Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

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    Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         In the aftermath of week three, things are beginning to take shape as to who is who in the NFL. The Colts, Ravens, and the Jets are emerging as the top teams in the AFC. Meanwhile, our Patriots are coming off their finest overall performance of the season. They face a huge challenge, as the Ravens come to town this weekend in the "Game of the Week":

    1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2) @ New England Patriots: This is a statement game for both teams. The fact that the Pats have been installed as favorites is the more a result of respect for what they have done in the past, than what they have done this season. The Ravens have been dominant. Their win over the Chargers in San Diego was impressive. To win, the Pats must repeat what they did against Atlanta. They must a.) control the clock with their offense; b.) shut down Willis MaGahee and the Ravens' rushing attack; c.) pressure Joe Flacco; and d.) something that didn't happen against Atlanta...score TDs when in the redzone. But, a.) the Pats likely won't be able to run the ball against DT Haloti Ngata and the Ravens front seven; b.) are unlikely to be able to slow MaGahee and company minus Vince Wilfolk and Jerod Mayo; c.) will be too busy defensing the run to harass Flacco; d.) will be unable to score in the redzone without Wes Welker. But, because they have Tom Brady and BB, they have a punchers' chance at home:
    PICK: Patriots;

    2.) Oakland Raiders (+9.5) @ Houston Texans: After an inspiring win at Tennessee, the Texans reverted to their losing ways against Jacksonville. Setting aside a rocky performance against the Jets, QB Matt Schaub has played well. The Houston defense, not the offense, has let them down. Nonetheless, the Raiders have one of the worst offenses in the league:
    PICK: Texans;

    3.) Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3): The Titans have lost three straight tight games to three decent teams in the Steelers, Texans, and Jets. The losing streak ends in Jacksonville:
    PICK: Titans;

    4.) Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5): Ask the Cleveland fans now how they like the Mangina hire...and trading the 5th overall pick in last years' draft for the 17th overall pick, and a bag of peanuts.
    PICK: Bengals;

    5.) NY Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5): The G-men get to play Tampa and the Chiefs back to back? Tom Coughlin must be living right:
    PICK: Giants;

    6.) Detroit Lions (+10) @ Chicago Bears: The Cutler led Bears are vastly overrated. But, despite their win over the Deadskins, the Lions are still the Lions:
    PICK: Bears;

    7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Washington Redskins: Jim Zorn's job is on the line in this one. After such a putrid effort in Detroit, its' hard to believe that the 'Skins are favored by 7 over anyone. But, the punchless Bucs appear to be Lionesque this year:
    PICK: Redskins;

    8.) Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts: After two impressive road wins in Miami and Arizona, the Colts appear to be the legitimate SB contenders. It will be interesting to see what happens when Indy faces a team that can pressure Peyton. Hard to believe that the Colts are only favored by 9 against the Hasselbeck-less 'Hawks: 
    PICK: Colts;

    9.) NY Jets (+7) @ New Orleans Saints: 
    But for the Ravens/Pats marquee match-up, this battle between two 3-0 teams would be the game of the week. Though Drew Brees and company have been impressive, look for Rex Ryan to play the disrespect card on his players for this one. Seven points seems too high a spread: 
    PICK: Jets;

    10.) Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): The wildcat will be prowling all afternoon long for the 'Fins, as Chad Henne takes over for the done Chad Pennington. Great trade by the 'Fins to acquire QB Tyler Thigpen from the Chiefs. Tyler is a more athletic clone of Pennington...and will fit in well once he become familiar with the offense. A chance for TO to shine in this one, as the Miami secondary is in shambles:
    PICK: Bills;

    11.) St. Louis Rams (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are seeing red after a tough loss in Minnesota:
    PICK: 49ers;

    12.) Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (+3): A chance for the Broncos to quiet the critics calling them the worst 3-0 team in the NFL. The Cowboys are vastly overrated.
    PICK: Broncos;

    13.) San Diego Chargers (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers could just as easily be 3-0, than 1-2. With Baltimore off to a 3-0 start, and the Bengals up on them as well at 2-1, its' time for the Goths to get serious. But, the loss of SS Troy Polamalu, and the lack of a consistent ground game, have rusted the mighty Steeler machine. The Chargers have similar problems running the ball. Without Shawne Merriman, they once again are having problems getting to the opposing QB. But...6.5 points?
    PICK: Steelers;

    14.) Green Bay Packers (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: This game should be a lot of fun to watch. Lots of points scored...lots of drama...lots of excitement. The Vikings will go the extra mile to win this one for Brett, after the last play heroics against the 49ers:
    PICK: Vikings.

         Best Bets: Indy, Tennessee.

         
         Thoughts...especially on the Ravens/Pats match-up??   

        
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     In the aftermath of week three, things are beginning to take shape as to who is who in the NFL. The Colts, Ravens, and the Jets are emerging as the top teams in the AFC. Meanwhile, our Patriots are coming off their finest overall performance of the season. They face a huge challenge, as the Ravens come to town this weekend in the "Game of the Week": 1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2) @ New England Patriots: This is a statement game for both teams. The fact that the Pats have been installed as favorites is the more a result of respect for what they have done in the past, than what they have done this season. The Ravens have been dominant. Their win over the Chargers in San Diego was impressive. To win, the Pats must repeat what they did against Atlanta. They must a.) control the clock with their offense; b.) shut down Willis MaGahee and the Ravens' rushing attack; c.) pressure Joe Flacco; and d.) something that didn't happen against Atlanta...score TDs when in the redzone. But, a.) the Pats likely won't be able to run the ball against DT Haloti Ngata and the Ravens front seven; b.) Are unlikely to be able to slow MaGahee and company minus Vince Wilfolk and Jerod Mayo; c.) will be too busy defensing the run to harass Flacco; d.) will be unable to score in the redzone without Wes Welker. But, because they have Tom Brady and BB, they have a punchers' chance at home: PICK: Patriots; 2.) Oakland Raiders (+9.5) @ Houston Texans: After an inspiring win at Tennessee, the Texans reverted to their losing ways against Jacksonville. Setting aside a rocky performance against the Jets, QB Matt Schaub has played well. The Houston defense, not the offense, has let them down. Nonetheless, the Raiders have one of the worst offenses in the league: PICK: Texans; 3.) Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3): Th e Titans have lost three straight tight games to three decent teams in the Steelers, Texans, and Jets. The losing streak ends in Jacksonville: PICK: Titans; 4.) Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5): Ask the Cleveland fans now how they like the Mangina hire...and trading the 5th overall pick in last years' draft for the 17th overall pick and a bag of peanuts. PICK: Bengals; 5.) NY Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5):  The G-men get to play Tampa and the Chiefs back to back? Tom Coughlin must be living right: PICK: Giants; 6.) Detroit Lions (+10) @ Chicago Bears:  The Cutler led Bears are vastly overrated. But, despite their win over the Deadskins, the Lions are still the Lions: PICK: Bears; 7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Washington Redskins: Jim Zorn's job is on the line in this one. After such a putrid effort in Detroit, its' hard to believe that the 'Skins are favored by 7 over anyone. But, the punchless Bucs appear to be Lionesque this year: PICK: Redskins; 8.) Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts:  After two impressive road wins in Miami and Arizona, the Colts appear to be the legitimate SB contenders. It will be interesting to see what happens when Indy faces a team that can pressure Peyton. Hard to believe that the Colts are only favored by 9 against the Hasselbeck-less 'Hawks:  PICK: Colts; 9.) NY Jets (+7) @ New Orleans Saints:  But for the Ravens/Pats marquee match-up, this battle between two 3-0 teams would be the game of the week. Though Drew Brees and company have been impressive, look for Rex Ryan to play the disrespect card on his players for this one. Seven points seems too high a spread:  PICK: Jets; 10.) Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): The wildcat will be prowling all afternoon long for the 'Fins, as Chad Henne takes over for the done Chad Pennington. Great trade by the 'Fins to acquire QB Tyler Thigpen from the Chiefs. Tyler is a more athletic clone of Pennington...and will fit in well once he become familiar with the offense. A chance for TO to shine in this one, as the Miami secondary is in shambles: PICK: Bills; 11.) St. Louis Rams (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are seeing red after a tough loss in Minnesota: PICK: 49ers; 12.) Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (+3):  A chance for the Broncos to quiet the critics calling them the worst 3-0 team in the NFL. The Cowboys are vastly overrated. PICK: Broncos; 13.) San Diego Chargers (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:  The Steelers could just as easily be 3-0, than 1-2. With Baltimore off to a 3-0 start, and the Bengals up on them as well at 2-1, its' time for the men of Goths to get serious. But, the loss of SS Troy Polamalu, and the lack of a consistent ground game, have rusted the mighty Steeler machine. The Chargers have similar problems running the ball...and, without Shawne Merriman, they once again are having problems getting to the opposing QB. But...6.5 points? PICK: Steelers; 14.) Green Bay Packers (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: This game should be a lot of fun to watch. Lots of points scored...lots of drama...lots of excitement. The Vikings will go the extra mile to win this one for Brett, after the last play heroics against the 49ers: PICK: Vikings.           Thoughts...especially on the Ravens/Pats match-up??        
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    1/ Patriots - Brady, once again, will be the difference maker.
    2/ Raiders - Only because of the points which are too many to pass up.
    3/ Titans - I can't see them being 0-4.
    4/ Bengals - Browns and Bucs are in a race to see which will be the next winless team during a nfl season.
    5/ Giants - Chiefs have no business being on the same field as the Giiants.
    6/ Chicago - Bears finally gets an easier opponent, the Lions - 'nuff said.
    7/ Redskins - They may be the 'Deadskins' but they are still better than the Bucs.
    8/ Seattle - I know, I know...but there is an upset loss in Indy's future, this may be it.
    9/ Saints - NO has more than enough weapons to beat the Jets by that margin and more.
    10/ Bills - Miami, as a team, is in shambles.
    11/ 49ers - Seeing red after that loss to Vikes is an understatement.
    12/ Dallas - Who have the Broncos beaten? Bengals? Please...look again.
    13/ Pittsburgh - Too many points to leave behind
    14/ Packers - Diva Favre's luck runs out during this game.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from underdogg. Show underdogg's posts

    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Using the spread:
    1.  Ravens - I picked the pats last week, but the ravens d and the points are too much to give up.  If I am wrong, the pats are all the way back - even if Brady isn't.  
    2.  Lions - Bears just might not show up enough for the Lions win with the line.
    3.  Miami - Probably a stupid pick, but I'll take the points with home field (even with Henne).  Just haven't had confidence in Buffalo for years.
    4.  Dallas - Denver has taken advantage of the good fortune of it early schedule.  Things are about to change.
    5.  SD - The points are too much to give away.  Just as the Steelers could be 3-0 so could the Chargers.  Rivers can move that offense downfield.  he's a heckuva QB and could take advantage of a Polamolu-less steelers.

    All else I agree with.
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I agree with most of the picks Tex, but I have to go with the Cowboys in Denver.  I think the Boys finally expose this weak Denver team.  No lucky bounces this time for the Broncos.

     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Regarding the Pats game, my main focus will be on seeing how we deal with blitz+ defenses.  I believe that is our achilles heel.  The Ravens nearly beat us in 2007 with their heavy blitz attack, and a variation of that same scheme beat us this year.  I can't say the Giants used that against us; that was just good players.

    After the Jets game BB knew he will have to face that type of defense twice more in the regular season.  You have to believe beating the heavy blitz became a priority.  That is why it will be the main item I watch in the game.  If we still don't have an answer to the heavy blitz, it tells me we probably put a heavy effort into defeating it and failed.  That will only increase the motivation for other teams to "attempt" the same thing.  If the heavy blitz causes us the same problems we had in the Jets game, we have little reason to expect a different outcome when we play the Jets again.

    If we handle the heavy blitz effectively, I'll feel good that our achilles heel has been protected.  I'll feel good about our rematch with the Jets.  I'll feel good if we encounter such a team in the playoffs. That's what really matters.  In the playoffs, it really doesn't matter how good you play against most teams.  If there is a particular scheme used by a couple of teams that you do poorly against, you just have to hope you don't meet them in the playoffs.  Hope is not a plan.
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Regarding the Pats game, my main focus will be on seeing how we deal with blitz+ defenses.  I believe that is our achilles heel.  The Ravens nearly beat us in 2007 with their heavy blitz attack, and a variation of that same scheme beat us this year.  I can't say the Giants used that against us; that was just good players. After the Jets game BB knew he will have to face that type of defense twice more in the regular season.  You have to believe beating the heavy blitz became a priority.  That is why it will be the main item I watch in the game.  If we still don't have an answer to the heavy blitz, it tells me we probably put a heavy effort into defeating it and failed.  That will only increase the motivation for other teams to "attempt" the same thing.  If the heavy blitz causes us the same problems we had in the Jets game, we have little reason to expect a different outcome when we play the Jets again. If we handle the heavy blitz effectively, I'll feel good that our achilles heel has been protected.  I'll feel good about our rematch with the Jets.  I'll feel good if we encounter such a team in the playoffs. That's what really matters.  In the playoffs, it really doesn't matter how good you play against most teams.  If there is a particular scheme used by a couple of teams that you do poorly against, you just have to hope you don't meet them in the playoffs.  Hope is not a plan.
    Posted by carawaydj[/QUOTE]
    It's not just the blitz, but the blitz with a jumpy QB.  While an effective blitz is difficult for a QB to handle in any situation, when you add the knee issue to the mix, it makes things worse. 

    Maybe Brady is over his knee concerns and handles the blitz better than how he did with the Jets.
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Nice shootin Tex but I do have a couple differences.

    I like Seattle with the points against a beat up Indy team. Indy still wins the game but I'll take the Hawks and the points.

    I think the Saints will easily take care of that margin home. I think you're going to see the Jets come down to earth against an offense firing on all cylinders. The kid throws 2-3 picks trying to bring them back.

    I didn't realize the Giants and Bears already had bye weeks?

    I like the Boys on the road. The run game's a little beat up but they'll have enough to cover. Like the Jets it's time for Denver to start floating back to earth.

    Nice job
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Here are my picks, with a little info on some.

    1. Ravens/Patriots: Pick-Patriots, edge goes to Pat's due to home field and Brady who I think is very close to a break out performance. If this game was in Baltimore it's a pickem'.
    2. Oakland/Houston: Pick- Houston
    3. Tennessee/Jacksonville: Pick-Tennesse
    4. Cincinatti/Cleveland: Pick- Bungles, Cleveland is toast this year.
    5. Giants/K.C.: Pick- Giants
    6. Detroit/Chicago: Pick- Chicago
    7. Tampa Bay/Washington: Pick- Washington but if Tampa doesn't win this look out 0-16 here they come!
    8. Seattle/Indy: Pick- Indy
    9. Jets/New Orleans: Pick- New Orleans, but has a chance to be a pretty good game.
    10. Buffalo/Miami: Pick- Buffalo, Parcells doesn't realize he's VP Personel he thinks he is on vacation in South Beach.
    11. St. Louis/San Fran: Pick- San. Fran.
    12. Dallas/Denver: Pick- Denver, only because I hate Jerry Jones... no just kidding Dallas is that bad it isn't that Denver is that good.
    13. San Diego/Pittsburgh: Pick- San Diego... even Schilling a big time Steeler fan is seeing the writting on the wall this year!
    14. Green Bay/Minnesotta: Pick- Minnesotta, Can't stand Favre, but he doesn't have to do much to win this.
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Using the spread: 1.  Ravens - I picked the pats last week, but the ravens d and the points are too much to give up.  If I am wrong, the pats are all the way back - even if Brady isn't.   2.  Lions - Bears just might not show up enough for the Lions win with the line. 3.  Miami - Probably a stupid pick, but I'll take the points with home field (even with Henne).  Just haven't had confidence in Buffalo for years. 4.  Dallas - Denver has taken advantage of the good fortune of it early schedule.  Things are about to change. 5.  SD - The points are too much to give away.  Just as the Steelers could be 3-0 so could the Chargers.  Rivers can move that offense downfield.  he's a heckuva QB and could take advantage of a Polamolu-less steelers. All else I agree with.
    Posted by underdogg[/QUOTE]


    I agree with underdogg's exceptions, except for one--detroit.  i will replace that with the Saints--i do think they will cover against the Jets.


     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2) @ New England Patriots: The Ravens are a very sound football team and should contend for a Lombardi this year. The only weakness on the Ravens are the CBs. Denver & Oakland castoffs Domonique Foxworth & Fabian Washington have been horrible in coverage thus far. The productivity of the Patriot passing game is of paramount importance in this game. The 'it', Flacco has 'it'. Must hit him and get pressure to win. I have a general rule. If a team wins by 3 TDs or more, then, the next week pick them to win, even though just barely. Sorry PICK: Ravens;
     
    2.) Oakland Raiders (+9.5) @ Houston Texans:  The Raiders are back PICK: Texans;

    3.) Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3): The Titans have lost three straight tight games to three decent teams in the Steelers, Texans, and Jets. The losing streak ends in Jacksonville: PICK: Titans;

    4.) Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5): The clown who writes for the steelers (Gerry Dulac) is picking CLeveland, bitter i guess. after the Steelers choked away a game in the 4th qtr for second week in a row. I dont see it. Clev has 1 TD  PICK: Bengals;

    5.) NY Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5):  Todd Haley was offensive coordinator for AZ, that explains why KC has  no D PICK: Giants;

    6.) Detroit Lions (+10) @ Chicago Bears:  Cutler sux PICK: Lions;

    7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Washington Redskins: Seeing how QB Josh Johnson went to school in San Diego (USD under Jim Harbaugh now at Stanford), I would love to see this good kid win. Aint gonna happen with the Tampa supporting cast that amassed 86 total yards vs. NYG. Bucs score in the single digits again PICK: Redskins;
     
    8.) Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts:  Seattle D is good, to many points PICK: Hawks;
     
    9.) NY Jets (+7) @ New Orleans Saints:  A dose of humility for the arrogant goof ball REX PICK: Saints; 1

    10.) Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): Miami by 3 PICK: Dolphins;

    11.) St. Louis Rams (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are going to win but not by that much: PICK: Rams;
     
    12.) Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (+3):  the vastly overrated Broncos will not quiet the critics calling them the worst 3-0 team in the NFL. Orton will give this game away against Wade Phillips scheme that is planned to expose generic offensive playcalling. The Cowboys are going to win by 14 PICK: Cowboys;

    13.) San Diego Chargers (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: The Chargers defense played very well against Miami even before the injury to Pennington. The Steelers will be hungry, to be sure. I think 6.5 is too much, especially with the steeler O struggling a bit. Rivers leads the NFL in passing yardage, not good with TRoy out for PIT.   PICK: Chargers;
     
    14.) Green Bay Packers (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: I still dont think Rodgers has  'it'. Favre is bent on a W. pick: Vikes

    BEST BET: DALLAS
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I pretty much agree with Tex, except I'd maybe take the Seahawks, Bucs, and Lions and the points were I betting. The one game I'm going to disagree with is the Bills/Fins. I think being at home Miami may just pull it out. You don't want to see the Tuna if you're 0-4, either! It really depends on how Edwards can do. If he's not bothered by Taylor and Porter, then he could destroy the Fins' secondary with TO (if he doesn't drop too many) abd Evans. If Miami can put enough pressure on him they should be able to squeak by. I also think the wildcat could torch Buffalo for some long plays, even TDs.
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Folks on the prairie are apopleptic in anticipation of the annual Cheesehead invasion, with the former face of the enemy now causing assorted cardiac episodes west of the river.

    The Human Turnover will try to do too much in the way of rubbing it in Ted Thompson's face and Green Bay will take advantage of its intimate knowledge of Favre's tendencies to take out the Vikes.

    Forget the number. Packers win this one outright.


    That is all.
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    If the Packers-Vikings game was in Green Bay, I would have to call it the game of the week.

    As it stands, we almost have 3 games of the week. Fun weekend ahead.


     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I think the Cowboys will beat Denver by 10+.  Dallas can run the football and stopping CLE and OAK does not prove that Denver's awful run D of a year ago is suddenly fixed.  The Kyle Orton led Broncos have not yet faced a D this good.


    I think I like to Pack to go into Minn and get a W.  No real reason, just a hunch. 


    Other than that I think I'm with you, oh.... other than the fact I think Baltimore will be 4-0.  Like you said, Pats will need to run the ball and control the clock and I don't think they will.  Ravens win a real good game.

     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Curious where you got the point spread on the Seattle-Colt game.  Every source I've looked at indicates that no odds have been observed for the game.  Every so often that happens when there are too many uncertainties for the game, usually meaning there are a number of important injured players that may or may not play.  In this case: Hasslebeck, Freeney, Anthony Gonzales, Tatupu, Walter Jones, LeRoy Hill, Bob Sanders, Kelvin Hayden, Gary Brackett...

    My dad, who's a Seahawk season ticket holder, says it's because the betting community doesn't know how long the Colts will keep their starters in once they're up by more than four TDs.  (He's a pessimist when it comes ot his Seahawks...)
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Jules - one of my coworkers said the same thing yesterday when looking for the line.  thanks for mentioning.
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Not to beat a dead horse or post out of line here, but I would just like to mention that on the Fox pregame last week, 4 out of 5 "expert" panelists picked Atlanta to defeat the Patriots, with Howie Long (a New England boy) the lone hold out.  I've never given much weight to picking the games (and years ago lost a tidy sum trying to do so), rather let's just enjoy the scrum for what it is. 
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Curious where you got the point spread on the Seattle-Colt game.  Every source I've looked at indicates that no odds have been observed for the game.  Every so often that happens when there are too many uncertainties for the game, usually meaning there are a number of important injured players that may or may not play.  In this case: Hasslebeck, Freeney, Anthony Gonzales, Tatupu, Walter Jones, LeRoy Hill, Bob Sanders, Kelvin Hayden, Gary Brackett... My dad, who's a Seahawk season ticket holder, says it's because the betting community doesn't know how long the Colts will keep their starters in once they're up by more than four TDs.  (He's a pessimist when it comes ot his Seahawks...)
    Posted by JulesWinfield[/QUOTE]

    Heres' where I got the Indy spread: http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_point_spreads.shtml Its' gone up a point since I first posted.
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    The game of the week is going to be Ravens/Pats and I'd go as far as Pats by 7, with the Patriots killing the clock and not running up the score at the Ravens 10 yard line when the clock hits zero. 

    Everything in the tea leaves says lean toward the Patriots.  The Ravens just played two incredibly weak teams who were both missing their best players, plus they squeaked by the San Diegos minus LT, two offensive linemen and one other starter.  We have no idea how bad the Ravens could be.

    It looks like Welker has practiced 2 days in a row, and Mayo and Wilfork practiced. 

    The Patriots brought in 11 free agents and 4 top-of-second-round picks, all learning the NFL's hardest defense and hardest offense, plus Brady is shaking off rust, and each week the players  all jell and get notably better.  Their old 2007 level of play is absolutely attainable. 
     
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    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]The game of the week is going to be Ravens/Pats and I'd go as far as Pats by 7, with the Patriots killing the clock and not running up the score at the Ravens 10 yard line when the clock hits zero.  Everything in the tea leaves says lean toward the Patriots.  The Ravens just played two incredibly weak teams who were both missing their best players, plus they squeaked by the San Diegos minus LT, two offensive linemen and one other starter.  We have no idea how bad the Ravens could be. It looks like Welker has practiced 2 days in a row, and Mayo and Wilfork practiced.  The Patriots brought in 11 free agents and 4 top-of-second-round picks, all learning the NFL's hardest defense and hardest offense, plus Brady is shaking off rust, and each week the players  all jell and get notably better.  Their old 2007 level of play is absolutely attainable. 
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

         Like your optimism, Paul. Hope You're right!
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         This from ESPN's Tim Graham, on the Ravens/Pats clash, and the AFC East:

         The best game of the week is not the
    New York Jets at New Orleans Saints. As interesting as a battle between two 3-0 teams will be, we'll learn a lot more about the state of the AFC when the Baltimore Ravens visit the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

         Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, the former Miami Dolphins coaching pariah, is calling the league's second-ranked offense. The Ravens' defense is ranked first against the run and seventh overall. But the Ravens have been relatively vulnerable against the pass. If Tom Brady can manage to work around Ravens safety Ed Reed, then the Patriots could score another big win after that setback to the Jets in Week 2.

         The Jets' offensive line still is playing below expectations. Many observers, myself, included considered the Jets among the elite O-line units. They're solid on paper from tackle to tackle, featuring four first-round draft picks. But the Jets have been average in protecting Mark Sanchez and have struggled to generate a run game.

         The Jets are tied for 20th in run offense. Take away two long fourth-quarter runs in the season opener, and reigning AFC rushing leader Thomas Jones is averaging 2.3 yards a carry. The starting front five have committed nine penalties for 62 yards.

         While everybody's talking about the need to stop Drew Brees, running back Pierre Thomas will be a devil for the Jets' defense. The Saints' offense obviously changed when they started handing the ball to Thomas in the second half of Sunday's game against the Buffalo Bills. Thomas didn't touch the ball in the first half, but finished the game with 126 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 9 yards a carry.

         Maybe few people noticed because it was against the Bills, and a scan of the box score doesn't show that Thomas did all of that damage in 30 minutes. Brees, meanwhile, threw for only 172 yards to win comfortably.

         Bills receiver Terrell Owens should have a nice bounce-back game against the Miami Dolphins. For the first time in 185 games, Owens is coming off a no-catch performance. Bills offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and quarterback Trent Edwards are under fire for not getting Owens and Lee Evans the ball. They've had all week to address those concerns and likely will enter Land Shark Stadium with a plan to get Owens involved early and often.

         The Dolphins rank No. 3 against the run, but their pass defense has been the sixth-most lenient. Opposing quarterbacks have a 103.3 passer rating against them and are averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, second-to-worst in the league.

         Dolphins reserve Charlie Anderson could be a difference-maker against the Bills. Unless you're a diehard Dolphins, Houston Texans or Ole Miss fan, you probably don't know who the heck Anderson is. He has started just six games in his six-year career. But he will be relied upon Sunday.

         Anderson is Joey Porter's backup, and the reigning AFC sack king has been slowed down by a hamstring problem. Porter has insisted he will play, but even if he does, Anderson will see increased snaps. Anderson does have ability. In back-to-back games last year against the Bills and San Francisco 49ers, he recorded two sacks and two forced fumbles.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Achainsaw. Show Achainsaw's posts

    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     In the aftermath of week three, things are beginning to take shape as to who is who in the NFL. The Colts, Ravens, and the Jets are emerging as the top teams in the AFC. Meanwhile, our Patriots are coming off their finest overall performance of the season. They face a huge challenge, as the Ravens come to town this weekend in the "Game of the Week": 1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2) @ New England Patriots: This is a statement game for both teams. The fact that the Pats have been installed as favorites is the more a result of respect for what they have done in the past, than what they have done this season. The Ravens have been dominant. Their win over the Chargers in San Diego was impressive. To win, the Pats must repeat what they did against Atlanta. They must a.) control the clock with their offense; b.) shut down Willis MaGahee and the Ravens' rushing attack; c.) pressure Joe Flacco; and d.) something that didn't happen against Atlanta...score TDs when in the redzone. But, a.) the Pats likely won't be able to run the ball against DT Haloti Ngata and the Ravens front seven; b.) are unlikely to be able to slow MaGahee and company minus Vince Wilfolk and Jerod Mayo; c.) will be too busy defensing the run to harass Flacco; d.) will be unable to score in the redzone without Wes Welker. But, because they have Tom Brady and BB, they have a punchers' chance at home: PICK: Patriots; 2.) Oakland Raiders (+9.5) @ Houston Texans: After an inspiring win at Tennessee, the Texans reverted to their losing ways against Jacksonville. Setting aside a rocky performance against the Jets, QB Matt Schaub has played well. The Houston defense, not the offense, has let them down. Nonetheless, the Raiders have one of the worst offenses in the league: PICK: Texans; 3.) Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3): Th e Titans have lost three straight tight games to three decent teams in the Steelers, Texans, and Jets. The losing streak ends in Jacksonville: PICK: Titans; 4.) Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5): Ask the Cleveland fans now how they like the Mangina hire...and trading the 5th overall pick in last years' draft for the 17th overall pick, and a bag of peanuts. PICK: Bengals; 5.) NY Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5):  The G-men get to play Tampa and the Chiefs back to back? Tom Coughlin must be living right: PICK: Giants; 6.) Detroit Lions (+10) @ Chicago Bears:  The Cutler led Bears are vastly overrated. But, despite their win over the Deadskins, the Lions are still the Lions: PICK: Bears; 7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Washington Redskins: Jim Zorn's job is on the line in this one. After such a putrid effort in Detroit, its' hard to believe that the 'Skins are favored by 7 over anyone. But, the punchless Bucs appear to be Lionesque this year: PICK: Redskins; 8.) Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts:  After two impressive road wins in Miami and Arizona, the Colts appear to be the legitimate SB contenders. It will be interesting to see what happens when Indy faces a team that can pressure Peyton. Hard to believe that the Colts are only favored by 9 against the Hasselbeck-less 'Hawks:  PICK: Colts; 9.) NY Jets (+7) @ New Orleans Saints:  But for the Ravens/Pats marquee match-up, this battle between two 3-0 teams would be the game of the week. Though Drew Brees and company have been impressive, look for Rex Ryan to play the disrespect card on his players for this one. Seven points seems too high a spread:  PICK: Jets; 10.) Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): The wildcat will be prowling all afternoon long for the 'Fins, as Chad Henne takes over for the done Chad Pennington. Great trade by the 'Fins to acquire QB Tyler Thigpen from the Chiefs. Tyler is a more athletic clone of Pennington...and will fit in well once he become familiar with the offense. A chance for TO to shine in this one, as the Miami secondary is in shambles: PICK: Bills; 11.) St. Louis Rams (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are seeing red after a tough loss in Minnesota: PICK: 49ers; 12.) Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (+3):  A chance for the Broncos to quiet the critics calling them the worst 3-0 team in the NFL. The Cowboys are vastly overrated. PICK: Broncos; 13.) San Diego Chargers (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:  The Steelers could just as easily be 3-0, than 1-2. With Baltimore off to a 3-0 start, and the Bengals up on them as well at 2-1, its' time for the Goths to get serious. But, the loss of SS Troy Polamalu, and the lack of a consistent ground game, have rusted the mighty Steeler machine. The Chargers have similar problems running the ball. Without Shawne Merriman, they once again are having problems getting to the opposing QB. But...6.5 points? PICK: Steelers; 14.) Green Bay Packers (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: This game should be a lot of fun to watch. Lots of points scored...lots of drama...lots of excitement. The Vikings will go the extra mile to win this one for Brett, after the last play heroics against the 49ers: PICK: Vikings.      Best Bets: Indy, Tennessee.            Thoughts...especially on the Ravens/Pats match-up??        
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]


    Green Bay defense plays way over their head tommorrow. They were venomous when Favre got signed and expressed it to the media. They force 3 or 4 turnovers and take it.

    Pats dont stop Ravens on the ground at all. If Brady doesn't succeed with the long ball once or twice in the first half and get Ravens on their heels, than Pats lose. But Ravens don't rack up the points. They stick with the run and eat up possession time and win. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

    Jets get abused in New Orleans. Anyone who thinks otherwise is nuts. Brees will eat them up and have a blueprint for any other team with a good QB on how to beat them up when they blitz.

    No way Cowboys lose to Denver. Not gonna happen

    I agree about the Colts. Bet of the year so far, jump on it
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from simroy. Show simroy's posts

    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : Green Bay defense plays way over their head tommorrow. They were venomous when Favre got signed and expressed it to the media. They force 3 or 4 turnovers and take it. Pats dont stop Ravens on the ground at all. If Brady doesn't succeed with the long ball once or twice in the first half and get Ravens on their heels, than Pats lose. But Ravens don't rack up the points. They stick with the run and eat up possession time and win. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be. Jets get abused in New Orleans. Anyone who thinks otherwise is nuts. Brees will eat them up and have a blueprint for any other team with a good QB on how to beat them up when they blitz. No way Cowboys lose to Denver. Not gonna happen I agree about the Colts. Bet of the year so far, jump on it
    Posted by Achainsaw[/QUOTE]

    Just an opinion, but I got a funny feeling the Pats-Ravens game won't be all that close; expect a 10 point difference.  If the Ravens get a quick lead, they're defense becomes all that more dangerous, but I suspect their defense isn't as good as advertised.  Gave up plenty of points to the Chiefs in week one - to a backup QB.  Also gave up plenty of points to the Chargers (no crime in that - a good offense).  The only team they've shut down thus far is the lowly Browns.  Truth be told, the Ravens in two of three games won shootouts.  On the other hand, it the Pats get out to an early lead, they can play more ball control type offense and force the Ravens to open up their offense (which they certainly can do with success).  I think turnovers (yes, stating the obvious) and special teams play will be a major part of a victory and I've not been overly impressed with our special teams covering kicks.  Anyway, I just got a feeling that one teams gets out to a two possession lead and the other team's defense starts the QB pressure game.  As the Pats don't really rush the QB all that well, I think they'll scheme in the secondary to force the Ravens QB into mistakes - and since we're at home I give the Pats the edge.  Although others will disagree and accuse me of being a homer, I see the score 28-17 Pats if we get up early or 28-17 Ravens if they do so.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week Four NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         There appears to be two schools of thought on the Ravens/Pats "Game of the Week". One is that Tom Brady will find a way to get it done against the tough Baltimore "D". The other is that the Pats' won't be able to stop the Ravens' running game, and will react by stacking the line of scrimmage..and that Joe Flacco will be able to pick their secondary apart. 

         Brady Gets It Done: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bal-sp.ravensscout04oct04,0,5114484.story  

         Flacco Turns Tables on Pats: http://www.examiner.com/x-1089-Baltimore-Sports-Examiner~y2009m10d4-Ravens-vs-Patriots-preview
     
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