WEEK NINE NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

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    WEEK NINE NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    I was hoping that New England would reclaim the #1 spot with their walloping of some nameless team, but San Francisco put it together on Monday night and defended their king of the hill status with their own wallop. 

    It’s really nice of the NFL to push the Patriots’ bye week back to week 9.  They need it now with all the injuries.

    My power ratings are based on how many victories, out of 16, a team would probably win if the season started fresh tomorrow.

    1   sf   13.8   (last wk. 2)

    2   ne   13.5   (last wk. 4)

    3   atl   12.9   (last wk. 5)

    4   hou   12.7   (last wk. 3)

    5   gb   12.4   (last wk. 1)

    6   nyg   12.1   (last wk. 6)

    7   den   11.5   (last wk. 8)

    8   chi   9.7   (last wk. 7)

    9   dal   9.0   (last wk. 12)

    10   pit   8.9   (last wk. 16)

    11   sd   8.9   (last wk. 9)

    12   sea   8.9   (last wk. 11)

    13   bal   8.8   (last wk. 15)

    14   no   8.3   (last wk. 10)

    15   mia   7.7   (last wk. 22)

    16   tb   7.6   (last wk. 19)

    17   nyj   7.5   (last wk. 14)

    18   det   7.3   (last wk. 18)

    19   min   7.3   (last wk. 13)

    20   car   7.3   (last wk. 20)

    21   oak   6.9   (last wk. 25)

    22   cin   6.7   (last wk. 21)

    23   was   6.5   (last wk. 17)

    24   cle   5.7   (last wk. 28)

    25   ind   5.6   (last wk. 27)

    26   phi   5.3   (last wk. 23)

    27   jac   4.9   (last wk. 32)

    28   ten   4.8   (last wk. 24)

    29   buf   4.5   (last wk. 26)

    30   stl   3.3   (last wk. 29)

    31   az   3.1   (last wk. 31)

    32   kc   2.7   (last wk. 30)

     

    My point spreads:

    Visitor / Home / My points / the gambling public’s opinion / difference

    kc   sd    14.1   8.0   6.1

    mia   ind    0.8   -2.5   3.3

    car   was    -0.4   3.0   -3.4

    buf   hou    15.4   10.5   4.9

    bal   cle    -4.2   -3.5   -0.7

    den   cin    -1.7   -4.0   2.3

    chi   ten    -2.8   -3.5   0.7

    det   jac    2.8   -3.5   6.3

    az   gb    21.7   11.0   10.7

    tb   oak    -0.6   1.0   -1.6

    min   sea    7.2   5.0   2.2

    pit   nyg    6.7   3.5   3.2

    dal   atl    8.6   4.0   4.6

    phi   no    6.3   3.0   3.3

    Last week I picked Atlanta, where Philly was the overdog for some reason.  Atlanta won 30-17.  This pushed me back onto my projected 67% target rate with picking games of the week.  I’m now 4-2 with two pushes.  Are the rest of you losing courage yet?  (don’t look at my other picks!)

    For week 9’s Game of the Week I’ll take Green Bay to crush Arizona.  Green Bay is forecast to have a high of 45 degrees and overcast which makes the temperature feel colder, with a northeast breeze off of Lake Michigan, not exactly sunny desert weather.  Arizona is currently rated as a terrible team, losing every game in October against some real bunnies.  Green Bay has a spiffy 3 game winning streak including an away game at Houston.  Both teams are playing pretty injured.  Arizona had a short week to prepare. 

    az   gb    21.7   11.0   10.7

     

    I don’t feel good about either of the other potential picks, so let’s call them leaners.  Detroit, a dome team, won’t have the trouble playing in Jacksonville that it might have in Chicago.  Much of Jacksonville’s advantage here comes from their being a strong home team and Detroit being a weak away team.  San Diego may in fact beat KC at home, but it’s not the longest commute for KC, it’s a divisional game where sometimes underdog teams play tough, and in general I don’t like runaway overdogs.  This could be a weakness of my forecasting system.  The same overdog rule is true with Houston walloping Buffalo after both of them had a bye week.  However, Atlanta over Dallas isn’t too bad for a leaner. 

     
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