Week Six Assessment Time

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Week Six Assessment Time

    I've always said you really can't judge a team until week six or so.  Last week, when someone started a thread comparing the 2011 Pats team to the 2007 team, I responded by asking that we not all get carried away in week five and quoted Parcell's words: "You are what you are."  I took some flack for that, as several posters tried to tell me we were really better than our record indicated.  "Closer to 5-0," some said.

    Well, Parcells was right.  You are what you are and in this case it is 3-3--which is not close to 5-0 and certainly not close to 6-0.

    I remain very optimistic about this team.  I also look around the league and have trouble identifying a team I'm convinced is elite, which means this season is going to be a dogfight and anyone can end up on top.  We're 3-3, but so is every other team in the AFC East.  They are what they are too.  It's not clear yet which team is going to be best.  But I think we've got a good chance of coming out on top. 

    As far as the week six assessment goes, here are my thoughts:

    Offense.  The increased emphasis on the run has paid off against defenses that focus on the pass, using smaller, quicker defenders.  Against teams that can keep a big front seven in the game (while still controlling our pass offense), the run isn't a big help (it may even reducing our scoring ability as it did with Arizona).  Our passing game resembles last year's, except Lloyd (hope he's not hurt too badly) adds a much better perimeter threat.  The TEs are less productive, in part because we are using them more as run and pass blockers, though they remain effective in the passing game. Fells is a nice addition to that squad. Overall, this remains a top 5 offense, and one we should be able to win with. 

    Defense. Great against the run (much better than last year), as long as we can keep our base front seven in the game and focused forward.  If we try to focus our LBs on pass defense (or go nickel), the run may open up for our opponents.  The pass rush is improved, I think, though still not stellar.  Jones is a great addition and Nink has shown real improvement over the past few games.  Spikes has also been effective blitzing up the middle when they've done that.  Overall, there is improvement.  Pass coverage, though, remains a glaring problem. Our LBs aren't the best in pass coverage, our safeties are hopeless, and our corners inconsistent (McCourty) or just weak (everyone else).  Because we are prone to giving up so many big pass plays, we need to get turnovers.  We are good at that, but still, the big pass plays are very hard to overcome. 

    Special Teams. As usual, very good kick and punt coverage, very weak kick and punt return game.  Some inconsistency on field goals.  Overall, not a real strength, though the coverage units do help our defense by limiting starting field position.  It's just that the big pass plays the defense gives up tend to squander that advantage. 

    Overall.  A team that can't reliably win a defensive struggle.  As with last year, the offense has to be great every game because if they falter at all, we can't expect the defense to hold a lead in a tight game.  

    Projection.  Still think we'll win the division. Less confident we can get a first round bye or secure homefield advantage for more than one game.  If we don't win the division, making the playoffs may be difficult since with three losses already, we may not end up with a record good enough to win a wildcard.  Our saving grace may be that every other AFC team is struggling too.  There's no clear class of the league.  Unfortunately, the loss to Baltimore could come back to bite us. 

     

     

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    They've got a defense that can't let a 23 point performance stick. 

    They'll go to the playoffs. They'll likely go deep. 

     

    Unless the offense runs the table scoring 30++ they won't win it all. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    They've got a defense that can't let a 23 point performance stick. 

    They'll go to the playoffs. They'll likely go deep. 

     

    Unless the offense runs the table scoring 30++ they won't win it all. 



    Tend to agree. It's one reason I wonder about all the calls to run more. Can you hope to score 30 points a game with regularity as a running team? Sure you can score that many points if the other team is playing pass (Bills, Broncos), but can you do it against defenses like Arizona's or Seattle's? That's the thing people aren't getting when they post "stats" that suggest we win when we run and lose when we pass.  There's also a defense on the field and what they're doing makes a difference in what we can do with success.  It's easy to run against a nickel or dime formation with a lot of small defensive backs. It's not so easy to run against big linemen and linebackers.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    They've got a defense that can't let a 23 point performance stick. 

    They'll go to the playoffs. They'll likely go deep. 

     

    Unless the offense runs the table scoring 30++ they won't win it all. 



    Tend to agree. It's one reason I wonder about all the calls to run more. Can you hope to score 30 points a game with regularity as a running team? Sure you can score that many points if the other team is playing pass (Bills, Broncos), but can you do it against defenses like Arizona's or Seattle's? That's the thing people aren't getting when they post "stats" that suggest we win when we run and lose when we pass.  There's also a defense on the field and what they're doing makes a difference in what we can do with success.  It's easy to run against a nickel or dime formation with a lot of small defensive backs. It's not so easy to run against big linemen and linebackers.



    but the question is ......when it is 4th QT and you are up 13 with 9-10mins, can you try to run alot more and use more clock? I keep seeing the Pats fail there. We stayed with the spread formation pass game at a juncture in the game where even failed runs would have ran the clock faster.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from CablesWyndBairn. Show CablesWyndBairn's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    I had hopes for the run game, but I understand that the Pats are still a gameplan team.  I am not sure they would've had  a lot of success running the ball yesterday if they kept at it, and it's not like they weren't moving the ball successfuly through the air.   But when they're up (as they were yesterday) I wish they would do everything they can to keep the clock moving.  Brady had a number of balls skip off the ground or go sailing (hopefully due to the rain).  Matched against a tough run D the Pats looked to Brady to carry them and he killed them with the INTs and the intentional grounding penalty.  The penalty was inexcusable and ultimately lost them the game. 

    Despite Brady's mistakes -- and I hate to sound like a broken record since I know we've all talked about the DBs --  until they can get a safety that keeps the play in front of him or a CB who learns to play the ball in the air they will be prone to giving up obscene yardage through the air.  That was probably the worst CB/Safety play we've seen in some time.  I said last week that the defensive backfield is Jeckyl and Hyde, and they are proving to be more Hyde with performances like that.  Arrington and Chung in particular looked terrible. 


    What do they do?  Keep at it with personnel they have?  Shift McCourty to safety and give more time at CB to Dennard and Dowling?  Look at the FA list to see if there is a vet to help them?  I don't know what they can do, but they need to shake up the D backs to be sure. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    They've got a defense that can't let a 23 point performance stick. 

    They'll go to the playoffs. They'll likely go deep. 

     

    Unless the offense runs the table scoring 30++ they won't win it all. 




    Exactly. And the offense isn't likely to run that table with a running game that only works when the going is easy and Brady is forced to throw into the teeth of a D that is sitting on the pass. His receivers will be covered like a glove, he will be throwing low to the tight coverage to try to avoid INTs and the locals will complain that he is off target.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from glenr. Show glenr's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    And the excuses for a 16% red zone efficiency just keep on coming

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from CablesWyndBairn. Show CablesWyndBairn's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    Yesterday was a day where the offense seemed to concede that the run wasn't going to work.  They gave it a try, losing Bolden didn't help.  Granted, Seattle knew what was coming and the throwing conditions were tough, but the team choosing to pass with 6 seconds and Brady taking that IG penalty ultimately lost the game for them.  The INTs I'll chalk up to good plays by the Seattle D and poor conditions, but the penalty shouldn't have happened.  They win that game if they kick a FG before the half.  Take the points.   

    Brady dropping back 60 times isn't what this offense needs.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    On the one hand, they are 4 points from being undefeated. On the other hand, they are at .500. It's hard to be tough on a team that is so close to being undedeated but this team shouldn't be at 500. Brady was good for 95% of the game, but that 5% cost them the game, as did the really bad secondary.

    Funny, but the secondary is the same old story as it;s been for the past few years; can't get a stop when they needed to.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from nyjoseph. Show nyjoseph's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

     



    Good summary.   I think it's still a playoff team, but we need a first-round bye.  There has been too much inconsistency with this young team to think they will run the table if they need to win 4. 

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In response to CablesWyndBairn's comment:

    Yesterday was a day where the offense seemed to concede that the run wasn't going to work.  They gave it a try, losing Bolden didn't help.  Granted, Seattle knew what was coming and the throwing conditions were tough, but the team choosing to pass with 6 seconds and Brady taking that IG penalty ultimately lost the game for them.  The INTs I'll chalk up to good plays by the Seattle D and poor conditions, but the penalty shouldn't have happened.  They win that game if they kick a FG before the half.  Take the points.   

    Brady dropping back 60 times isn't what this offense needs.




    Yeah, they conceded the running stank, and didn't do much of it.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In response to PhatRex's comment:

    Assess this.  The greatest team in NFL with the greatest coach/GM that has drafted better than any other GM/team is in last place.




    How you figure they are in last place?

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    How you figure they are in last place?


    They're all tied for last place and 1st place.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    If the offense is a Ferrari then the defense is a Yugo. Sunday the Ferrari broke down and the Yugo got a flat tire but many people can't understand why the Yugo doesn't perform like a Sherman Tank.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In response to Bunker Spreckels' comment:

    In response to glenr's comment:

    And the excuses for a 16% red zone efficiency just keep on coming




    It's unreal.  My favorite part of Prolate's post is when he says the offense has to be "great". How about just turn it over and move the sticks? Is that really a lot to ask? That's how Brady led us to the 3 SBs.  What a novel concept.  Actually it's the correct concept!

    This is why I keep referencing his postseason stats since 2007. That's when we went into this obsession in the shotgun. Actually, it started in 2006, but they got the upgraded personnel to match that philosophy. Great. A new wrinkle, teams couldn't handle it in 2007, but they adjusted at the end of the year. That was 2007.

    This is 2012.

    I gave them a pass in 2009 and then saw MOss dealt in 2010 which symbolized and acknowledged the change being made, which was fantastic. The lone loss after Week 4 came in Cleveland, to guess again, another team looking to play  SB in October, but NE's ran the table right into January where they did what? Threw 40 times, subbed Woodhead and BJGE in and out and rosty looked like me in Chemistry junior year in high school.  Confused.

    We shouldn't be talking about the root cause as to why our offense   defense can't do anything over long periods of these games because they choose to rely ONLY on one offensive  defensive style, almost exclusively because we should be WELL past this at this point. 

    No one is demanding our offense to be "great". We just lost a SB with a very medicore at best offensive output in another SB and the D went to the hilt playing pretty well to hold NY down to 13 points for the entire game.  Again, the D is actually outplaying the offense during MORE of these games. It's absolutely true.  The D played great from the 2nd qtr, until 5 minutes to go which was over more of the game than what ther offense did. Again, 5 tries at the 5 yard line to either score or kick a FG? Really guys?   This is what you're defending. We have two of the priciest TEs in the league, a pricy QB and LG named Logie Mankins known as a roadgrader but he drops back to pass protect for 58 times? Really? 

    A quick strike or a couple of pretty throws from Brady doesn't make up an offense over 4 qtrs.   lmao

    I feel I like am talking to a bunch of 10 year old kids who are enamored with aerial plays and dramatic, athletic plays but don't get the other elements and how they tie together. Wake up.

    I just don't get how you can lower your expectation level for a loaded offense  defenselike this and then be uber-critical, almost to the point of lying, about how NE's D  Ocompares to others in this league.

    Here is an undeniable fact:

    If our offense defense doesn't commit such headscratching gaffes in the SB or yesterday, we are defending SB champs and 5-1 or worst case, 4-2 right now.

     

    The D is compared to the rest of the league as bottom 5 and rightfully so, they earned every point and yard they gacked up. You are as bad as them,  fake and inneffecient.

    Neither of you belong in the NFL, not even as fans.  Go watch tennis, it suits you. Maybe you and BGJE can volley for love.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from rusgriswold. Show rusgriswold's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In games like yesterday, we throw every intelligent aspect of what a normal Pats offense would do and act like the NY Jets or Oakland Raiders.  They should have let me call the plays.

    Our offense is HORRENDOUS with clock management in the shotgun spread and when I am not the head coach. There are like 5 negatives with the shotgun spread base and 5 positives for our offense AND defense, without that as the base. So, we choose not to put me in as QB? How does this make sense after dozens of examples of failures for so many seasons when the Pats don't start me at QB?

    It's never worked!  When has this team beaten a good or great D when I am not the starting QB? Answer: NEVER

    LMAO.  Tom Brady EXPOSED.

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    Nice post/thread prolate. It's nice to read threads from reasonable fans that don't have an agenda (that looks worse and worse by the second) that can't be honest and give a good assessment.

    Spot on. Personally I've just grown tired of watching this defense. Four years of this has worn me out - I just feel like it's been a waste of Brady's career and my rooting interest as a fan. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Week Six Assessment Time

    In response to mthurl's comment:

    Nice post/thread prolate. It's nice to read threads from reasonable fans that don't have an agenda (that looks worse and worse by the second) that can't be honest and give a good assessment.

    Spot on. Personally I've just grown tired of watching this defense. Four years of this has worn me out - I just feel like it's been a waste of Brady's career and my rooting interest as a fan. 



    I agree Pro is a Pro, always well thoughtout logical post. ZBello too.

    I've also had enough of this D.  Last year I had a sick feeling every time they took the field.  I no longer have that.  It's now, oh well, here comes another loss in the last minutes of the 4th.  What else is new?  I don't like feeling either., disgust or apathy, which is worse?

     
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