WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    they talk run......Haynesworth and Wilfork better be blowing up that line
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    The Bills could be a challenge if we just go through the motions. They are hungry.

    The jets could well be exposed this week. They have benefited from 2 idiot QBs heretofore.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    Lol, never thought I would say this but the Bills are playing lights out football.  I don't care that they beat a bad KC team, they did it in epic fashion.  Almost the same beating the Lions gave KC, that says something right there.  Then they go out and edge a very tough young team in Oakland. The Bills are on fire this season. This is going to be a very tough, hard fought contest.  And it's on the Bills home turf.  Not gonna lie this one has me a bit worried.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    The underdogs had some fight in them this week.  By pulling themselves up, they also pulled the entire top of the list down a bit.  Any given Sunday…

    As always, my own calculated ratings are the number of victories out of 16 expected if the season began anew today.  No, I don’t jigger the numbers to put the Patriots on top, they just are always on top, but I can’t seem to tell the trolls anything bad about their teams.

    1   ne   15.0   (last wk. 1)

    2   gb   13.4   (last wk. 2)

    3   det   11.8   (last wk. 6)  Quite the rise.  They were good against New England in preseason too.

    4   nyj   11.4   (last wk. 7)  Also on the rise.

    5   pit   11.0   (last wk. 8)

    6   bal   10.7   (last wk. 4)

    7   chi   10.6   (last wk. 3)

    8   phi   10.5   (last wk. 5)

    9   hou   10.3   (last wk. 9)

    10   no   10.2   (last wk. 15)

    11   atl   9.9   (last wk. 14)

    12   sd   9.2   (last wk. 11)

    13   tb   8.5   (last wk. 23)

    14   dal   8.4   (last wk. 12)

    15   ten   8.3   (last wk. 20)

    16   nyg   8.0   (last wk. 16)

    17   buf   7.8   (last wk. 10)

    18   oak   7.7   (last wk. 24)

    19   min   7.4   (last wk. 17)

    20   cin   7.3   (last wk. 18)

    21   cle   7.2   (last wk. 25)

    22   was   6.9   (last wk. 13)

    23   mia   6.5   (last wk. 19)

    24   sf   5.6   (last wk. 26)

    25   jac   5.4   (last wk. 21)

    26   ind   5.1   (last wk. 22)

    27   den   5.0   (last wk. 29)

    28   az   4.5   (last wk. 31)

    29   stl   4.5   (last wk. 27)

    30   car   3.1   (last wk. 32)

    31   kc   2.5   (last wk. 28)

    32   sea   2.4   (last wk. 30)

    My own statistical point spreads

    visitor/home/my points/the public’s opinion/difference

    ne   buf   -7.9   -8.5   0.6

    sf   cin   5.6   2.5   3.1

    hou   no   2.9   4   -1.1

    nyg   phi   6.8   5   1.8

    mia   cle   4.1   2.5   1.6

    den   ten   7.9   7   0.9

    det   min   -3.6   -3.5   -0.1

    jac   car   -0.4   3.5   -3.9

    kc   sd   13.1   14.5   -1.4

    nyj   oak   -2.6   -3   0.4

    bal   stl   -6.3   -4.5   -1.8

    atl   tb   0.9   1.5   -0.6

    az   sea   -0.2   -3.5   3.3

    gb   chi   -1.2   -3.5   2.3

    pit   ind   -5.7   -10.5   4.8

    was   dal   5.2   5.5   -0.3

    Game of the week:

    I have next to nothing this week, and pick under duress.  I’ll go with Indy to cover (but not to actually win at home) against Pittsburgh.  Indy actually scored 19 points against somebody, anybody, last week.  That's not quite true, the last TD was a joke, but the offense did get into field goal range four times.  Let’s put out one cheer that the free-fall is slowing, and so I’m hoping that whatever thing they have at quarterback is settling down week by week enough to do a dead cat bounce.  Everybody knows that Indy is dead and that they’ll have no shame in front of their home crowd, but maybe…

    pit   ind   -5.7   -10.5   4.8

    last week:  3-3.

     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    We'll see if the Bills are for real.  Think it'll be a little closer than the spread.  Pats by 5.

     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    I believe that the Bills will not be able to run between tackles.  Nobody has as of yet. 

    San Diego will be on fire.  I wouldn't want to be the Colts right now.  The Jets game holds interest.

     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    "Another home loss to New England would be extremely demoralizing."

    Here's the thing Pat. One thing the Bills have to do if they want to progress as a team is not fall apart after losing. They showed some resilience last week when they came back in the second half. The Pats won't take them lightly.

    Like the Chargers last week I look at beating the Bills as another win we have put under our belts to keep the Jets honest.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    TexasPat,

    Great job on your weekly posts. I enjoy both your picks and the Pats grades. Terrific job!

    I will respecfully disagree on the:

    49ers: I just see the 9ers as an overall stronger team than the Bengals who I anticipated being one of the leagues worst and still may be

    Giants: I agree with you that this is a great chance for the G-men to pounce and we will see how well the Eagles play in a full game without Vick. Kafka did well last week in part time duty but lets see how he does against the Giants D.

    Dolphins: I just think that the Phish are better than their record and the Browns and their young QB need some seasoning. Sparano could use a break.

    My upset of the week: Raiders over Jets - Reasons: Out in Oakland, Jets missing Mangold, Sanchez can throw up a stinker at any time, Seymour helps the Pats again!
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    TexasPat, ...Raiders over Jets - Reasons: Out in Oakland, Jets missing Mangold, Sanchez can throw up a stinker at any time, Seymour helps the Pats again!
    Posted by BostonFanInFlorida


    ah yes. the jets starts to get exposed this weekend.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    i would not be surprised if the jets lose 5 of their next 7 games. and chances of them losing 7 straight is not that remote.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    I cant stand the Jets like the rest of us but you must admit they have a very good defense. Their offense is well offensive but the "D" will keep them in games. I still see Oakland playing them tough. Jets will have their hands full with Oaklands run game.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    campbell has a higher qb rating than sanchez. their passing game is adequate enough to effectively complement the running game.

    the way i see it, oak is more capable of scoring against the jets d than the jets o against the oak d. i don't look at their stats over the past two games because their last game was against jax.
     
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    Amazing the Skins and Lions could be 3-0 heading into the 1/4 pole. 

    Tough to beat a team 16 straight times, Pats may have their hands full.  Bills are hungry, it was nice to see Buffalo rocking like it was last Sunday.  They have a good fanbase.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    Bills will turn it over and the Pats won't.  That will be the difference.  I might take the Bills at 8.5 but the Pats win something like 27-20.  I wouldn't be surprised if this game is a little lower scoring than expected.

    This will be a good week to sort of gauge the mentality of this SD team.  I could absolutely see them letting KC keep it much closer than it ought it to, because SD knows if they play 20 good minutes they will win and we know SD isn't always the most game ready team.

    I think the 3 point spread on the OAK/NYJ game is very interesting.  Seems like there is some doubt about how the Jets will perform on the road against a somewhat respectable opponent. 

    Panthers seem like a lock to me. 

    I don't see the Bears scoring enough points to stay with Rodgers, especially since they actually play on a real football field in Chicago now.

    Sounds like Vick may likely play which might be bad news for both teams.  Bad news for the Gmen because they love giving up huge plays to anyone but especially to Vick.  Bad news for the Eagles because 1 thing the Gmen are good at, knocking around the QB.  
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    Warning:  if the Boston Globe's paywall goes up, my gift of my unique power  ratings goes down and moves elsewhere. 
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    The underdogs had some fight in them this week.   By pulling themselves up, they also pulled the entire top of the list down a bit.   Any given Sunday… As always, my own calculated ratings are the number of victories out of 16 expected if the season began anew today.   No, I don’t jigger the numbers to put the Patriots on top, they just are always on top, but I can’t seem to tell the trolls anything bad about their teams. 1    ne    15.0    (last wk. 1) 2    gb    13.4    (last wk. 2) 3    det    11.8    (last wk. 6)  Quite the rise.  They were good against New England in preseason too. 4    nyj    11.4    (last wk. 7)  Also on the rise. 5    pit    11.0    (last wk. 8) 6    bal    10.7    (last wk. 4) 7    chi    10.6    (last wk. 3) 8    phi    10.5    (last wk. 5) 9    hou    10.3    (last wk. 9) 10    no    10.2    (last wk. 15) 11    atl    9.9    (last wk. 14) 12    sd    9.2    (last wk. 11) 13    tb    8.5    (last wk. 23) 14    dal    8.4    (last wk. 12) 15    ten    8.3    (last wk. 20) 16    nyg    8.0    (last wk. 16) 17    buf    7.8    (last wk. 10) 18    oak    7.7    (last wk. 24) 19    min    7.4    (last wk. 17) 20    cin    7.3    (last wk. 18) 21    cle    7.2    (last wk. 25) 22    was    6.9    (last wk. 13) 23    mia    6.5    (last wk. 19) 24    sf    5.6    (last wk. 26) 25    jac    5.4    (last wk. 21) 26    ind    5.1    (last wk. 22) 27    den    5.0    (last wk. 29) 28    az    4.5    (last wk. 31) 29    stl    4.5    (last wk. 27) 30    car    3.1    (last wk. 32) 31    kc    2.5    (last wk. 28) 32    sea    2.4    (last wk. 30) My own statistical point spreads visitor/home/my points/the public’s opinion/difference ne    buf    -7.9    -8.5    0.6 sf    cin    5.6     2.5    3.1 hou    no    2.9    4    -1.1 nyg    phi    6.8    5    1.8 mia    cle    4.1    2.5    1.6 den    ten    7.9    7    0.9 det    min    -3.6    -3.5    -0.1 jac    car    -0.4    3.5    -3.9 kc    sd    13.1    14.5    -1.4 nyj    oak    -2.6    -3    0.4 bal    stl    -6.3    -4.5    -1.8 atl    tb    0.9    1.5    -0.6 az    sea    -0.2    -3.5    3.3 gb    chi    -1.2    -3.5    2.3 pit    ind    -5.7    -10.5    4.8 was    dal    5.2    5.5    -0.3 Game of the week: I have next to nothing this week, and pick under duress.   I’ll go with Indy to cover (but not to actually win at home) against Pittsburgh.   Indy actually scored 19 points against somebody, anybody, last week.   That's not quite true, the last TD was a joke, but the offense did get into field goal range four times.  Let’s put out one cheer that the free-fall is slowing, and so I’m hoping that whatever thing they have at quarterback is settling down week by week enough to do a dead cat bounce.   Everybody knows that Indy is dead and that they’ll have no shame in front of their home crowd, but maybe… pit    ind    -5.7    -10.5    4.8 last week:   3-3.
    Posted by Paul_K



    Hi Pauk_K,

    I don't know about other posters, but I would appreciate how you estimate or forecast numbers of wins in your rankings. I think I saw an explanation or your ranking method last year and it seemed to make sense at the time, but what I get out of your thread here makes me think it's just qualified subjective guesswork. So if you do haev a foundation for your tables I would like to hear it.
    Thanks for listening even if iot is only your forecast...seems fairly good to me.

    Anyone else have a methodology or forecast/rating system?

     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    Warning:  if the Boston Globe's paywall goes up, my gift of my unique power  ratings goes down and moves elsewhere. 
    Posted by Paul_K


    before that happens, can we agree on where to go and woul be ideal if people kept their names.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

     Hernandez has been so good these past two weeks that I worry about our red zone offense. The Pats, I expect will move the ball between the 20's easily enough but Hernandez and Gronkowski are red zone beasts and I worry if one of them is out how will it effect the play of the other. I still expect a win but maybe the game will be closer than otherwise one would expect. Out of curiosity does anyone know how the Pats red zone zone offense since the Browns game last year compares to the rest of the league. I can't recall an offense being so efficient in the red zone, when they had to kick the field goal last sunday it was kind of shocking to me. I was sure they were going to score there (Branch did appear open to me but I only saw was CBS showed on the replay).
     
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