Are you ready for some FOOTBALL??!! Before I list my picks for the Week One games, I just want to assure all of you that I have no intention of demanding a sticky for my new thread. LOL!!!

     As you regulars know, I make my picks taking the point spread into account. I don't do this because I'm interesting in gambling...but because I find it much more challenging to pick games in this manner. For example, lets' that when the Pats play the Rams later this year in London, that they're a 12 point favorite. Picking the Pats to win the game is an easy choice...but picking them to win by 12 points or more makes it much more of a challenge.

     Here are my picks, with the "Game of the Week" being:

1.) San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) @ Green Bay Packers: This will be a battle of heavyweights....the NFL's answer to Ali/Frazier. In one corner, you have the Aaron Rodgers'  aerial circus. In the other, you have the ground and pound 49er offense, and their smothering defense. It's the Packers' "float like a butterfly, sting like a bee" West Coast offense, vs. the left hooks delivered by 49ers'  running game, and the eleven Pier Sixers on their defense. The 2011 Green Bay defensive unit was statistically the worst in the NFL, last season. The fact that the Packers have lost their top LB and tackler, Desmond Bishop, for the season, won't help. 
     To win, the 49ers must shorten the game with their running game, limit the yards after catch by the Green Bay receivers, and get enough pressure on Rodgers to disrupt his timing. The last time the Pack played, they were pounded and embarrassed, 37-20, by the N.Y. Giants in the play-offs. They badly need a win to regain their confidence, and swagger. As usual, turnovers will be key:
PICK: Packers;

2.) Dallas Cowboys (+4) @ N.Y. Giants: The Giants remind me to an extent of the late, great comedian, Rodney Dangerfield. They are the defending world champions, have a first rate organization, a  Hall of Fame caliber head coach, an elite QB, and the best pressure defense in the game. Yet, they are only favored by 4 points at home, against the Jerrry Jones constructed Cowboys? It seems to me that, like Rodney, the Giants are getting no respect:
PICK: Giants;

3.) Indianapolis Colts (+9.5) @ Chicago Bears: The additions of RB Michael Bush, and WRs Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jeffrey, have the Bears' fans thinking SB. But, the Bears did nothing to address their lousy OL, which allowed their QB, Jay Cutler, to be sacked 58 times last season. On defense, stud DE Julius Peppers is entering his 10th season, and 34 year old MLB Brian Urlacher is, by his own admission, on his last legs.
     The Colts have a rookie QB who, health permitting, will be the best in the game, in three years. Unfortunately for Mr. Luck, he's playing behind a leaky OL...and doesn't have anywhere near the arsenal of weapons, once had by his celebrated horse-faced predecessor.:
PICK: Da' Bears;

4.) Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns (+8.5): The Brandon Weeden error begins. The word out of Cleveland is that stud RB Trent Richardson is 100%, and ready to go. But, he recently had his knee scoped...so this remains to be seen. Though I see fragile Philly QB, Michael Vick, as vastly overrated, this year, he appears to have a strong stable of RBs, let by LeSean McCoy, to help him out. On defense, Philly's #1 pick, DT Fletcher Cox, has thus far disappointed. But the same doesn't appply to LB Mychal Kendricks, DE Vinny Curry, and DB/KR Brandon Boykin. Look for rookie QB Nick Foles to eventually take over for Vic this season:
PICK: Eagles;

5.) Buffalo Bills (+3) @ N.Y. Jets: Beware the "Wildcat"!! Lots of pressure on the Jests...and, especially, on QB Mark Sanchez. If the Goblins continue to struggle on offense as they have throughout the pre-season, it will get ugly in the stands...fast!
     The Bills were a Jeckyl/Hyde team last year. Though some good additions were made, I'm not sold on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick...who I regard as a journeyman, with a big contract. Considering how the Bills stumbled all over themselves to acquire another journeyman, Tavaris Jackson, they may lack confidence in Fitzpatrick, too. This game has the appearance of a real snoozer:
PICK: Bills;

6.) Washington Redskins (+9) @ New Orleans Saints: RG III is going to wish he had stayed at home with RG II, before this game mercifully comes to an end. Look for the Saints to respond to Bountygate in a similar manor as the way that the Patriots responded to Spygate:
PICK: Saints;

7.) New England Patriots (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee's very underrated defense should initially give Tom Brady trouble, and keep this game close. Look for BB to devise a strategy to take RB Chris Johnson out of the game, and force novice QB Jake Locker to beat his team. The Pats need to beware of kick returner Darius Reynaud, who had a stellar pre-season:
PICK: Patriots;

8.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: Star RB Maurice Jones-Drew returns to  the Jags from his pre-season long hold-out. Minnesota's Adrian Peterson returns, after rehabbing from knee surgery. It will be interesting to see whether either will be effective. After having an horrendous year in 2011, Jags QB Blaine Gabbert had a good pre-season. The Vikings Christian Ponder played better than I expected last year. With LT Matt Kalil protecting his blind-side in 2012, the kid has a chance to progress:
PICK: Vikings;

9.) Miami Dolphins (+12.5) @ Houston Texans: Cam Cameron "Fail Fast First" days of 2007, the football forecast for the 'Fins is for Hurricane Andrew-like conditions, year round:
PICK: Texans;

10.) St. Louis Rams (+7) @ Detroit Lions: Look for Matthew Stafford and company to have a field day against the over-matched Ewes:
PICK: Lions;

11.) Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3): Does anybody really know how good the Falcons will be? There's Matty Ice at QB, and the WR duo of Julio Jones and Roddy White. Star TE Anthony Gonzalez is well past his prime. On defense, their top  and only pass rusher, John Abraham, is 34 years old. Veteran CB  Asantte Samuel should help improve their turnover ratio.
     As for the Chiefs, they made a monumental mistake in using their 11th overall draft pick on the huge, but Charmin soft NT, Dontari Poe. When you think of Poe, think Ron Brace. K.C. will go as far as RBs Peyton Hillis and Jamaal Charles can take them:
PICK: Chiefs;

12.) Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5): Cam Newton is the closest thing to a one man band of offense. Too bad he doesn't have any receivers to throw to, other than the aging Steve Smith. Ex-Raider WR Louis Murphy may help. In the draft, the Panthers picked up LB "Crazy" Luke Kuechley, who has the potential to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year in the NFC.
     New Bucs coach Greg Shiano was a good hire. His players certainly looked good against the Pats' in the pre-season. Still, Newton and Company are a tall task:
PICK: Panthers;

13.) Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5): The Russell Wilson experiment begins. It remains to be seen whether Wilson will have the same success against first team NFL defenders, as he had against 2nd and 3rd stringers in the pre-season.
     The Cars were awful in the pre-season.  Vastly overpaid QB Kevin Kolb played worse than awful. Though QB John Skelton wasn't much better, he should get the nod. The Cards have too much talent to play as poorly as they did in the practice games:
PICK: Cardinals;

14.) Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos; A rematch of last years' classic play-off game, won by the Tebowites in OT. Now, Tebow is gone, replaced by the man with the bionic neck, and the horses' face. This game should be a shoot-out, and a lot of fun to watch:
PICK: Steelers;

15.) Cincinnati Bengals (+6) @ Baltimore Ravens: Though I'm not sold on Bengals' QB, Andy Dalton...neither am I sold on the Ravens. Eventually, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are going to start showing their age. Their best and only real pass-rusher, Terrell Suggs, is out. It's now or never for the Bengals:
PICK: Bengals;

16.) San Diego Chargers (+1) @ Oakland Raiders: Can somebody please explain to me why Norv Turner still has a job? The Raiders have dominated the Bolts of late:
PICK: Raiders.

     BEST BETS: Giants, Saints, Texans, and Patriots.

     As always, your thoughts and comments, particularly on the Pats/Titans game, are welcome.            
          
      
             

 

Do you want this thread red stickied to the top?! ;-)

In response to Quagmire3 comment:


     I covered that issue in the opening paragraph of my original post, above...LOL!!!

Just as long the Pats win and the rest of the AFC East teams lose, I'm cool with that.

Go Pats!

TexasPat ... and is this the Vegas Point spread? I assume so but giving the Pats 5.5. ...hmmm

The Gints and Boys square off tonite right?

good show ...

Hey tex...
11 out of your 1st 12 picks are favorites .

As a general rule, underdogs should perform better early in the season when teams aren't established yet...  That's my theory anyway.


I'm picking all 'dogs except:

Patriots -5.5
Lions.   -7
panthers -3
Vikings  -3.5

 check the results next week ... And post the W-L-T.

Packers
Giants
Bears
Eagles
Bills
Saints
Pats
Vikings
Texans
Lions
Falcons
Bucs
Seahawks
Steelers
Ravens
Chargers

Packers
Giants
Bears
Eagles
Bills
Saints
Pats
Vikings
Texans
Lions
Falcons
Bucs
Seahawks
Steelers
Ravens
Chargers

Cleveland with the points.  Philly rests on its laurels and Cleveland is saddled with a scummy reputation from last year.  New team president Mike Holmgren is running this outfit now.  He earned a rep at Green Bay, and then he got the Seahawks to 13-3 one year.  Everyone but everyone has Cleveland as the ultimate NFL pussycat but their first stringers have been playing the game well in preseason.  Talk about a chip on their shoulders, and in front of the home crowd too.

Philly, on the other hand, has all sorts of issues this preseason and is infamous for starting slow.  What if QB Michael Vick never really recovered from last year's beatings?  This happens frequently to small running backs.  Does Cleveland have anyone like Cunningham?

For the rest of my many picks,  I posted a few days ago.  Here's the link:

http://www.boston.com/community/forums/sports/patriots/on-the-front-burner/week-1-predictions-and-game-of-the-week/100/6328620

In response to coolade2 comment:

Nothing to argue there, thanks for sharing your picks and the game intel.  

The best time of the year is upon us!

The strangest odds of the week have the Steelers a 1.5 point dog to the Broncos. Gotta think that a bunch of late money will even that one out.

In response to trouts' comment:


This....

Denver got no business being favored over the Steelers right now. Manning takes one hit and he could be through. Denver has a decent D but not enough O to handle the Steelers.

The Packers D was what 31st last year. San Fran took care of business in the off season and will beat the Pack like a red headed step-child

Jets ain't ready to play anybody yet, the Bill win easily.

We beat Tenn but need a late field goal to do it, Tenn covers

Those here that like Oak move to the head of the line.



That's all I got

Based on the point spreads I like 2 dogs to win outright... KC & TB

I think the Panthers are still a year away and TB has more talent than people realize and is better coached than last year.

 I think  the Chiefs D is good enough to shut down the falcons and the Chiefs at home are a tough beat.

TexasPat, this year you need to keep a running tally of your predictions, and add it to the bottom of your post each week

It's an element youve left out in the past. Needs to be there. Readership demands it!

Peace

In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:


     We're talking SB contending Patriots here...not the up and coming Cincinnati Bengals. Though the Titans are a decent team, they are in no way an elite team. If the Pats have a ton of trouble with them, or get beat, it's time for concern. The only way that the Pats will have a tough time or lose, is if their OL gets manhandled. There's simply no excuse for them not being able to beat above average Titans by at least a TD.

This post has been removed.

In response to AcheNot's comment:


Agreed, I would like to see TP add this also.  Would make it a tad bit more interesting and put a little bit more pressure on TP.

In response to TexasPat's comment:


Oka,y if you don't want this stickied to the top then can I suggest it being stickied to the bottom.  We could find it at, like page 865.

I kid, I kid.  Good write up TP.  btw, you lost with th giants pick which is a surprise.  I didnt see that outcome happening.  The first big game Romo didnt choke in.  I believe the giants really thought they would walk all over the cboys!

In response to TexasPat's comment:



Well the spread is 6 I believe. Tenn will be scrapy and Johnson will re-bound from last seasons holdout.

Over the years I tend to shy away from 7 point and above spreads very early in the season. If this was November I would have no problems laying the 6-6.5. The Pats are still getting things together and yes are clearly the better team. It's just at this point (week one) I'm playing my usual positions and taking the 6-6.5 but expecting a Pats victory.

Of course I would love to see a Pats kick Tenn azz Sunday.

Theory holding so far plus giants tend to stink at home... anyone else pick the 'boys plus points ?