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Welker vs Amendola Metrics

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    After the signing I read that Amendola had the shortest yards per catch in the NFL for a starting receiver and that no one had caught more balls closer to the line of scrimage. Which would hurt the "Amendola will be more diverse and play on the outside better" theory. Now I don't agree with this feeling or thought because I DO think we will use his size, youth and better size to be a little more diverse than Welker was. But it is interesting that this guy basically was worse than Welker in terms of getting down the field.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    First, I don't care what Rusty says. I'm just talking about Wes vs Amendola. You and Rusty can beef all night long for all I care. I'll say my peice and then I'm going out because it's Friday and I have better things to do.

    1.) Mine are taken from splits on SI.com, ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, and Yahoo.com (IIRC they have them too). They are readily available to all. Where are yours from?

    2.) There are two components to competing on the edge. Size and top speed. 5'11 to 5'9" makes a difference -- a big difference. Saying it doesn't flies in the face of the last 30 years of aerial football man. Two inches traditionally translates across the body, meaning longer arms, bigger hands, a wider torso. Even though both Wes and Amendola had 30 inch jumps, Amendola is going to have a percieved 4-6 inch advantage (or more if he is a freak) vertically because of this, and that will translate to balls slightly outside the frame (cue SB46 video of Wes being a couple inches away from having an easily securable catch). 

    3.) Deion Branch was a whole lot faster than Welker. When you have top speed you can still run deep routes even if your height isn't there. Just like some slower WRs will run deep routes based purely on their size (see Jackson from SD). Amendola is faster too. Neither of them are as quick as Wes but that is a given. I've seen Welker run down from behind by 43 defensive ends over the long haul. He just doesn't have the top speed to generate separation after 10-15 yards or so, he relies on his elite quickness to get a few steps in short and then loses himself in the mix after the catch. No one has been better at that in his time in the NFL. 

    It's just a fact that Wes is quick not fast, not an opinion. But if you need numbers ... courtesy of NFLDraftScouts.com.

     

    Amedola 4.58 40yd 4.25 Shuttle

    Welker   4.65 40yd 4.02 Shuttle

    One is faster the other is quicker.

    Though if you have actually watched both players it should be apparent to the naked eye. A 10th of a second matters on routes longer than 10-15 yards. It makes a player more useful on the edge. It is separation. Just like two inches of frame size, which normally carries over to longer arms, bigger hands, etc, makes a difference.

    So let's not pretend that he is something that he is not, which is what you are doing. I get you are sore because "your guy" got away. But you are building Wes into something he wasn't. He was the premier slot reciever in the NFL. Unfortunately, NE already re-upped the premier slot TE making Wes a redundant piece, and limiting his value to the team. 

    In a perfect world, they get to keep everyone. They stuck a value on him. I happen to agree with that, and have been vocal about it for a few seasons.

    What Rusty is saying about Amendola's potential versatility is what every outlet that has a couple brain cells is saying. It's just out there. He has more upside in this system, at his age, as it is run now and how BB evidently would like to run it going forward.  

    4.) Also, think what you want, post-non-contextualized numbers .... NE doesn't run Welker on long routes, that is enough proof. 38 catches out of 2014 routes, even if those numbers look really wonky considering I'm seeing him catch about 4 balls a season on deep routes on MY splits, is really really low. 

    Heck, Amendola has almost as many 20+ (in the air, not including YAC) rec over the last few complete years in about half as many games.  

    5.) They run wierd stack patterns to keep him inside. They run odd sets where Hernandez or Stevan Ridley, or Vereen are split out wide. They tried to bring Edelman in, starting him OVER Welker to begin last season, and a lot of Edelman's time was spent lined at X. Wes has a small frame and is really outsized by even average corners out there.

    He isn't suited to play outside. 

    6.) And yes, they BOTH have primarily played out of the slot, but Amendola has far more upside as an X/Y combo than Welker, who is basically just a Y type WR. The fact that NE paid Amendola basically the same amount that they would have paid Welker (I know about the guaranteed dollars) should demonstrate that they see some value that equates. I don't assume that value is as another slot log-jam. They probably want to use Amendola the way they've tried using Edelman. 



    +10000000

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to tanbass' comment:

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

     But here is my problem.  Rusty comes on here from the get go, demisnishing Welkers production for the team, and saying Amendola does all these other things better.  HE LIES!!  His facts aren't true! And if anyone disagress he treats them like dirt, tells them they don't know anything about football, blah, blah, blah.  He has an agenda here, the Pats can do no wrong.  He acts like the high and mighty here, bashing others all the time. 

     



    Do yourself a huge favor, and just put that lonely little attention starved f-cktard on ignore. I find the forums much more enjoyable w/o having to listen to his childish BS in every freaking thread.....It never changes.

     

    Brady sucks(post season), the shotgun is the reason we suck, the entire league is against us, the world is against BB & jealous too, Everyone here attacks him first, people follow him around the forum, blah blah blah....day after day after day. Ignore is your friend bro!!

    Rusty leads a very pathetic little life where he spends ungodly amounts of time in a football forum, telling a bunch of starngers how smart he is, how he "owns" people during arguments, how great his job is, how uneducated everyone else is....it's beyond pathetic. Whats really scary is that he can't see how much 99% of this message board thinks he's an absolute tool, and he's the joke of the forum. Don't watse your time feeding his need for attention.....let it go.....if everyone did that, the little annoying gnat would leave.



    Wonderfully written!! Although I must say I disagree with the part where you say/mention feeding his attention just kind of keeps him around. Truthfully he just won't go away - and trust me the place has turned into a ghost town because of him - good posters aren't here anymore. They grew tired of his crap.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     


    Well, for one ... most of those reps are probably in the stack formation NE loves to use to mask the fact that they really have two slot type recievers in Hern and Welker. So essentially, Wes is a slot, even if he isn't nominally in that setup. And even when they run him on the outside, he's running a slot tree. He doesn't run ins, hitches, etc, just short comebacks, slants, picks, screens, and a "go" if there is no one behind the corner.

     

    Amendola, *does* do more than that from the X/Z position. I can literally show you video demonstrating it.

     

    Also, your numbers are wierd ... here is what I have from "splits" on three different websites for 2012. I'm not sure. At any rate, being targeted just 38 times out of 2014 routes on "deep" passes, I assume over 20, is really not a whole lot at all. Neither guy is a deep route runner. But DA has better potential there. Sure he isn't as quick as Wes, but he is bigger, stronger, and faster. So he might not be "uncoverable" in the slot like Wes is, but he should be more diverse within what NE hopes to do, which is kick Hernandez inside where he can assist in blocking and make the 2TE setup really sing.

    Long/Intermediate Passes - 10+

    DA: 13 rec 309 yds 

    WW: 14 rec 359 yds

    Long Passes Only - 20+

    DA: 4 rec 138 yds

    WW: 3 rec 99 yds

    Keeping in mind that Welker was targeted 175 times to Amendola's 101, you have to see, they almost never ran Wes on "long routes" as those three were likely just "go" routes from opportunity (spotting that the safety had completely left the top naked). 

    Wes is elite in the slot, and on short routes, but his height is a major disadvantage running outside routes; he77, we've even seen BB try to bring Edelman in more just because he adds that dimension, though Edelman is so much worse at everything else and is injured all the time. 

    Neither guy is a deep threat, but Amendola can do more for NE on that front based purely on his ability to create separation after 10 yards, and his height/wingspan to compete outside his frame. 

     




     

    Well I provided numbers and a link to back up my numbers. I'm sorry if they are weird but thats what they report.  And it is from a legit site, referenced by a ton of media as well as analysist.

    The point is I posted and backed up my claims with numbers and references.  Rusty makes comments that are his opinion, they are not facts, yet he tends to treat them as such, and then bashes people if they don't agree.  He spins everything others say is true, he tows the company, he has an agenda here.  

    No you mention 3 different web sites, care to post links that contradicts my numbers?

    And your other statements are your opinion, yet you are writing them like they are facts.

    Welker is 5'9, Amendola is 5'11".  I really don't think two inches is going to be a huge factor here in a deep pass route.  If it was like 5'9" compared to 6'2" then yes, I would agree.  Yet I have seen where Deion Branch is able to go deep and he is the same height as Welker.  Come on, wingspan, separation... If that was the case then Matthew Slater would be out running the deeper routes instead of Amendola as his height, wingspan is greater then Amendolas.

     

     

     

    First, I don't care what Rusty says. I'm just talking about Wes vs Amendola. You and Rusty can beef all night long for all I care. I'll say my peice and then I'm going out because it's Friday and I have better things to do.

    1.) Mine are taken from splits on SI.com, ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, and Yahoo.com (IIRC they have them too). They are readily available to all. Where are yours from?

    2.) There are two components to competing on the edge. Size and top speed. 5'11 to 5'9" makes a difference -- a big difference. Saying it doesn't flies in the face of the last 30 years of aerial football man. Two inches traditionally translates across the body, meaning longer arms, bigger hands, a wider torso. Even though both Wes and Amendola had 30 inch jumps, Amendola is going to have a percieved 4-6 inch advantage (or more if he is a freak) vertically because of this, and that will translate to balls slightly outside the frame (cue SB46 video of Wes being a couple inches away from having an easily securable catch). 

    3.) Deion Branch was a whole lot faster than Welker. When you have top speed you can still run deep routes even if your height isn't there. Just like some slower WRs will run deep routes based purely on their size (see Jackson from SD). Amendola is faster too. Neither of them are as quick as Wes but that is a given. I've seen Welker run down from behind by 43 defensive ends over the long haul. He just doesn't have the top speed to generate separation after 10-15 yards or so, he relies on his elite quickness to get a few steps in short and then loses himself in the mix after the catch. No one has been better at that in his time in the NFL. 

    It's just a fact that Wes is quick not fast, not an opinion. But if you need numbers ... courtesy of NFLDraftScouts.com.

     

    Amedola 4.58 40yd 4.25 Shuttle

    Welker   4.65 40yd 4.02 Shuttle

    One is faster the other is quicker.

    Though if you have actually watched both players it should be apparent to the naked eye. A 10th of a second matters on routes longer than 10-15 yards. It makes a player more useful on the edge. It is separation. Just like two inches of frame size, which normally carries over to longer arms, bigger hands, etc, makes a difference.

    So let's not pretend that he is something that he is not, which is what you are doing. I get you are sore because "your guy" got away. But you are building Wes into something he wasn't. He was the premier slot reciever in the NFL. Unfortunately, NE already re-upped the premier slot TE making Wes a redundant piece, and limiting his value to the team. 

    In a perfect world, they get to keep everyone. They stuck a value on him. I happen to agree with that, and have been vocal about it for a few seasons.

    What Rusty is saying about Amendola's potential versatility is what every outlet that has a couple brain cells is saying. It's just out there. He has more upside in this system, at his age, as it is run now and how BB evidently would like to run it going forward.  

    4.) Also, think what you want, post-non-contextualized numbers .... NE doesn't run Welker on long routes, that is enough proof. 38 catches out of 2014 routes, even if those numbers look really wonky considering I'm seeing him catch about 4 balls a season on deep routes on MY splits, is really really low. 

    Heck, Amendola has almost as many 20+ (in the air, not including YAC) rec over the last few complete years in about half as many games.  

    5.) They run wierd stack patterns to keep him inside. They run odd sets where Hernandez or Stevan Ridley, or Vereen are split out wide. They tried to bring Edelman in, starting him OVER Welker to begin last season, and a lot of Edelman's time was spent lined at X. Wes has a small frame and is really outsized by even average corners out there.

    He isn't suited to play outside. 

    6.) And yes, they BOTH have primarily played out of the slot, but Amendola has far more upside as an X/Y combo than Welker, who is basically just a Y type WR. The fact that NE paid Amendola basically the same amount that they would have paid Welker (I know about the guaranteed dollars) should demonstrate that they see some value that equates. I don't assume that value is as another slot log-jam. They probably want to use Amendola the way they've tried using Edelman. 




    Nice post. Agree, height does make a difference in not only deep patterns, but all patterns. I can see us using Amendola differently than we use Wes and with the tight ends we have inside it may make for a better offense...of course Amendola will have to stay healthy for that to happen though.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to mthurl's comment:


    Nice post. Agree, height does make a difference in not only deep patterns, but all patterns. I can see us using Amendola differently than we use Wes and with the tight ends we have inside it may make for a better offense...of course Amendola will have to stay healthy for that to happen though.

     



    I hope they can use him on the outside but nothing that he has done so far in his career shows that he can. He hasn't up to this point of his career.  Does he have size, speed, strength to do so?  I don't know, maybe.  Is he a better route runner then Welker, I don't think so.  I see them using him much as the same as Welker, maybe spread him out a few times more during the game??  We will have to wait and see.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to kansaspatriot's comment:

    Here's the ony metric that matters. WW played poker with BB, and lost. Thank you for your service, and we won't forget you dropped that pass in the SB.  See ya

    Bill Belichick and the Patriots vs Wes Welker.  Who wins this poker match?




    We all lost on that one.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from NOISE. Show NOISE's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to TFB12's comment:

    Let me just put this here from the thread I linked to above..

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

    Fun video for sure. It will be exciting to see what he can do in NE and see what the Pats have in store for him.

    Btw, he can get down field at times but that video shows how easily he is tackled and his yards after catch are not impressive. Certainly not better then Welkers.


    I know I will get slammed here for mentioning Welker but Rusty has gone on record over and over, post after post, thread after thread telling untruths just to push his agenda here, tow the company line and push Amendola and berate Welker.

    But the things he says over and over are not true.

    Rusty has said Welker was basically only a slot WR.  That Amendola lines up on the outside a lot more, that Amendola lines up in more positions then Welker has.  That Amendola runs more screen passes and can be better at running those.

    Well let me spew the facts here... 

    Since 2009 Danny Amendola has ran a higher percentage of his routes from the slot (85.3%) then Welker has (73.8%)

    While Rusty also likes to make a big deal how Amendola is a better deep receiver then Welker is.  Since 2009 out of 2104 routes ran Welker has been targeted as a deep receiver  38 times with 17 receptions for 655 yards.  An average of 38.5 yards per deep reception.  Out of 1085 routes ran Amendola was targeted 18 times with 5 receptions for 163 yards.  An average of 32.6 yards per reception.

    In another thread Rust said how much better the Pats will do with adding Amendola into screen passes, something Rusty said Welker didn't do much.  In 2012 Welker was targeted 22 time on screen passes while Amondola just 7.

    As you can see Rusty just throw's out numbers and stats as well as false statements.  The things he says is just not true.  He has an agenda here regardless if what he says is true or not.  How can people believe a word he says?

     

     



     



    HaHa!  Picture means a thousand words TFB!  Right on here....you guys are funny....

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from NOISE. Show NOISE's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    stats are for losers per the words of BB!  The one stat that doesn't lie, is the EYE test.  WELKER has it ALL over Amendola.....period.   We'll see how it goes this upcoming season, but the O will take a hit wihout WELKER.  

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to UD6's comment:

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     

    Has anyone come across any stats to compare these two? I haven't seen much in the area of stats barring the drop rate which Amendola is clearly superior.

    But, I was wondering mostly about amount of targets and any other data we can look at to compare.

     

     




    This is kind of funny.  After all of the railing you done on those who question the welker/amendola decision, you don't even know the statistics to support your position.  Rusty at his most honest. 

     

    Argue first - learn later.  I'll give Russ this.  he is the ultimate Belichick supporter even when he really doesn't understand Belichick's decisions.




    You nailed it UD6.  His arguments, everything he has argued over the last couple weeks was shut down once I proved with number that everything he has been saying were not true. He is a fraud!  It was all empty lies he has been spouting off.  It was in fact just his opinion which he was throwing around acting like everything he was saying was correct.  This thread is funny, to see once I presented the numbers he went into panic mode, his words have been forever tarnished now.  He has been very quiet the last day ever since I provided numbers, facts to debunk everything he has been saying.  I am sure he has been looking over every inch of the internet trying to find numbers, any numbers that can back up his false claims and he hasn't found any yet.  He won't find any.  He is a fraud!!

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     


    Ahh, thanks Z. Appreciate your contrrbuting that.  What I don't appreciate is a Welker fanboy-tinged analysis.  After you post those, it's clear Brady to 28 year old Amendola here with a loaded cast and Brady is going to prove a great ROI as opposed to Brady to a 32 year old Welker.

     


    Hahahahaha!  Hahahahaha! Let me catch my breath!!  Hahahaha!

    So, let me get this straight....  TRUE facts that I researched, found and provided links for are now considered Welker fanboy-tinged analysis! 

    Hahahaha!  What a fraud you are Rusty!!

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to zbellino's comment:


    That's the only reason I question the signing. NE has too many fragile players and have added another. I think Amendola is probably going to do what they envisioned Edelman doing, kind of like a Victor Cruz type role, where he plays outside and inside combo in a way that Welker really just cannot.



    Fair enough.  I hope he can, even though he hasn't done anything to show me he can.  Hopefully they can turn him into that type of player because IF they can and he can stay on the field then it will be great.  Time for BB to work his magic!!

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:



    You didn't provide jack squat. Z did.

     

    Isn't it somewhat funny that you, Prolate, etc, all the Welker lovers and Brady lovers, etc, are also newer fans?

    No one can say wat their first game was, talk about this gteam pre Brady in 2001 or anything.

    Not a coincidence. You guys started following this team after in 2001.

    I can always tell who the long time, loyal diehards are.   No one cares about Welker's 100 catches per year if he's dropping balls at key times or not part of a winner. He had NUMEROUS chances, mostly in 2007, 2011 and 2012.

     



    Numbers don't lie!!  I gave you the numbers!  Now spin everything else anyway you want.  Z can give his opinion but the numbers are based on actual production from a given spot.  Just for kicks, does zbellino watch the games live or have the coaches film off NFL network?

    And it doesn't matter when people started to follow the Patriots.  It has no bearing on anything that's relevent here other than maybe knowing what BB has done with the team over the years.  I watched BB coach the Brown and I have watched him coach the Patriots the whole time he has been here. 

    So I guess none of Amendola's numbers matter since he hasn't been part of a winner?  Guess what, while he has been there they have never had a winning season. 

    Man, your comments are horrible, they have no merit.  You are just throwing out garbage, as usual.  WHAT IS YOUR POINT??

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to TFB12's comment:

    In response to kansaspatriot's comment:

     

    Here's the ony metric that matters. WW played poker with BB, and lost. Thank you for your service, and we won't forget you dropped that pass in the SB.  See ya

     

     

    Bill Belichick and the Patriots vs Wes Welker.  Who wins this poker match?




    We all lost on that one.

     




    Dang dude, you do some good work

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Brady2Amendola. Show Brady2Amendola's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/63317/stats-to-know-welker-vs-amendola

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    Here's the stat I like:

    Amendola’s success rate is considerably higher at 21.9 receptions per drop.

    Welker’s 11 drops last season were second-most in the NFL. Amendola’s drop rate (2.1 percent of targets dropped) rated second-lowest in the NFL.

     

    Sounds like BB made the right call

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to kansaspatriot's comment:

    Here's the stat I like:

    Amendola’s success rate is considerably higher at 21.9 receptions per drop.

    Welker’s 11 drops last season were second-most in the NFL. Amendola’s drop rate (2.1 percent of targets dropped) rated second-lowest in the NFL.

     

    Sounds like BB made the right call



    Couple of things that kind of may distort that stat. One Welker didn't play in a cozy dome, Amendola did. It's probably a little debatable that Tom throws the ball a little harder than Bradford did. And do they include playoff games into that equation? Because if they do, then those are played in cold weather, against good defenses. And lastly, Welker has caught a lot more balls...been on the field much more...that has to wear down your body, concentration, etc...compared to what Amendola has had to deal with.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     


    What ARE you talking about. 

     

    1.) I'm not backing Welker. I'm saying Amendola is a better fit. He's been an expensive spare part since they drafted Hernandez. And I've been saying it FOR YEARS! I mean, I've literally been calling for letting Welker go, and getting someone who can run a post or fly route, and getting told it was nonsense, and that "deep threats" were meaningless for YEARS. Years. 

    2.) I've been a fan a lot longer than that. I have a hat signed by Irving Fryar and Ronnie Lippett and a host of other guys sitting in a storage box back home with all my old football gear. My first game was 1987 vs the Indianapolis Colts in Sullivan Stadium. When was yours?

    3.) I basically have called Welker out for being a choke artist close to 100 times. The dropped catch .... you know the one that goes with his other 15-20 drops he has each season?

    4.) Just because I recognize that Welker does some things amazingly well, for instance getting open from the slot, doesn't mean that I think he is a good fit for what NE needs, or that I'm a Welker fanboy. 



    hey Z, who are you arguing with?  I'm confused?  Nonetheless, I have some problems with your comments, regardless who you are addressing.

    You totally lost me and lost all credit with this statement concerning Welker...

    "He's been an expensive spare part since they drafted Hernandez. And I've been saying it FOR YEARS!"

    That has to be one of the very worst statements I have read on here outside of Rusty's posts.  Hernandez?  You mean the guy who can't stay on the field either? He has had one solid year and thank goodness Welker was still on the team because somebody had to participate in getting the production for the team, it certainly wasn't going to be Hernandez.

    Hahaha! Since you brought up drops, lets talk about those.  I guess Calvin Johnson is pretty bad because he dropped 1 few then Welker and they both had almost identically the same number of catchable passes thrown to each of them...  Welker 133, Johnson 136.
    'Obviously it stands to reason that the more opportunity you have to drop a ball, the more balls you will drop.' And Welker is no where near the top of the list of highest drop rate receivers.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to kansaspatriot's comment:

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

    In response to kansaspatriot's comment:

     

    Here's the ony metric that matters. WW played poker with BB, and lost. Thank you for your service, and we won't forget you dropped that pass in the SB.  See ya

     

     

    Bill Belichick and the Patriots vs Wes Welker.  Who wins this poker match?




    We all lost on that one.

     

     




    Dang dude, you do some good work

     




    Hahaha, thanks man!

     
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