In response to TFB12's comment:
In response to PatsEng's comment:
In response to kansaspatriot's comment:
Here's the stat I like:
Amendola’s success rate is considerably higher at 21.9 receptions per drop.
Welker’s 11 drops last season were second-most in the NFL. Amendola’s drop rate (2.1 percent of targets dropped) rated second-lowest in the NFL.
Sounds like BB made the right call
It's a little hard to drop the ball when you aren't on the field to be thrown to. Fact is players with less looks tend to drop less balls, rate wise, then players that are targetted a lot. Notice the highest % drops usually comes from the players that are targetted the most.
You are correct PatsEng.
Obviously it stands to reason that the more opportunity you have to drop a ball, the more balls you will drop. KansasPatriot throws out the statement of Welkers drops comprared to Amedola's drop rate. Yes, Amedola's drop rate is lower but he didn't have near the passes thrown to him as Welker did. So he stops there and says Welker was at the top of the list in dropped passes. Well, he is good company then because as you see below there were some very good WR's who dropped balls last season.
Welker (15 drops), Calvin Johnson (14 drops), Brandon Marshall (13 drops), Victor Cruz, Eric Decker and Donnie Avery (all tied 12 drops) all led the league last season in dropped passes. But you gotta look inside the number for the whole story. It's easy for people to jump in here and point fingers and throw out stats when the stats they throw out don't paint the full picture. That's where they fail.
Welker had 133 catchable drops, his drop rate was 11.28%, Johnson at 10.29% drop rate, Marshall at 9.92% drop rate, Cruz at 12.24% drop rate, Decker at 12.37Z% drop rate and Avery at 16.67% drop rate.
According to KansasPatriot's comment I guess since Amendola's drop rate is low then he is better then Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, and Eric Decker too. Maybe he should go a bit further and see that Wes Welker, while had the most drops wasn't even in the top 15 in highest drop rates. Just for kicks, Donnie Avery was at the top of the list with 12 drops out of 72 catchable passes, with a 16.67% drop rate.
Since I have started paying more attention to peoples posts around here I am taken back by just how many people throw out blanket statements that really don't mean much when you fully look into the numbers. None is worse then Rusty, but there are several here who I have always taken as good, educated posters that follow Rusty's lead here with posting shallow comments acting like they are facts.
See, this is the problem with this entire forum. You are all riled up about something and being emotional here.
No one said Amendola's drop rate makes him better than Calvin Johnson: in fact, it's a strawman argument YOU are making up. The whole comparison is basically absurd. One is a giant deep-threat, RZ threat type WR, another is a slot-type guy. They are so different.
By virtue of that, you can't even compare. Amendola will never command the deep quadrants the way that CJ can. He doesn't put the vertical pressure CJ can on a defense. He doesn't dominate a side of the endzone. He can't outleap people for passes that CJ can. CJ will get millions because he CAN do all sorts of things that DA cannot. Even if he drops more passes ... the other ways he dominates make up for it.
That said ... Welker cannot do anything more than DA can do, and evidence suggests he is even less versatile altough only by a little.
THEREFORE, having a discussion about 19 drops to 1 drop is a valid discussion. They are worth comparison on so many levels.
In fact the only things that muddy the numbers are system (Amendola arrives from a trad 11 system, Welker from a 2TE system) and the frequency of reps (Welker was part of an offense that ran 20% more pass plays as St Louis) and the caliber of QB they play with (Brady vs Bradford).
Those are "facts", but ones that need interpretation or extrapolation in the discussion.
But ... even if you apply YOUR criteria ...
Numbers are facts.
He drops less passes, a whole bloody lot less passes than Welker. This is true by frequency and total number, no matter which way you measure it. It's something he does better.
His numbers before coming to NE are the same (roughly) as Welkers were.
He runs deeper routes on average. He runs deeper routes more by frequency.
He is also faster. (fact)
He is also taller. (fact)
He is also younger. (fact)
These are facts (yes man, they are facts) that are out there that people look at on balance. There are tons of facts you could look at for Welker too to discuss the comparison as a balance of pros and cons.
Metrical comparisons, projecting how those drop rates might look if he were in a system where he saw the reps Welker saw is just the discussion.
Lastly, your "opinion" that Welker would be a better choice is just that ... an unfounded opinion. So if you are going to get on people for that.... shut it down yourself.
You haven't posted a so-called "fact" yet, except one that shows (paradoxically) that Welker actually runs deep patterns less frequently than Amendola, and that his average depth of pattern is less frequent than Amendolas, and one that says he plays less in the slot which is pretty easy to guess because NE runs a 2TE offense 50% of the time where Welker stands where the slot stands but has no outside WR and thus isn't a true slot.
It's incredibly rude to write people off for having an opinion, when you offer nothing more than that yourself. Rude and unfair and stifling to good conversation on the board.
Lastly, again CJ drops tons of passes. IT's a huge flaw. There was (iirc) a whole article in Bleacher Report debating if some of his "greatness" was due to the fact that they force the ball to him so often.
I know this ... he isn't on my top five WRs list for sure ... because dropping the ball a lot is a bad thing.