Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"
posted at 10/11/2011 5:37 PM EDT
Did you ever wonder how I could come up with statistically valid numeric rankings after only the first week of games? Easy, I was using old 2010 rankings and adding the first week’s results to them.
Gradually the 2011 results gained traction. Week 5, now, is the week that I will finally cut the residual ties to 2010 results. Consequently, a number of teams are jumping up and down the rankings this week, but the cutoff has to be done. Because of the cutoff, lots of changes are revealed here. I wouldn’t want to hide the differences between 2010 and 2011 because they are pronounced and often as not they say something about the characters of certain teams.
Ratings are out of 16 victories if the season started fresh tomorrow.
My own statistical power ratings – honestly they are generally on the nose compared to anything I’ve seen on the web anywhere:
1 gb 13.7 (last wk. 2) They could have looked a little better vs. Atlanta, but they more or less cruised at an away game.
2 bal 13.0 (last wk. 3) At this hour, I have Baltimore and New England just about tied for second place in the NFL. Both have handled the Jets pretty smoothly. Right now, both are 13-3 teams. Baltimore is ahead by 2/100ths of one victory.
3 ne 13.0 (last wk. 1) New England’s rep in the last half of last year was golden. Losing that afterglow drags New England down towards earth. Still, the 2011 Pats have earned a #2 ranking this year by comfortably beating good teams. I like New England’s chances for having its many rookies mature a bit by December, but this is based on September results up to today. Too many newbie mistakes, for now.
4 det 12.0 (last wk. 4) Around here they had already shed their loser image in 2010, not to mention the first 4 weeks. Remember that preseason game against the Patriots?
5 buf 10.9 (last wk. 13) For real! They aren’t the Jets. Buffalo had a horrid rep last year. I bet they’re glad to cut off that 2010 tail of theirs. In 2011, good against KC and generally tough in defeat.
6 sf 10.8 (last wk. 20) Bad rep last year. Somehow they demolished a pretty good team in a laugher this week. That counts for something.
7 oak 10.6 (last wk. 16) This one’s a shock. However, they did beat up on both the Jets at home and Houston on the road. Give it up for good 2011 performances.
8 no 10.4 (last wk. 5)
9 nyj 9.8 (last wk. 10) About on target from 2010. My stats care nothing for a team’s actual win-lose record, which is a horrid predictor of future performance. All that I compare are margins of victory, avoiding various tickytack last minute scores.
10 dal 9.7 (last wk. 15)
11 hou 9.7 (last wk. 6)
12 pit 9.5 (last wk. 7) Pittsburgh drops this week because they have now lost last year’s glitter. New England got a great first place draw of Pitt and Indy!
13 chi 9.0 (last wk. 9)
14 cin 8.8 (last wk. 21) Note: I had to make a judgment call on that silly touchdown with zero seconds left. In the end I followed my preset rules and gave Cincy credit for the game’s final fumble/touchdown. The score was in doubt on the final play, so count the TD. The uptick won’t matter much someday.
15 sd 8.3 (last wk. 12)
16 phi 8.0 (last wk. 18) They were mediocre last week, mediocre this week too.
17 ten 7.9 (last wk. 8) Pittsburgh just took the air out of Tennessee this week. Tennessee is a good reason why I hang onto 2010 statistics through 4 games in 2011. Bad teams sometimes have a fluke good game, and the statistics need a bit of stability. In the same way, Detroit had great grades late in 2010 and those carried over nicely.
18 was 7.8 (last wk. 19)
19 min 7.3 (last wk. 22)
20 atl 7.2 (last wk. 17) This team just lost its 2010 afterglow. They did about as expected against Green Bay.
21 den 6.9 (last wk. 25)
22 sea 6.5 (last wk. 31) Seattle actually grew some whiskers this week. Pretty good!
23 car 6.3 (last wk. 30) Carolina grew some whiskers too!
24 nyg 6.1 (last wk. 11) All of the teams that the Jints have so far played were pretty much duds. If Seattle can beat the Giants badly, what’s left?
25 tb 5.2 (last wk. 14) Now it’s ok in the NFL to just give up on a game and suck your thumb? I stopped counting this last massacre at 31 points down. Even so, I need evidence that someone is home to raise The Bucs out of the cellar. No playoffs, no way.
26 az 5.1 (last wk. 27)
27 kc 4.8 (last wk. 26) A statistical loss of afterglow weighs a bit more heavily than beating Indy this week.
28 mia 4.7 (last wk. 24)
29 jac 4.4 (last wk. 29)
30 cle 3.6 (last wk. 28)
31 stl 2.9 (last wk. 32)
32 ind 2.2 (last wk. 23) Big loss of 2010 afterglow. TexasPat was right in last week’s rankings. In 2011 this Peyton-free team survives only on photosynthesis, and looks up to higher life forms such as the Venus Fly Trap.
Visitor/home/my own statistical points/ Texas Pat’s points above (from Vegas)/ difference
stl gb 19.3 15 4.3
buf nyg -4.1 3 -7.1
ind cin 12.9 7 5.9
car atl 4.3 4 0.3
sf det 4.8 5.5 -0.7
phi was 2.6 1 1.6
jac pit 10.7 12.5 -1.8
cle oak 13.5 5.5 8.0
hou bal 8.0 7 1.0
no tb -4.8 -4.5 -0.3
dal ne 8.0 7 1.0
min chi 5.6 3 2.6
mia nyj 10.6 7.5 3.1
Last week’s Game of the Week:
For this game of the week my stats will bounce-house on top of Philly’s overinflated self. Buffalo to cover and win too.
phi buf 4.1 -3 7.1
Ayuh! Buffalo won by 7 points. Candy from a baby.
Game of this week:
Oakland to cruise, at home, over Cleveland.
cle oak 13.5 5.5 8.0
Cincinnati to cruise, at home, over indy.
ind cin 12.9 7 5.9
- - -
After some thought, I don’t like to oppose anyone getting 15 points already. Not quite worth the randomness.
stl gb 19.3 15 4.3
New England only gets a miniscule favorable lean versus the spread. Good luck with that.