WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

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    WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

         Though the Pats weren't impressive, they came away with a win they had to have last week, against the hated Jets. Isn't it amazing how one loss (that miserable Buffalo game) can be so potentially damaging to a teams' SB/playoff hopes? But...onward into week six we go, with the "Game of the Week" being:

    1.) (2-2) Dallas Cowboys (+7) @ (4-1) New England Patriots: It's a testament to how tough the Patriots' schedule is, that they've drawn the "Game of the Week" designation for four weeks in a row. The Cowboys should be undefeated. They gave away games to the Jets and the Lions. They actually led undefeated Detroit, 27-3, before Tony Romo's back to back pick sixes midway in the 3rd quarter allowed the Lions to get back in the game. Dallas will be an angry football team, coming off a bye week...while the Pats are coming off a tough, emotional win against their chief divisional rival. Can you say "trap game"? This will be a tough one for the good guys to get:
    PICK: Cowboys;

    2.) (0-4) St. Louis Rams (+15) @ (5-0) Green Bay Packers: Currently, the Packers are head and shoulders the best team in the NFL. The Rams are in the "Suck for Luck" Sweepstakes:
    PICK: Packers; 

    3.) (1-4) Jacksonville Jaguars (+12.5) @ (3-2) Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers sent a message to the rest of the AFC by destroying the Tennessee Titans last week. Though I don't see the Jaguars winning this one, I think they can hang in this one enough to cover the spread:
    PICK: Jaguars;

    4.) (1-4) Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ (3-1) Washington Redskins: The Eagles have made more turnovers this season than Betty Crocker...and their defense stops no one. This could be another physically trying afternoon for Michael Vick:
    PICK: Redskins;

    5.) (4-1) San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) @ (5-0) Detroit Lions: The 49ers destroyed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The Lions have been bowling over all opposition. This game challenged for the "Game of the Week". But, since the 49ers lone loss was to the Cowboys in San Francisco, in OT...and, as mentioned above, the 'Boys should have beaten the Lions in Dallas....I rate the Cowboys as a very formidable team:
    PICK: Lions;

    6.) (1-4) Carolina Panthers (+4) @ (2-3) Atlanta Falcons: Though the "Dream Team" in Philadelphia has been the most disappointing team in the NFL, the Falcons are a close second. Atlanta, the team that finished with the best record in the NFC last season, is not scoring points, and not stopping anybody. Though Carolina has only one win in five tries, they've been competitive every week:
    PICK: Panthers;

    7.) (0-5) Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ (3-2) Cincinnati Bengals: The Colts quest to "Suck for Luck" continues:
    PICK: Bengals;

    8.) (4-1) Buffalo Bills (+3) @ (3-2) NY Giants: I can't believe how bad the Giants played last week. Losing to a team like the Seahawks takes some doing. Tom Coughlin likely still has his team doing push-ups and running "gassers" as a consequence of last weeks' debacle. Coughlin may beat his boys with a sledge-hammer, Triple H style, if they drop this one. As for the Bills, if they are truly contenders, this is the type of opponent that they should beat: 
    PICK: Bills;

    9.) (3-2) Houston Texans (+7) @ (3-1) Baltimore Ravens: The Texans aren't the same team without star WR, Andre Johnson. In addition, the Texans lost pass-rusher Mario Williams for the season last week. The Buzzards, coming off their bye week, should be rested, and ready:
    PICK: Ravens;

    10.) (2-2) Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ (3-2) Oakland Raiders: 
    The Raiders will continue their testimonial to Al Davis by stomping the hapless Browns:
    PICK: Raiders;

    11.) (4-1) New Orleans Saints @ (3-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.5): 
    The Bucs were humiliated by the 49ers last week. Meanwhile, the Saints and Drew Brees keep piling up the offensive stats, and points:
    PICK: Saints;

    12.) (1-4) Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ (2-3) Chicago Bears: 
    The only thing of interest in this game will be the RB battle between Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte. The Vikings badly need a loss if they're to remain relevant in the "Suck for Luck" Sweepstakes:
    PICK: Bears; 

    13.) (0-4) Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ (2-3) NY Jets: 
    If Miami had a running game, I'd be tempted to take them, plus the points. If the Jets had an offense, I wouldn't even consider taking Miami. One cancels out the other:
    PICK: Dolphins.

         BEST BETS: Raiders, Redskins, Packers.
       
         Your picks and opinions are welcome...especially on the Cowboys v Pats.

     
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from kevin13130. Show kevin13130's posts

    Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    I pick Patriots over Cowboys. Two reasons: 1) We're at home, 2) Tony Romo.

    I think Steelers will beat the Jaguars, but I see it being a tough game. In the end, Blaine Gabbert can't handle the Steelers underperforming (but decent) defense.

    The rest of it looks pretty good to me.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ccnsd. Show ccnsd's posts

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     The Cowboys have Ware and I worry about that but otherwise I can't see them stopping the Pats offense. In my opinion, no one in the NFL has a good as offense as the Pats (the Pats run better than the Packers and the Saints) and no one can stop this current offense on their first time seeing it. The Cowboys are the NFC Chargers, loads of talent but always underachieving and I expect a similar game as we saw a few weeks ago. I expect the final score will be close but the Pats will be in control for most of it.
     Obviously I worry about the Cowboys weapons on offense but they no longer seem to be able to run the ball which will greatly help the Pats defense. The Cowboys have become one dimensional and their QB is not accurate enough to be one dimensional and succesful long term. The Packers are one dimensional but Rodgers is playing so good it does not matter.  
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from kevin13130. Show kevin13130's posts

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    I'm not too worried about DeMarcus Ware. We'll gameplan and take him out of the game. We've done it to Dwight Freeney countless times. He might get his one sack and two QB pressures, but in the end, he can't stop our offense himself.

    The matchup against our defense is a bit of a concern though. But in the end, I can't believe that Tony Romo will outgun Tom Brady. We win 34-27.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimmytantric. Show jimmytantric's posts

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    Cowboys will be competitive, but I don't see how the Boys D will corral,(LOL),Brady and the Pats offense. The trend continues of 30+ points in 14 consecutive games!
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from auchhhhhhhhhhh. Show auchhhhhhhhhhh's posts

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    If Vollmer is back and Solder plays as the 3rd TE, i can see the pats running the ball decent enough vs Dallas n.1 D vs the Run !

    we´will also need edelman and woodhead back... kick and punts returns need to help us.

    On Defense we need to get healthier !!!  Ras- I, Bodden, DMC and Chung, this is their big test !!!!   Miles, Dez and dalla´s TE are a handfull !!!! and can score at will !!!

    i see this one being a very close game... 34 - 28 pats.

    WE ARE AT HOME !

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from sam0377. Show sam0377's posts

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    Cowboys secondary sucks, Brady will have field day with little bit time in pocket.
     
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    The Pats schedule is tough but they are the "game of the week" 4 times in a row ONLY because you are making the pick.  Game of the week this week is SF vs Lions.  Two young surprising teams on the rise.  Really looking forward to watching that.  Cowboys are not playing well enough to be a game of the week right now.
     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

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    In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]I pick Patriots over Cowboys. Two reasons: 1) We're at home, 2) Tony Romo. I think Steelers will beat the Jaguars, but I see it being a tough game. In the end, Blaine Gabbert can't handle the Steelers underperforming (but decent) defense. The rest of it looks pretty good to me.
    Posted by kevin13130[/QUOTE]

         I am picking against the spread. So...by taking the Jaguars over the Steelers, I'm taking them, plus 12.5 points. In other words, I'm picking them either to win outright, or to lose by less than 13 points. 
     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Tex I am not sure, but hasn't the Panthers covered every week so far?

    RESPONSE:  Just about. I believe that they barely missed covering against Green Bay.  

    I think the Eagles game is a do or die, they need it very bad.
     
    RESPONSE: Not that I think that the Redskins are world-beaters, but Philly has all kinds of problems on their offensive and defensive lines. I actually feel bad for Michael Vick...he's getting killed every week. Their defensive line was slightly above average to start with. But injuries to pass-rush specialist Trent Cole, DE Juqua Parker and Darryl Tapp, and losing DT Antonio Dixon for the season have really taken their toll: http://articles.philly.com/2011-10-07/sports/30253615_1_juqua-parker-first-year-defensive-coordinator-eagles-defense   

    Bills are for real.

    RESPONSE: I'm still not convinced. They crushed a Chiefs' team that was in disarray on opening day, were lucky to make up 21 point deficits to beat the Raiders and the Pats at home, lost to the Bengals, and beat an Eagles team that's a mess. The Giants on the road will be a good test for them.

    I remember reading a couple of years ago that the winning team on Monday night losses about 70% of the time the next week.
     
    RESPONSE: Really? I don't think it will affect the Lions. Their DL is the main reason for their success. Who would have though that San Francisco at Detroit would be a marquee game?
    Posted by bobbysu[/QUOTE]

         Thanks for your input, Bobby.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from darwk. Show darwk's posts

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    PATS win against the Cowboys. For all the reasons other posters have stated. Brady beats Romo. PATS are home on the range... and looking for the high note (as in scoring points) before the bye.
     
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    pats have a BYE after this week. I'm sure BB has told them he would sweeten the time off for and all out effort against Dallas.. 

    I know we are all still down on the Pats D. And this week will be a real measuring stick for it. I think they do well. After some sloppy play in the first half I was very encouraged by the way the TEAM finished the game against the jets. The D seemed to be playing cohesive and the O slammed the door in the Jets faces by running the ball down their throat. This is in contrast to last year... Needs work??? YES!!! Getting BETTER??? YES!!!
     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]If Vollmer is back and Solder plays as the 3rd TE, i can see the pats running the ball decent enough vs Dallas n.1 D vs the Run ! we´will also need edelman and woodhead back... kick and punts returns need to help us. On Defense we need to get healthier !!!  Ras- I, Bodden, DMC and Chung, this is their big test !!!!   Miles, Dez and dalla´s TE are a handfull !!!! and can score at will !!! i see this one being a very close game... 34 - 28 pats. WE ARE AT HOME !
    Posted by auchhhhhhhhhhh[/QUOTE]

         Agreed that this will be a tough one. the Patriots have had problems covering tall, physical WRs all season. The 'Boys have 6'2", 218 pound Dez Bryant, 6'2", 215 pound Miles Austin, and 6'6", 265 pound TE Jason Whitten to boot.  
     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Cowboys will be competitive, but I don't see how the Boys D will corral,(LOL),Brady and the Pats offense. The trend continues of 30+ points in 14 consecutive games!
    Posted by jimmytantric[/QUOTE]

         Now that Tom Brady has just overcome Rex Ryan's defense...next up, he faces his brother Rob, who is the DC for the Cowboys. Rob Ryan was the architect of the Cleveland Browns' defensive game-plan, in Clevelands' 34-14 upset win over the Patriots last year. That game marked the last regular season game in which the Patriots' offense had been held below 30 points: http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/7087869/dallas-cowboys-pass-rush-faces-big-challenge-tom-brady
     
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    Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]     Though the Pats weren't impressive, they came away with a win they had to have last week, against the hated Jets. Isn't it amazing how one loss (that miserable Buffalo game) can be so potentially damaging to a teams' SB/playoff hopes? But...onward into week six we go, with the "Game of the Week" being: 1.) (2-2) Dallas Cowboys (+7) @ (4-1) New England Patriots: It's a testament to how tough the Patriots' schedule is, that they've drawn the "Game of the Week" designation for four weeks in a row. The Cowboys should be undefeated. They gave away games to the Jets and the Lions. They actually led undefeated Detroit, 27-3, before Tony Romo's back to back pick sixes midway in the 3rd quarter allowed the Lions to get back in the game. Dallas will be an angry football team, coming off a bye week...while the Pats are coming off a tough, emotional win against their chief divisional rival. Can you say "trap game"? This will be a tough one for the good guys to get: PICK: Cowboys; 2.) (0-4) St. Louis Rams (+15) @ (5-0) Green Bay Packers: Currently, the Packers are head and shoulders the best team in the NFL. The Rams are in the "Suck for Luck" Sweepstakes: PICK: Packers;  3.) (1-4) Jacksonville Jaguars (+12.5) @ (3-2) Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers sent a message to the rest of the AFC by destroying the Tennessee Titans last week. Though I don't see the Jaguars winning this one, I think they can hang in this one enough to cover the spread: PICK: Jaguars; 4.) (1-4) Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ (3-1) Washington Redskins: The Eagles have made more turnovers this season than Betty Crocker...and their defense stops no one. This could be another physically trying afternoon for Michael Vick: PICK: Redskins; 5.) (4-1) San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) @ (5-0) Detroit Lions: The 49ers destroyed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The Lions have been bowling over all opposition. This game challenged for the "Game of the Week". But, since the 49ers lone loss was to the Cowboys in San Francisco, in OT...and, as mentioned above, the 'Boys should have beaten the Lions in Dallas....I rate the Cowboys as a very formidable team: PICK: Lions; 6.) (1-4) Carolina Panthers (+4) @ (2-3) Atlanta Falcons: Though the "Dream Team" in Philadelphia has been the most disappointing team in the NFL, the Falcons are a close second. Atlanta, the team that finished with the best record in the NFC last season, is not scoring points, and not stopping anybody. Though Carolina has only one win in five tries, they've been competitive every week: PICK: Panthers; 7.) (0-5) Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ (3-2) Cincinnati Bengals: The Colts quest to "Suck for Luck" continues: PICK: Bengals; 8.) (4-1) Buffalo Bills (+3) @ (3-2) NY Giants: I can't believe how bad the Giants played last week. Losing to a team like the Seahawks takes some doing. Tom Coughlin likely still has his team doing push-ups and running "gassers" as a consequence of last weeks' debacle. Coughlin may beat his boys with a sledge-hammer, Triple H style, if they drop this one. As for the Bills, if they are truly contenders, this is the type of opponent that they should beat:  PICK: Bills; 9.) (3-2) Houston Texans (+7) @ (3-1) Baltimore Ravens: The Texans aren't the same team without star WR, Andre Johnson. In addition, the Texans lost pass-rusher Mario Williams for the season last week. The Buzzards, coming off their bye week, should be rested, and ready: PICK: Ravens; 10.) (2-2) Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ (3-2) Oakland Raiders:  The Raiders will continue their testimonial to Al Davis by stomping the hapless Browns: PICK: Raiders; 11.) (4-1) New Orleans Saints @ (3-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.5):  The Bucs were humiliated by the 49ers last week. Meanwhile, the Saints and Drew Brees keep piling up the offensive stats, and points: PICK: Saints; 12.) (1-4) Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ (2-3) Chicago Bears:  The only thing of interest in this game will be the RB battle between Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte. The Vikings badly need a loss if they're to remain relevant in the "Suck for Luck" Sweepstakes: PICK: Bears;  13.) (0-4) Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ (2-3) NY Jets:  If Miami had a running game, I'd be tempted to take them, plus the points. If the Jets had an offense, I wouldn't even consider taking Miami. One cancels out the other: PICK: Dolphins.      BEST BETS: Raiders, Redskins, Packers.          Your picks and opinions are welcome...especially on the Cowboys v Pats.  
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    I can see why your handle starts with Tex !!  I have three reasons why the Pats will win; (1) Tom Brady; (2) Tony Rome; (3) Tony Rome.  Do you really think the Cowboys are going to come in to Gillette stadium and beat a team who are arguably the best offensive team of all time, with the best quarteback of all time, who are 19 and 0 in their last 19 home games during the regular season and win ???  Esopecially the Dogboys ??
     
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    Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week" : I can see why your handle starts with Tex !!  I have three reasons why the Pats will win; (1) Tom Brady; (2) Tony Rome; (3) Tony Rome.  Do you really think the Cowboys are going to come in to Gillette stadium and beat a team who are arguably the best offensive team of all time, with the best quarteback of all time, who are 19 and 0 in their last 19 home games during the regular season and win ???  Esopecially the Dogboys ??
    Posted by dbincpumpkin[/QUOTE]

         First of all, I'm not a Cowboys' fan. Dallas had a bye last week. So, they'll be well rested, and are just about at full strength. They have the #1 run defense in the league, and have a strong passing attack. But, as you have correctly pointed out, Tony Romo's second half gaffes have cost Dallas two games, that they've should have won. Nonetheless, I see this as a very tough match-up for the Pats, particularly coming on the heels of Jets' week.  

         Apparently, I'm not the only one who shares this opinion. This from Tedy Bruschi: 

         "...I think (Jason) Witten is better than (Antonio) Gates, who has been hobbled. I would make Tony Romo try to complete passes to his receivers. While those receivers are dangerous too, one pass to those receivers is one fewer pass to Witten, and those are often easier passes over the middle of the field.

    Overall, this next week will be a different beast, as you're looking at the No. 1 defense against the run. They're the fourth ranked defense in yards. And they come in with a pass offense that can move the ball in the air. The Cowboys' defensive coordinator is Rob Ryan, so it will be a game where the Patriots' offensive coaches will have to sideline adjust against Ryan and his complex schemes. Should be a big test.": http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/7084366/bruschi-tap-how-much-patriots-defense-improved

         
     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week" :      First of all, I'm not a Cowboys' fan. Dallas had a bye last week. So, they'll be well rested, and are just about at full strength. They have the #1 run defense in the league, and have a strong passing attack. But, as you have correctly pointed out, Tony Romo's second half gaffes have cost Dallas two games, that they've should have won. Nonetheless, I see this as a very tough match-up for the Pats, particularly coming on the heels of Jets' week.        Apparently, I'm not the only one who shares this opinion. This from Tedy Bruschi:       "...I think (Jason) Witten is better than (Antonio) Gates, who has been hobbled. I would make Tony Romo try to complete passes to his receivers. While those receivers are dangerous too, one pass to those receivers is one fewer pass to Witten, and those are often easier passes over the middle of the field. Overall, this next week will be a different beast, as you're looking at the No. 1 defense against the run. They're the fourth ranked defense in yards. And they come in with a pass offense that can move the ball in the air. The Cowboys' defensive coordinator is Rob Ryan, so it will be a game where the Patriots' offensive coaches will have to sideline adjust against Ryan and his complex schemes. Should be a big test.": http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/7084366/bruschi-tap-how-much-patriots-defense-improved      
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    Never said you were a cowboys fan !  My quarel with your post is you are picking the cowboy's to win !  I understand and agree that the cowboy's will be tough, especially after the Jets game and a possible trap game in the making, but picking the cowboys ?  I think as a die hard Pats fan you'd have more confidence than that.
     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week" : Never said you were a cowboys fan !  My quarel with your post is you are picking the cowboy's to win !  I understand and agree that the cowboy's will be tough, especially after the Jets game and a possible trap game in the making, but picking the cowboys ?  I think as a die hard Pats fan you'd have more confidence than that.
    Posted by dbincpumpkin[/QUOTE]

         It's not "lack of confidence". I've picked the Pats and given the points in all previous games. But, I see this as a bit of a "trap game". The Cowboys might be the best team that the Pats have faced this season. So, I'm taking the Cowboys plus the 7 points.

         Heck...hope I'm wrong, and that the Pats bury them! If Tony Romo continues to turn it over, this could happen. 
     
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    I think most of you are looking at this backwards: the boys will have to change THEIR defense to try to match up with the Pat's offense...this current Pat's team offers more mismatches on offense than any team I can remember. Smile
     
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    Did you ever wonder how I could come up with statistically valid numeric rankings after only the first week of games?  Easy, I was using old 2010 rankings and adding the first week’s results to them. 

    Gradually the 2011 results gained traction.  Week 5, now, is the week that I will finally cut the residual ties to 2010 results.  Consequently, a number of teams are jumping up and down the rankings this week, but the cutoff has to be done.  Because of the cutoff, lots of changes are revealed here.  I wouldn’t want to hide the differences between 2010 and 2011 because they are pronounced and often as not they say something about the characters of certain teams.

    Ratings are out of 16 victories if the season started fresh tomorrow.

    My own statistical power ratings – honestly they are generally on the nose compared to anything I’ve seen on the web anywhere:

    1   gb   13.7   (last wk. 2)  They could have looked a little better vs. Atlanta, but they more or less cruised at an away game.

    2   bal   13.0   (last wk. 3)  At this hour, I have Baltimore and New England just about tied for second place in the NFL.  Both have handled the Jets pretty smoothly.  Right now, both are 13-3 teams.  Baltimore is ahead by 2/100ths of one victory. 

    3   ne   13.0   (last wk. 1)  New England’s rep in the last half of last year was golden.  Losing that afterglow drags New England down towards earth.  Still, the 2011 Pats have earned a #2 ranking this year by comfortably beating good teams.  I like New England’s chances for having its many rookies mature a bit by December, but this is based on September results up to today.  Too many newbie mistakes, for now.

    4   det   12.0   (last wk. 4)  Around here they had already shed their loser image in 2010, not to mention the first 4 weeks.  Remember that preseason game against the Patriots?

    5   buf   10.9   (last wk. 13)  For real!  They aren’t the Jets.  Buffalo had a horrid rep last year.  I bet they’re glad to cut off that 2010 tail of theirs.  In 2011, good against KC and generally tough in defeat.

    6   sf   10.8   (last wk. 20)  Bad rep last year.  Somehow they demolished a pretty good team in a laugher this week.  That counts for something.

    7   oak   10.6   (last wk. 16)  This one’s a shock.  However, they did beat up on both the Jets at home and Houston on the road.  Give it up for good 2011 performances.

    8   no   10.4   (last wk. 5)

    9   nyj   9.8   (last wk. 10)  About on target from 2010.  My stats care nothing for a team’s actual win-lose record, which is a horrid predictor of future performance.  All that I compare are margins of victory, avoiding various tickytack last minute scores.

    10   dal   9.7   (last wk. 15)

    11   hou   9.7   (last wk. 6)

    12   pit   9.5   (last wk. 7) Pittsburgh drops this week because they have now lost last year’s glitter.  New England got a great first place draw of Pitt and Indy!

    13   chi   9.0   (last wk. 9) 

    14   cin   8.8   (last wk. 21)  Note:  I had to make a judgment call on that silly touchdown with zero seconds left.  In the end I followed my preset rules and gave Cincy credit for the game’s final fumble/touchdown.  The score was in doubt on the final play, so count the TD.  The uptick won’t matter much someday.

    15   sd   8.3   (last wk. 12)

    16   phi   8.0   (last wk. 18)  They were mediocre last week, mediocre this week too.

    17   ten   7.9   (last wk. 8)  Pittsburgh just took the air out of Tennessee this week.  Tennessee is a good reason why I hang onto 2010 statistics through 4 games in 2011.  Bad teams sometimes have a fluke good game, and the statistics need a bit of stability.  In the same way, Detroit had great grades late in 2010 and those carried over nicely.

    18   was   7.8   (last wk. 19)

    19   min   7.3   (last wk. 22)

    20   atl   7.2   (last wk. 17) This team just lost its 2010 afterglow.  They did about as expected against Green Bay.

    21   den   6.9   (last wk. 25)

    22   sea   6.5   (last wk. 31) Seattle actually grew some whiskers this week.  Pretty good! 

    23   car   6.3   (last wk. 30)  Carolina grew some whiskers too! 

    24   nyg   6.1   (last wk. 11)  All of the teams that the Jints have so far played were pretty much duds.  If Seattle can beat the Giants badly, what’s left?

    25   tb   5.2   (last wk. 14)  Now it’s ok in the NFL to just give up on a game and suck your thumb?  I stopped counting this last massacre at 31 points down.  Even so, I need evidence that someone is home to raise The Bucs out of the cellar.  No playoffs, no way.

    26   az   5.1   (last wk. 27)

    27   kc   4.8   (last wk. 26)  A statistical loss of afterglow weighs a bit more heavily than beating Indy this week.

    28   mia   4.7   (last wk. 24)

    29   jac   4.4   (last wk. 29)

    30   cle   3.6   (last wk. 28)

    31   stl   2.9   (last wk. 32)

    32   ind   2.2   (last wk. 23)  Big loss of 2010 afterglow.  TexasPat was right in last week’s rankings.  In 2011 this Peyton-free team survives only on photosynthesis, and looks up to higher life forms such as the Venus Fly Trap.

     

    Visitor/home/my own statistical points/ Texas Pat’s points above (from Vegas)/ difference

    stl   gb    19.3   15   4.3

    buf   nyg    -4.1   3   -7.1

    ind   cin    12.9   7   5.9

    car   atl    4.3   4   0.3

    sf   det    4.8   5.5   -0.7

    phi   was    2.6   1   1.6

    jac   pit    10.7   12.5   -1.8

    cle   oak    13.5   5.5   8.0

    hou   bal    8.0   7   1.0

    no   tb    -4.8   -4.5   -0.3

    dal   ne    8.0   7   1.0

    min   chi    5.6   3   2.6

    mia   nyj    10.6   7.5   3.1

    Last week’s Game of the Week:

    For this game of the week my stats will bounce-house on top of Philly’s overinflated self.  Buffalo to cover and win too. 

    phi   buf    4.1   -3   7.1

    Ayuh!  Buffalo won by 7 points.  Candy from a baby.

    Game of this week:

    Oakland to cruise, at home, over Cleveland.

    cle   oak    13.5   5.5   8.0

    Other picks:

    Cincinnati to cruise, at home, over indy.

    ind   cin    12.9   7   5.9

    - - -

    After some thought, I don’t like to oppose anyone getting 15 points already.  Not quite worth the randomness.

    stl   gb    19.3   15   4.3

    New England only gets a miniscule favorable lean versus the spread.  Good luck with that.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jbolted. Show jbolted's posts

    Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    1.) (2-2) Dallas Cowboys (+7) @ (4-1) New England Patriots: Key matchup is Brady audibles vs. LB Sean Lee. Lee is having a great year, Cowboys MVP thus far. Lee has to make the right calls for the boys to have a shot. I think the 30 streak ends here. Pokes lose but cover.  PICK: Cowboys;

    2.) (0-4) St. Louis Rams (+15) @ (5-0) Green Bay Packers: 15 is too much  PICK: Rams; 

    3.) (1-4) Jacksonville Jaguars (+12.5) @ (3-2) Pittsburgh Steelers: I see this at a 17-3 clip  PICK: Steelers;

    4.) (1-4) Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ (3-1) Washington Redskins: Shanahan will not get this to better than 8-8, Higher scoring then most would think  PICK: Eagles outright;

    5.) (4-1) San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) @ (5-0) Detroit Lions:  After 48-3, I don’t see the 9ers losing this game. 9ers young Oline vs. Lions young DL. Youth vs. youth. I think the Lions are due for a letdown. 9ers outright PICK: 9ers;

    6.) (1-4) Carolina Panthers (+4) @ (2-3) Atlanta Falcons: Panthers are not the Pack. I expect ATL to win PICK: Falcons;

    7.) (0-5) Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ (3-2) Cincinnati Bengals: THE COLTS WILL NOT WIN A GAME UNTIL EVERYBODY ELSE DOES. Shoeless Joe Jackson’s Sox are very proud of these Clots, the fix is in. PICK: Bengals;

    8.) (4-1) Buffalo Bills (+3) @ (3-2) NY Giants; PICK: Bills;

    9.) (3-2) Houston Texans (+7) @ (3-1) Baltimore Ravens: If Flacco doesn’t turn the ball over, the Ravens are the best team in the NFL  PICK: Ravens;

    10.) (2-2) Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ (3-2) Oakland Raiders:  PICK: Raiders;

    11.) (4-1) New Orleans Saints @ (3-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.5):PICK: Saints;

    12.) (1-4) Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ (2-3) Chicago Bears:  PICK: Bears; 

    13.) (0-4) Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ (2-3) NY Jets:  PICK: Dolphins.

         BEST BETS: RAVENS, FALCONS

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from BSII. Show BSII's posts

    Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    Shoot out at the Razor, Dez Bryant will play with a chip on his shoulder as Pats "snubbed" him for McCourty.  I like the balance Pats showed last 2 weeks, more of that helps here.  34-31 Pats in a tight one. 

    I'd love to see the Fins turn up the pressure on Rex's Jesters by winning, can't see that happenning with Matt Moore at the helm.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    What I really like about the Pats this week:  first, they get people back.  Aaron Hernandez won't be rusty and drop a sure pass.  The other AH, Albert Haynesworth, will also be in better form.  Mike Wright will be useful if he shows up.  I think Dowling was working through an injury.  Maybe Danny Woodhead will make an appearance.  Price might work himself back on.  It would also be nice to see Edelman.

    Next, the rookies are growing, and BB has a bunch of them on the field so growth matters.  Nate Solder will be another week more mature.  So will Ras-I Dowling, a key to covering Dallas's big receivers.  So will Ridley and Vereen.  Vereen earned a black jersey last week, so it's not like he isn't trying. 

    Note that week 8 will be great with guys jumping off the PUP and NFI lists as needed.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]I think most of you are looking at this backwards: the boys will have to change THEIR defense to try to match up with the Pat's offense...this current Pat's team offers more mismatches on offense than any team I can remember.
    Posted by rainbowroosie[/QUOTE]

         Here's a preview on the Cowboys/Pats from former pro-bowl safety, John Lynch: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Tony-Romo-New-England-Patriots-Dallas-Cowboys-game-plan-101111

         Here's a view on how the Pats will attack the Cowboys' "D", from former Jets and Dolphins' QB, Chad Pennington: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/new-england-patriots-offense-plan-against-dallas-cowboys-defense-101211
     
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