3): The Steelers at least momentarily saved their season by edging the Baltimore Buzzards in Pittsburgh. The Raiders are...well...the Raiders: PICK: Steelers;

    10.) (2-4) Washington Redskins (+13) @ (6-1) Denver Broncos: The Redskins showed that they can score last week, beating the Bears, 45-41. But, their defense remains one of the worst in the game. Look for the Horseface to pad his gaudy stats in this one: PICK: Broncos;

    11.) (2-4) Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ (3-4) Arizona Cardinals: Who would have predicted that the Cardinals would have a better record than the Falcons, going into Week 8? After playing back to back games against the Seahawks and 49ers, any other team will likely look like a cupcake to the Cards: PICK: Cardinals;

    12.) (4-2) Green Bay Packers @ (1-5) Minnesota Vikings (+9.5): The Vikings have a terrible QB problem, and an even worse morale problem. Despite a bevy of injuries, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers continue to roll: PICK: Packers;

    13.) (6-1) Seattle Seahawks @ (3-4) St. Louis Rams (+10.5): Rams' QB Sam Bradford went down last week. Who will the Rams elect to feed to the Seattle Slew?: PICK: Seahawks.

    BEST BETS: Panthers, Lions, Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers, Broncos.

    FAIR WARNING: Whenever there appears to be so many favorable games to wager upon...BEWARE!! The Vegas boys know their business.

         As always, your comments, predictions, and opinions are welcome. Have a great evening, and a fabulous day on Wednesday. GO SOX!!!!    

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from darwk. Show darwk's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    Patriots pick- motivated and very angry sounds very good.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to darwk's comment:

    Patriots pick- motivated and very angry sounds very good.



         If they're not motivated and angry after losing to the Clown Car Jets, the season is lost.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from darwk. Show darwk's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

    In response to darwk's comment:

    Patriots pick- motivated and very angry sounds very good.



         If they're not motivated and angry after losing to the Clown Car Jets, the season is lost.

     




    Agree!

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    Who have the Patriots clobbered this year?

    They beat Tampa Bay by 20 points, and Tampa Bay was a completely dysfunctional team at the time.  That’s about it.  Every other game was often decided by a lucky bounce or an unlucky bounce.  In 2012, in 2011 and in 2010 the Pats were out clobbering somebody week in and week out. 

    The men in red and/or blue actually picked up a spot from 14 to 13, partly because away games get more credit and partly because at least one other team slid backwards faster than the Pats.  However, my stats rate the Patriots as playing like a 9-7 or an 8-8 team. 

    I can give them two positives:  first, they’re not playing anybody good for the rest of the season except for Denver at home (1.8 point underdogs), and second, BB youth-movement teams traditionally grow up in November and December.  Bill Belichick has a gorgeous December win-loss record in this century.  

    The 4-3 Jets can enjoy their Good Wife moment but they have two negatives this season:  On average they’re playing like a 6-10 team at this point, see slot #24 below, and under Rex Ryan they almost always have a terrible December.  I suspect it’s because the Jets prefer to hire drunkard free agents and boozers tend to have no stamina for a full season.  Whatever.  I wonder who the new coach will be.

    Denver was clobbering everybody and anybody, at least until this past Sunday, although their Jacksonville game the week before was a tiny bit suspect, and giving out 48 points to Dallas wasn’t competent either.  They’re still #1 by a fraction, but this week Denver fell a bit more in my ranking numbers.  All of a sudden the folks on their high horses have all fallen somewhat back to earth.  On the other side, Jacksonville is at least thinking about crawling out of the slime at the bottom, thanks to two halfhearted away games at St. Louis and Denver.

    1   den   13.5   (last wk. 1)

    2   sea   13.5   (last wk. 2)

    3   sf   12.7   (last wk. 6)

    4   ind   12.3   (last wk. 7)

    5   gb   11.6   (last wk. 3)

    6   dal   11.1   (last wk. 8)

    7   no   10.7   (last wk. 5)

    8   car   10.6   (last wk. 9)

    9   kc   10.1   (last wk. 4)

    10   sd   10.0   (last wk. 11)

    11   cin   9.1   (last wk. 18)

    12   det   8.9   (last wk. 10)

    13   ne   8.6   (last wk. 14)

    14   oak   8.3   (last wk. 16)

    15   ten   8.3   (last wk. 12)

    16   az   7.7   (last wk. 15)

    17   phi   7.6   (last wk. 13)

    18   bal   7.5   (last wk. 17)

    19   hou   7.1   (last wk. 26)

    20   buf   6.7   (last wk. 23)

    21   cle   6.5   (last wk. 21)

    22   mia   6.4   (last wk. 19)

    23   atl   6.3   (last wk. 20)

    24   nyj   6.0   (last wk. 27)

    25   stl   5.9   (last wk. 22)

    26   was   4.9   (last wk. 28)

    27   tb   4.8   (last wk. 24)

    28   chi   4.7   (last wk. 25)

    29   pit   4.7   (last wk. 31)

    30   nyg   4.4   (last wk. 29)

    31   min   3.3   (last wk. 30)

    32   jac   2.3   (last wk. 32)

    My own point spreads for week 8:

    Visitor / Home / My own points / vegas’s opinion / difference

    car   tb    -8.9   -6   -2.9

    sf   jac    -5.8   -16.5   10.7

    cle   kc    8.8   7.5   1.3

    mia   ne    5.7   7   -1.3

    buf   no    15.5   12   3.5

    nyg   phi    2.7   5.5   -2.8

    dal   det    0.8   4   -3.2

    pit   oak    13.9   2.5   11.4

    nyj   cin    7.5   6.5   1.0

    was   den    15.2   13   2.2

    atl   az    10.9   2.5   8.4

    gb   min    -7.2   -10   2.8

    sea   stl    -6.3   -11   4.7

    I fell off my own high horse last week and am down to a 6-1 record in games of the week.  Tennessee didn’t pull through, not at all.  For that matter, no team in the NFL is left up on their high horse except for Kansas City.  Last week I had KC slaughtering Houston by 11 points at home but they only squeaked through with 1 point, so KC is bumped all the way down to #9 despite their 7-0 record. 

    For week 8 I have some absolutely beautiful candidates.

    Once upon a time, Pittsburgh was winless.  Does anyone remember that time?  So, all of a sudden they’re the old Steelers again?  No, and the team won’t be that good on the west coast after a long flight.  I see no particular injury problems with Oakland.  Oakland didn’t play particularly horribly at Denver or against Indianapolis, and Terrelle Pryor seems to be ok right now.  Oakland just had a bye week to get ready for Pittsburgh.  Oakland clobbering Pittsburgh is my week 8 Game of the Week.

    pit   oak    13.9   2.5   11.4

     

    Other picks:

    I had absolutely no fear in picking Jacksonville to lose by 31 points at Seattle.  They lost by 28, thank you, and the line was only 20 points.  Here I have no fear in picking Jacksonville to cover versus San Francisco, a slightly faltering team without a nose tackle.

    sf   jac    -5.8   -16.5   10.7

    Has Atlanta been that good (2 and 4) or are they still one giant injury streak waiting to happen again next week?  Julio Jones is out for the year.  Roddy White is still hamstringed.  Atlanta has a long trip out.  Arizona plays Seattle and SF, so don’t go entirely by their record.  AZ had a long week to heal up and prepare.

    atl   az    10.9   2.5   8.4

    ---

    The Seattle - St. Louis game is dropped to a no-call, due to STL quarterback Sam Bradford going on injured reserve.

    sea   stl    -6.3   -11   4.7

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from DoNotSleepOnThePats. Show DoNotSleepOnThePats's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    I really like the way you do these picks.  Thanks!  And I like your reasoning for the Patriots to beat the Dolphins.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RushThePillPopper. Show RushThePillPopper's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

    In response to darwk's comment:

    Patriots pick- motivated and very angry sounds very good.



         If they're not motivated and angry after losing to the Clown Car Jets, the season is lost.

     



    If the Jets are a "clown car" then what does that make the Patriots...Barely beating them in week 2 and needing a last minute field goal to tie the game last Sunday? Patriots are the better team but they haven't exactly been blowing people out. They could easily be 4-3 or even 3-4

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    Rex Ryan seems to take beating his rivals as an extremely important goal.  It's possible in theory for a team to pretty much ignore 14 other regular season games and throw everything they have into beating one rival twice.  Nobody goes that far, but the Jets looked absolutely horrid, 19-6, playing against winless Pittsburgh at home, the week before the Patriots game.

    Ryan also valued being the #1 team in New York.  That's why he put his starting quarterback, the Sanchize, into the fourth quarter of a preseason game against the Giants.  Ryan got his Snoopy trophy, but at the cost of putting his QB on injured reserve for the entire 2013 season.

    Moral:  there's a cost to saving up whatever you have for one game or two games a year against a rival.  Sure you can do it, but after some point the team's chances of making the playoffs start dropping considerably.  Captain Ahab syndrome isnt useful if it gets you sitting at home in January.  Note that coach Ryan looks more like the Moby Dick type.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to Paul_K's comment:

    Captain Ahab syndrome isnt useful if it gets you sitting at home in January.  Note that coach Ryan looks more like the Moby Dick type.



         LOL!!!!

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to darwk's comment:

    Patriots pick- motivated and very angry sounds very good.



         Sunday's game against Miami may be a cross-road game for the Pats. They need to win this one convincingly.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from DanishPastry. Show DanishPastry's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

    In response to darwk's comment:

    Patriots pick- motivated and very angry sounds very good.



         Sunday's game against Miami may be a cross-road game for the Pats. They need to win this one convincingly.

     




    They need to at least win, that is for sure. But right now I don't see them win convincingly. The loss of VW and Mayo hurts them badly, and if Talib isn't 100 % I think they should rest him. The offense is a work on progress, and I don't see them clicking for another month or so. Get a W and I'm fully satisfied. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to DanishPastry's comment:



    They need to at least win, that is for sure. But right now I don't see them win convincingly. The loss of VW and Mayo hurts them badly, and if Talib isn't 100 % I think they should rest him. The offense is a work on progress, and I don't see them clicking for another month or so. Get a W and I'm fully satisfied. 



         True...any win is good. But I'd like to see the Pats bust out offensively. The way they've been playing, they're going nowhere.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

    In response to DanishPastry's comment:



    They need to at least win, that is for sure. But right now I don't see them win convincingly. The loss of VW and Mayo hurts them badly, and if Talib isn't 100 % I think they should rest him. The offense is a work on progress, and I don't see them clicking for another month or so. Get a W and I'm fully satisfied. 



         True...any win is good. But I'd like to see the Pats bust out offensively. The way they've been playing, they're going nowhere.

     




     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: WEEK EIGHT NFL PICKS and

    What I, as well as all of you here want to see, is a Pats team, make that OFFENSE, which is finally clicking for an entire game.  This Jekyll and Hyde offense is driving us bonkers.  As Tex says, this may be the elixir the Pats needs to get it in gear!!!

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share