WEEK SEVEN NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

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    WEEK SEVEN NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    Despite the Patriots being tied for fourth place in their division, I continue to have the Pats within striking distance of the top of the power rankings charts.  The Patriots have won three games by a total of 55 points.  They have lost three games by a total of four points, to the 5-1 Baltimore Ravens, the 4-2 Arizona Cardinals and the 4-2 Seattle Seahawks.  My forecast was for Seattle to be 0.9 points (later 0.3 points) better than New England on the expectation of team exhaustion (mental mistakes) after a 3000 mile flight and the loud Seattle stadium.  That particular 0.9 number wasn't too shabby. 

    Week 7 power ratings:

    1   sf   13.4   (last wk. 1)

    2   gb   13.3   (last wk. 5)

    3   ne   13.2   (last wk. 3)

    4   nyg   12.8   (last wk. 8)

    5   hou   11.3   (last wk. 2)

    6   atl   11.3   (last wk. 4)

    7   chi   10.6   (last wk. 7)

    8   den   10.5   (last wk. 10)

    9   sd   9.7   (last wk. 6)

    10   sea   9.4   (last wk. 12)

    11   dal   9.3   (last wk. 14)

    12   bal   9.3   (last wk. 11)

    13   no   8.7   (last wk. 13)

    14   min   8.3   (last wk. 9)

    15   nyj   8.1   (last wk. 17)

    16   cin   6.9   (last wk. 15)

    17   pit   6.9   (last wk. 16)

    18   det   6.9   (last wk. 20)

    19   car   6.7   (last wk. 21)

    20   tb   6.7   (last wk. 28)

    21   was   6.5   (last wk. 23)

    22   phi   6.3   (last wk. 18)

    23   mia   6.3   (last wk. 19)

    24   cle   5.8   (last wk. 30)

    25   buf   5.3   (last wk. 29)

    26   oak   5.2   (last wk. 32)

    27   stl   5.1   (last wk. 27)

    28   ten   5.0   (last wk. 26)

    29   az   5.0   (last wk. 24)

    30   jac   4.2   (last wk. 31)

    31   ind   4.1   (last wk. 25)

    32   kc   3.9   (last wk. 22)

    From week 7 to week 17, Patriots are overdogs all the way through and nothing is even close! 

    My point spreads, all favoring the Pats:

    Jets:  8.8 

    St. Louis in London  9.9?  Hard to tell for London.

    Buffalo  15.4

    Indianapolis  16.1

    @ Jets  5.7

    @Miami  9.1

    Houston 6.5

    San Francisco 6.5  Long flight to New England

    @ Jacksonville 8.6

    Miami  12.4 

    It's worth assuming that New England hasn't clinched home field in week 17.  Houston is the real threat, with mostly excellent games against decent competition.  Baltimore looks pretty rickety right now against Kansas City, against Dallas, against Philly, even against Cleveland. 

     

    My week 6 San Francisco over the Giants forecast took a serious dumpster dive.  Perhaps Alex Smith's sprained finger is a bit worse than we all thought.  Maybe Tom Coughlin is a better coach against big opponents than against division rivals.  My Oakland/Atlanta forecast flopped too.  I'm down to 3-2-1 for game of the week calls.  I still believe in my forecasts.  On the other hand, if I'm just blowing smoke and if you get lucky, maybe you can outcall me.  My last week's leaners were ok.

    My point spreads for week 7:

    Visitor/ Home / my points/ Vegas / difference

    sea   sf    11.4   7.0   4.4

    bal   hou    9.3   7.0   2.3

    gb   stl    -5.4   -5.5   0.1

    no   tb    -4.5   -2.5   -2.0

    dal   car    4.6   -2.0   6.6

    az   min    10.6   6.0   4.6

    ten   buf    1.8   3.0   -1.2

    was   nyg    6.7   5.5   1.2

    cle   ind    0.9   2.5   -1.6

    jac   oak    3.9   4.0   -0.1

    nyj   ne    8.8   10.5   -1.7

    pit   cin    0.3   -1.5   1.8

    det   chi    12.4   6.0   6.4

     

    For week 7's game of the week I have Carolina coming off a bye week, playing Dallas well.  I liked the bye week effect last year.  Carolina as a two point home underdog is a serious trap game for Dallas, a wannabe contender interested in beating the Giants in week 8, and who just played Baltimore last week. 

    dal   car    4.6   -2.0   6.6

    Other picks:

    Chicago coming off a bye week to crush dome team Detroit sticks out.  There's some chance of rain (and wind) for Monday night. 

    det   chi    12.4   6.0   6.4

     

    Leaners:  Arizona heading up to Minnesota is mostly the power rating numbers talking.  Why couldn't Arizona beat Buffalo?  Will this carry over to week 7?

    San Fran is still a powerhouse and they want to clobber upstart Seattle for the NFC West division crown if possible.  Perhaps the Giants game was a trap game for them.

    #######

    New England to win but the points are too rich.  Sorry.  With one minute to go the Jets are still down two scores.  The Sanchize gets within 8, ticking off some New England fans, but then the Jets can't recover their onside kick.  Brady picks on Kyle Mini-Me Wilson.  Chandler Jones is easily the defensive rookie of the year.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    Re: WEEK SEVEN NFL PICKS and

    Jints fan I have to admit that I didn't see them beating the Niners, they didn't just beat them they crushed them. The Giants are going to be one tough team again come playoffs. Congrats on the win.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: WEEK SEVEN NFL PICKS and

    Giants are quietly putting averaging alot of points per game

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: WEEK SEVEN NFL PICKS and

    I have to look at all six of the Giants' games to evaluate them. 

    Dallas was a disaster, with the Giants 14 points behind with under 6 minutes to play in the game.  Dallas isn't out there beating the world.

    Tampa Bay was a (successful) struggle against kind of a turkey team.

    Their Carolina showing was excellent.

    Their Philly showing was a slight loss. 

    The Cleveland game was at least comfortable, but lots of teams have been beating Cleveland.

    Then this uncharacteristic San Francisco game shows up.  One game could be all about the Giants finally getting their act together or it could be all about the 49ers falling apart.  Occasionally one game is all about outside mobsters fixing that particular game to cause a $200 million swing in gambling payouts.  A microscopic fraction of $200 million, perhaps forgiveness of $100k in gambling debts, will buy off a player or a referee.

    I can't base my forecasts on just one outlier game-- I need to average it in with the other five games.  The Giants were playing like the #8 team in the NFL last week.  This week they're #4 and within striking distance of #1.  I always overweight the latest game because it can signal either a bad injury that might carry over to next week, or an important player finally getting healthy, which also carries over.  Credit where credit is due, but not overblown credit. 

     

     

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan94. Show redsoxfan94's posts

    Re: WEEK SEVEN NFL PICKS and

    new england at three is a stretch right now....i do think they will beat the jets handily though....well i hope they do

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan94. Show redsoxfan94's posts

    Re: WEEK SEVEN NFL PICKS and

    In response to JintsFan's comment:

    In response to redsoxfan94's comment:

    new england at three is a stretch right now....i do think they will beat the jets handily though....well i hope they do




    actually so do i as rex is a ****




    haha yes we definitely agree on that

     
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