Still trying to recover from an awful Week Two...picks wise and, especially, Patriots wise. After giving all of us indigestion by laying such a stink bomb on us last Sunday, the Pats owe us one. They'll get the chance to redeem themselves in the "Game of the Week":

1.) (1-1) New England Patriots (+3) @ (1-1) Baltimore Ravens:  The Pats' "D" looks much improved over last year. But, much to our chagrin, the offense appears to have taken two steps back. The poor performance of the Pats' OL is the main reason, as Tom Brady hasn't looked comfortable in the pocket thus far. Much of what the Pats do in their passing game is based on timing...and the timing is off because Brady has not been given ample time to throw. Meanwhile, the Ravens' offense seems to be dramatically improved. QB Joe Flacco is playing with great confidence, and WR Torrie Smith is rapidly developing into one of the top deep threat WRs in the game. Add RB Ray Rice to the mix, and the Ravens look formidable. On defense, their strength is their secondary, led by FS Ed Reed, and their lovable SS, Bernard Pollard. Ray Lewis will be screaming, right along with those charming Raven fans. After what we saw from the Pats' last Sunday, can we really expect them to get it done in Baltimore?:                                                                                    PICK: Ravens;

2.) (1-1) N.Y. Giants @ (1-1) Carolina Panthers (+1): This should be a fun game to watch. The Giants were lucky to pull off an impropable comeback to beat Tampa Bay last week. Meanwhile, Carolina looked good in beating the Saints. The Giants can't run the ball, and their OL has about as many holes as Tom Brady's line in New England. Carolina QB Cam Newton should be able to buy enough time defeat the NY pass rush:                            PICK: Panthers;

3.) (1-1) St. Louis Rams (+7.5) @ (1-1) Chicago Bears: I've been getting burnt picking teams giving up a bunch of points via the spread all year. Still, I have to believe that the Bears will bounce back from that debacle in Green Bay last Thursday:                             PICK: Bears; 

4.) (1-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ (1-1) Dallas Cowboys: Thus far, parity is the rule in the NFL this season. Who knows what to expect from the up and down Cowboys?: PICK: Buccaneers; 

5.) (2-0) San Francisco 49ers @ (1-1) Minnesota Vikings (+7): The 49ers are one of the very few NFL teams to establish themselves as elite, thus far. The Vikings gave one away to the Colts last week. Turnovers will tell the tale this Sunday:                                  PICK: 49ers; 

6.) (1-1) Detroit Lions @ (0-2) Tennessee Titans (+3): Though the Lions are one dimensional, the Tians have no dimensions at all:                                                           PICK: Lions;

7.) (1-1) Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) @ (1-1) Washington Redskins: The 'Skins gabve one away to the Rams last week. Plus, they added injury to insult last Sunday, loosing their two top defensive players, Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, for the season:                 PICK: Bengals;

8.) (1-1) N.Y. Jets @ (1-1) Miami Dolphins (+3): The wheels fell off the Jets' band-wagon last week in Pittsburgh. But, the Dolphins don't have the QB or the WRs that the Steelers do:                                                                                                                     PICK: Jets; 

9.) (0-2) New Orleans Saints @ (0-2) Kansas City Chiefs (+9): Though the Saints are 0-2, they've put points on the board. The Chiefs are 0-2, losing both games in blow-outs: PICK: Saints;

10.) (1-1) Buffalo Bills @ (0-2) Cleveland Browns (+3): What a yawn-fest! The Browns should copyright this game, and sell it off as a guaranteed cure for insomniacs:            PICK: Browns;

11.) (0-2) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ (1-1) Indianapolis Colts: Got to go with Andrew Luck over Blaine Gabbert:                                                                                                PICK: Colts;

12.) (2-0) Philadelphia Eagles @ (2-0) Arizona Cardinals (+4): Kevin Kolb get a shot at revenge against his old team. With a win this week, the Cards can show that they're for real:                                                                                                                                 PICK: Cardinals;

13.) (2-0) Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ (2-0) San Diego Chargers: The Falcons will provide yet another example this week that the NFC is the superior conference:                       PICK: Falcons;

14.) (2-0) Houston Texans @ (1-1) Denver Broncos (+1.5): The Texans appear to be the best team in the AFC. Peyton Manning's had a rough Monday night in Atlanta. His passes lacked zip. Could it be...oh...never mind:                                                             PICK: Texans;  

15.) (1-1) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (0-2) Oakland Raiders (+5): Looks like a gift from Vegas:                                                                                                                              PICK: Steelers;

16.) (1-1) Green Bay Packers @ (1-1) Seattle Seahawks (+3.5): Seattle is tough at home. Who knows what to expect anymore in the parity driven NFL?:                            PICK: Packers.

BEST BETS: Steelers, Falcons, Lions.

 

           

In response to TexasPat's comment:

  TP, How about keeping a track of your weekly wins & losses ? Thanks look forward to your posts.

My week 3 power ratings and “game of the week”.

 

 

The Patriots were flying high a week ago.  The Patriots lose to a bad team - Arizona is still pretty bad in my rankings, but they get some credit.  The Patriots drop. 

 

 

One of the Patriots claims that the team had some bad practices.  Maybe it’s Hernandez.  Maybe Logan Mankins isn’t that good right now.  Maybe Wendell was never particularly good as a guard.  Maybe Brady can’t hit long balls with accuracy.  Also, maybe Arizona’s reputation of “Steelers West” is partially deserved, and maybe Kolb is better than he was a month ago.  New England chased Kolb all over the field and for some reason he didn’t toss four interceptions.  New England drops and Arizona rises, because any or all of these reasons would carry over to the week 3 Baltimore game for New England, and they would equally carry over to the Philly game for Arizona. 

 

 

On the other hand, maybe it was a trap game.  Note to self, I need to research some statistical numbers on trap games.  Maybe the Pats as a hurry-up team weren’t properly prepared for Hernandez going down.  Maybe scab refs are random number generators who occasionally take winning touchdowns away from teams.  These are reasons to suspect the outcome.  But then we have to suspect the Pats’ victories also.

 

 

With the Patriots rated as going 12-4 if the regular season restarted tomorrow, with the Elvises being one of the youngest teams in the NFL at this point, probably growing stronger as the season goes on, and with not much competition showing for the AFC East crown, it’s not exactly the end of the world right now.

 

 

In other news, Houston made a statement against an otherwise ok Jacksonville team.  Houston is just slightly atop the AFC on my power ratings.  Green Bay made a decent enough statement this week that no one should count them out just yet, beating my high expectations of them. 

 

 

1   sf   14.9   (last wk. 1)

 

2   gb   13.5   (last wk. 4)

 

3   hou   12.5   (last wk. 8)

 

4   ne   12.2   (last wk. 2)

 

5   bal   11.6   (last wk. 5)

 

6   atl   11.3   (last wk. 6)

 

7   sd   10.7   (last wk. 9)

 

8   dal   10.1   (last wk. 3)

 

9   no   10.0   (last wk. 7)

 

10   pit   9.7   (last wk. 16)

 

11   den   8.9   (last wk. 15)

 

12   sea   8.7   (last wk. 22)

 

13   nyg   8.4   (last wk. 10)

 

14   car   8.3   (last wk. 26)

 

15   det   8.3   (last wk. 13)

 

16   cin   8.2   (last wk. 23)

 

17   nyj   8.1   (last wk. 11)

 

18   phi   7.5   (last wk. 20)

 

19   chi   6.9   (last wk. 12)

 

20   min   6.9   (last wk. 17)

 

21   cle   6.6   (last wk. 21)

 

22   jac   6.5   (last wk. 14)

 

23   mia   6.2   (last wk. 29)

 

24   buf   5.3   (last wk. 31)

 

25   was   5.2   (last wk. 19)

 

26   tb   5.2   (last wk. 27)

 

27   az   5.2   (last wk. 28)

 

28   ten   4.9   (last wk. 25)

 

29   ind   4.5   (last wk. 30)

 

30   kc   4.1   (last wk. 18)

 

31   oak   3.8   (last wk. 24)

 

32   stl   2.1   (last wk. 32)

 

 

Last week’s game of the week:

 

San Francisco threatened to win by 15 points almost exactly as I predicted, but in the end they won by 8.  It’s almost a mirror image of Cleveland threatening to win by 6 points in week 1 exactly as predicted, but Philly squeaked out a 1 point victory.  That’s still a win for me against a ridiculous point spread, and so I’m an easy 2-0 for the season on games of the week against the point spread.  Overall, not as good for all picks: 7-6.  Give Vegas some credit.  In 2010 and 2011, I also had an excellent performance in my games of the week but not as good overall.  My target is 65% success for the year on games of the week versus the Las Vegas point spread, not so good on the lesser picks but well above 50%.

 

 

This coming week’s point spreads

 

Visitor / Home / My Points / The Gambling Public’s Opinion / Difference

 

 

nyg   car    1.9   -1.5   3.4

 

kc   no    13.3   9   4.3

 

cin   was    -2.6   4   -6.6

 

det   ten    -0.1   -3   2.9

 

sf   min    -4.1   -7   2.9

 

jac   ind    3.1   3   0.1

 

stl   chi    11.5   8.5   3.0

 

buf   cle    4.7   -3   7.7

 

tb   dal    9.0   7   2.0

 

nyj   mia    -0.1   -3   2.9

 

atl   sd    5.8   3   2.8

 

phi   az    -1.6   -4   2.4

 

hou   den    -1.9   0   -1.9

 

pit   oak    -4.2   -4.5   0.3

 

ne   bal    5.2   3   2.2

 

gb   sea    1.2   -3.5   4.7

 

 

My third week game of the week is Cleveland, at home, to either beat Buffalo or at least beat the points.  Cleveland has been playing almost well enough this season, both against Philadelphia that went on to beat Baltimore, and so-so against Cincinnati.  Rumors that Cleveland has no talent whatsoever weren’t true in preseason or in the first two weeks, so let’s try the same for week three.  I like home underdogs.  Buffalo is supposed to have lots of talent, but Buffalo versus the Jets seemed to be flatter than a pancake and the Jets looked pretty flat themselves this week.  Buffalo beating a bunny at home this past week proves only so much.  In preseason Buffalo looked flat.  Buffalo ended last year with an 0-8 bender.  Maybe Mr. Fitzpatrick really lost it last year and never got it back? 

 

 

Other picks:

 

 

Cincinnati plus points over Washington.  I have no respect for Saint Louis, and yet they beat Washington last week.  Whatever St. Louis did to this unknown quantity Robert Griffin III, the Cincinnati coaches will be happy to look at the film. 

 

 

I usually won’t touch the stuff where my forecast is less than a 6-point difference from the gambling public, unless I have no other choices.  Just glancing at the top of the remainder pile, Seattle historically has racked up a pretty big home field advantage.  We’ll see.

 

 

I post with my usual warning:  Gambling is for people who don’t understand mathematics.

 

Your stats might be overvaluing the saints , chiefs could have their coming out party this weekend...  Carolina is on the rise ... St Louis can't be 32nd if they're 1-1... Patriots are bouncing back in a big way... Steelers going against your 31 team should be a lock... Cleveland is 0-2 for a reason ...

Still working on my picks.  I like Newton on Thursday to run wild over tired depleted jints.

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In response to sod11's comment:

If you have the tools, you can gamble in Vegas, or you can gamble in the stock market.  However, almost no one has the tools, although millions of guys fool themselves into thinking they've got the system.  Usually their problem is lying to themselves about whether their system works -- failure to be brutally honest about any contrary data.  Furthermore, the stress of laying money down is bad for you, so much that it's always worth getting a regular job.  I've got my good system and I don't gamble with it, I just have a good time beating Vegas like a drum.  I also stay out of Wall Street day trading, I buy and hold for decades, although I'm good there too.

I agree with JintsFan.  You're trash. 

 

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Looks good, except the Pats game. Patriots beat the Ravens by 18. It's a 31-13 final. Ridley rushes for 90, and a td. Brady throws for 270 and 2 tds. Defense gets a sack fumble td. Flacco gets dominated.

 

Btw, I agree with Jints, and Paul...ban the Sod guy^

any result of the pats-ravens game wouldnt surprise me too much, it could be a close game, or one could blow the other out....i have the pats 24-21

1.) (1-1) New England Patriots (+3) @ (1-1) Baltimore Ravens: Until the Oline shows better                                                                       PICK: Ravens;

2.) (1-1) N.Y. Giants @ (1-1) Carolina Panthers (+1): Ron Rivera coaches good D against ELi's team

PICK: Panthers;

3.) (1-1) St. Louis Rams (+7.5) @ (1-1) Chicago Bears: Bears at home  PICK: Bears; 

4.) (1-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ (1-1) Dallas Cowboys: Too many points PICK: Buccaneers; 

5.) (2-0) San Francisco 49ers @ (1-1) Minnesota Vikings (+7): Best D in the league         PICK: 49ers; 

6.) (1-1) Detroit Lions @ (0-2) Tennessee Titans (+3):PICK: Lions;

7.) (1-1) Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) @ (1-1) Washington Redskins::      PICK: Bengals;

8.) (1-1) N.Y. Jets @ (1-1) Miami Dolphins (+3):                         PICK: Jets; 

9.) (0-2) New Orleans Saints @ (0-2) Kansas City Chiefs (+9): aints are cursed PICK: Chefs;

10.) (1-1) Buffalo Bills @ (0-2) Cleveland Browns (+3): Buffalo< i wont pick Cle. until they win a game PICK: Bills;

11.) (0-2) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ (1-1) Indianapolis Colts: PICK: Colts;

12.) (2-0) Philadelphia Eagles @ (2-0) Arizona Cardinals (+4): It would be just like Cards to lose to PHilly  after shocking your world                  PICK: Eagles;

13.) (2-0) Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ (2-0) San Diego Chargers: No Michael Turner, No Peyton serving up horrible passes in another classic chokefest of his. Rivers is playing great, because the D is providing pressure, getting him the ball alot. Denver is all hype, Bolts are steady so far, with playing possesion football. Bolts are better than yours this year, sorry               PICK: Bolts;

14.) (2-0) Houston Texans @ (1-1) Denver Broncos (+1.5): The Texans appear to be the best team in the AFC. Not! PICK: Texans;  

15.) (1-1) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (0-2) Oakland Raiders (+5): PICK: Steelers;

16.) (1-1) Green Bay Packers @ (1-1) Seattle Seahawks (+3.5): PICK: Packers.

BEST BETS: RAVENS.

 

           

 

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In response to JintsFan's comment:

In response to JintsFan's comment:

yup, we agree on that one jintsfan, that guy is a piece of trash.

Ravens, Giants, Rams, Bucs, 49ers, Lions, Redskins, Jets, Saints, Bills, Colts, Cards, Falcons, Texans, Steelers, Packers

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(1-1) N.Y. Giants @ (1-1) Carolina Panthers (+1): This should be a fun game to watch. The Giants were lucky to pull off an impropable comeback to beat Tampa Bay last week. Meanwhile, Carolina looked good in beating the Saints. The Giants can't run the ball, and their OL has about as many holes as Tom Brady's line in New England. Carolina QB Cam Newton should be able to buy enough time defeat the NY pass rush:                            PICK: Panthers;

Jints...you stated:

i dont disagree with ur panthers pick but not b/c of the reasons u cite; its because the gmen are decimated by injuries to key personnel.. .down 3 backliners and now this game no bradshaw, nicks, diehl or hixon...thats brutal...if jints are healthy? cam and the panthers are a bump in the road

RESPONSE: Wow...were we both out to lunch on this one! Terrific performance by the Giants last night...congrats. It just goes to show how important good OL play is. Without it, a QB, an offense, can do nothing. Great job by the Giants' lumberjacks up front. They made RB Andre Brown look like a star...and gave Eli Manning volumes of time to pick the Panthers' apart. The G-men brought their "A" game to Carolina last night. 

 

2.) (1-1) N.Y. Giants @ (1-1) Carolina Panthers (+1): This should be a fun game to watch. The Giants were lucky to pull off an impropable comeback to beat Tampa Bay last week. Meanwhile, Carolina looked good in beating the Saints. The Giants can't run the ball, and their OL has about as many holes as Tom Brady's line in New England. Carolina QB Cam Newton should be able to buy enough time defeat the NY pass rush:                            PICK: Panthers;

 

 

Carolina looked AWFUL last night.  That was like a scrimmage for the Giants....

A quick software run bumps the Giants up from #13 to #8 in my rankings.  Carolina drops from #14 to #23. 

The Giants also played a closer to even contest at home versus Tampa Bay, and a losing effort at home versus Dallas.  They haven't exactly been superman until this one game.

 

serious doubts about cam Newton .  the stage was set for him to show his talent and or leadership last night and he was schooled by Eli . Newton could be reading too much of his press and has some prima donna going on.  Lame. 

originally picked giants but then switched because of the Thurs night effect...  Carolina turned out to be the no-show. Moving on.

pats ,rams, bucs,  49ers, lions, skins, phins, chiefs, steel, Texans , pack , falcons , cards, bills, colts.

taking the points against saints cowboys and bears...  three teams that are enigmas or shells of their former selves.  Looking at pats ravens, I see an improved ne tram going against same Baltimore team.  Brady refocuses better than anybody and the loss last week could help this team.  hype favors team that executes... Go pats.

 

last week 10-5-1 ats.  Season 17-14-1.

In response to coolade2's comment:
serious doubts about cam Newton .  the stage was set for him to show his talent and or leadership last night and he was schooled by Eli . Newton could be reading too much of his press and has some prima donna going on.  Lame.

RESPONSE: Amen, brother! Want to read something funny? Newton pulled the "they didn't beat us, we beat ourselves" card...much like Clay Matthews did after the Giants crushed his Packers in the play-offs. Hey Cam...36-7 was the final score. Just shut up!: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/21/cam-newton-pulls-the-they-didnt-beat-us-we-beat-ourselves-card/  

originally picked giants but then switched because of the Thurs night effect...  Carolina turned out to be the no-show. Moving on.

RESPONSE: almost reversed field on this game myself. But, since we can no longer edit...why bother?

pats rams bucks, 49ers lions, skins, phins, chiefs, steel, Texans , pack , falcons , cards, bills, colts.

RESPONSE: Pick games opposite of me, and you'll do fine...LOL!!

taking the points against saints cowboys and bears...  three teams that are enigmas or shells of their former selves.  Looking at pats ravens, I see an improved ne tram going against same Baltimore team.  Brady refocuses better than anybody and the loss last week could help this team.  hype favors team that executes... Go pats.

RESPONSE: Brady is not the main reason why the Pats are struggling. Poor offensive line play and poor offensive game plans and adjustments are the leading culprits. Though the Pats' defense has improved from last year, their offense appears to have taken two steps back. 

last week 10-5-1 ats.  Season 17-14-1.

RESPONSE: Great job so far, Cool!

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