WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

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    WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and "Game of the Week"

    Tex, we miss you.  Get your work done!

    The paulk 2.0 software is up and running this week.  I loved my new cross-country factor last week.  I hated my trap game factor. 

    San Francisco continues to show New England and Houston the right way to pound a stake into the ground, or in Buffalo's case, a steak.  Because San Francisco demonstrated Buffalo's utter incompetence, New England's pride in recently crushing Buffalo must be tempered.  Perhaps Buffalo just isn't that good this month, for whatever reason.

    1   sf   15.4   (last wk. 1)

    2   hou   13.0   (last wk. 3)

    3   ne   13.0   (last wk. 2)

    4   atl   12.0   (last wk. 5)

    5   gb   11.2   (last wk. 4)

    6   sd   11.1   (last wk. 6)

    7   chi   10.7   (last wk. 10)

    8   nyg   10.2   (last wk. 13)

    9   min   9.7   (last wk. 11)

    10   den   9.5   (last wk. 12)

    11   bal   9.3   (last wk. 9)

    12   sea   8.8   (last wk. 15)

    13   no   8.8   (last wk. 7)

    14   dal   8.4   (last wk. 17)

    15   cin   8.1   (last wk. 8)

    16   pit   7.4   (last wk. 14)

    17   nyj   7.1   (last wk. 18)

    18   phi   6.7   (last wk. 21)

    19   mia   6.7   (last wk. 23)

    20   det   6.6   (last wk. 19)

    21   car   6.5   (last wk. 16)

    22   kc   5.9   (last wk. 29)

    23   was   5.7   (last wk. 26)

    24   az   5.6   (last wk. 20)

    25   ind   5.3   (last wk. 30)

    26   ten   5.1   (last wk. 25)

    27   stl   5.0   (last wk. 32)

    28   tb   4.9   (last wk. 28)

    29   buf   4.9   (last wk. 27)

    30   cle   4.7   (last wk. 22)

    31   jac   4.5   (last wk. 24)

    32   oak   4.2   (last wk. 31)

    For last week's game of the week I called for San Francisco to crush Buffalo by an outrageous 20.9 point margin.  The actual margin of victory was 42 points.  Some of the piling on consisted of garbage time touchdowns, so a spread of 20.9 points wasn't that bad a forecast.  I'm up to 3-1-1 on games of the week, go, go, go, 10-9 overall. 

    My week six point spreads:

    Visitor / home / my point spread / the gambling public's opinion / difference

    pit   ten    -1.8   -5.0   3.2

    stl   mia    5.3   3.5   1.8

    det   phi    0.2   4.5   -4.3

    cin   cle    -5.3   -2.5   -2.8

    ind   nyj    7.0   3.0   4.0

    kc   tb    4.6   3.5   1.1

    oak   atl    14.7   8.5   6.2

    dal   bal    2.3   3.5   -1.2

    ne   sea    0.3   -3.5   3.8

    buf   az    9.4   4.5   4.9

    min   was    -0.4   1.5   -1.9

    nyg   sf    14.6   4.5   10.1

    gb   hou    7.0   3.5   3.5

    den   sd    6.4   1.5   4.9

    Game of the week, San Francisco again.  As long as they keep outdoing themselves every week, the 49ers are the new death star.  Looking forward to next week, it's not as if San Francisco put in a long and brutal previous week against Buffalo, or that they had a long flight home last Sunday.  Alex Smith’s finger sprain apparently wasn't bothering him as early as this Monday. 

    The New York Giants keep displaying an odd ability to lose to Philadelphia, to fold up against Dallas, to reasonably get by a really bad team such as Tampa Bay.  They're consistently playing like a 10-6 team at this point.  Their moderately above average style won't be good enough next Sunday.  A 3,000 mile commute across three time zones won’t help New York’s constitution. 

    nyg   sf    14.6   4.5   10.1

    Other picks: 

    oak   atl    14.7   8.5   6.2

    Atlanta's advantage in having Oakland fly across the country is neutralized by Oakland's bye week last week.  Also, I don't like huge overdogs.  On the other hand, Oakland picked up a spectacularly bad injury list in its last game against Denver, a real fireball crash of a game, and my stats miss recent injuries, so I'll manually add a couple of points back toward Atlanta.

         Leaners, not good enough to be picks:

    San Diego over Denver.  This leaner probably has the best legs of the next three.  In general, teams play terrible after getting beaten to death by New England.  It's called the New England effect at the National Football Post.  Confidential to the Chargers:  Peyton Manning has had four neck surgeries and can no longer turn his head to see blitzers approaching him from straight behind.  Rob Ninkovich caught Peyton's body completely by surprise, and then Nink stripped the football to boot.  Vince Wilfork recovered and a Patriots touchdown soon followed.  Study the film, grasshopper, and prosper.

    Detroit over Philadelphia  Detroit's secret weapon is a bye week.  According to news reports, the Lions got healthier over the bye week.  In addition, Detroit had more time to study Philly's unique quarterback attack.

    Arizona over Buffalo  The problem here with my stats is that Buffalo is spending the week out west, so that 6,000 miles of Bills' travel problems inherent in my stats will be neutralized.  Arizona is coming off of a 10-day layover and that should help them a bit.

    No way am I favoring the New York Jets over Indianapolis at all.  News reports suggest that the Jets' two big injury problems at cornerback and at center are not going to get significantly better this week. 

    No way am I favoring Seattle over New England.  Hernandez almost played last week and should be back this week.  If Hernandez plays, that’s a pretty big move.

     

    How about you?  I'm Mr. Big Stuff at least for this week.  Want to take me on?

     

     
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    Re: WEEK SIX NFL PICKS and

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    not too bad but you are no Tex Pat!

    I respect ur opinions and knowledge but don't know if I can take too seriously a "program" that puts the bears, packers and freakin' SD ahead of the Giants! you can make a n arguement for Bears and Packers but freakin' SD??

    [/QUOTE]

    You did lead me to a data entry goof.  Last Sunday night I took a snapshot of the NFL at some point in the second quarter.  San Diego was ahead by 3 when I took the snapshot.  I didn't revise at the final whistle, New Orleans by 7, a 10 point swing.

    My numbers still respect strong performances.  By my numbers, San Diego was well ahead of Oakland by 16 points when desperation time set in.  Oakland scored one meaningless touchdown, the kind that tend to reflect a team's need to please somebody, but that don't show the team's real strength.  In the Atlanta game, Atlanta ran up the score by another TD after the game was well in hand.  My system throws this noise out.

    San Diego is still pretty good but they did get nudged below the Giants.  Here are the rankings and points after the San Diego change.  New Orleans is up and San Diego went down.  Notice how most ratings only changed a bit from my original ratings. 

    1    sf    15.4    (last wk.    1    )
    2    hou    13.1    (last wk.    3    )
    3    ne    13.0    (last wk.    2    )
    4    atl    11.9    (last wk.    5    )
    5    gb    11.2    (last wk.    4    )
    6    chi    10.7    (last wk.    13    )
    7    nyg    10.3    (last wk.    12    )
    8    no    10.0    (last wk.    9    )
    9    sd    9.9    (last wk.    6    )
    10    min    9.5    (last wk.    10    )
    11    den    9.4    (last wk.    11    )
    12    bal    9.3    (last wk.    7    )
    13    sea    8.9    (last wk.    15    )
    14    dal    8.4    (last wk.    17    )
    15    cin    8.2    (last wk.    8    )
    16    pit    7.4    (last wk.    14    )
    17    nyj    7.2    (last wk.    18    )
    18    phi    6.7    (last wk.    22    )
    19    mia    6.7    (last wk.    21    )
    20    car    6.7    (last wk.    16    )
    21    det    6.6    (last wk.    20    )
    22    kc    5.8    (last wk.    28    )
    23    was    5.7    (last wk.    26    )
    24    az    5.7    (last wk.    19    )
    25    ind    5.3    (last wk.    30    )
    26    ten    5.0    (last wk.    25    )
    27    tb    5.0    (last wk.    29    )
    28    stl    4.9    (last wk.    32    )
    29    buf    4.9    (last wk.    27    )
    30    cle    4.7    (last wk.    24    )
    31    jac    4.6    (last wk.    23    )
    32    oak    4.0    (last wk.    31    )

    pit    ten            -1.9    -5.0    3.1
    stl    mia            5.4    3.5    1.9
    det    phi            0.2    4.5    -4.3
    cin    cle            -5.3    -2.5    -2.8
    ind    nyj            7.1    3.0    4.1
    kc    tb            4.8    3.5    1.3
    oak    atl            14.9    8.5    6.4
    dal    bal            2.3    3.5    -1.2
    ne    sea            0.2    -3.5    3.7
    buf    az            9.5    4.5    5.0
    min    was            -0.2    1.5    -1.7
    nyg    sf            14.6    4.5    10.1
    gb    hou            7.1    3.5    3.6
    den    sd            4.7    1.5    3.2

    I'll leave the San Diego game in the leaner category, but the game is leaning somewhat less.

     
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