Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

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    Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Coming off a shabby 6-8 week on the NFL links, including two I hit far off into the lumber yard (a little Caddyshack reference here)...picking the Giants over the Saints, and the Eagles to cover a 2 TD point spread against the Raiders. Hard to believe that the Eagles were beaten by the Raiders...one week after getting shellacked by the Giants, 44-7, in NY.

         That said, its' time to take out the driver, and tee off on Week Seven, with my "Game of the Week" being: 

    1.) Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: With the emergence of RB Rashard Mendenhall, the Steelers are becoming a lethal offensive team. The return of SS Troy Polamalu should bolster what has been at times a shaky defense. The still unbeaten Vikings tried hard to give away last weeks' game to the Ravens, and nearly succeeded. They must play a full 60 minutes of quality football if they hope to upset the Steelers. Look for Ben Roethlisberger to exploit whoever replaces injured star CB, Antoine Winfield.
    PICK: Steelers;

    2.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5):
    With condolences to my pal Bolt, I just don't like how the Chargers are playing. Too much talking and whining, and too little blocking and tackling. Coming off their first win against the woeful Redskins, the Chiefs will be on the warpath to make it two in a row. But, Philip Rivers is an elite QB, with a very good set of receivers. Despite Norv and another expected Shawne Merriman no-show, Rivers should put up enough points to delay the necessary firing of Norv for at least another week:
    PICK: Chargers; 

    3.) Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams (+13): The Colts were on their bye week in week 6. This means that Peyton Manning and his team had two weeks to prepare for the 0-5 Rams...in a game to be played in a dome. The Rams step into their dome...with the Colts awaiting them. The result? To quote Captain Quint in a song he sang to shark expert Matt Hooper, after Hooper told Quint he wanted to be lowered in his shark cage into the water, with the leviathan great white in the movie, Jaws, "Farewell, and ado, to you fair Spanish ladies...farewell and ado, to you ladies of Spain..."
    PICK: Colts;

    4.) Chicago Bears (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Besides the fact that Bears' QB, Jay Cutler, is vastly overrated, the other problem the Bears have is they lack a running attack. They could really use a big, physical, every down bull of a back to take some of the heat off Cutler. The Bengals have such a player in RB Cedric Benson. Gee...why can't the Bears get a player like that? 
    PICK: Bengals;

    5.) Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns (+7): It won't be so easy this week for the Pack as it was last, when they played at home against the Lions. Nonetheless, Aaron Rodgers should put up enough points to cover the spread against the punchless Browns:
    PICK: Packers;

    6.) New England Patriots (London) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14.5): 
    Barring the type of horrendous weather that the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins sloshed around in two years ago, Tom Brady should throw several more TD passes in an easy win. The Pats will win, but the Bucs will find a way to cover:
    PICK: Buccaneers;

    7.) San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans: The Jeckyl and Hyde Texans are coming off their best performance of the season. The 49ers are coming off their worst game of the year. Rookie WR Michael Crabtree makes his much anticipated first NFL start in this one. Who knows which Texan team will show up this week?
    PICK: Texans;

    8.) NY Jets @ Oakland Raiders (+6.5): Jets' QB Mark Sanchez can't wait to return to the west coast after a rough day on the other coast, in which he tossed five...count 'em Leon...five (5) interceptions. After getting "titaned" by the Giants in week 5, the Raiders somehow managed to pull off a huge upset over the heavily favored Eagles last week. After a 3-0 start, the Jets have lost three straight.
    PICK: Raiders;

    9.) Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Carolina Panthers: What a premiere matchup of QBs...Harvard's Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Bills, and Jake "the Human Turnover" DelHomme, for the Panthers. Though they won, the Bills had a ton of trouble stopping the run last week against the Jets. Look for them to play eight in the box, and force DelHomme to beat them through the air. 
    PICK: Bills;

    10.) New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins (+6.5): 
    The Saints blow out the Giants last week, yet are less than a TD favorite in Miami? Expect another huge day for Drew Brees against the weak Dolphin secondary:
    PICK: Saints;

    11.) Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: Judging from the line in this game and the Saints/Miami game discussed above, Tony Soprano is getting in the Christmas spirit very early this year.
    PICK: Falcons;

    12.) Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ NY Giants: As is the case in the 49er/Texan game, the Giants are coming off their worst game of the season, while the Cards are coming off their best. Cards' WR Anquan Bolden will miss this game with an ankle injury...while the Giants will likely be without RB Brandon Jacobs and RT Kareem McKenzie. The G-men will be an angry team after getting embarrassed by the Saints. Thats' bad news for Kurt Warner and company:
    PICK: Giants;

    13.) Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+7): The Eagles are coming off an embarrassing debacle in Oakland. The Redskins are coming off one of a number of embarrassing performances this season. The 'Skins will add this one to that growing list, as Jim Zorn coaches his last game in DC:
    PICK: Eagles.

         BEST BETS: Colts, Saints, Falcons, Giants, and Eagles. 

         Thoughts?
      
            


         

     
      
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I think the Saints/Fins line has to do with matchups.

    The Saints can't stop the run, and the Fins can run. People watched the fins almost take the Colts down, despite having terrible safety play, because they couldn't get on the field.

    If I were picking an upset this week, that would be it.

    Altough, the Fins have the same issue the Gints have, poor safety play. NO will look to capitalize on that again.
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    1.) Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Old timer Vike fans hate this team as much as any other. Minnesota gave up 448 yards to BAL, conversely, PIT gave up 197 to CLE. Though the difference of 250 yards will decrease this week, it wont be enough as MIN loses their first game. I hope I’m wrong PICK: Steelers;

    2.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): The Chargers at 2-3 need to play decent up front. I think this game will be over 400 yards of offense for SD.  PICK: Chargers; 

    3.) Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams (+13): STL has the worst Oline in the league. PICK: Colts;

    4.) Chicago Bears (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Bears leading rusher last week was Cutler. The Bengals gave up a whoppin’ 472 yards against the Texans last week. I see a shoot out comin’ with total points being between 70-80 PICK: Bengals;

    5.) Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns (+7) Cleveland against a team that pitched a shutout last week.  PICK: Packers;

    6.) New England Patriots (in London) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14.5): It is bad advertising for NFL to have a blowout in London PICK: Buccaneers;

    7.) San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans: I think #50 gets his team to bounce back and Houston is not that good PICK: 9ers;

    8.) NY Jets @ Oakland Raiders (+6.5): Things are off in NY, travel across country. Rex expected to beat BUF, didn’t. 1st time in the Black hole for a rookie QB.     PICK: Raiders;

    9.) Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Carolina Panthers: To many points for me to take CAR. BUF pass rush will get to Jake PICK: Bills;

    10.) New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins (+6.5): Upset of the year. Dolphins win outright. Potential trap game.  Maybe…………..nah PICK: Saints;

    11.) Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: 2 weeks for Wade Phillips to plan for Ryan and crew. ATL didn’t show me enough against CHI PICK: Cowboys;

    12.) Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ NY Giants: Hey Jintsfan, I picked your Giants against NO. What a huge mistake that was as ELI stunk up the bayou. The soft Giant DBs will give this game away PICK: Cards;

    13.) Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+7): WAS will cover in a yawner  PICK: skins.

         BEST BETS: Colts, Pack

     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         JBolt:

         It will be interesting to see whether your Chargers can turn things around in KC. If not, we may have seen the last of Norv.
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    1.) Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:   My number:  Pitt by only 2.4 points. 

    The return of SS Troy Polamalu should bolster what has been at times a shaky defense. Look for Ben Roethlisberger to exploit whoever replaces injured star CB, Antoine Winfield.”

    Injury reports swing this one back toward Pitts a little bit.  All of my numbers are injury-blind.

    2.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5):   My number:  KC to win by 0.3 points.  Ouch!

    3.) Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams (+13): My number:  Indy by 13.8 points.  Statistical wash.

    4.) Chicago Bears (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: My number:  Chicago by 1.8 points.  Another wash. 

    5.) Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns (+7): My number:  Green Bay by only 1.3 points.  It’s not that I like Cleveland.  Really!  My computer has a mind of its own!

    6.) New England Patriots (London) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14.5): My number:  Pats by 17.0.  Add 3 points to the 17 because TB in London gets no homefield advantage at all.  I have no mercy rule in the computer for the snowy Flaming Thumbtack game.  Then again, this is another Titans-type game, so I’ll lean toward the Pats with the supreme blowout.

    7.) San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans: My number:  Houston by only 0.9 points.  That leans toward SF.

    8.) NY Jets @ Oakland Raiders (+6.5): My number:  Jets by 9.9.  Dramatic injury factor against the Jets on top of this number, with Kris Jenkins out, something about Damien Woody, and possibly the Sanchize isn’t functioning, so I’ll barely go with the Raiders.

    9.) Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Carolina Panthers: My number:  Bills by 2.8 points.  The problem is, Bills have QB injury issues.  This one’s not about numbers, it’s a pure human judgment call under pressure.  Coin flip.  Edwards was turtle food anyways.  OK, Bills.

    10.) New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins (+6.5): My number:  NO by only 1.2 points. 

    11.) Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: My number:  Atlanta winning by 6.3 points!  By far the easiest pick of the week.

    12.) Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ NY Giants: My number:  NYG by only 0.7 points.  “Cards' WR Anquan Bolden will miss this game with an ankle injury...while the Giants will likely be without RB Brandon Jacobs and RT Kareem McKenzie.”  The two injury reports are a wash.  Cardinals!

    13.) Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+7): My number:  PHI by only 3.3 points.  Lean toward Washington.

    Biggest calls:  Atlanta, KC, Cardinals, Cleveland, Dolphins

    = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

    Last week’s record against the spread

    11 pt statistical discrepancy for Detroit over Green Bay

    Terrible call.  I did not read the injury report at all before writing this.  Maybe I’ll learn my lesson about recent injury reports.  Detroit’s #1 pick quarterback out.  Detroit’s next best player out too.  My stats are always blind to injuries. 

     

    4 pt discrepancy,  atl over chi

    Good call.  This discrepancy got bigger in Atlanta’s favor just before game time.  Just before the game I called for an 11.1 point win.  Atlanta came through with a 7 point win.  Good enough. 

     

    Late Sunday call, 4.5 point discrepancy, Denver over SD.

    Good call.  Denver by 11 outdid me, though.

     

    3 pts, Vikings over ravens

    So-so indicator, and bad call against the spread in the end.  Baltimore laid down for a while but got hot all of a sudden.

     

    2 pts stl over jac

    Marginal indicator, good call.

     

    2 pts No over gints

    Marginal indicator, good call.

     

    2 pts tampa bay over car.

    Marginal indicator, bad call.

     

    2 pts pats over ten

    Marginal indicator, good call.  Pats covered the 9.5 point spread by a bit more than 2 points.  This is another game where factoring the injury report in would have given a slightly better pre-read on the game, although nobody and nothing would have called for a 59 point spread. 

     

    2 pts nyj over buf

    marginal indicator, bad call, and lots of injuries didn’t help things.
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Paul

    how do you get your number
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     JBolt:      It will be interesting to see whether your Chargers can turn things around in KC. If not, we may have seen the last of Norv.
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    Tex:
    I do not like how these players perform under Norv and Rivera. In my opinion show them and AJ the door after the year is up, anything short of a Lombardi. And will everybody in the media please quit the 'Chargers have the most talented roster' garbage, it's just not true, nor has it been as such.
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     Coming off a shabby 6-8 week on the NFL links, including two I hit far off into the lumber yard (a little Caddyshack reference here)...picking the Giants over the Saints, and the Eagles to cover a 2 TD point spread against the Raiders. Hard to believe that the Eagles were beaten by the Raiders...one week after getting shellacked by the Giants, 44-7, in NY.      That said, its' time to take out the driver, and tee off on Week Seven, with my "Game of the Week" being:  1.) Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: With the emergence of RB Rashard Mendenhall, the Steelers are becoming a lethal offensive team. The return of SS Troy Polamalu should bolster what has been at times a shaky defense. The still unbeaten Vikings tried hard to give away last weeks' game to the Ravens, and nearly succeeded. They must play a full 60 minutes of quality football if they hope to upset the Steelers. Look for Ben Roethlisberger to exploit whoever replaces injured star CB, Antoine Winfield. PICK: Steelers; 2.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): With condolences to my pal Bolt, I just don't like how the Chargers are playing. Too much talking and whining, and too little blocking and tackling. Coming off their first win against the woeful Redskins, the Chiefs will be on the warpath to make it two in a row. But, Philip Rivers is an elite QB, with a very good set of receivers. Despite Norv and another expected Shawne Merriman no-show, Rivers should put up enough points to delay the necessary firing of Norv for at least another week: PICK: Chargers;  3.) Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams (+13): The Colts were on their bye week in week 6. This means that Peyton Manning and his team had two weeks to prepare for the 0-5 Rams...in a game to be played in a dome. The Rams step into their dome...with the Colts awaiting them. The result? To quote Captain Quint in a song he sang to shark expert Matt Hooper, after Hooper told Quint he wanted to be lowered in his shark cage into the water, with the leviathan great white in the movie, Jaws, "Farewell, and ado, to you fair Spanish ladies...farewell and ado, to you ladies of Spain..." PICK: Colts; 4.) Chicago Bears (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Besides the fact that Bears' QB, Jay Cutler, is vastly overrated, the other problem the Bears have is they lack a running attack. They could really use a big, physical, every down bull of a back to take some of the heat off Cutler. The Bengals have such a player in RB Cedric Benson. Gee...why can't the Bears get a player like that?  PICK: Bengals; 5.) Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns (+7 ): It won't be so easy this week for the Pack as it was last, when they played at home against the Lions. Nonetheless, Aaron Rodgers should put up enough points to cover the spread against the punchless Browns: PICK: Packers; 6.) New England Patriots (London) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14.5):  Barring the type of horrendous weather that the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins sloshed around in two years ago, Tom Brady should throw several more TD passes in an easy win. The Pats will win, but the Bucs will find a way to cover: PICK: Buccaneers; 7.) San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans:  The Jeckyl and Hyde Texans are coming off their best performance of the season. The 49ers are coming off their worst game of the year. Rookie WR Michael Crabtree makes his much anticipated first NFL start in this one. Who knows which Texan team will show up this week? PICK: Texans; 8.) NY Jets @ Oakland Raiders (+6.5): Jets' QB Mark Sanchez can't wait to return to the west coast after a rough day on the other coast, in which he tossed five...count 'em Leon...five (5) interceptions. After getting "titaned" by the Giants in week 5, the Raiders somehow managed to pull off a huge upset over the heavily favored Eagles last week. After a 3-0 start, the Jets have lost three straight. PICK: Raiders; 9.) Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Carolina Panthers: What a premiere matchup of QBs...Harvard's Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Bills, and Jake "the Human Turnover" DelHomme, for the Panthers. Though they won, the Bills had a ton of trouble stopping the run last week against the Jets. Look for them to play eight in the box, and force DelHomme to beat them through the air.  PICK: Bills; 10.) New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins (+6.5):  The Saints blow out the Giants last week, yet are less than a TD favorite in Miami? Expect another huge day for Drew Brees against the weak Dolphin secondary: PICK: Saints; 11.) Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: Judging from the line in this game and the Saints/Miami game discussed above, Tony Soprano is getting in the Christmas spirit very early this year. PICK: Falcons; 12.) Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ NY Giants: As is the case in the 49er/Texan game, the Giants are coming off their worst game of the season, while the Cards are coming off their best. Cards' WR Anquan Bolden will miss this game with an ankle injury...while the Giants will likely be without RB Brandon Jacobs and RT Kareem McKenzie. The G-men will be an angry team after getting embarrassed by the Saints. Thats' bad news for Kurt Warner and company: PICK: Giants; 13.) Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+7):  The Eagles are coming off an embarrassing debacle in Oakland. The Redskins are coming off one of a number of embarrassing performances this season. The 'Skins will add this one to that growing list, as Jim Zorn coaches his last game in DC: PICK: Eagles.       BEST BETS: Colts, Saints, Falcons, Giants, and Eagles.       Thoughts?                       
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]


    i think the pats will easily cover. I see the bucs scoring 10 points tops!
    pats win 34 10


    Ive gotten my past two upset picks correct, i had the dolphins over the jets on MNF and then i had the Texans over the Bengals this past sunday.

    This week im taking the Cardinals over the Giants.

    Cardinals are coming off a BIG divisional road win, they are goin to fired up for this game.

    Giants just got embarrassed and outclassed by the Saints.

    Warner is lethal against the blitz, look for Hightower to have a big game catching the ball out of the backfield.

    cards 30 giants 24
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : Tex: I do not like how these players perform under Norv and Rivera.

    RESPONSE: Why is it that you're blaming A.J. Smith because you "do not like how (the Charger) players perform under Norv and Rivera? It seems to me that the problem lies with Norv and Rivera for not getting the most out of their players. I think that we both agree that the Chargers have good players...and Smith is responsible for that. 

    In my opinion show them and AJ the door after the year is up, anything short of a Lombardi.

    RESPONSE: Spanos, for better or for worse, chose Smith over Marty Shottenheimer. In hindsight, that appears to have been a mistake. Although I think that Smith is a good GM, Shottenheimer commanded and got the respect of the troops. Say what you want about Marty-ball..but Shottenheimer was getting excellent production from his players. But for that fumble after a Brady pick by Marlin McCree, the Bolts likely would have been world champs in 2006.
     
    and will everybody in the media please quit the 'Chargers have the most talented roster' garbage, it's just not true, nor has it been as such.

    RESPONSE: On the contrary, theres' a lot of truth to that. You're team is underachieving. If BB, or, for that matter, Josh McDaniels, had taken over the Chargers during preseason, do you think that the Bolts would presently be 2-3? Your club is not that far off from being a true SB contender. I repeat..."NORV MUST GO!!"

    Posted by jbolted[/QUOTE]
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    1.) Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Mendenhall has a great game, while the Pittsburgh D holds A.D. down and makes Favre try to win the game.  With Troy back, it'll be hard for Favre to do what he needs to do to win.  Should be a close game, coming down to the very end.
    Game Pick: Steelers 

    2.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5):
    Chiefs coming off of a big win, yet failed to score a TD.  Chargers are going to be mad and playing for their jobs after that dreadful game on MNF.
    Game Pick: Chargers

    3.) Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams (+13): 
    Colts will be fine tuning their game against yet another crappy team, will probably be over before the middle of the third quarter.
    Game Pick: Colts

    4.) Chicago Bears (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
    Interesting game.  Cutler throws some wild passes and turns it over.  While the Bengals are coming off of a loss that shouldn't have been.  This will go down to the wire, yet again, for the Bengals but I see it as another crazy W.
    Game Pick: Bengals

    5.) Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns (+7
    ): Packers will probably struggle to put them away until late in the 4th quarter, but they shouldn't be worrying after the midway point of the 4th quarter.
    Game Pick: Packers

    6.) New England Patriots (London) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14.5):
      Brady will put up big numbers again and Maroney gets it going on the ground a little bit more.  Great momentum going into the bye week as Brady appears to be back to form after thrashing two straight teams, no matter if they are a combined 0-11 coming into the games.
    Game Pick: Patriots

    7.) San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans: 
    The 49ers are coming off of a bye week after an absolute beating at home against the Falcons.  They're going to come out ready to prove a point, will run the ball down the Texans' throat and play great D.
    Game Pick: 49ers

    8.) NY Jets @ Oakland Raiders (+6.5):
    Sanchez making a trip home, but tries to do too much against a bad Raiders team and turns it over a few times.  Raiders allow lots of rushing yards, but are able to run the ball very effectively in their second straight upset of a reeling Jets team. 
    Game Pick: Raiders

    9.) Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Carolina Panthers:
    Bills coming off of a big win, feeling great about themselves but without their starting QB.  Panthers will run the ball at will against the Bills, just as the Jets did last week.  However, Jake won't throw more than 1 INT and will be limited in his pass attempts as they control the game on the ground.  Close game, but Panthers will prevail.
    Game Pick: Panthers

    10.) New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins (+6.5): 
    Saints are coming off of a huge win over the G-men at home, but have to travel to Miami.  It will most likely be raining through most of (if not all) the game.  Miami will run the ball just as they did against the Colts and Jets, keeping Brees on the sideline.  Miami will control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and squeek out a wild one that comes down to the very end.
    Game Pick: Miami

    11.) Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys:
    Falcons are going to Dallas after a close win over the Bears, but Wade has his team ready finally and the Cowboys actually run the ball effectively the entire game and play a full solid game finally. Falcons walk away scratching their heads after a tough loss. 
    Game Pick: Cowboys

    12.) Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ NY Giants:
    The G-men come home after a brutal trip to New Orleans.  They focus on passing D all week and are able to shut the Cardinals down and re-establish themselves as a defensive powerhouse in the NFC.
    Game Pick: Giants

    13.) Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+7): 
    The Eagles blew the game last week by terrible playcalling (not helping out their struggling O-line).  They come in fired up for MNF and get an easy win, they put a beating on a division foe and look good doing it. 
    Game Pick: Eagles

    Biggest Margin of Victory:
    Patriots, Eagles.

    Upset Specials: Miami, Oakland
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Jake has his moments, I'll give you that, but there's only one Human Turnover . . .

    at least untile he retires . . .


    yet again.

     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    "0" love for the Jets on here. Not that I mind. I guess I see more to them than there really is...
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Jake has more than mere "moments". Jake is to the turnover what Babe Ruth was to the homerun.
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    If Jake Delhomme is Babe Ruth, then I guess Brett Favre must be Barry Bonds.
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I thought Bill Belichick was Barry Bonds.

    Sorry but you threw a meatball pitch, and I had to hit it.
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : Tex: I do not like how these players perform under Norv and Rivera. In my opinion show them and AJ the door after the year is up, anything short of a Lombardi. And will everybody in the media please quit the 'Chargers have the most talented roster' garbage, it's just not true, nor has it been as such.
    Posted by jbolted[/QUOTE]

    Maybe not the most talented anymore (but in 2006 they were), but no team gets the least bang for their buck. That is coaching. If BB, or even Josh Mac, were coaching this team, they'd be 4-1.
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Paul how do you get your number
    Posted by jbolted[/QUOTE]
    My personal formula:

    The PaulK is a statistical estimate of how many games (out of 16) a team would win, if it started its season fresh tomorrow.  Example:  At the end of week 5, Buffalo was playing at the level of a 6-10 team.  The PaulK works on the following principles.

    1.  It matters both who you beat and how many points you beat them by.  Beating the Raiders by one point doesn’t count for a lot this year.  It might actually drag your team’s power ranking down.

    2.  A team plays its best football for three quarters.  In the fourth quarter teams clutch their rosaries.  Sometimes they put their scrubs on the field.  One team runs the ball three times and punts.  The other team throws an interception that gets run back for a touchdown on 4th and 10.  If you throw a hail mary in the fourth quarter and it fails, the coach will understand because he ordered that play.  If you mess up early in the game your coach will let you know.  So, in my system the score after 3 quarters is the best predictor of future wins.  I consider the first three quarters to be signal and the fourth quarter scores to be mostly noise.

    3.  A team that dominates time of possession statistically does better.

    4.  Good ratings start to go stale as teams change.  The PaulK eventually adjusts to season-ending injuries, or sometimes newbie defenses start to get better.  My current discount is 90% of full weight one week back, 81% two weeks back, 72.9% three weeks back...

    5.  To figure out the spread, I subtract one team's number of expected victories against the other to get the difference.  Then I give 1.5 points per victory.  The home team gets 3 points.  Exception:  London.

    So far, I like the results. 

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week" : My personal formula: The PaulK is a statistical estimate of how many games (out of 16) a team would win, if it started its season fresh tomorrow.   Example:   At the end of week 5, Buffalo was playing at the level of a 6-10 team.   The PaulK works on the following principles. 1.   It matters both who you beat and how many points you beat them by.   Beating the Raiders by one point doesn’t count for a lot this year.   It might actually drag your team’s power ranking down. 2.   A team plays its best football for three quarters.   In the fourth quarter teams clutch their rosaries.   Sometimes they put their scrubs on the field.   One team runs the ball three times and punts.   The other team throws an interception that gets run back for a touchdown on 4th and 10.   If you throw a hail mary in the fourth quarter and it fails, the coach will understand because he ordered that play.   If you mess up early in the game your coach will let you know.   So, in my system the score after 3 quarters is the best predictor of future wins.   I consider the first three quarters to be signal and the fourth quarter scores to be mostly noise. 3.   A team that dominates time of possession statistically does better. 4.   Good ratings start to go stale as teams change.   The PaulK eventually adjusts to season-ending injuries, or sometimes newbie defenses start to get better.  My current discount is 90% of full weight one week back, 81% two weeks back, 72.9% three weeks back... 5.  To figure out the spread, I subtract one team's number of expected victories against the other to get the difference.  Then I give 1.5 points per victory.  The home team gets 3 points.  Exception:  London. So far, I like the results.   
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

         Some interesting ideas on a "system", Paul.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from gmbill. Show gmbill's posts

    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    No formula just gut feel from watch the games this year:

    1.) Minnesota Vikings  @ Pittsburgh Steelers:(+3) Vikings are better than last week - think Packers. Steelers are still hurt, Troy will add stops but not enough - could get re-injured early. Peterson will come to life.

    2.) San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs. I'ld call this even because the bolts have zero heart. They are all ready looking for excuses for this weeks performance. KC might get lucky

    3.) Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams (+13): Blow out, only slowed down if the Rams arrived armed with heavy caliber weapons. (even then they would most likely miss their targets)


    4.) Chicago Bears(3)  @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cardiac Cats get a tough one at home

    5.) Green Bay Packers@ Cleveland Browns (+7) Packers simply because it is Cleveland

    6.) New England Patriots(in London) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14.5): Back ups come in at half time. Brits revolt, take back the US and shoot the Jets. (Cause they suc-- and even the Brits know it)

    7.) San Francisco 49ers  @ Houston Texans: by a touch, 49ers are a better team.

    8.) NY Jets  @ Oakland Raiders Jets lose by a FG

    9.) Buffalo Bills@ Carolina Panthers: by a FG Jake has been shell shocked since the SuperBowl

    10.) New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins:  Dolphins are on a roll by a TD

    11.) Atlanta Falcons@ Dallas Cowboys: Atlanta takes the Cowboys by a TD. Cowboys will fold on D, Tony lays and egg. birds by a TD

    12.) Arizona Cardinals  @ NY Giants: Same reason they lost to NO. by TD

    13.) Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Eagles by 3 Because it is the skins
         

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         BB was lavish in his praise for the 0-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, stating the following to Ira Kaufman of the Tampa Tribune: 

         "I see the Bucs as a relatively young team that's talented,'' said Belichick, who led the Patriots to three Super Bowl wins this decade and an 11-5 mark last year with Matt Cassel replacing an injured Tom Brady under center. "I think they're getting better each week. They're coming together and executing. You just can't afford to be sloppy or not execute well because there's enough talent on the field to make you pay for it.''


         "Aqib Talib's as good a corner as we've faced this year,'' he said. "If you throw the ball around him and you're not careful, he's going to end up with it. The same thing with (Tanard) Jackson. We've got to defend a great set of backs. This is as talented a backfield as we'll see this year. The Bucs can hurt you in a lot of ways. They're explosive and they're dangerous. They're great in the kicking game. We haven't faced a quarterback like (Josh) Johnson this year that has that kind of mobility and speed. A middle linebacker like Barrett Ruud that makes every tackle. I hope we'll be able to be competitive against them.''


         I wonder if Kaufman could keep a straight face while BB was saying these things to him? LOL!! 
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Cab drivers in London had better watch themselves...Bucs CB Aqib Talib is coming to town: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/10/22/aqib-talib-charged-with-battery/
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Speaking of the Bucs, going into week 13 last season, Tampa Bay was 9-3. The Bucs had just beaten the New Orleans Saints, perhaps the NFL's best team this season, 23-20, on Nov. 30, 2008!! Since then, Tampa has lost 10 straight games.
         How fast things can change in the NFL.
     
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    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

         Speaking of the Bucs, going in week 13 last season, Tampa Bay was 9-3. The Bucs had just beaten the New Orleans Saints, perhaps the NFL's best team this season, 23-20, on Nov. 30, 2008!! Since then, Tampa has lost 10 straight games.
         How fast things can change in the NFL.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from markes8336. Show markes8336's posts

    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     Speaking of the Bucs, going in week 13 last season, Tampa Bay was 9-3. The Bucs had just beaten the New Orleans Saints, perhaps the NFL's best team this season, 23-20, on Nov. 30, 2008!! Since then, Tampa has lost 10 straight games.      How fast things can change in the NFL.
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    Same kind of turnaround the Titans have experienced.

    BTW...I like your picks overall, but as a former bettor (legal - lived in Vegas - lol) I like the Pats to cover (ordinarily I stay away from the team I follow, but not this week). Even the old NFL axiom to take the 'home team dog over 10' doesn't apply since the Bucs are only 'technically' the home team. The Brits hate pirates even worse than colonials - more Pats fans, guaranteed.
    And - I have an old school rule about picking upset specials...look for the game that screeeaams to go with the favorite, and look really hard the other way. This week, that woud be Saints/Dolphins. Fins to cover....maybe even the shocker of the week with a win.
    Toss in a gut feeling toward the Steelers (wouldn't touch that bet, even back in the day!), and we're done!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from NickC1188. Show NickC1188's posts

    Re: Week Seven NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Do you only rank the game of the week #1?  Or do you rank all the games?  Because I disagree entirely with your list if you're trying to rank which games will be the best to watch.  In order of interesting-ness

    (1) Minnesota (+4.5) at Pittsburgh
    -There will be blood.  Two physical teams duke it out in the 'burgh.  I'm interested to see how Favre handles Dick Lebeau's zone blitz and wonder if this is the week he throws wild interceptions to a recently-returned Troy Polamalu.  The Steelers' offense has more firepower than they're given credit for, and if Antoine Winfield doesn't play, then the pressure will be on Jared Allen to get to Roethlisberger while still containing an emerging Rashard Mendelhall.  I see Pittsburgh taking away Peterson and the Vikings run to force Favre to beat them, and with Polamalu back and the Steelers at home, I don't see that happening.
    -> My pick: Steelers to win, but not cover - if the sperad is 3, then push

    (2) Atlanta (+4) at Dallas
    -Atlanta is 4-1 and quietly only one game behind the flashier Saints.  Dallas is a team looking to get a win over a quality opponent to show that they're legit contenders while also looking to stay above .500.  I like Atlanta, and wonder why Wade Phillips is still coach.
    -> My pick: Atlanta to win and cover

    (3) Chicago (+1.5) at Cincinnati
    -Chicago is a team learning about itself on the fly and battling a host of injuries to stay in the early wild card race.  Cincinnatti is tied for first place in the AFC North and is looking to keep pace with the Steelers.
    -> My pick: Chicago to win and cover

    (4) New Orleans (-6.5) at Miami
    -New Orleans is coming off of a big win against the Giants and this looks like a trap game.  The Dolphins are 1 1/2 games out of first place and looking to make a move in the division; they also have the running game to control the clock and keep Brees off of the field.  A win for Miami would go a long way towards putting them back into contention.  I see this game coming down to 3 or 4 points - I think Miami combines its game plan against the Colts (40+ minutes ball control) with things they saw the Jets do to stop Brees.
    -> New Orleans to win, but not cover
    (might just be wishful thinking... I have a funny feeling this is the upset of the week)

    (5) San Francisco (+3) at Houston
    -The 49ers are looking to prove they're for real, but their conservative offense can't afford to fall behind.  Frank Gore should be back to split the load with Glen Coffee to try to control the clock.  The Texans have the firepower to put the game out of reach.  Will the Texans finally step up and become a contender?
    -> My pick: 49ers to win and cover

    (6) Arizona (+7) at New York Giants
    -Can Arizona travel east and win?  They need to win to stay in the division hunt because I don't think a wild card will come out of the (mostly pathetic) NFC West.  The Giants will be playing angry though after a loss to New Orleans.
    -> My pick: Giants, by a lot (cover)

    (8) New England (+14.5) at Tampa Bay (in London)
    -The Patriots took a step in the right direction against a winless team and look to do the same this week while staying healthy.  Tampa is looking for its first win in an unfamiliar venue.  Whichever team adjusts best will win.  I pick the Patriots to win and cover - Tampa's pass defense gave up 350 yards to Tony Romo, so I don't see Brady leaving London with less than 400 yards.  Watch for the refs to try to keep this one close for at least the first half to try to keep the game entertaining.
    -> My pick: Patriots to win and cover

    (9) New York Jets (-6.5) at Oakland
    -The Jets won 3, then lost 3.  DE Richard Seymour predicted the Raiders would make the playoffs.  This should be an interesting battle between two teams that need to start gaining momentum if they're going to be the contenders they're claiming to be.  I pick the Jets to win and cover.  The Jets pick JaMarcus Russell... at least 3 times.  The real bet in this game: which QB has a lower passer rating when the final gun sounds.  QB limbo is on!
    -> My pick: Jets to win, but not cover

    (7) Indianapolis at St. Louis (+13)
    -Indianapolis should roll over the Rams, who are in tough shape, although the Rams gave the Jaguars a fight last week.  The Colts are not the Jaguars.  I like the Colts to win and cover.  I ranked this game low because it shouldn't really be a game.
    -> My pick: Colts to win and cover

    (10) San Diego (-4.5) at Kansas City
    -San Diego is looking to bounce back after a home loss to Denver and needs this win to stay in the playoff race.  Kansas City... 'nuff said
    -> My pick: San Diego to win and cover

    (11) Green Bay (-7) at Cleveland
    -I'm not sure whether Green Bay can be a legit contender with their cobbled-together offensive line, but I am sure that Cleveland is terrible.  The Packers should win easily.
    -> My pick: Green Bay to win and cover

    (12) Philadelphia (-7) at Washington
    -This should be a clinic on how not to manage a game.  I pick Philly to bounce back because Washington is a hapless organization right now
    -> My pick: Eagles to win and cover

    (13) Buffalo (+7.5) at Carolina
    -I think this will be an uninteresting game between two sloppy teams, although Edwards is doubtful for this QB rating limbo contest; I take the Panthers because the Bills are on pace to give up over 3,000 yards rushing this year and Carolina has one of the best rushing attacks in the league
    -> Carolina to win, but not cover
     

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