Re: Week Nine NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"
posted at 11/3/2009 10:32 PM EST
Last week’s ugly forecast:
sea dal 9.5 small for seattle loss
cle chi 13.5 large for Cleveland to cover loss
hou buf -3.5 large for buffalo loss
jac ten 3 small for Jacksonville loss
nyg phi 3 too insignificant to call, but Eagles wr curtis is out. -2 for phi gives a small for nyg. loss
oak sd 17 on my large-small borderline, so I’ll say large for Oakland to cover win. Whew!
car az 9 large for Arizona to blow out Carolina loss
atl no 10 large for Atlanta to cover. win
Wow! I didn’t know that a statistical system could be created that consistently lost against the spread. Applause, please, for a theoretical impossibility! This brings my season totals to 5-6 on the small calls and 6-8 on the large calls. Only thing to do is to deflect people’s attention, so, --
It’s all a national conspiracy!! The “good” wiseguys who faithfully deliver the odds (and leave the bad debt enforcement to associates), are being robbed blind by the “bad” wiseguys who are buying players and refs left and right. You see, the good wiseguys have known for years that you can bet huge underdogs with naked bets and usually win. So, they’ve been plunking down $100m on the juicy bets for years. The bad boys decided to rob this group. So, they’re covering and raising the $100m and then rigging the blowouts to be super-blowouts. Vegas loses again and again and again, until the bookies fear to bet at all. Then the bad guys move right into a wide-open field at higher odds with their new loot and their game fixing. In the meantime, statisticians like me are getting equally wrong results.
Or, it could be my bad assumptions, bad programming, fumble finger data entry, or just statistically random bad chance. It’s kind of hard to actually beat Vegas, even though Vegas is slowly going bankrupt itself.
In my exclusive (and worth every penny) power rating news, the AFC East is by far the best division in football on my charts, and the Patriots are by a mile the best team in football. My stats would expect New England to win 15.5 games out of 16 if the season started anew today, assuming they didn’t have to play Miami, New York and the cream so much. Miami is up to a 13.4 victory team and New York is a 12.3 victory team. Buffalo is an 8.3 victory team, which isn’t half bad.
Undefeated Indianapolis plays too many bunnies and rates only an 11.7. New Orleans is 13.9 right now.
Denver rates only 9.2, <editorial> tied with Indy for being the two biggest fakes in the NFL </editorial>. The absolute bottom is Jacksonville with 1.4 victories out of 16 if the season started fresh tomorrow. They can’t beat Tennessee, huh? That’s bad! New England versus Jacksonville in Foxboro is up to a 26 point spread.
So, guess who plays New England next? Miami, Indy, Jets, New Orleans and Miami again. We’re about to be blessed with five playoff-caliber games, one after the other.
Just to see, I’ll put out my week nine forecasts:
Visitor/home/my call / vegas line / net difference
az chi -1.9 3 -4.9 large Arizona
was atl 16.4 10 6.4 large for the Atlanta blowout
gb tb -7.1 10 2.9 small Tampa Bay to cover.
mia ne 6.1 10.5 -4.4 I take this number down 3 points because New England is coming off a bye week, BB is loaded for bear with trick plays, and numbers of Patriot players have healed up a bit. In contrast, Miami just slugged it out last Sunday. No call.
kc jac 0.3 6.5 -6.2 large for kc to cover, Jacksonville really looks awful.
hou ind 7.2 9 -1.8 not significant
bal cin 2.8 -3 5.8 large for Cincinnati to win
car no 13.5 13.5 0.0 dead zero, not a significant indicator
det sea 6.1 10 -3.9 small for Detroit to cover
ten sf 12.1 4 8.1 large for san fran to blow out
sd nyg 5.1 4 1.1 not significant
dal phi 2.1 3 -0.9 not significant
pit den 0.5 -3 3.5 small for Denver to cover and maybe win
Top games: Arizona, Atlanta, Kansas City,Cincinnati, San Francisco. The top game in this pile is San Francisco.
My personal feeling about the Miami game is that BB will handle the mildcat now. If Chad Henne had the swine feedlot flu last week he'll be out and firing this week, but if Chad is just being a rookie, he'll be just as bad as last week.