In response to zbellino's comment:
In response to TFB12's comment:
In response to zbellino's comment:
Well, for one ... most of those reps are probably in the stack formation NE loves to use to mask the fact that they really have two slot type recievers in Hern and Welker. So essentially, Wes is a slot, even if he isn't nominally in that setup. And even when they run him on the outside, he's running a slot tree. He doesn't run ins, hitches, etc, just short comebacks, slants, picks, screens, and a "go" if there is no one behind the corner.
Amendola, *does* do more than that from the X/Z position. I can literally show you video demonstrating it.
Also, your numbers are wierd ... here is what I have from "splits" on three different websites for 2012. I'm not sure. At any rate, being targeted just 38 times out of 2014 routes on "deep" passes, I assume over 20, is really not a whole lot at all. Neither guy is a deep route runner. But DA has better potential there. Sure he isn't as quick as Wes, but he is bigger, stronger, and faster. So he might not be "uncoverable" in the slot like Wes is, but he should be more diverse within what NE hopes to do, which is kick Hernandez inside where he can assist in blocking and make the 2TE setup really sing.
Long/Intermediate Passes - 10+
DA: 13 rec 309 yds
WW: 14 rec 359 yds
Long Passes Only - 20+
DA: 4 rec 138 yds
WW: 3 rec 99 yds
Keeping in mind that Welker was targeted 175 times to Amendola's 101, you have to see, they almost never ran Wes on "long routes" as those three were likely just "go" routes from opportunity (spotting that the safety had completely left the top naked).
Wes is elite in the slot, and on short routes, but his height is a major disadvantage running outside routes; he77, we've even seen BB try to bring Edelman in more just because he adds that dimension, though Edelman is so much worse at everything else and is injured all the time.
Neither guy is a deep threat, but Amendola can do more for NE on that front based purely on his ability to create separation after 10 yards, and his height/wingspan to compete outside his frame.
Well I provided numbers and a link to back up my numbers. I'm sorry if they are weird but thats what they report. And it is from a legit site, referenced by a ton of media as well as analysist.
The point is I posted and backed up my claims with numbers and references. Rusty makes comments that are his opinion, they are not facts, yet he tends to treat them as such, and then bashes people if they don't agree. He spins everything others say is true, he tows the company, he has an agenda here.
No you mention 3 different web sites, care to post links that contradicts my numbers?
And your other statements are your opinion, yet you are writing them like they are facts.
Welker is 5'9, Amendola is 5'11". I really don't think two inches is going to be a huge factor here in a deep pass route. If it was like 5'9" compared to 6'2" then yes, I would agree. Yet I have seen where Deion Branch is able to go deep and he is the same height as Welker. Come on, wingspan, separation... If that was the case then Matthew Slater would be out running the deeper routes instead of Amendola as his height, wingspan is greater then Amendolas.
First, I don't care what Rusty says. I'm just talking about Wes vs Amendola. You and Rusty can beef all night long for all I care. I'll say my peice and then I'm going out because it's Friday and I have better things to do.
1.) Mine are taken from splits on SI.com, ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, and Yahoo.com (IIRC they have them too). They are readily available to all. Where are yours from?
2.) There are two components to competing on the edge. Size and top speed. 5'11 to 5'9" makes a difference -- a big difference. Saying it doesn't flies in the face of the last 30 years of aerial football man. Two inches traditionally translates across the body, meaning longer arms, bigger hands, a wider torso. Even though both Wes and Amendola had 30 inch jumps, Amendola is going to have a percieved 4-6 inch advantage (or more if he is a freak) vertically because of this, and that will translate to balls slightly outside the frame (cue SB46 video of Wes being a couple inches away from having an easily securable catch).
3.) Deion Branch was a whole lot faster than Welker. When you have top speed you can still run deep routes even if your height isn't there. Just like some slower WRs will run deep routes based purely on their size (see Jackson from SD). Amendola is faster too. Neither of them are as quick as Wes but that is a given. I've seen Welker run down from behind by 43 defensive ends over the long haul. He just doesn't have the top speed to generate separation after 10-15 yards or so, he relies on his elite quickness to get a few steps in short and then loses himself in the mix after the catch. No one has been better at that in his time in the NFL.
It's just a fact that Wes is quick not fast, not an opinion. But if you need numbers ... courtesy of NFLDraftScouts.com.
Amedola 4.58 40yd 4.25 Shuttle
Welker 4.65 40yd 4.02 Shuttle
One is faster the other is quicker.
Though if you have actually watched both players it should be apparent to the naked eye. A 10th of a second matters on routes longer than 10-15 yards. It makes a player more useful on the edge. It is separation. Just like two inches of frame size, which normally carries over to longer arms, bigger hands, etc, makes a difference.
So let's not pretend that he is something that he is not, which is what you are doing. I get you are sore because "your guy" got away. But you are building Wes into something he wasn't. He was the premier slot reciever in the NFL. Unfortunately, NE already re-upped the premier slot TE making Wes a redundant piece, and limiting his value to the team.
In a perfect world, they get to keep everyone. They stuck a value on him. I happen to agree with that, and have been vocal about it for a few seasons.
What Rusty is saying about Amendola's potential versatility is what every outlet that has a couple brain cells is saying. It's just out there. He has more upside in this system, at his age, as it is run now and how BB evidently would like to run it going forward.
4.) Also, think what you want, post-non-contextualized numbers .... NE doesn't run Welker on long routes, that is enough proof. 38 catches out of 2014 routes, even if those numbers look really wonky considering I'm seeing him catch about 4 balls a season on deep routes on MY splits, is really really low.
Heck, Amendola has almost as many 20+ (in the air, not including YAC) rec over the last few complete years in about half as many games.
5.) They run wierd stack patterns to keep him inside. They run odd sets where Hernandez or Stevan Ridley, or Vereen are split out wide. They tried to bring Edelman in, starting him OVER Welker to begin last season, and a lot of Edelman's time was spent lined at X. Wes has a small frame and is really outsized by even average corners out there.
He isn't suited to play outside.
6.) And yes, they BOTH have primarily played out of the slot, but Amendola has far more upside as an X/Y combo than Welker, who is basically just a Y type WR. The fact that NE paid Amendola basically the same amount that they would have paid Welker (I know about the guaranteed dollars) should demonstrate that they see some value that equates. I don't assume that value is as another slot log-jam. They probably want to use Amendola the way they've tried using Edelman.
Nice post. Agree, height does make a difference in not only deep patterns, but all patterns. I can see us using Amendola differently than we use Wes and with the tight ends we have inside it may make for a better offense...of course Amendola will have to stay healthy for that to happen though.
That's the only reason I question the signing. NE has too many fragile players and have added another. I think Amendola is probably going to do what they envisioned Edelman doing, kind of like a Victor Cruz type role, where he plays outside and inside combo in a way that Welker really just cannot.