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Welker vs Amendola Metrics

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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    This is the only stat I give a rats azz about.

     

    Amendola missed 22 games out of 32 the last 2 seasons.

     

    He's got to prove he can stay on the field before I'm putting much stock in him.

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    I said something along the lines of Sid when it's all said and done will have just as decorated career as #4 and I do truely believe that..

    I am no pens fan but dude is the best player on the planet by a mile, has been for a while and will be for the next 5-10 years barring head injuries...

    Thats a fact your going to have to deal with..

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

    Holy crap, it was worse than I thought! You said he'd be better than Orr!  LOL!!!

     

    In response to HOTBLITZ's comment:

     

    "Just like when it's all said and done Sid will be looked at as better then Orr..

     

    Hate all you want it's true."

     


    Tears!  You'd be thrown out of every bar in Canada if you made that statement publicly. 



    Dude simmer, I was born and live in TOronto.. The hockey capital of the world.

    Your from Boston and a complete homer...I live and breath hockey everyday...work for the leafs, I can name and prove a few pros and semi pros I've played with..I can argue my point all dscut until you've come here and met me and seen what I'm around on a daily basis please dot bring your hockey talk my way..

     

    You way way underrate 87... Or maybe it's simply hate..

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    Apologies for the grammar, my phones messed up.

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

    In response to HOTBLITZ's comment:

     

    I said something along the lines of Sid when it's all said and done will have just as decorated career as #4 and I do truely believe that..

    I am no pens fan but dude is the best player on the planet by a mile, has been for a while and will be for the next 5-10 years barring head injuries...

    Thats a fact your going to have to deal with..

     



    Just two years ago it was an Ovechkin/Crosby debate, so it's not "a mile" anyway. Throw in a lot of really good players who don't whine like a little girl like Crosby does, and it's beyond debatable that he's not the definitive best in the game right now.

     

    But, to seriously think Crosby would even touch Orr is prepostrous.  Orr changed the game was scoring 140 points, more than offensemen!  Crosby couldn't touch that today. Couldn't touch it.

    You have a lot to learn about players who came before your time.



    Offense men? Lolol dude there called forwards..

    Secondly ovechkin was always a 1 trick pony...

    Third Sid is still on the right side of 25 and has ridiculous accomplishments..

    Too bad I probably won't be talking to you in 5 years to say I told you so.

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to HOTBLITZ's comment:

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     

    In response to HOTBLITZ's comment:

     

    I said something along the lines of Sid when it's all said and done will have just as decorated career as #4 and I do truely believe that..

    I am no pens fan but dude is the best player on the planet by a mile, has been for a while and will be for the next 5-10 years barring head injuries...

    Thats a fact your going to have to deal with..

     



    Just two years ago it was an Ovechkin/Crosby debate, so it's not "a mile" anyway. Throw in a lot of really good players who don't whine like a little girl like Crosby does, and it's beyond debatable that he's not the definitive best in the game right now.

     

    But, to seriously think Crosby would even touch Orr is prepostrous.  Orr changed the game was scoring 140 points, more than offensemen!  Crosby couldn't touch that today. Couldn't touch it.

    You have a lot to learn about players who came before your time.

     



    Offense men? Lolol dude there called forwards..

     

    Secondly ovechkin was always a 1 trick pony...

    Third Sid is still on the right side of 25 and has ridiculous accomplishments..

    Too bad I probably won't be talking to you in 5 years to say I told you so.



    Right now the point is moot cause he still has more then half hiscareer left. 

     

    What kind of response do you think I'ginning to get on a B's board with this arguement, lmao talk about home courtadvantage..lol

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to TFB12's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to kansaspatriot's comment:

     

    Here's the stat I like:

    Amendola’s success rate is considerably higher at 21.9 receptions per drop.

    Welker’s 11 drops last season were second-most in the NFL. Amendola’s drop rate (2.1 percent of targets dropped) rated second-lowest in the NFL.

     

    Sounds like BB made the right call

     



    It's a little hard to drop the ball when you aren't on the field to be thrown to. Fact is players with less looks tend to drop less balls, rate wise, then players that are targetted a lot. Notice the highest % drops usually comes from the players that are targetted the most. 

     

     




    You are correct PatsEng. 

     

    Obviously it stands to reason that the more opportunity you have to drop a ball, the more balls you will drop.  KansasPatriot throws out the statement of Welkers drops comprared to Amedola's drop rate.  Yes, Amedola's drop rate is lower but he didn't have near the passes thrown to him as Welker did.  So he stops there and says Welker was at the top of the list in dropped passes.  Well, he is good company then because as you see below there were some very good WR's who dropped balls last season. 

    Welker (15 drops), Calvin Johnson (14 drops), Brandon Marshall (13 drops), Victor Cruz, Eric Decker and Donnie Avery (all tied 12 drops) all led the league last season in dropped passes.  But you gotta look inside the number for the whole story.  It's easy for people to jump in here and point fingers and throw out stats when the stats they throw out don't paint the full picture.  That's where they fail.

    Welker had 133 catchable drops, his drop rate was 11.28%, Johnson at 10.29% drop rate, Marshall at 9.92% drop rate, Cruz at 12.24% drop rate, Decker at 12.37Z% drop rate and Avery at 16.67% drop rate. 

    According to KansasPatriot's comment I guess since Amendola's drop rate is low then he is better then Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, and Eric Decker too.  Maybe he should go a bit further and see that Wes Welker, while had the most drops wasn't even in the top 15 in highest drop rates. Just for kicks, Donnie Avery was at the top of the list with 12 drops out of 72 catchable passes, with a 16.67% drop rate.

    Since I have started paying more attention to peoples posts around here I am taken back by just how many people throw out blanket statements that really don't mean much when you fully look into the numbers.   None is worse then Rusty, but there are several here who I have always taken as good, educated posters that follow  Rusty's lead here with posting shallow comments acting like they are facts.

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Sorry to rile you up TFB. I like WW, but the honeymoon was over when he dropped that pass that cost us the SB, and then BB turned around rewarded him with a 9 million dollar contract. And what's he do? He flubbed another pass that could have changed momentum in the AFCCG this year.

    Then after the season WW decided he was still worth more than BB wanted to give him.

    It was time for a change.The guy was dropping easy passes with no one around him when we needed to keep the ball  moving, but then making catches while he was getting speared in the helmet or blasted in the chest.

    He was becoming inconsistent. yeah he was getting alot passes thrown his way, and that was another problem, too much reliance on one guy, and not enough weapons.

     

     

     

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

    In response to HOTBLITZ's comment:

     

    In response to HOTBLITZ's comment:

     

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     

    In response to HOTBLITZ's comment:

     

    I said something along the lines of Sid when it's all said and done will have just as decorated career as #4 and I do truely believe that..

    I am no pens fan but dude is the best player on the planet by a mile, has been for a while and will be for the next 5-10 years barring head injuries...

    Thats a fact your going to have to deal with..

     



    Just two years ago it was an Ovechkin/Crosby debate, so it's not "a mile" anyway. Throw in a lot of really good players who don't whine like a little girl like Crosby does, and it's beyond debatable that he's not the definitive best in the game right now.

     

    But, to seriously think Crosby would even touch Orr is prepostrous.  Orr changed the game was scoring 140 points, more than offensemen!  Crosby couldn't touch that today. Couldn't touch it.

    You have a lot to learn about players who came before your time.

     



    Offense men? Lolol dude there called forwards..

     

    Secondly ovechkin was always a 1 trick pony...

    Third Sid is still on the right side of 25 and has ridiculous accomplishments..

    Too bad I probably won't be talking to you in 5 years to say I told you so.

     



    Right now the point is moot cause he still has more then half hiscareer left. 

     

     

    What kind of response do you think I'ginning to get on a B's board with this arguement, lmao talk about home courtadvantage..lol

     




    Offensmen, defensemen. Forwards. Sure. I don't really care how calls em what. 

     

    I don't care what side of 25 he is on.  Bobby Orr had to retire at 30. Do you even know who Orr is?

    Serious question.

    Yes, please start that on the B's board and watch the reception you'll get because it's not fair to others who come here for Pats talk, to be trolling in and out of threads, embarrassed from another, trying to get some kind of leverage back.

     



    Your right it's not fair to pats fans to be talking hockey and for that I'll stop an apologize.

    As for you thinking you somehow won or know more then anyone about the sport is hilarious..

    You must be high..lmao

    Again it started cause you can't take anyone taking it to you whixh is exactly what tfb12 did to you with facts and I was just impressed..I take no sides other then seeing who I think is right and clearly you weren't on this thread!

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    By the time his career is over, maybe Crosby will end up better than Orr . . . and maybe by the time Amendola's career is over, he'll end up better than Welker.  As of now, the two older guys have accomplished more . . . 

     

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    Matter of opinion dude... There can't be a definitive answer no matter what you claim for at least 8-10 years...

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     

    Also, TFB12, put this in your pipe:

     

    Around The League's Gregg Rosenthal pointed out after Wes Welker signed with the Denver Broncos that the New England Patriots preferred Danny Amendola all along. 
    The Patriots aren't alone. 
    One NFC scout opined to MassLive.com that Amendola will be an "upgrade" over Welker as long as Amendola remains healthy. 
     
    "He does all the things the other guy was doing, but he's younger right now -- suddenness, route savvy, a feel for leveraging defenders and finding openings," the scout said. "You name it, he did it. ... Watch (the San Francisco game from last year) -- he (stood) out." 
     
    The scout raises a good point. Amendola's 11-catch performance against the 49ers in Week 10, including a 79-yard overtime catch and a long punt return that were overturned by penalties, was more dominant than any single game by Welker in 2012. 
     
    From watching game tape, I noticed for the first time in Amendola's career he gained more separation on routes and was more explosive after the catch than Welker. 
     
    It's easy to forget that Welker had just one career receiving touchdown with the Miami Dolphins before the Patriots teamed him up with Tom Brady in 2007. Amendola has been more productive at the same stage of their respective careers. 
     
    The Patriots' front office saw something in Welker six years ago that the rest of the league missed. They're seeing something similar in Amendola this time around.

     

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000153313/article/danny-amendola-better-than-wes-welker-scout-says

     




    Hahaha!  One NFC scout who remains nameless.  Ok!  Well I heard NFL players and ex players say totally different things.  But there is one thing this nameless NFC scout dodin't add was the numbers.  The numbers that I provided you long ago that proves you wrong when you stated Amendola lined up less in the slot then Welker did.  The numbers I proved you wrong when you said Amendola had more deep catches then Welker.  Also, the NFC scout forgot to mention while Welker only had one TD with the dDolphins in 06, he had more yards and catches then the Dolphins receiver who made the Pro Bowl that season.  And that pro bowl receiver only had 3 more td's then Welker had.

     

    See the deal here Rusty is those who comment on Amendola is just speculation.  Just their opinions.  Maybe he can do what these people think he can do, I hope so, but he has not done those things yet.  The numbers don't lie.  And the difference between them and you is you were on record here saying that Welker lined up in the slot much more then Amendola, you even stated 99% Welkerwas in the slot when in fact it was the Amendola who lined up in the slot more then Welker, 85% of the time for Amendola compared to 74% of the time for Welker.  So you were WRONG!  You said Amendola had more deep routes, catches then Welker.  Again WRONG!  You were stating many things that when you look at the numbers what you were saying was wrong yet you were trying to make everyone belief otherwise. 

    You do this, state your opinion as fact, in everything you do on here and when people disagree with you then bash them.  And then someone gives the real numbers to you and you go into spin mode.  You are a fraud!  You are a troll!!!

    AND..................

     
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    Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    In response to TFB12's comment:

     

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to kansaspatriot's comment:

     

    Here's the stat I like:

    Amendola’s success rate is considerably higher at 21.9 receptions per drop.

    Welker’s 11 drops last season were second-most in the NFL. Amendola’s drop rate (2.1 percent of targets dropped) rated second-lowest in the NFL.

     

    Sounds like BB made the right call

     



    It's a little hard to drop the ball when you aren't on the field to be thrown to. Fact is players with less looks tend to drop less balls, rate wise, then players that are targetted a lot. Notice the highest % drops usually comes from the players that are targetted the most. 

     

     




    You are correct PatsEng. 

     

    Obviously it stands to reason that the more opportunity you have to drop a ball, the more balls you will drop.  KansasPatriot throws out the statement of Welkers drops comprared to Amedola's drop rate.  Yes, Amedola's drop rate is lower but he didn't have near the passes thrown to him as Welker did.  So he stops there and says Welker was at the top of the list in dropped passes.  Well, he is good company then because as you see below there were some very good WR's who dropped balls last season. 

    Welker (15 drops), Calvin Johnson (14 drops), Brandon Marshall (13 drops), Victor Cruz, Eric Decker and Donnie Avery (all tied 12 drops) all led the league last season in dropped passes.  But you gotta look inside the number for the whole story.  It's easy for people to jump in here and point fingers and throw out stats when the stats they throw out don't paint the full picture.  That's where they fail.

    Welker had 133 catchable drops, his drop rate was 11.28%, Johnson at 10.29% drop rate, Marshall at 9.92% drop rate, Cruz at 12.24% drop rate, Decker at 12.37Z% drop rate and Avery at 16.67% drop rate. 

    According to KansasPatriot's comment I guess since Amendola's drop rate is low then he is better then Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, and Eric Decker too.  Maybe he should go a bit further and see that Wes Welker, while had the most drops wasn't even in the top 15 in highest drop rates. Just for kicks, Donnie Avery was at the top of the list with 12 drops out of 72 catchable passes, with a 16.67% drop rate.

    Since I have started paying more attention to peoples posts around here I am taken back by just how many people throw out blanket statements that really don't mean much when you fully look into the numbers.   None is worse then Rusty, but there are several here who I have always taken as good, educated posters that follow  Rusty's lead here with posting shallow comments acting like they are facts.

     

     



    See, this is the problem with this entire forum. You are all riled up about something and being emotional here. 

     

    No one said Amendola's drop rate makes him better than Calvin Johnson: in fact, it's a strawman argument YOU are making up. The whole comparison is basically absurd. One is a giant deep-threat, RZ threat type WR, another is a slot-type guy. They are so different.

    By virtue of that, you can't even compare. Amendola will never command the deep quadrants the way that CJ can. He doesn't put the vertical pressure CJ can on a defense. He doesn't dominate a side of the endzone. He can't outleap people for passes that CJ can. CJ will get millions because he CAN do all sorts of things that DA cannot. Even if he drops more passes ... the other ways he dominates make up for it. 

    That said ... Welker cannot do anything more than DA can do, and evidence suggests he is even less versatile altough only by a little. 

    THEREFORE, having a discussion about 19 drops to 1 drop is a valid discussion. They are worth comparison on so many levels.

    In fact the only things that muddy the numbers are system (Amendola arrives from a trad 11 system, Welker from a 2TE system) and the frequency of reps (Welker was part of an offense that ran twice as many plays as St Louis) and the caliber of QB they play with.

    Those are "facts" that need interpretation or extrapolation in the discussion. 

    But ... even if you apply YOUR criteria ... 

    Numbers are facts. 

    He drops less passes, a whole bloody lot less passes than Welker. This is true by frequency and total number, no matter which way you measure it. 

    It's something he does better. 

    His numbers before coming to NE are the same (roughly) as Welkers were. 

    He runs deeper routes on average. He runs deeper routes more by frequency. 

    He is also faster. (fact) 

    He is also taller. (fact)

    He is also younger. (fact)

    These are facts (yes man, they are facts) that are out there that people look at on balance. There are tons of facts you could look at for Welker too to discuss the comparison as a balance of pros and cons.  

    Metrical comparisons, projecting how those drop rates might look if he were in a system where he saw the reps Welker saw is just the discussion. 

    Lastly, your "opinion" that Welker would be a better choice is just that ... an unfounded opinion. So if you are going to get on people for that.... shut it down yourself.

    You haven't posted a so-called "fact" yet, except one that shows (paradoxically) that Welker actually runs deep patterns less frequently than Amendola, and that his average depth of pattern is less frequent than Amendolas, and one that sayds he plays less in the slot which is pretty easy to guess because NE runs a 2TE offense 50% of the time where Welker stands where the slot stands but has no outside WR and thus isn't a true slot. 

    It's incredibly rude to write people off for having an opinion, when you offer nothing more than that yourself. Rude and unfair and stifling to good conversation on the board.

    Lastly, again CJ drops tons of passes. IT's a huge flaw. There was (iirc) a whole article in Bleacher Report debating if some of his "greatness" was due to the fact that they force the ball to him so often. 

    I know this ... he isn't on my top five WRs list for sure ... because dropping the ball a lot is a bad thing. 



    Very well said!

     
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