Welker vs Amendola Metrics

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to TFB12's comment:

    Let me just put this here from the thread I linked to above..

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

    Fun video for sure. It will be exciting to see what he can do in NE and see what the Pats have in store for him.

    Btw, he can get down field at times but that video shows how easily he is tackled and his yards after catch are not impressive. Certainly not better then Welkers.


    I know I will get slammed here for mentioning Welker but Rusty has gone on record over and over, post after post, thread after thread telling untruths just to push his agenda here, tow the company line and push Amendola and berate Welker.

    But the things he says over and over are not true.

    Rusty has said Welker was basically only a slot WR.  That Amendola lines up on the outside a lot more, that Amendola lines up in more positions then Welker has.  That Amendola runs more screen passes and can be better at running those.

    Well let me spew the facts here... 

    Since 2009 Danny Amendola has ran a higher percentage of his routes from the slot (85.3%) then Welker has (73.8%)

    While Rusty also likes to make a big deal how Amendola is a better deep receiver then Welker is.  Since 2009 out of 2104 routes ran Welker has been targeted as a deep receiver  38 times with 17 receptions for 655 yards.  An average of 38.5 yards per deep reception.  Out of 1085 routes ran Amendola was targeted 18 times with 5 receptions for 163 yards.  An average of 32.6 yards per reception.

    In another thread Rust said how much better the Pats will do with adding Amendola into screen passes, something Rusty said Welker didn't do much.  In 2012 Welker was targeted 22 time on screen passes while Amondola just 7.

    As you can see Rusty just throw's out numbers and stats as well as false statements.  The things he says is just not true.  He has an agenda here regardless if what he says is true or not.  How can people believe a word he says?

     

     



     




    LOL

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    Here's the ony metric that matters. WW played poker with BB, and lost. Thank you for your service, and we won't forget you dropped that pass in the SB.  See ya

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    First, I don't care what Rusty says. I'm just talking about Wes vs Amendola. You and Rusty can beef all night long for all I care. I'll say my peice and then I'm going out because it's Friday and I have better things to do.

    1.) Mine are taken from splits on SI.com, ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, and Yahoo.com (IIRC they have them too). They are readily available to all. Where are yours from?

    2.) There are two components to competing on the edge. Size and top speed. 5'11 to 5'9" makes a difference -- a big difference. Saying it doesn't flies in the face of the last 30 years of aerial football man. Two inches traditionally translates across the body, meaning longer arms, bigger hands, a wider torso. Even though both Wes and Amendola had 30 inch jumps, Amendola is going to have a percieved 4-6 inch advantage (or more if he is a freak) vertically because of this, and that will translate to balls slightly outside the frame (cue SB46 video of Wes being a couple inches away from having an easily securable catch). 

    3.) Deion Branch was a whole lot faster than Welker. When you have top speed you can still run deep routes even if your height isn't there. Just like some slower WRs will run deep routes based purely on their size (see Jackson from SD). Amendola is faster too. Neither of them are as quick as Wes but that is a given. I've seen Welker run down from behind by 43 defensive ends over the long haul. He just doesn't have the top speed to generate separation after 10-15 yards or so, he relies on his elite quickness to get a few steps in short and then loses himself in the mix after the catch. No one has been better at that in his time in the NFL. 

    It's just a fact that Wes is quick not fast, not an opinion. But if you need numbers ... courtesy of NFLDraftScouts.com.

     

    Amedola 4.58 40yd 4.25 Shuttle

    Welker   4.65 40yd 4.02 Shuttle

    One is faster the other is quicker.

    Though if you have actually watched both players it should be apparent to the naked eye. A 10th of a second matters on routes longer than 10-15 yards. It makes a player more useful on the edge. It is separation. Just like two inches of frame size, which normally carries over to longer arms, bigger hands, etc, makes a difference.

    So let's not pretend that he is something that he is not, which is what you are doing. I get you are sore because "your guy" got away. But you are building Wes into something he wasn't. He was the premier slot reciever in the NFL. Unfortunately, NE already re-upped the premier slot TE making Wes a redundant piece, and limiting his value to the team. 

    In a perfect world, they get to keep everyone. They stuck a value on him. I happen to agree with that, and have been vocal about it for a few seasons.

    What Rusty is saying about Amendola's potential versatility is what every outlet that has a couple brain cells is saying. It's just out there. He has more upside in this system, at his age, as it is run now and how BB evidently would like to run it going forward.  

    4.) Also, think what you want, post-non-contextualized numbers .... NE doesn't run Welker on long routes, that is enough proof. 38 catches out of 2014 routes, even if those numbers look really wonky considering I'm seeing him catch about 4 balls a season on deep routes on MY splits, is really really low. 

    Heck, Amendola has almost as many 20+ (in the air, not including YAC) rec over the last few complete years in about half as many games.  

    5.) They run wierd stack patterns to keep him inside. They run odd sets where Hernandez or Stevan Ridley, or Vereen are split out wide. They tried to bring Edelman in, starting him OVER Welker to begin last season, and a lot of Edelman's time was spent lined at X. Wes has a small frame and is really outsized by even average corners out there.

    He isn't suited to play outside. 

    6.) And yes, they BOTH have primarily played out of the slot, but Amendola has far more upside as an X/Y combo than Welker, who is basically just a Y type WR. The fact that NE paid Amendola basically the same amount that they would have paid Welker (I know about the guaranteed dollars) should demonstrate that they see some value that equates. I don't assume that value is as another slot log-jam. They probably want to use Amendola the way they've tried using Edelman. 



    Here is my source...

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/14/by-the-numbers-welker-and-amendola/

    Take a gander and let me know what you think.  Then we can address your other opinions.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    After the signing I read that Amendola had the shortest yards per catch in the NFL for a starting receiver and that no one had caught more balls closer to the line of scrimage. Which would hurt the "Amendola will be more diverse and play on the outside better" theory. Now I don't agree with this feeling or thought because I DO think we will use his size, youth and better size to be a little more diverse than Welker was. But it is interesting that this guy basically was worse than Welker in terms of getting down the field.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    First, I don't care what Rusty says. I'm just talking about Wes vs Amendola. You and Rusty can beef all night long for all I care. I'll say my peice and then I'm going out because it's Friday and I have better things to do.

    1.) Mine are taken from splits on SI.com, ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, and Yahoo.com (IIRC they have them too). They are readily available to all. Where are yours from?

    2.) There are two components to competing on the edge. Size and top speed. 5'11 to 5'9" makes a difference -- a big difference. Saying it doesn't flies in the face of the last 30 years of aerial football man. Two inches traditionally translates across the body, meaning longer arms, bigger hands, a wider torso. Even though both Wes and Amendola had 30 inch jumps, Amendola is going to have a percieved 4-6 inch advantage (or more if he is a freak) vertically because of this, and that will translate to balls slightly outside the frame (cue SB46 video of Wes being a couple inches away from having an easily securable catch). 

    3.) Deion Branch was a whole lot faster than Welker. When you have top speed you can still run deep routes even if your height isn't there. Just like some slower WRs will run deep routes based purely on their size (see Jackson from SD). Amendola is faster too. Neither of them are as quick as Wes but that is a given. I've seen Welker run down from behind by 43 defensive ends over the long haul. He just doesn't have the top speed to generate separation after 10-15 yards or so, he relies on his elite quickness to get a few steps in short and then loses himself in the mix after the catch. No one has been better at that in his time in the NFL. 

    It's just a fact that Wes is quick not fast, not an opinion. But if you need numbers ... courtesy of NFLDraftScouts.com.

     

    Amedola 4.58 40yd 4.25 Shuttle

    Welker   4.65 40yd 4.02 Shuttle

    One is faster the other is quicker.

    Though if you have actually watched both players it should be apparent to the naked eye. A 10th of a second matters on routes longer than 10-15 yards. It makes a player more useful on the edge. It is separation. Just like two inches of frame size, which normally carries over to longer arms, bigger hands, etc, makes a difference.

    So let's not pretend that he is something that he is not, which is what you are doing. I get you are sore because "your guy" got away. But you are building Wes into something he wasn't. He was the premier slot reciever in the NFL. Unfortunately, NE already re-upped the premier slot TE making Wes a redundant piece, and limiting his value to the team. 

    In a perfect world, they get to keep everyone. They stuck a value on him. I happen to agree with that, and have been vocal about it for a few seasons.

    What Rusty is saying about Amendola's potential versatility is what every outlet that has a couple brain cells is saying. It's just out there. He has more upside in this system, at his age, as it is run now and how BB evidently would like to run it going forward.  

    4.) Also, think what you want, post-non-contextualized numbers .... NE doesn't run Welker on long routes, that is enough proof. 38 catches out of 2014 routes, even if those numbers look really wonky considering I'm seeing him catch about 4 balls a season on deep routes on MY splits, is really really low. 

    Heck, Amendola has almost as many 20+ (in the air, not including YAC) rec over the last few complete years in about half as many games.  

    5.) They run wierd stack patterns to keep him inside. They run odd sets where Hernandez or Stevan Ridley, or Vereen are split out wide. They tried to bring Edelman in, starting him OVER Welker to begin last season, and a lot of Edelman's time was spent lined at X. Wes has a small frame and is really outsized by even average corners out there.

    He isn't suited to play outside. 

    6.) And yes, they BOTH have primarily played out of the slot, but Amendola has far more upside as an X/Y combo than Welker, who is basically just a Y type WR. The fact that NE paid Amendola basically the same amount that they would have paid Welker (I know about the guaranteed dollars) should demonstrate that they see some value that equates. I don't assume that value is as another slot log-jam. They probably want to use Amendola the way they've tried using Edelman. 



    +10000000

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to tanbass' comment:

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

     But here is my problem.  Rusty comes on here from the get go, demisnishing Welkers production for the team, and saying Amendola does all these other things better.  HE LIES!!  His facts aren't true! And if anyone disagress he treats them like dirt, tells them they don't know anything about football, blah, blah, blah.  He has an agenda here, the Pats can do no wrong.  He acts like the high and mighty here, bashing others all the time. 

     



    Do yourself a huge favor, and just put that lonely little attention starved f-cktard on ignore. I find the forums much more enjoyable w/o having to listen to his childish BS in every freaking thread.....It never changes.

     

    Brady sucks(post season), the shotgun is the reason we suck, the entire league is against us, the world is against BB & jealous too, Everyone here attacks him first, people follow him around the forum, blah blah blah....day after day after day. Ignore is your friend bro!!

    Rusty leads a very pathetic little life where he spends ungodly amounts of time in a football forum, telling a bunch of starngers how smart he is, how he "owns" people during arguments, how great his job is, how uneducated everyone else is....it's beyond pathetic. Whats really scary is that he can't see how much 99% of this message board thinks he's an absolute tool, and he's the joke of the forum. Don't watse your time feeding his need for attention.....let it go.....if everyone did that, the little annoying gnat would leave.



    Wonderfully written!! Although I must say I disagree with the part where you say/mention feeding his attention just kind of keeps him around. Truthfully he just won't go away - and trust me the place has turned into a ghost town because of him - good posters aren't here anymore. They grew tired of his crap.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     


    Well, for one ... most of those reps are probably in the stack formation NE loves to use to mask the fact that they really have two slot type recievers in Hern and Welker. So essentially, Wes is a slot, even if he isn't nominally in that setup. And even when they run him on the outside, he's running a slot tree. He doesn't run ins, hitches, etc, just short comebacks, slants, picks, screens, and a "go" if there is no one behind the corner.

     

    Amendola, *does* do more than that from the X/Z position. I can literally show you video demonstrating it.

     

    Also, your numbers are wierd ... here is what I have from "splits" on three different websites for 2012. I'm not sure. At any rate, being targeted just 38 times out of 2014 routes on "deep" passes, I assume over 20, is really not a whole lot at all. Neither guy is a deep route runner. But DA has better potential there. Sure he isn't as quick as Wes, but he is bigger, stronger, and faster. So he might not be "uncoverable" in the slot like Wes is, but he should be more diverse within what NE hopes to do, which is kick Hernandez inside where he can assist in blocking and make the 2TE setup really sing.

    Long/Intermediate Passes - 10+

    DA: 13 rec 309 yds 

    WW: 14 rec 359 yds

    Long Passes Only - 20+

    DA: 4 rec 138 yds

    WW: 3 rec 99 yds

    Keeping in mind that Welker was targeted 175 times to Amendola's 101, you have to see, they almost never ran Wes on "long routes" as those three were likely just "go" routes from opportunity (spotting that the safety had completely left the top naked). 

    Wes is elite in the slot, and on short routes, but his height is a major disadvantage running outside routes; he77, we've even seen BB try to bring Edelman in more just because he adds that dimension, though Edelman is so much worse at everything else and is injured all the time. 

    Neither guy is a deep threat, but Amendola can do more for NE on that front based purely on his ability to create separation after 10 yards, and his height/wingspan to compete outside his frame. 

     




     

    Well I provided numbers and a link to back up my numbers. I'm sorry if they are weird but thats what they report.  And it is from a legit site, referenced by a ton of media as well as analysist.

    The point is I posted and backed up my claims with numbers and references.  Rusty makes comments that are his opinion, they are not facts, yet he tends to treat them as such, and then bashes people if they don't agree.  He spins everything others say is true, he tows the company, he has an agenda here.  

    No you mention 3 different web sites, care to post links that contradicts my numbers?

    And your other statements are your opinion, yet you are writing them like they are facts.

    Welker is 5'9, Amendola is 5'11".  I really don't think two inches is going to be a huge factor here in a deep pass route.  If it was like 5'9" compared to 6'2" then yes, I would agree.  Yet I have seen where Deion Branch is able to go deep and he is the same height as Welker.  Come on, wingspan, separation... If that was the case then Matthew Slater would be out running the deeper routes instead of Amendola as his height, wingspan is greater then Amendolas.

     

     

     

    First, I don't care what Rusty says. I'm just talking about Wes vs Amendola. You and Rusty can beef all night long for all I care. I'll say my peice and then I'm going out because it's Friday and I have better things to do.

    1.) Mine are taken from splits on SI.com, ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, and Yahoo.com (IIRC they have them too). They are readily available to all. Where are yours from?

    2.) There are two components to competing on the edge. Size and top speed. 5'11 to 5'9" makes a difference -- a big difference. Saying it doesn't flies in the face of the last 30 years of aerial football man. Two inches traditionally translates across the body, meaning longer arms, bigger hands, a wider torso. Even though both Wes and Amendola had 30 inch jumps, Amendola is going to have a percieved 4-6 inch advantage (or more if he is a freak) vertically because of this, and that will translate to balls slightly outside the frame (cue SB46 video of Wes being a couple inches away from having an easily securable catch). 

    3.) Deion Branch was a whole lot faster than Welker. When you have top speed you can still run deep routes even if your height isn't there. Just like some slower WRs will run deep routes based purely on their size (see Jackson from SD). Amendola is faster too. Neither of them are as quick as Wes but that is a given. I've seen Welker run down from behind by 43 defensive ends over the long haul. He just doesn't have the top speed to generate separation after 10-15 yards or so, he relies on his elite quickness to get a few steps in short and then loses himself in the mix after the catch. No one has been better at that in his time in the NFL. 

    It's just a fact that Wes is quick not fast, not an opinion. But if you need numbers ... courtesy of NFLDraftScouts.com.

     

    Amedola 4.58 40yd 4.25 Shuttle

    Welker   4.65 40yd 4.02 Shuttle

    One is faster the other is quicker.

    Though if you have actually watched both players it should be apparent to the naked eye. A 10th of a second matters on routes longer than 10-15 yards. It makes a player more useful on the edge. It is separation. Just like two inches of frame size, which normally carries over to longer arms, bigger hands, etc, makes a difference.

    So let's not pretend that he is something that he is not, which is what you are doing. I get you are sore because "your guy" got away. But you are building Wes into something he wasn't. He was the premier slot reciever in the NFL. Unfortunately, NE already re-upped the premier slot TE making Wes a redundant piece, and limiting his value to the team. 

    In a perfect world, they get to keep everyone. They stuck a value on him. I happen to agree with that, and have been vocal about it for a few seasons.

    What Rusty is saying about Amendola's potential versatility is what every outlet that has a couple brain cells is saying. It's just out there. He has more upside in this system, at his age, as it is run now and how BB evidently would like to run it going forward.  

    4.) Also, think what you want, post-non-contextualized numbers .... NE doesn't run Welker on long routes, that is enough proof. 38 catches out of 2014 routes, even if those numbers look really wonky considering I'm seeing him catch about 4 balls a season on deep routes on MY splits, is really really low. 

    Heck, Amendola has almost as many 20+ (in the air, not including YAC) rec over the last few complete years in about half as many games.  

    5.) They run wierd stack patterns to keep him inside. They run odd sets where Hernandez or Stevan Ridley, or Vereen are split out wide. They tried to bring Edelman in, starting him OVER Welker to begin last season, and a lot of Edelman's time was spent lined at X. Wes has a small frame and is really outsized by even average corners out there.

    He isn't suited to play outside. 

    6.) And yes, they BOTH have primarily played out of the slot, but Amendola has far more upside as an X/Y combo than Welker, who is basically just a Y type WR. The fact that NE paid Amendola basically the same amount that they would have paid Welker (I know about the guaranteed dollars) should demonstrate that they see some value that equates. I don't assume that value is as another slot log-jam. They probably want to use Amendola the way they've tried using Edelman. 




    Nice post. Agree, height does make a difference in not only deep patterns, but all patterns. I can see us using Amendola differently than we use Wes and with the tight ends we have inside it may make for a better offense...of course Amendola will have to stay healthy for that to happen though.

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to mthurl's comment:


    Nice post. Agree, height does make a difference in not only deep patterns, but all patterns. I can see us using Amendola differently than we use Wes and with the tight ends we have inside it may make for a better offense...of course Amendola will have to stay healthy for that to happen though.

     



    I hope they can use him on the outside but nothing that he has done so far in his career shows that he can. He hasn't up to this point of his career.  Does he have size, speed, strength to do so?  I don't know, maybe.  Is he a better route runner then Welker, I don't think so.  I see them using him much as the same as Welker, maybe spread him out a few times more during the game??  We will have to wait and see.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to kansaspatriot's comment:

    Here's the ony metric that matters. WW played poker with BB, and lost. Thank you for your service, and we won't forget you dropped that pass in the SB.  See ya

    Bill Belichick and the Patriots vs Wes Welker.  Who wins this poker match?




    We all lost on that one.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from NOISE. Show NOISE's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to TFB12's comment:

    Let me just put this here from the thread I linked to above..

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

    Fun video for sure. It will be exciting to see what he can do in NE and see what the Pats have in store for him.

    Btw, he can get down field at times but that video shows how easily he is tackled and his yards after catch are not impressive. Certainly not better then Welkers.


    I know I will get slammed here for mentioning Welker but Rusty has gone on record over and over, post after post, thread after thread telling untruths just to push his agenda here, tow the company line and push Amendola and berate Welker.

    But the things he says over and over are not true.

    Rusty has said Welker was basically only a slot WR.  That Amendola lines up on the outside a lot more, that Amendola lines up in more positions then Welker has.  That Amendola runs more screen passes and can be better at running those.

    Well let me spew the facts here... 

    Since 2009 Danny Amendola has ran a higher percentage of his routes from the slot (85.3%) then Welker has (73.8%)

    While Rusty also likes to make a big deal how Amendola is a better deep receiver then Welker is.  Since 2009 out of 2104 routes ran Welker has been targeted as a deep receiver  38 times with 17 receptions for 655 yards.  An average of 38.5 yards per deep reception.  Out of 1085 routes ran Amendola was targeted 18 times with 5 receptions for 163 yards.  An average of 32.6 yards per reception.

    In another thread Rust said how much better the Pats will do with adding Amendola into screen passes, something Rusty said Welker didn't do much.  In 2012 Welker was targeted 22 time on screen passes while Amondola just 7.

    As you can see Rusty just throw's out numbers and stats as well as false statements.  The things he says is just not true.  He has an agenda here regardless if what he says is true or not.  How can people believe a word he says?

     

     



     



    HaHa!  Picture means a thousand words TFB!  Right on here....you guys are funny....

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    stats are for losers per the words of BB!  The one stat that doesn't lie, is the EYE test.  WELKER has it ALL over Amendola.....period.   We'll see how it goes this upcoming season, but the O will take a hit wihout WELKER.  

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

    Has anyone come across any stats to compare these two? I haven't seen much in the area of stats barring the drop rate which Amendola is clearly superior.

    But, I was wondering mostly about amount of targets and any other data we can look at to compare.

     




    This is kind of funny.  After all of the railing you done on those who question the welker/amendola decision, you don't even know the statistics to support your position.  Rusty at his most honest. 

    Argue first - learn later.  I'll give Russ this.  he is the ultimate Belichick supporter even when he really doesn't understand Belichick's decisions.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to UD6's comment:

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     

    Has anyone come across any stats to compare these two? I haven't seen much in the area of stats barring the drop rate which Amendola is clearly superior.

    But, I was wondering mostly about amount of targets and any other data we can look at to compare.

     

     




    This is kind of funny.  After all of the railing you done on those who question the welker/amendola decision, you don't even know the statistics to support your position.  Rusty at his most honest. 

     

    Argue first - learn later.  I'll give Russ this.  he is the ultimate Belichick supporter even when he really doesn't understand Belichick's decisions.




    You nailed it UD6.  His arguments, everything he has argued over the last couple weeks was shut down once I proved with number that everything he has been saying were not true. He is a fraud!  It was all empty lies he has been spouting off.  It was in fact just his opinion which he was throwing around acting like everything he was saying was correct.  This thread is funny, to see once I presented the numbers he went into panic mode, his words have been forever tarnished now.  He has been very quiet the last day ever since I provided numbers, facts to debunk everything he has been saying.  I am sure he has been looking over every inch of the internet trying to find numbers, any numbers that can back up his false claims and he hasn't found any yet.  He won't find any.  He is a fraud!!

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to mthurl's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     


    Well, for one ... most of those reps are probably in the stack formation NE loves to use to mask the fact that they really have two slot type recievers in Hern and Welker. So essentially, Wes is a slot, even if he isn't nominally in that setup. And even when they run him on the outside, he's running a slot tree. He doesn't run ins, hitches, etc, just short comebacks, slants, picks, screens, and a "go" if there is no one behind the corner.

     

    Amendola, *does* do more than that from the X/Z position. I can literally show you video demonstrating it.

     

    Also, your numbers are wierd ... here is what I have from "splits" on three different websites for 2012. I'm not sure. At any rate, being targeted just 38 times out of 2014 routes on "deep" passes, I assume over 20, is really not a whole lot at all. Neither guy is a deep route runner. But DA has better potential there. Sure he isn't as quick as Wes, but he is bigger, stronger, and faster. So he might not be "uncoverable" in the slot like Wes is, but he should be more diverse within what NE hopes to do, which is kick Hernandez inside where he can assist in blocking and make the 2TE setup really sing.

    Long/Intermediate Passes - 10+

    DA: 13 rec 309 yds 

    WW: 14 rec 359 yds

    Long Passes Only - 20+

    DA: 4 rec 138 yds

    WW: 3 rec 99 yds

    Keeping in mind that Welker was targeted 175 times to Amendola's 101, you have to see, they almost never ran Wes on "long routes" as those three were likely just "go" routes from opportunity (spotting that the safety had completely left the top naked). 

    Wes is elite in the slot, and on short routes, but his height is a major disadvantage running outside routes; he77, we've even seen BB try to bring Edelman in more just because he adds that dimension, though Edelman is so much worse at everything else and is injured all the time. 

    Neither guy is a deep threat, but Amendola can do more for NE on that front based purely on his ability to create separation after 10 yards, and his height/wingspan to compete outside his frame. 

     




     

    Well I provided numbers and a link to back up my numbers. I'm sorry if they are weird but thats what they report.  And it is from a legit site, referenced by a ton of media as well as analysist.

    The point is I posted and backed up my claims with numbers and references.  Rusty makes comments that are his opinion, they are not facts, yet he tends to treat them as such, and then bashes people if they don't agree.  He spins everything others say is true, he tows the company, he has an agenda here.  

    No you mention 3 different web sites, care to post links that contradicts my numbers?

    And your other statements are your opinion, yet you are writing them like they are facts.

    Welker is 5'9, Amendola is 5'11".  I really don't think two inches is going to be a huge factor here in a deep pass route.  If it was like 5'9" compared to 6'2" then yes, I would agree.  Yet I have seen where Deion Branch is able to go deep and he is the same height as Welker.  Come on, wingspan, separation... If that was the case then Matthew Slater would be out running the deeper routes instead of Amendola as his height, wingspan is greater then Amendolas.

     

     

     

    First, I don't care what Rusty says. I'm just talking about Wes vs Amendola. You and Rusty can beef all night long for all I care. I'll say my peice and then I'm going out because it's Friday and I have better things to do.

    1.) Mine are taken from splits on SI.com, ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, and Yahoo.com (IIRC they have them too). They are readily available to all. Where are yours from?

    2.) There are two components to competing on the edge. Size and top speed. 5'11 to 5'9" makes a difference -- a big difference. Saying it doesn't flies in the face of the last 30 years of aerial football man. Two inches traditionally translates across the body, meaning longer arms, bigger hands, a wider torso. Even though both Wes and Amendola had 30 inch jumps, Amendola is going to have a percieved 4-6 inch advantage (or more if he is a freak) vertically because of this, and that will translate to balls slightly outside the frame (cue SB46 video of Wes being a couple inches away from having an easily securable catch). 

    3.) Deion Branch was a whole lot faster than Welker. When you have top speed you can still run deep routes even if your height isn't there. Just like some slower WRs will run deep routes based purely on their size (see Jackson from SD). Amendola is faster too. Neither of them are as quick as Wes but that is a given. I've seen Welker run down from behind by 43 defensive ends over the long haul. He just doesn't have the top speed to generate separation after 10-15 yards or so, he relies on his elite quickness to get a few steps in short and then loses himself in the mix after the catch. No one has been better at that in his time in the NFL. 

    It's just a fact that Wes is quick not fast, not an opinion. But if you need numbers ... courtesy of NFLDraftScouts.com.

     

    Amedola 4.58 40yd 4.25 Shuttle

    Welker   4.65 40yd 4.02 Shuttle

    One is faster the other is quicker.

    Though if you have actually watched both players it should be apparent to the naked eye. A 10th of a second matters on routes longer than 10-15 yards. It makes a player more useful on the edge. It is separation. Just like two inches of frame size, which normally carries over to longer arms, bigger hands, etc, makes a difference.

    So let's not pretend that he is something that he is not, which is what you are doing. I get you are sore because "your guy" got away. But you are building Wes into something he wasn't. He was the premier slot reciever in the NFL. Unfortunately, NE already re-upped the premier slot TE making Wes a redundant piece, and limiting his value to the team. 

    In a perfect world, they get to keep everyone. They stuck a value on him. I happen to agree with that, and have been vocal about it for a few seasons.

    What Rusty is saying about Amendola's potential versatility is what every outlet that has a couple brain cells is saying. It's just out there. He has more upside in this system, at his age, as it is run now and how BB evidently would like to run it going forward.  

    4.) Also, think what you want, post-non-contextualized numbers .... NE doesn't run Welker on long routes, that is enough proof. 38 catches out of 2014 routes, even if those numbers look really wonky considering I'm seeing him catch about 4 balls a season on deep routes on MY splits, is really really low. 

    Heck, Amendola has almost as many 20+ (in the air, not including YAC) rec over the last few complete years in about half as many games.  

    5.) They run wierd stack patterns to keep him inside. They run odd sets where Hernandez or Stevan Ridley, or Vereen are split out wide. They tried to bring Edelman in, starting him OVER Welker to begin last season, and a lot of Edelman's time was spent lined at X. Wes has a small frame and is really outsized by even average corners out there.

    He isn't suited to play outside. 

    6.) And yes, they BOTH have primarily played out of the slot, but Amendola has far more upside as an X/Y combo than Welker, who is basically just a Y type WR. The fact that NE paid Amendola basically the same amount that they would have paid Welker (I know about the guaranteed dollars) should demonstrate that they see some value that equates. I don't assume that value is as another slot log-jam. They probably want to use Amendola the way they've tried using Edelman. 

     




    Nice post. Agree, height does make a difference in not only deep patterns, but all patterns. I can see us using Amendola differently than we use Wes and with the tight ends we have inside it may make for a better offense...of course Amendola will have to stay healthy for that to happen though.

     



    That's the only reason I question the signing. NE has too many fragile players and have added another. I think Amendola is probably going to do what they envisioned Edelman doing, kind of like a Victor Cruz type role, where he plays outside and inside combo in a way that Welker really just cannot.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     

    Metrics are DVOA, and Wes stomps Amendola. It's not even a competition. But those metrics value raw yardage as the "table" on which the meal is set. It's difficult to project what a WR would do given more chances.  

    W. Welker:    30th   5.4%

    D. Amendola: 68th  -7.6%

    --- but looking at Wes's numbers in 2006 shows how this is skewed:

    Wes Welker (2006): 58th   -1.0%

    That was the last time Wes Welker had a season with a negative DVOA.

    The problem with DVOA is that even though it factors in percentages and rate, it can't project how well Amendola would do if he had more reps, what he would have looked like with Brady throwing to him (who is far more accurate as you will see below) and it *STILL* doesn't account for drops, even though they are relatively easy to track. Needless to say, Welker is not and has not been even a top 15 WR in the NFL. He is an elite slot WR, but he is still a slot WR. He isn't the talent a lot of people made him out to be, and his large reception totals were a function of his skill at getting open, but also the offense he was in before where he ran underneath Randy Moss and was featured in combo routes there and the offense he was in now where he filled in for Hernandez and ran underneath Gronkowski. When Hernandez was healthy .... he wasn't making so many catches. Hernandez AND Amendola will pick up the slack.  

    Wes Welker

    175 Targ / 118 Rec / Comp% 67.4 / Yds 1354  / 11.5 ypr/ Drops 19 / Drp% 10.8 / Miss 38 /

    Miss % 21.7

    LOS-10yds 103 Rec / Shrt Pass % 58.8

    Danny Amendola

    101 Targ / 63 Rec / Comp% 62.3 / Yds 666 / 10.6 ypr / Drops 2 / Drp% 1.9 / Miss 36 /

    Miss % 35.6

    LOS-10yds 51 Rec / Shrt Pass % 50.4

     

    W. Welker Adj. 2012 -> 10.9 Drops / 52 rec /  598

    D. Amendola Adj. 2012 -> 3.3 Drops / 133 rec / 1409 yds

    Here is a rundown. Misses means passes that didn't connect because of an errant throw, a miscommunication (wrong route on either end), or a pass defended. The benefit of playing with Brady is clear, though it's tough to sort out whether the "misses" could be because Amendola ran the wrong route or didn't get open enough and the pass was defended. What is clear is that he is much better at securing a catch.

    The bottom most numbers reconstruct the seasons they may have had if they switched QBs and offenses. The middle numbers, though, cloud this because Welker was a short pass WR; even when they lined him up outside, which was about half the time when Hernandez was on the field, he ran short routes, slants, etcetera. Amendola is an outside WR who comes into the slot when the Rams are in 4 wide or sometimes in 3 wide.

    The truth is somewhere between those numbers because I doubt Welker would have attracted the amount of attention he does in NE in St Louis, and he might have had less drops because of that. And I doubt that Amendola, who will now be more featured, will be as sure handed with teams keying on his routes. The fact is  .... no one cares what the dreaded Bradford/ Amendola connection is doing when they play St Louis .... they are there to stop Steven Jackson first and foremost. 

    Brady to Welker was the show last season, especially given the spate of injuries suffered by the TE group.

    Welker has had a problem dropping the ball since he came back from his knee injury, and I was discussing it before the infamous "drop" in the Superbowl. At the time, before that game, no one cared or noticed. 

    That said, I do think Wes is the best WR at getting open (possibly the best I've ever seen), though as my barber says (they have thought Welker was a choke artist for seasons) it doesn't matter if he drops it. 

    The truth, though, is that a.) as I've said for 3 seasons, Welker was an excellent spare part once Hernandez came here, b.) Amendola won't see 175 targets unless, c.) Hernandez spends the season injured again. Otherwise, the "replacement" for Wes Welker will be Hernandez in the "slot" as an H-back TE option much more often, much like Dallas Clark was for the Colts, with Amendola and Edelman(?) securing the slot position alternately when they run a true 11 package.  

    All of this is a huge risk though. Hernandez and Amendola are frequently injured. I don't have faith they can stay healthy for a whole season. 

    At the end of the day, NE takes a hit to the slot, but not the hit that DVOA would suggest. But they also gain a player who is much better outside the slot, and refine their personell package by being able to maximize Hernandez where HIS matchups are better. 

    Now, they need a true Z option, which they simply have not been able to fill since Moss left. If it's another JAG, they are still going to be a 20 yards and beneath offense, which will continue to put tremendous pressure on Brady to be hyper accurate in that crowded area. 

     

     




    Ahh, thanks Z. Appreciate your contrrbuting that.  What I don't appreciate is a Welker fanboy-tinged analysis.  After you post those, it's clear Brady to 28 year old Amendola here with a loaded cast and Brady is going to prove a great ROI as opposed to Brady to a 32 year old Welker.

     

    I think you're one who would thoroughly enjoy another postseason blown lead and loss due to a fledgling offense that is Welker and slot-centric, because you just tried to spin those numbers as if Welker would be a superior choice now and in the future.

    I am not willing to sit back coome January, arms folded, watching the shotgun spreads fail and fail and fail and fail to the tune of 13 and 14 points in the biggest game of the year. 

    The time had come.  Expect more focus on running, traditional sets and Brady being told to widen the field earlier in games so he's not throwing into such tight windows all the time.

    Go look at his last 3 AFC title games at home.    Horrendous.

    Amendola can play the Z just like he did in STL.  You're wrong. They need a guy who can play the X, Y or Z, which means they are 1-2 WRs away from getting that.

    If they are going to get Emmanuel Sanders (BB is waiting so he can squeeze Pitt so they can't match which is more genius from BB), that is one more guy that can do that.

    Hernandez is a great slot guy, but also can line up on the outside. Donald Jones is more of a project on a 1 year deal, but he could work out better than expected.  He's big, fast and strong enough to be a Z. 

    The idea is to have every WR, preferably 4 of them, be able to line up in all 3 spots a WR usually lines up and know what to do if Brady audibles and how to run a route when it's man or when it's zone. Adjusting.

    Welker was beyond limited due to his physical make up. Not his fault, it just what it was. It's what made his play so fun to watch. 5 routes, in and out of the hashes, and 90% of the time no one could stop it for 4 qtrs. It was that 10% that has KILLED this offense in the postseason, though.

    The divorce had to come just like it came with Moss. The ship had sailed.

    This isn't about playing for Wes Welker's last 2 years in the NFL and getting him his ring, it's about the New England Patriots, a team of 53.

     

     



    ???????????

    Re-read that. 

    My whole point is that Amedola, when we look deeply at the numbers, is likely a better option going forward than Welker. 

    Keeping Welker around means keeping the logjam at slot, and having him run these wierd routes behind Hernandez from stack formations etcetera, or being forced to split Hernandez wide, where he is also less effective, or sitting Hernandez or Welker to bring on some JAG to play outside. 

    I don't like that. Welker was at his best when NE had Moss, Gaffney, and Watson, and used an 11 package as their base set. He was a lock in the slot on every play. Now, he just creates personell issues, and investing money in him means investing money in playing over the middle. 

    All I said in praise of Welker is that as a pure slot WR, which NE doesn't really need, he is the best in the NFL. He is virtually uncoverable there. 

    But they've paid Hernandez. They don't need another slot, especially one that is going on 32 and has a case of the dropsies. 

    If he can stay healthy, Amendola makes more sense for NE. 

    I'm not even remotely a "Welker fanboy" and really, I can't even fathom how you would gather that as I've basically spent this thread talking with TFB about how Welker leaving is likely for the best over the long run. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to Godvernment's comment:

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     


    Well, for one ... most of those reps are probably in the stack formation NE loves to use to mask the fact that they really have two slot type recievers in Hern and Welker. So essentially, Wes is a slot, even if he isn't nominally in that setup. And even when they run him on the outside, he's running a slot tree. He doesn't run ins, hitches, etc, just short comebacks, slants, picks, screens, and a "go" if there is no one behind the corner.

     

    Amendola, *does* do more than that from the X/Z position. I can literally show you video demonstrating it.

     

    Also, your numbers are wierd ... here is what I have from "splits" on three different websites for 2012. I'm not sure. At any rate, being targeted just 38 times out of 2014 routes on "deep" passes, I assume over 20, is really not a whole lot at all. Neither guy is a deep route runner. But DA has better potential there. Sure he isn't as quick as Wes, but he is bigger, stronger, and faster. So he might not be "uncoverable" in the slot like Wes is, but he should be more diverse within what NE hopes to do, which is kick Hernandez inside where he can assist in blocking and make the 2TE setup really sing.

    Long/Intermediate Passes - 10+

    DA: 13 rec 309 yds 

    WW: 14 rec 359 yds

    Long Passes Only - 20+

    DA: 4 rec 138 yds

    WW: 3 rec 99 yds

    Keeping in mind that Welker was targeted 175 times to Amendola's 101, you have to see, they almost never ran Wes on "long routes" as those three were likely just "go" routes from opportunity (spotting that the safety had completely left the top naked). 

    Wes is elite in the slot, and on short routes, but his height is a major disadvantage running outside routes; he77, we've even seen BB try to bring Edelman in more just because he adds that dimension, though Edelman is so much worse at everything else and is injured all the time. 

    Neither guy is a deep threat, but Amendola can do more for NE on that front based purely on his ability to create separation after 10 yards, and his height/wingspan to compete outside his frame. 

     




     

    Well I provided numbers and a link to back up my numbers. I'm sorry if they are weird but thats what they report.  And it is from a legit site, referenced by a ton of media as well as analysist.

    The point is I posted and backed up my claims with numbers and references.  Rusty makes comments that are his opinion, they are not facts, yet he tends to treat them as such, and then bashes people if they don't agree.  He spins everything others say is true, he tows the company, he has an agenda here.  

    No you mention 3 different web sites, care to post links that contradicts my numbers?

    And your other statements are your opinion, yet you are writing them like they are facts.

    Welker is 5'9, Amendola is 5'11".  I really don't think two inches is going to be a huge factor here in a deep pass route.  If it was like 5'9" compared to 6'2" then yes, I would agree.  Yet I have seen where Deion Branch is able to go deep and he is the same height as Welker.  Come on, wingspan, separation... If that was the case then Matthew Slater would be out running the deeper routes instead of Amendola as his height, wingspan is greater then Amendolas.

     

     



    the problem with your slater point is that when he's in the game the defense already knows what he is going to do. he's not a legit receiver and doesn't offer a vast route tree. when he's in the game you can be sure he's running in a straight line down the field. amendola is just a better receiver and can beat the CB with his savy route running rather than depending on running past them with pure speed.

     

    he's bigger and more athletic than welker, those are the things that make him a better deep threat than welker. the durability question obviously gets the edge from welker, but amendola has a small sample size and some flukey injuries. nothing major to his knees...



    The other problem is that Slater is a bad WR. Lord knows NE tried and tried with him and others to see if someone could be effective outside. They have not been. At least not effective enough to allow them to sit Welker or Hernandez on a regular basis. 

    As it stood the last two seasons, talent dictated that you put your best 11 men on the field. The result was the "attack the middle" offense.

    Ejecting Welker for Amendola gives them a little more "horizontal/vertical" ability. Though, Amendola isn't the only answer, they really need a traditional Z type WR as well. Someone who can do what David Patten did, or Moss did when they would average 16-17 YPC and truly stretch the field. It is an integral part of any offense. Really. 

    NE hasn't had a WR catch 40 or more passes and average more than 15 YPC since Moss. Their best deep threat the past few seasons has been Gronkowski, who has about a 14 YPC. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to TFB12's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     

    First, I don't care what Rusty says. I'm just talking about Wes vs Amendola. You and Rusty can beef all night long for all I care. I'll say my peice and then I'm going out because it's Friday and I have better things to do.

    1.) Mine are taken from splits on SI.com, ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, and Yahoo.com (IIRC they have them too). They are readily available to all. Where are yours from?

    2.) There are two components to competing on the edge. Size and top speed. 5'11 to 5'9" makes a difference -- a big difference. Saying it doesn't flies in the face of the last 30 years of aerial football man. Two inches traditionally translates across the body, meaning longer arms, bigger hands, a wider torso. Even though both Wes and Amendola had 30 inch jumps, Amendola is going to have a percieved 4-6 inch advantage (or more if he is a freak) vertically because of this, and that will translate to balls slightly outside the frame (cue SB46 video of Wes being a couple inches away from having an easily securable catch). 

    3.) Deion Branch was a whole lot faster than Welker. When you have top speed you can still run deep routes even if your height isn't there. Just like some slower WRs will run deep routes based purely on their size (see Jackson from SD). Amendola is faster too. Neither of them are as quick as Wes but that is a given. I've seen Welker run down from behind by 43 defensive ends over the long haul. He just doesn't have the top speed to generate separation after 10-15 yards or so, he relies on his elite quickness to get a few steps in short and then loses himself in the mix after the catch. No one has been better at that in his time in the NFL. 

    It's just a fact that Wes is quick not fast, not an opinion. But if you need numbers ... courtesy of NFLDraftScouts.com.

     

    Amedola 4.58 40yd 4.25 Shuttle

    Welker   4.65 40yd 4.02 Shuttle

    One is faster the other is quicker.

    Though if you have actually watched both players it should be apparent to the naked eye. A 10th of a second matters on routes longer than 10-15 yards. It makes a player more useful on the edge. It is separation. Just like two inches of frame size, which normally carries over to longer arms, bigger hands, etc, makes a difference.

    So let's not pretend that he is something that he is not, which is what you are doing. I get you are sore because "your guy" got away. But you are building Wes into something he wasn't. He was the premier slot reciever in the NFL. Unfortunately, NE already re-upped the premier slot TE making Wes a redundant piece, and limiting his value to the team. 

    In a perfect world, they get to keep everyone. They stuck a value on him. I happen to agree with that, and have been vocal about it for a few seasons.

    What Rusty is saying about Amendola's potential versatility is what every outlet that has a couple brain cells is saying. It's just out there. He has more upside in this system, at his age, as it is run now and how BB evidently would like to run it going forward.  

    4.) Also, think what you want, post-non-contextualized numbers .... NE doesn't run Welker on long routes, that is enough proof. 38 catches out of 2014 routes, even if those numbers look really wonky considering I'm seeing him catch about 4 balls a season on deep routes on MY splits, is really really low. 

    Heck, Amendola has almost as many 20+ (in the air, not including YAC) rec over the last few complete years in about half as many games.  

    5.) They run wierd stack patterns to keep him inside. They run odd sets where Hernandez or Stevan Ridley, or Vereen are split out wide. They tried to bring Edelman in, starting him OVER Welker to begin last season, and a lot of Edelman's time was spent lined at X. Wes has a small frame and is really outsized by even average corners out there.

    He isn't suited to play outside. 

    6.) And yes, they BOTH have primarily played out of the slot, but Amendola has far more upside as an X/Y combo than Welker, who is basically just a Y type WR. The fact that NE paid Amendola basically the same amount that they would have paid Welker (I know about the guaranteed dollars) should demonstrate that they see some value that equates. I don't assume that value is as another slot log-jam. They probably want to use Amendola the way they've tried using Edelman. 

     



    Here is my source...

     

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/14/by-the-numbers-welker-and-amendola/

    Take a gander and let me know what you think.  Then we can address your other opinions.

     



    PFF. Yeah, that jibes more with it. It's 38 targets, not 38 receptions. 38 out of 2014 is what? 1.8 percent. So out of 100 routes, maybe 1 or 2 will be deep routes.

    PFF, as usual, are very responsible and limit their arguments with caveats and exceptions. 

    Here is what PFF, who don't watch enough to know, leave out. Those deep targets, at least half of them probably, are go routes where he was left uncovered. You've seen it too. If Welker smokes his man at the line, and there is no safety, he throws his hand in the air and runs a go. Brady sees it, they connect wide open. He had a 90+ TD catch that way. It hardly makes him a deep threat. It does show how savvy he and Brady were together though. 

    So, of the few that he has, 1.8 percent, a bunch were not designed and were the mistake of the opponent. 

    Saying that ... Amendola has been targetted deep at almost twice the level that Welker has by those numbers. 

    Second, as I said, Welker doesn't line in the slot as often, but NE doesn't employ a slot as often. If Welker is in a stack formation, he is running slot routes out of the backfield. Add those in, and he is in the slot as much or more than Amendola. 

    Third, the argument isn't about what they did last season, in two separate offenses. It's about what Amendola could do here. 

    While much of what I say is fact, my 'opinions' that are there are better reasoned than what you are offering, which is basically .... Welker and Amendola post similar numbers so nothing will change, which ignores the fact that Amendola will now have Brady, Gronk and Hernandez around him, and that Amendola physically fits a mold that NE has been attempting to work into their offense for a few seasons now as an X/Y combo. 

    My wager, should DA stay healthy ... he'll post a higher YPC and YPR than Welker has for NE next season. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     


    Ahh, thanks Z. Appreciate your contrrbuting that.  What I don't appreciate is a Welker fanboy-tinged analysis.  After you post those, it's clear Brady to 28 year old Amendola here with a loaded cast and Brady is going to prove a great ROI as opposed to Brady to a 32 year old Welker.

     


    Hahahahaha!  Hahahahaha! Let me catch my breath!!  Hahahaha!

    So, let me get this straight....  TRUE facts that I researched, found and provided links for are now considered Welker fanboy-tinged analysis! 

    Hahahaha!  What a fraud you are Rusty!!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to zbellino's comment:


    That's the only reason I question the signing. NE has too many fragile players and have added another. I think Amendola is probably going to do what they envisioned Edelman doing, kind of like a Victor Cruz type role, where he plays outside and inside combo in a way that Welker really just cannot.



    Fair enough.  I hope he can, even though he hasn't done anything to show me he can.  Hopefully they can turn him into that type of player because IF they can and he can stay on the field then it will be great.  Time for BB to work his magic!!

     
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