WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

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    WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

         Coming off a brutal week two of prognosticating (actually, not that bad, 7-8-1), I'm buoyed by the fact that I was right about the most important pick...the Pats beating the Chargers, and covering a 7 point spread. So...like a CB whose just been "Mossed", I'll elect to have a short memory, and move on to this week.

         Here are my picks, with the "Game of the Week" being:

    1.) (2-0) New England Patriots @ (2-0) Buffalo Bills (+8.5): Call me a homer if you will, but this is the only game on the marquee between two undefeated teams. Though the Patriots get all the publicity for their high scoring offense, the Bills actually have out-scored them so far, 79-73. This is a statement game for the Bills. The Patriots have beaten Buffalo 15 times in a row. Another home loss to New England would be extremely demoralizing. Like the Patriots, the Bills are experiencing some injury troubles. WR Roscoe Parrish will be out, while Buffalo's top WR, Stevie Johnson, has been hobbled by a groin injury. Currently, the Bills lead the league in rushing. Look for the Pats to concentrate on shutting down Buffalo's running game, by containing RBs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller:
    PICK: Patriots;
     
    2.) (1-1) San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) @ (1-1) Cincinnati Bengals:
    Home opener for the Bengals, who lost a heart breaker last weekend in Denver. But, the 49ers had their hearts broken too, blowing a two TD lead, and losing in OT to the Cowboys. Should be a tight, boring game between two rebuilding teams:
    PICK: Bengals;

    3.) (2-0) Houston Texans (+4) @ (1-1) New Orleans Saints: The Texans were the beneficiaries of several Dolphin blunders, which cost Miami dearly. That won't happen with Drew Brees and company. This will be a huge test for the Texans' revamped secondary:
    PICK: Saints;

    4.) (1-1) New York Giants (+5) @ (1-1) Philadelphia Eagles: Mike Kafka will make his first NFL start against the G-men, replacing the injured Michael Vick. This is a golden opportunity for the Giants to make themselves relevant in the NFC East. Home opener for the Eagles:
    PICK: Eagles;

    5.) (0-2) Miami Dolphins (+2.5) @ (1-1) Cleveland Browns:
    Tony Sparano takes another step down termination lane:
    PICK: Browns;

    6.) (1-1) Denver Broncos (+7) @ (1-1) Tennessee Titans: Titans have an opportunity to build on last weeks' upset win against the Buzzards. RB Chris Johnson has yet to cut lose. He'll do so this week:
    PICK: Titans;

    7.) (2-0) Detroit Lions @ (0-2) Minnesota Vikings (+3.5): The Lions are for real. The Vikings are no big deal:
    PICK: Lions;

    8.) (1-1) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ (0-2) Carolina Panthers: The Jags looked disinterested in their blowout loss to the Jets. The Panthers have been competitive in losses to Arizona and Green Bay:
    PICK: Panthers;

    9.) (0-2) Kansas City Chiefs (+14.5) @ (1-1) San Diego Chargers: The Bolts have a chance to redeem themselves after repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot in New England. The Chiefs continue to make strides in the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes:
    PICK: Chargers;  

    10.) (2-0) New York Jets @ (1-1) Oakland Raiders (+3): Though the Raiders are young and athletic, the spread here is only three points:
    PICK: Jets;

    11.) (1-1) Baltimore Ravens @ (0-2) St. Louis Rams (+4.5): The Buzzards, still crowing over the week one pounding of the Steelers, let the Titans sneak up on them. Poor Sam Bradford...coming off an 0-2 start, and facing what should be an inspired Buzzards' defense, on a short week:
    PICK: Buzzards;

    12.) (1-1) Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) @ (1-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Huge divisional game for both teams, as they try to keep pace with the Saints:
    PICK: Falcons;

    13.) (1-1) Arizona Cardinals @ (0-2) Seattle Seahawks (+3.5): The Cards lost a tough one last week in D.C.. Unlike the Seahawks, the Cards actually have a QB:
    PICK: Cardinals;

    14.) (2-0) Green Bay Packers @ (1-1) Chicago Bears (+3.5): No team gave the Packers more trouble last season than the Bears. With Detroit and Green Bay both off to 2-0 starts, The Bears can ill afford to fall two games behind:
    PICK: Bears;

    15.) (1-1) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (0-2) Indianapolis Colts (+10.5): Though the Steelers pitched a shutout last week, the clean-up hitter for the opposing Seattle team was Tavaris Jackson. In Indy, it won't be much tougher, with Kerry Collins hitting in the four hole. The Colts appeared to quit on head coach Jim Caldwell last week:
    PICK: Steelers;

    16.) (2-0) Washington Redskins (+5.5) @ (1-1) Dallas Cowboys: Once, in a galaxy far, far away, this match-up was the hottest rivalry in the NFL. But now, it's Rex Grossman against the beat up Dallas Cowboys. Though the Cowboys lead the league in sacks, the Redskins appear to have the better defense. Tony Romo, and the 'Boys best WRs, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, are all nursing injuries. It's doubtful that Austin will play:
    PICK: Redskins.

         BEST BETS: Patriots, Saints, Lions, and Ravens.

         Your thoughts and opinions are welcome...particularly on the Patriots/Bills game.

               
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

         Don't expect the nicked up Pats to take the Bills, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, lightly: http://washingtonexaminer.com/sports/nfl/2011/09/patriots-not-taking-bills-lightly
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

         In Buffalo, the question is, "Can the Bills beat the Patriots?": http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20110920/SPORTS03/109200307/Can-Bills-beat-Patriots-?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Bills  
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    they talk run......Haynesworth and Wilfork better be blowing up that line
     
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    The Bills could be a challenge if we just go through the motions. They are hungry.

    The jets could well be exposed this week. They have benefited from 2 idiot QBs heretofore.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    Lol, never thought I would say this but the Bills are playing lights out football.  I don't care that they beat a bad KC team, they did it in epic fashion.  Almost the same beating the Lions gave KC, that says something right there.  Then they go out and edge a very tough young team in Oakland. The Bills are on fire this season. This is going to be a very tough, hard fought contest.  And it's on the Bills home turf.  Not gonna lie this one has me a bit worried.
     
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    The underdogs had some fight in them this week.  By pulling themselves up, they also pulled the entire top of the list down a bit.  Any given Sunday…

    As always, my own calculated ratings are the number of victories out of 16 expected if the season began anew today.  No, I don’t jigger the numbers to put the Patriots on top, they just are always on top, but I can’t seem to tell the trolls anything bad about their teams.

    1   ne   15.0   (last wk. 1)

    2   gb   13.4   (last wk. 2)

    3   det   11.8   (last wk. 6)  Quite the rise.  They were good against New England in preseason too.

    4   nyj   11.4   (last wk. 7)  Also on the rise.

    5   pit   11.0   (last wk. 8)

    6   bal   10.7   (last wk. 4)

    7   chi   10.6   (last wk. 3)

    8   phi   10.5   (last wk. 5)

    9   hou   10.3   (last wk. 9)

    10   no   10.2   (last wk. 15)

    11   atl   9.9   (last wk. 14)

    12   sd   9.2   (last wk. 11)

    13   tb   8.5   (last wk. 23)

    14   dal   8.4   (last wk. 12)

    15   ten   8.3   (last wk. 20)

    16   nyg   8.0   (last wk. 16)

    17   buf   7.8   (last wk. 10)

    18   oak   7.7   (last wk. 24)

    19   min   7.4   (last wk. 17)

    20   cin   7.3   (last wk. 18)

    21   cle   7.2   (last wk. 25)

    22   was   6.9   (last wk. 13)

    23   mia   6.5   (last wk. 19)

    24   sf   5.6   (last wk. 26)

    25   jac   5.4   (last wk. 21)

    26   ind   5.1   (last wk. 22)

    27   den   5.0   (last wk. 29)

    28   az   4.5   (last wk. 31)

    29   stl   4.5   (last wk. 27)

    30   car   3.1   (last wk. 32)

    31   kc   2.5   (last wk. 28)

    32   sea   2.4   (last wk. 30)

    My own statistical point spreads

    visitor/home/my points/the public’s opinion/difference

    ne   buf   -7.9   -8.5   0.6

    sf   cin   5.6   2.5   3.1

    hou   no   2.9   4   -1.1

    nyg   phi   6.8   5   1.8

    mia   cle   4.1   2.5   1.6

    den   ten   7.9   7   0.9

    det   min   -3.6   -3.5   -0.1

    jac   car   -0.4   3.5   -3.9

    kc   sd   13.1   14.5   -1.4

    nyj   oak   -2.6   -3   0.4

    bal   stl   -6.3   -4.5   -1.8

    atl   tb   0.9   1.5   -0.6

    az   sea   -0.2   -3.5   3.3

    gb   chi   -1.2   -3.5   2.3

    pit   ind   -5.7   -10.5   4.8

    was   dal   5.2   5.5   -0.3

    Game of the week:

    I have next to nothing this week, and pick under duress.  I’ll go with Indy to cover (but not to actually win at home) against Pittsburgh.  Indy actually scored 19 points against somebody, anybody, last week.  That's not quite true, the last TD was a joke, but the offense did get into field goal range four times.  Let’s put out one cheer that the free-fall is slowing, and so I’m hoping that whatever thing they have at quarterback is settling down week by week enough to do a dead cat bounce.  Everybody knows that Indy is dead and that they’ll have no shame in front of their home crowd, but maybe…

    pit   ind   -5.7   -10.5   4.8

    last week:  3-3.

     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    We'll see if the Bills are for real.  Think it'll be a little closer than the spread.  Pats by 5.

     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    I believe that the Bills will not be able to run between tackles.  Nobody has as of yet. 

    San Diego will be on fire.  I wouldn't want to be the Colts right now.  The Jets game holds interest.

     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Lol, never thought I would say this but the Bills are playing lights out football.  I don't care that they beat a bad KC team, they did it in epic fashion.  Almost the same beating the Lions gave KC, that says something right there.  Then they go out and edge a very tough young team in Oakland. The Bills are on fire this season. This is going to be a very tough, hard fought contest.  And it's on the Bills home turf.  Not gonna lie this one has me a bit worried.
    Posted by BradyMossFan[/QUOTE]

         If the Patriots are what we think they are...a legitimate SB contender...they'll blow the Bills away. BB will make sure the Pats' don't go into Buffalo over confident. I expect the Pats to win this one big.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    "Another home loss to New England would be extremely demoralizing."

    Here's the thing Pat. One thing the Bills have to do if they want to progress as a team is not fall apart after losing. They showed some resilience last week when they came back in the second half. The Pats won't take them lightly.

    Like the Chargers last week I look at beating the Bills as another win we have put under our belts to keep the Jets honest.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    TexasPat,

    Great job on your weekly posts. I enjoy both your picks and the Pats grades. Terrific job!

    I will respecfully disagree on the:

    49ers: I just see the 9ers as an overall stronger team than the Bengals who I anticipated being one of the leagues worst and still may be

    Giants: I agree with you that this is a great chance for the G-men to pounce and we will see how well the Eagles play in a full game without Vick. Kafka did well last week in part time duty but lets see how he does against the Giants D.

    Dolphins: I just think that the Phish are better than their record and the Browns and their young QB need some seasoning. Sparano could use a break.

    My upset of the week: Raiders over Jets - Reasons: Out in Oakland, Jets missing Mangold, Sanchez can throw up a stinker at any time, Seymour helps the Pats again!
     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]TexasPat, Great job on your weekly posts. I enjoy both your picks and the Pats grades. Terrific job! I will respecfully disagree on the: 49ers: I just see the 9ers as an overall stronger team than the Bengals who I anticipated being one of the leagues worst and still may be Giants: I agree with you that this is a great chance for the G-men to pounce and we will see how well the Eagles play in a full game without Vick. Kafka did well last week in part time duty but lets see how he does against the Giants D. Dolphins: I just think that the Phish are better than their record and the Browns and their young QB need some seasoning. Sparano could use a break. My upset of the week: Raiders over Jets - Reasons: Out in Oakland, Jets missing Mangold, Sanchez can throw up a stinker at any time, Seymour helps the Pats again!
    Posted by BostonFanInFlorida[/QUOTE]

         Hope you're right about the Jets losing to the Raiders. But, either way, this game will end up helping the Patriots. If the Jets lose, assuming the Pats beat the Bills, New England will take sole possession of first place in the AFC East.

         If the Jets win, the Raiders will fall to 1-2. The more games that Oakland loses, the better off the Patriots will be...as the Pats own the Raiders' 2nd round draft choice in the upcoming draft.
     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]TexasPat, ...Raiders over Jets - Reasons: Out in Oakland, Jets missing Mangold, Sanchez can throw up a stinker at any time, Seymour helps the Pats again!
    Posted by BostonFanInFlorida[/QUOTE]

    ah yes. the jets starts to get exposed this weekend.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    i would not be surprised if the jets lose 5 of their next 7 games. and chances of them losing 7 straight is not that remote.
     
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    I cant stand the Jets like the rest of us but you must admit they have a very good defense. Their offense is well offensive but the "D" will keep them in games. I still see Oakland playing them tough. Jets will have their hands full with Oaklands run game.
     
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    campbell has a higher qb rating than sanchez. their passing game is adequate enough to effectively complement the running game.

    the way i see it, oak is more capable of scoring against the jets d than the jets o against the oak d. i don't look at their stats over the past two games because their last game was against jax.
     
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    Amazing the Skins and Lions could be 3-0 heading into the 1/4 pole. 

    Tough to beat a team 16 straight times, Pats may have their hands full.  Bills are hungry, it was nice to see Buffalo rocking like it was last Sunday.  They have a good fanbase.
     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Amazing the Skins and Lions could be 3-0 heading into the 1/4 pole.  Tough to beat a team 16 straight times, Pats may have their hands full.  Bills are hungry, it was nice to see Buffalo rocking like it was last Sunday.  They have a good fanbase.
    Posted by BSII[/QUOTE]

         The Bills may be "hungry", but they'll go without dinner this Sunday.
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    Bills will turn it over and the Pats won't.  That will be the difference.  I might take the Bills at 8.5 but the Pats win something like 27-20.  I wouldn't be surprised if this game is a little lower scoring than expected.

    This will be a good week to sort of gauge the mentality of this SD team.  I could absolutely see them letting KC keep it much closer than it ought it to, because SD knows if they play 20 good minutes they will win and we know SD isn't always the most game ready team.

    I think the 3 point spread on the OAK/NYJ game is very interesting.  Seems like there is some doubt about how the Jets will perform on the road against a somewhat respectable opponent. 

    Panthers seem like a lock to me. 

    I don't see the Bears scoring enough points to stay with Rodgers, especially since they actually play on a real football field in Chicago now.

    Sounds like Vick may likely play which might be bad news for both teams.  Bad news for the Gmen because they love giving up huge plays to anyone but especially to Vick.  Bad news for the Eagles because 1 thing the Gmen are good at, knocking around the QB.  
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    Warning:  if the Boston Globe's paywall goes up, my gift of my unique power  ratings goes down and moves elsewhere. 
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]The underdogs had some fight in them this week.   By pulling themselves up, they also pulled the entire top of the list down a bit.   Any given Sunday… As always, my own calculated ratings are the number of victories out of 16 expected if the season began anew today.   No, I don’t jigger the numbers to put the Patriots on top, they just are always on top, but I can’t seem to tell the trolls anything bad about their teams. 1    ne    15.0    (last wk. 1) 2    gb    13.4    (last wk. 2) 3    det    11.8    (last wk. 6)  Quite the rise.  They were good against New England in preseason too. 4    nyj    11.4    (last wk. 7)  Also on the rise. 5    pit    11.0    (last wk. 8) 6    bal    10.7    (last wk. 4) 7    chi    10.6    (last wk. 3) 8    phi    10.5    (last wk. 5) 9    hou    10.3    (last wk. 9) 10    no    10.2    (last wk. 15) 11    atl    9.9    (last wk. 14) 12    sd    9.2    (last wk. 11) 13    tb    8.5    (last wk. 23) 14    dal    8.4    (last wk. 12) 15    ten    8.3    (last wk. 20) 16    nyg    8.0    (last wk. 16) 17    buf    7.8    (last wk. 10) 18    oak    7.7    (last wk. 24) 19    min    7.4    (last wk. 17) 20    cin    7.3    (last wk. 18) 21    cle    7.2    (last wk. 25) 22    was    6.9    (last wk. 13) 23    mia    6.5    (last wk. 19) 24    sf    5.6    (last wk. 26) 25    jac    5.4    (last wk. 21) 26    ind    5.1    (last wk. 22) 27    den    5.0    (last wk. 29) 28    az    4.5    (last wk. 31) 29    stl    4.5    (last wk. 27) 30    car    3.1    (last wk. 32) 31    kc    2.5    (last wk. 28) 32    sea    2.4    (last wk. 30) My own statistical point spreads visitor/home/my points/the public’s opinion/difference ne    buf    -7.9    -8.5    0.6 sf    cin    5.6     2.5    3.1 hou    no    2.9    4    -1.1 nyg    phi    6.8    5    1.8 mia    cle    4.1    2.5    1.6 den    ten    7.9    7    0.9 det    min    -3.6    -3.5    -0.1 jac    car    -0.4    3.5    -3.9 kc    sd    13.1    14.5    -1.4 nyj    oak    -2.6    -3    0.4 bal    stl    -6.3    -4.5    -1.8 atl    tb    0.9    1.5    -0.6 az    sea    -0.2    -3.5    3.3 gb    chi    -1.2    -3.5    2.3 pit    ind    -5.7    -10.5    4.8 was    dal    5.2    5.5    -0.3 Game of the week: I have next to nothing this week, and pick under duress.   I’ll go with Indy to cover (but not to actually win at home) against Pittsburgh.   Indy actually scored 19 points against somebody, anybody, last week.   That's not quite true, the last TD was a joke, but the offense did get into field goal range four times.  Let’s put out one cheer that the free-fall is slowing, and so I’m hoping that whatever thing they have at quarterback is settling down week by week enough to do a dead cat bounce.   Everybody knows that Indy is dead and that they’ll have no shame in front of their home crowd, but maybe… pit    ind    -5.7    -10.5    4.8 last week:   3-3.
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]


    Hi Pauk_K,

    I don't know about other posters, but I would appreciate how you estimate or forecast numbers of wins in your rankings. I think I saw an explanation or your ranking method last year and it seemed to make sense at the time, but what I get out of your thread here makes me think it's just qualified subjective guesswork. So if you do haev a foundation for your tables I would like to hear it.
    Thanks for listening even if iot is only your forecast...seems fairly good to me.

    Anyone else have a methodology or forecast/rating system?

     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Warning:  if the Boston Globe's paywall goes up, my gift of my unique power  ratings goes down and moves elsewhere. 
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    before that happens, can we agree on where to go and woul be ideal if people kept their names.
     
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    In Response to Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week":
    [QUOTE]Bills will turn it over and the Pats won't.  That will be the difference.  I might take the Bills at 8.5 but the Pats win something like 27-20.  I wouldn't be surprised if this game is a little lower scoring than expected.
     
    RESPONSE: If the Bills turn it over, the Pats will crush them. Their only chance to keep the game close and/or win is to play error free ball, and get a couple of picks against Brady.

    This will be a good week to sort of gauge the mentality of this SD team.  I could absolutely see them letting KC keep it much closer than it ought it to, because SD knows if they play 20 good minutes they will win and we know SD isn't always the most game ready team.
     
    RESPONSE: Anything less than a blow-out win over the punch-less Chiefs will be an indictment against the Bolts.

    I think the 3 point spread on the OAK/NYJ game is very interesting.  Seems like there is some doubt about how the Jets will perform on the road against a somewhat respectable opponent.

    RESPONSE: This surprised me, too. The Jets seem like a great play, just giving up 3 points.

    Panthers seem like a lock to me.

    RESPONSE: Agreed.

    I don't see the Bears scoring enough points to stay with Rodgers, especially since they actually play on a real football field in Chicago now.
     
    RESPONSE: The Bears can score if their OL affords protection to Jay Cutler, once in a while. The beating Cutler took last week in New Orleans was absolutely brutal.

    Sounds like Vick may likely play which might be bad news for both teams.  Bad news for the Gmen because they love giving up huge plays to anyone but especially to Vick.  Bad news for the Eagles because 1 thing the Gmen are good at, knocking around the QB.
     
    RESPONSE: I don't see Vick playing against the Giants: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/20110921_Phil_Sheridan__No-brainer__Vick_should_sit_Sunday.html; but: http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-eagles/Kafka-takes-1st-team-snaps-Asante-casts-doubt-on-future.html  
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards[/QUOTE]
     
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    Re: WEEK THREE NFL PICKS, and "Game of the Week"

     Hernandez has been so good these past two weeks that I worry about our red zone offense. The Pats, I expect will move the ball between the 20's easily enough but Hernandez and Gronkowski are red zone beasts and I worry if one of them is out how will it effect the play of the other. I still expect a win but maybe the game will be closer than otherwise one would expect. Out of curiosity does anyone know how the Pats red zone zone offense since the Browns game last year compares to the rest of the league. I can't recall an offense being so efficient in the red zone, when they had to kick the field goal last sunday it was kind of shocking to me. I was sure they were going to score there (Branch did appear open to me but I only saw was CBS showed on the replay).
     

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