Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ewhite1065. Show ewhite1065's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    I'm going to bet 2 games this week.
    The first is the Ravens taking what I can get for points. I'm hoping to get 3 from one my guys but I believe they will win. I love getting points with teams that have a good shot at winning. Joe Namath was on Sirius NFL today and he made a good point saying that he thinks the Ravens won't shy away from Revis because he may be back but there is no way he is in Football shape.

    I'm actually going to go against your play of the week in the second game.
    I like Atlanta to beat a Steelers team with Dixon at QB for the Steelers. I think Atlanta will generate enough offense to pull this game out and the Points aren't big enough to scare me away.

    Good luck with whatever you bet!
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrick69. Show patrick69's posts

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    In Response to Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]     I wish that I had more confidence in the 2010 Patriots than I do. This is the first year in quite a while that I've had so little faith in the boys in blue. Injuries to Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden have further weakened their already mediocre defense. Injuries to Nick Kaczur (back) and Logan Mankins (mental fatigue greed) has weakened their OL...Laurence Maroney is hurt (again), Wes Welker returns from a serious knee injury, and that nagging hole at 3rd WR still remains. I also hate it that the Indianapolis Colts have surpassed the Pats as the team to beat in the AFC. Cheer me up, guys...tell me how, and why, I'm wrong!!      That said, here are my picks, with the "Game of the Week" being: 1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ New York Jets: Time for Rex Ryan's boys to begin to put up or shut up. Is LT a worthy replacement for Thomas Jones? Can the Jets exploit perceived weaknesses in the Baltimore secondary? Are the Jets ready to take the next step? I don't think so. PICK: Ravens; 2.) Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ New York Giants: The Panthers steam-rolled the G-men last year in NY. Giants' coach Tom Coughlin has undoubtedly reminded his team of that by replaying film of that embarrassing loss. Look for the Giants to open up their offense, try to take an early lead, and make the Panthers try to beat them through the air. PICK: Giants; 3.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3 ): The Bills' "D" will be tested by the 'Fins supposedly new versatile attack. But, I can't see Tony Sparano or Bill Parcells straying too far away from the running game. As Patriots fans know, early in the season is usually the worst time to play the Bills...who haven't yet grown accustomed to losing. Though Miami's defense isn't any better than the Patriots' crew...they seem to have too many weapons for the Bills: PICK: Miami; 4.) Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2): Can't believe that the Steelers have been made 'dogs at home...even without Ben Roethlisberger. This is one of the best plays of the week: PICK: Steelers; 5.) Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears : Expect the boos to be cascading down on the Bears like December snowflakes, all season long. If they can't win this game, it will get ugly: PICK: Lions; 6.) Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ New England Patriots : The Patriots always seem to get off to slow starts. The Bengals have an underrated defense, a good running attack, and a fair passing game. Job one for the beleaguered Pats "D" will be to stop the run. On offense, the Pats must establish a rushing attack, and protect Tom Brady. Don't forget that these Bengals won the AFC North last season, beating both the Steelers and Ravens twice in the process. With DE Antoine Odom supposedly out due to a drug suspension, DE Carlos Dunlap, the guy the Pats passed on to take Jermaine Cunningham, may play a major role in this game: PICK: Bengals;       7.) Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: In this, the battle of the Joshes, can Josh Cribbs be the Browns' one man show, as he was in the latter part of last season?...or, will Tampa's young QB, Josh Freeman, show that he has what it takes to be a franchise QB? Can Jake DelHomme avoid turnovers? PICK: Browns; 8.) Denver Broncos (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars : Kyle Orton is a better QB than given credit for. The dink and dunk will be in vogue in Denver. Jacksonville has Maurice Jones-Drew, and little else. Josh McDaniels will find a way: PICK: Broncos; 9.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+2.5 ): Hard to believe that some people actually believe that the Texans can win his game. This, along with the Steeler game discussed above, are great plays: PICK: Colts; 10.) Oakland Raiders (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans : The Raiders should be better this year. But, so should the Titans. This is a big game for Patriots fans, hoping to gain a high draft pick from another brutal Raiders' season. But, the Raiders have a cream-puff schedule early...and an Oakland win could ensure an undefeated September...since their next two games are home against St. Louis, and at Arizona. I like the Titans...but the question is, "can the Raiders cover"? PICK: Titans; 11.) Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3): Those of you who have read my recent Power Ratings post, know that I have the Packers listed at #2 in the NFL. As for the Eagles, I don't know what to expect from Kevin Kolb. The key for GB is containing the top home-run hitter in the game, Eagles' WR DeSean Jackson. The key for the Eagles is to get pressure on Packers' QB, Aaron Rodgers.  PICK: Packers; 12.) San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3): The 49ers have a chance to send a message that the NFC West is theirs. I have little confidence in Seattle QB, Matt Hasselbeck. Why did Pete Carroll trade those high draft choices to San Diego for Charlie Whitehurst, if he had no intention of starting him?  PICK: 49ers; 13.) Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+4): If the Rams are going to be better than the cellar dwellers that I predicted them to be, they must win this game. I like rookie Sam Bradford, an the points, over veteran Derek Anderson: PICK: Rams; 14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): I have great respect for 'Skins' coach, Mike Shanahan. The Dallas Cowboys are overrated.  PICK: Redskins; 15.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5 ): The Chargers have blown a great chance at getting to a SB by the poor handling of the Vincent Jackson mess. Why didn't they, as Denver did, work out a pre-draft trade? Why couldn't they have done something more to get him signed? Isn't he at least worth Miles Austin type money? With Jackson, the Charger aerial attack was devastating. They compounded their stubbornness by refusing to ante up for Philip Rivers' top body guard, LT Marcus McNeill. In fairness to the Bolts, I don't know what transpired in their negotiations with both players. But, with a new stadium in the balance, along with a legitimate shot at a SB...why pick this time to be thrifty? Charger fans deserve better. PICK: Chargers.        Thoughts?            
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    I agree 100% with your thoughts on the Pats.  I don't see how anyone on this board can think that te D is going to stop anyone.  They looked totally lost.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ New York Jets: PICK: Ravens;

    2.) Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ New York Giants:
    PICK: Giants;

    3.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): PICK: Buffalo;

    4.) Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2):PICK: Falcons;

    5.) Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears: PICK: Bears;

    6.) Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ New England Patriots: PICK: Patriots;
         
    7.) Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: PICK: Bucs;

    8.) Denver Broncos (+3) @ Jacksonville JaguarsPICK: Jaguars;

    9.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+2.5):PICK: Texans;

    10.) Oakland Raiders (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: PICK: Titans;

    11.) Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3): PICK: eagles;

    12.) San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3): PICK: 49ers;

    13.) Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+4):
    PICK: Cardinals;

    14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): PICK: Redskins;

    15.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): PICK: Chiefs
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

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    In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week : I agree 100% with your thoughts on the Pats.  I don't see how anyone on this board can think that te D is going to stop anyone.  They looked totally lost.
    Posted by patrick69[/QUOTE]

    Just have faith they'll get it together. be careful Tcal will give you a pink hat
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from rolltide1963. Show rolltide1963's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    iPatriots - chalk up the "W".  But will they beat the Spread ?

    Brady passing to his cast off recievers over Palmer passing to his cast of recievers, regardless of the defenses on the field. 

    I see it NE 28 - Cincinnati 24
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]iPatriots - chalk up the "W".  But will they beat the Spread ? Brady passing to his cast off recievers over Palmer passing to his cast of recievers, regardless of the defenses on the field.  I see it NE 28 - Cincinnati 24
    Posted by rolltide1963[/QUOTE]

    you mean cast "of" right, not cast "off"Smile
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from akius. Show akius's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ New York Jets: PICK: Ravens;

    2.) Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ New York Giants: PICK: Panthers;

    3.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): PICK: Dolphins;

    4.) Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2):PICK: Falcons;

    5.) Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears: PICK: Bears;

    6.) Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ New England Patriots: PICK: Patriots;

    7.) Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: PICK: Browns;

    8.) Denver Broncos (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: PICK: Jags;

    9.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+2.5):PICK: Indy;

    10.) Oakland Raiders (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: PICK: Titans;

    11.) Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3): PICK: Packers;

    12.) San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3): PICK: 49ers;

    13.) Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+4): PICK: Cardinals;

    14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): PICK: Cowboys;

    15.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): PICK: Chargers

     

    Lets see who wins.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jbolted. Show jbolted's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    you're late
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sam-Adams. Show Sam-Adams's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    Tex, the Pats need some of the kids to step and take on the responsibility. We won't know if that will happen for a few weeks. If this D can hold it together and get an identity of their own, as a unit, this team will be going deep in the play-offs.

    With Crumpler blowing people out Maroney will put up 1,200, the rest will get us to 2,300 on the ground.

    The third receiver will be Hernandez, Edelman, Tate and Gronk will be strong contributers and anything we see from Crumpler and Pryce will be a bonus.

    It's depth at the lines, if we have guys going down to injury who watches TB's back. I really wished they could've worked something out with Mankins. Maybe it's not too late.

    Keep the chin up, even if we don't do some of these things we'll still be better than the Jets.  

    1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ New York Jets: Ravens

    2.) Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ New York Giants: Giants

    3.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): Dolphins

    4.) Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2): Falcons

    5.) Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears: Lions

    6.) Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ New England Patriots: Pats
         
    7.) Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs 

    8.) Denver Broncos (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars

    9.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+2.5): Colts

    10.) Oakland Raiders (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Titans

    11.) Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3): Packers

    12.) San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3): 49ers

    13.) Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+4): Rams

    14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): Cowboys

    15.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): Chargers
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jbolted. Show jbolted's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ New York Jets:  The Jest should go all the way. All the way out there, that is. Be ready for The Super Bowl Shuffle II to come out any day. Thats the last time an arrogant team won the SB. Unless SB Shuffle II comes out, they're skyruuued. Ravens are good and pissed off. (See last JAN)
    PICK: Ravens;

    2.) Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ New York Giants:
    The Panthers have big a ? at QB. Til that gets proved, nope.
    PICK: Giants;

    3.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): THe fish have made good improvements (Dansby & Marshall) and cuts (Bust WR) IMO. Should be a major threat along with your boys for the East title.
    PICK: Miami;

    4.) Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2): Defense is always tough in PITT, Turner has to get alot (130)for ATL to have shot IMO.
    PICK: Steelers;

    5.) Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears: Cutler's alltime record as the starting QB since college = 35-64, that's a whoppin' 35% win ratio since 2002. This season, the mental midget with a boatload of ability fails to lead his team over the .500 mark for the first time EVER, again. This guy is king of the all hype team. 
    PICK: Lions;

    6.) Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ New England Patriots: Does anybody besides Cris Collingsworth really think that TO & OchoCinco will actually work out? Brady will show why he got paid.
    PICK: Patriots;
         
    7.) Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: When I saw Jerome Harrison run the ball last year at the end of the season, he looked very good doing so.PICK: Browns;

    8.) Denver Broncos (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: I think the donkeys will win this game and finish last in the AFC West.
    PICK: Broncos;

    9.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+2.5): 8 months to prepare for this, is it enough? yes
    PICK: Texans

    10.) Oakland Raiders (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: I see this game as Vince Young vs. Jason Campbell because these teams match up pretty closely IMO (minus CJ of course). Jason is going to have make me a believer first.
    PICK: Titans;

    11.) Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3): Kevin Kolb -who I told all of you about as a sleeper before he was drafted is getting no respect in this matchup- is very good. Aaron Rodgers is picked to win the SB by alot of people with his mates, however, the problem is that he has never won a playoff game, and this year he's supposed to win 4? Sorry Pack fans, I think not.
    PICK: Eagles;

    12.) San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3): My Bolts played SF this preseason and the 9ers D looks very good. 9ers in a low scoring affair.
    PICK: 49ers;

    13.) Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+4):
    The Rams stunk last year, show me first, show me state.
    PICK: Cards;

    14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): I do not have great respect for 'Skins' coach, Mike Shanahan. The Dallas Cowboys are overrated. 
    PICK: Redskins;

    15.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): The Chargers youth movement is great for this team. The Dline is the biggest question mark on this team. Malcolm Floyd will showcase his talents and Ryan Mathews will gain 1200 at least. This team is going to be 11-5 or 12-4 with a home field bye. Who cares though? As this team needs to finally play excellent football in JAN/FEB. Antoine Cason gets his shot and will actually tackle on running plays unlike his predecessor. Coaching is a concern as well. Matt Cassell will be a bench ridin' QB after this season, he's just not that good.
    PICK: Chargers.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Jimmy42Jack0. Show Jimmy42Jack0's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    only game i care about is in buffalo

    and i have the phins by 10+...contain spiller and dont let evans beat you deep and you win
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Indylove. Show Indylove's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    The only games that matter:

    I got the colts losing and the pats losing.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    I took a 3 team teaser. Teased 6 points.

    Saints + 1/2

    Colts +3 1/2

    Pats + 1 1/2

    1 down 2 to go. I don't see any of these teams losing on opening day. My biggest question is Colts on the road in Houston, but I like +3.5 for them any day.

    Texas Pat, Bengals defense is better then the Pats( for now) but the Bengals offense is nowhere in the same vicinity. Pats 31 Bengals 20.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from FishTaco64. Show FishTaco64's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ New York Jets: Ravens

    2.) Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ New York Giants: Giants

    3.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): Dolphins

    4.) Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2): Falcons

    5.) Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears: Lions

    6.) Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ New England Patriots: Pats
         
    7.) Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs 

    8.) Denver Broncos (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars

    9.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+2.5): Texans

    10.) Oakland Raiders (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Titans

    11.) Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3): Packers

    12.) San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3): 49ers

    13.) Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+4): Cardinals

    14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): Cowboys

    15.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): Chargers
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ewhite1065. Show ewhite1065's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]only game i care about is in buffalo and i have the phins by 10+...contain spiller and dont let evans beat you deep and you win
    Posted by Jimmy42Jack0[/QUOTE]

    Jimmy.That's one of the most interesting games this week. Spiller looked awesome in preseason and it's a division game. I actually like Miami becasue I don't believe in the Bills but these AFC east games can always go either way. I stay away from them.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sam-Adams. Show Sam-Adams's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    Some say the team who drops a game to Buffalo is in trouble in the east Mr. White but I don't buy into that. I see the Jets as a .500 team and Miami one game ahead of them.

    LT gets hurt, Sanchez doesn't catch on in a difficult sophomore year

    Henne struggles with full time conventional offense, coaching drops off

    Pats D grab an identity of their own and jell, O performs as expected. 11-5

     
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    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    1.) Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ New York Jets: 
    PICK: Jets              Hate to say it.  Jets D is better than Ravens, and I think even Sanchize can throw on that secondary.  Hope Im wrong

    2.) Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ New York Giants
    Pick Giants;

    3.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): :
    Pick Miami;

    4.) Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2): Two words- Dennis Dixon
    PICK: Falcons

    5.) Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears::
    PICK: Bears;

    6.) Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ New England Patriots:Pats offense does it's thing, defense ok, not spectacular:
    PICK: Bengals;
         
    7.) Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
    PICK: Browns;

    8.) Denver Broncos (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars:
    PICK: Broncos;

    9.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+2.5)
    PICK: Texans     NO, I don't think they actually can win.  I'm just hoping.  Colts have been a bit cold starting lately.  

    10.) Oakland Raiders (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: PICK: Titans;

    11.) Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3): PICK: Packers;

    12.) San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3): PICK: 49ers;

    13.) Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+4): 
    PICK: Rams;

    14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+3.5):PICK: Redskins;

    15.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5):PICK: Chiefs.  MATT CASSEL comes alive!


     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE] San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5 ): The Chargers youth movement is great for this team. The Dline is the biggest question mark on this team. Malcolm Floyd will showcase his talents and Ryan Mathews will gain 1200 at least. This team is going to be 11-5 or 12-4 with a home field bye. Who cares though? As this team needs to finally play excellent football in JAN/FEB. Antoine Cason gets his shot and will actually tackle on running plays unlike his predecessor. Coaching is a concern as well. Matt Cassell will be a bench ridin' QB after this season, he's just not that good. PICK: Chargers.
    Posted by jbolted[/QUOTE]

         Bolt...did you read my comments regarding the way Chargers' management has handled the Jackson and McNeill matters? I can't understand how you can think that the Bolts will be a better club without them. Seems like wishful thinking.   
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jbolted. Show jbolted's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week :      Bolt...did you read my comments regarding the way Chargers' management has handled the Jackson and McNeill matters? I can't understand how you can think that the Bolts will be a better club without them. Seems like wishful thinking.   
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]
    Tex:
    The upgrade at RB and solidifying a tackling secondary is huge.
    Malcolm Floyd will almost match Vincent Jackson's #s if VJ doesn't play a down in SD. On top of that Patrick Crayton is solid too. Lega duu Naanee will have a break out year as well. Gates had his best years ever last year and should come close again. Brandyn Dombrowski is very solid on Oline and has filled in excellently for BigMac at LT. Ski had a great year last season in starting 8 games for injured players on Oline. The guy has excellent technique on his run blocking and pass protection. I think Jackson will never play in a Charger uniform again & BigMac will be in after the 3rd game IMO.
     
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    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week : Tex: The upgrade at RB and solidifying a tackling secondary is huge. Malcolm Floyd will almost match Vincent Jackson's #s if VJ doesn't play a down in SD. On top of that Patrick Crayton is solid too. Lega duu Naanee will have a break out year as well. Gates had his best years ever last year and should come close again. Brandyn Dombrowski is very solid on Oline and has filled in excellently for BigMac at LT. Ski had a great year last season in starting 8 games for injured players on Oline. The guy has excellent technique on his run blocking and pass protection. I think Jackson will never play in a Charger uniform again & BigMac will be in after the 3rd game IMO.
    Posted by jbolted[/QUOTE]

    If you had to your money on 1 guy to carry the load, would you say Floyd or Naanee?
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    I'm going to repost my calls from about Monday, as soon as the betting public's odds came out.

    My points versus the betting public:

    Visitor  Home     my pts   The betting public   Discrepancy

    9-Sep

    min       no            7.1            5            2.1

    Actual point spread, 5 points.  More than good enough for a 1 game start, considering that Brett Favre's absence in preseason dragged the point spread off a bit.

    12-Sep

    car       nyg            -0.6            7            -7.6

    cin        ne            9.6            4.5            5.1

    oak      ten            8.5            6.5            2.0

    det       chi            9.1            6            3.1

    mia       buf            3.8            -3            6.8

    atl         pit            1.7            -2.5            4.2

    den       jac            -2.9            2.5            -5.4

    ind        hou            1.1            -2            3.1

    cle        tb            2.5            2.5            0.0

    az         stl            0.7            -4            4.7

    gb        phi            2.6            -2.5            5.1

    sf          sea            -4.5            -3            -1.5

    dal        was            -2.0            -3.5            1.5

    For this season, a major call versus the point spread will be a difference of 6 points or more, and a minor call is a difference of 4 points or more.

    Remember that my stats are blind to recent injury news and to recent signings.  I come up with the stats and let others adjust numbers to their particular taste.  As always, gambling is for people who don’t understand mathematics (or sometimes for people who fix games).

    Major calls

    car       nyg            -0.6            7            -7.6

    Carolina won their last three games in 2009.  The Giants lost their last two games in 2009.  I have Carolina as a stronger team, but the betting public resides heavily in New York City, not out in the boonies.

    mia       buf            3.8            -3            6.8

    Buffalo finished only one game behind Miami in 2009.  Miami lost their last 3 games in 2009, and then they performed badly against Tampa Bay’s first stringers and Atlanta’s first stringers this pre-season.  Again, nobody bets on a long-time loser out in the boondocks.  Everybody bets on the team with the famous names.

    Minor calls:

    cin        ne            9.6            4.5            5.1

    Until they lost Wes Welker last season, New England had shown plenty of clout against various teams.  Welker’s back.  The team had one huge draft class maturing this year, a good sign, and another huge class coming in, so they might be expected to do even better.  Then they pushed New Orleans and Atlanta first stringers all over the field, even without Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden.  If anything, I’d be suspicious that their power rating has been made artificially low by Bill Belichick not caring at all about winning preseason games.  Cincinnati on the other hand had a lousy playoff experience and the numbers say that their first stringers bungled the whole preseason.  Now why will these trends not continue?

    atl         pit            1.7            -2.5            4.2

    This call is problematic with Roethlisberger being suspended.  I’d scratch this one.  The gamblers aren’t completely stupid.

    den       jac            -2.9            2.5            -5.4

    Jacksonville lost their last 4 games in 2009.  Their first-stringers looked lousy against Miami, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay in preseason, so they’re still on that bender.  Denver’s first stringers beat up on Cincinnati and Pittsburgh but looked kind of poor against Detroit.

    az         stl            0.7            -4            4.7

    I go with the stats, and the stats say that St. Louis actually has half a team, the New England game wasn’t a fluke for them, and Matt Leinart isn’t that good right now.  St. Louis is a home underdog, always a good position, especially when the betting public avoids long-time losers like the plague.

    gb        phi            2.6            -2.5            5.1

    Philadelphia had a great run last year until they met Dallas.  They had a good preseason too.  Green Bay and Philly were both 11-5 teams last year.  My numbers think they’re pretty equal teams this year, but for some reason people don’t like Philly at home.

    So there you have it.  My statistics are not better than the Vegas line because they’re news-blind, but at least they’re competitive, and people will have a base upon which they can figure out why the gambling public sometimes steers away from the numbers.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]   
    Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ New York Giants: .... PICK: Giants; 

    Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+3.5):...  PICK: Redskins; 

    San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5 ): ...PICK: Chargers.                    
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    Good picks for the most part.  These are the ones I disagree with. 

    My pick for a surprise NFC team this season is Carolina.  They tend to follow mediocrity with excellence under Fox.  You seem to have more respect for the Giants than is warranted in my view.   The Panthers can pressure the QB with best of the NFL and they can control the ball against the G-men enough keep it close and if not win outright (which I predict), at least cover 6.5.  The revenge factor is way overrated.

    Wash/Dallas is a hard game to judge.  The rivalry factor (unlike the revenge factor) can have an affect.  But Dallas is stacked offensively and I just don't think McNabb has had enough reps with this offense to keep up.  I see him playing like Favre on Thursday, if even that effective. 

    KC is my pick to click as a surprise team in the AFC.  I see a big year from Cassell and that offense.  This game will be close, could go either way, but the Chefs cover in a 34-31 type of affair. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week : Good picks for the most part.  These are the ones I disagree with.  My pick for a surprise NFC team this season is Carolina.  They tend to follow mediocrity with excellence under Fox.  You seem to have more respect for the Giants than is warranted in my view.   The Panthers can pressure the QB with best of the NFL and they can control the ball against the G-men enough keep it close and if not win outright (which I predict), at least cover 6.5.  The revenge factor is way overrated.
     
    RESPONSE: Hope you're wrong, Muz...if for no other reason that that the Pats' own Carolina's second round pick in 2011. So, the worse they do, the better it is for the Pats. The Giants usually get off to quick starts...andthis will be the opening regular season game in their new stadium. They appear to have what it takes to shut down Carolina's running game. When they played the Panthers last season, they were decimated by injuries. People seem to forget that, after the Giants won the SB, they remained unquestionably the best team in the NFL, until 10 games into the 2008 season, when Plaxico Burress pulled his assclown act, and was gone. 

    Wash/Dallas is a hard game to judge.  The rivalry factor (unlike the revenge factor) can have an affect.  But Dallas is stacked offensively and I just don't think McNabb has had enough reps with this offense to keep up.  I see him playing like Favre on Thursday, if even that effective.

    RESPONSE: The Dallas offense has looked terrible in the pre-season. Doug Free starting at LT isa major concern. Though Tony Romo has skills, he doesn't appear to be a leader. Mike Shanahan is still one of the games' better coaches. Watch for Albert Haynesworth to answer his critics with a monster game.   

    KC is my pick to click as a surprise team in the AFC.  I see a big year from Cassell and that offense.  This game will be close, could go either way, but the Chefs cover in a 34-31 type of affair.

    RESPONSE: A possibility. Have you read the comments by our buddy Bolt, above? I can't see how the Chargers hope to be a better team without their #1 WR from last year, and without their best offensive protector in McNeill.
    Posted by Muzwell[/QUOTE]
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jbolted. Show jbolted's posts

    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week : If you had to your money on 1 guy to carry the load, would you say Floyd or Naanee?
    Posted by TrueChamp[/QUOTE]
    Floyd has great hands and a route runner, while Naanee is more the speedster, they're both very as good as y'all will find out on 10/24.
    I'd say Floyd is better though.
     
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    Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week One NFL Picks and Game of the Week :
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    TEX: Brandyn Dombrowski started 8 games and played at a high level to the point that I felt he should assume a starting role at RT over Jeromey Clary or oft-hurt Nick Hardwick. Dombrowski played all positions except LG last year and thats because the Bolts have All-pro Kris Deilman there.When I was at the games last year watchin' Deilman closely, he pancaked alot guys that ended up hobbling off the field. Deilman is a tough guy, to be sure. These other guys (Ski,Floyd & Naanee) have 'it', so dont be shocked when you see for yourself. I'm more concerned with Dline & Antoine Cason in coverage than anything else.
     

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