WEEK ELEVEN NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

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    WEEK ELEVEN NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

     

    "Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who's the fairest of them all?"

    Well, it's not New England, playing within 15 yards of the losing touchdown, at home, and that after their bye week.  What happens when New England has to play a good team?

    It's not San Francisco after that tie at home to a team that New England blew out.  What if Alex Smith is still injured for the next game?  My system overweights the last game for a good reason -- injuries sometimes don't go away quickly. 

    That leaves Houston.  They beat a tough Chicago team in Chicago weather, although to be fair Jay Cutler was knocked out of that game rather early.  My software just counts points, not excuses.

    As usual, my power rating numbers are the number of victories, out of 16, that I'd expect if the season started anew next week.

    1          hou            13.7            (last wk.      4            )

    2          ne            12.5            (last wk.      1            )

    3          sf            11.6            (last wk.      2            )

    4          sea            11.5            (last wk.      8            )

    5          den            11.5            (last wk.      3            )

    6          gb            11.5            (last wk.      7            )

    7          chi            11.1            (last wk.      5            )

    8          car            11.1            (last wk.      10            )

    9          atl            10.8            (last wk.      6            )

    10        dal            9.9            (last wk.      12            )

    11        tb            9.4            (last wk.      13            )

    12        bal            9.2            (last wk.      18            )

    13        min            8.9            (last wk.      19            )

    14        nyg            8.5            (last wk.      9            )

    15        buf            8.0            (last wk.      24            )

    16        pit            7.9            (last wk.      11            )

    17        sd            7.7            (last wk.      17            )

    18        no            7.6            (last wk.      21            )

    19        stl            7.4            (last wk.      20            )

    20        det            7.1            (last wk.      14            )

    21        was            6.8            (last wk.      22            )

    22        mia            6.8            (last wk.      15            )

    23        nyj            6.6            (last wk.      16            )

    24        cin            6.4            (last wk.      27            )

    25        ind            6.4            (last wk.      25            )

    26        az            6.1            (last wk.      23            )

    27        ten            5.6            (last wk.      30            )

    28        cle            5.0            (last wk.      29            )

    29        phi            4.0            (last wk.      28            )

    30        oak            3.2            (last wk.      26            )

    31        jac            1.3            (last wk.      31            )

    32        kc            1.0            (last wk.      32            )

    Here's how this week's games are leaning:

    Visitor / Home / My Points / Vegas / Difference

    mia       buf                               4.5            1.5            3.0

    phi        was                              3.4            1.5            1.9

    ind        ne                                 11.5            9.0            2.5

    nyj        stl                                 7.3            3.5            3.8

    cle        dal                                6.0            7.5            -1.5

    tb         car                               1.6            -1.5            3.1

    az         atl                                 10.0            10.0            0.0

    cin        kc                                -5.6            -3.5            -2.1

    gb        det                               -3.4            -3.5            0.1

    jac        hou                               20.2            16.0            4.2

    no        oak                              -0.8            -4.5            3.7

    sd         den                               9.8            7.5            2.3

    bal        pit                                2.1            3.5            -1.4

    Last week I wanted to stay on the sidelines, but the column header says "Game of the Week" so I went with whatever I had.  It's not good for my winning percentage.  I'm down to 5-3 with two pushes.

    The hard times continue.  Except for the column header, "Game of the Week", I'd stay on the sidelines again and wait for easy pickings.  However, let me glean what I can from the leaners.

    From the top, Jacksonville versus Houston goes against my rule about huge overdogs versus small advantages.  Nope.

    St. Louis got a gift when Alex Smith went down.  That gift may not be replicated in their next game against the Jets.  Nope.

    I'll go with home underdog Oakland plus the points.  I'm no believer in one game wonders, and that's what we saw last week both with New Orleans and with Oakland.  New Orleans is 4-5.  Oakland is 3-6.  Why can't Oakland hold their own in the black hole? 

    If anything, I'd be worried about New Orleans looking ahead to that big game with San Fran the next weekend.  N.O. just played a heck of a division game against previously undefeated Atlanta last week.  Trap game this week?

    Oakland got blown out disastrously by Baltimore, 55-20.  Oddly enough, Oakland made only three fewer first downs than Baltimore, 19 first downs to 22, and Carson Palmer threw more touchdowns than interceptions.  We'll see.

    no        oak                              -0.8            -4.5            3.7

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: WEEK ELEVEN NFL PICKS and

    I'm taking the Pats over the Colts.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: WEEK ELEVEN NFL PICKS and

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm taking the Pats over the Colts.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not a bad choice.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: WEEK ELEVEN NFL PICKS and

    In response to Mybologna's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Well Pauly you should Never pick a Game of the week if you dont like it enough,otherwise do you have any ideas for prop bets Indy vs Pats?Havent watched Indy all year have no Idea what they can or cant do.

    [/QUOTE]


    I don't do over/under at all.  As I see it, over/under propositions are more about accurate weather forecasting than about football forecasting.  I care only about measuring relative team strengths when both sides are trying their level best to outscore their opponent (this sometimes isn't quite true at the ends of blowout games).

     
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