Re: Welker vs Amendola Metrics
posted at 3/25/2013 11:57 AM EDT
In response to PatsEng's comment:
In response to kansaspatriot's comment:
Here's the stat I like:
Amendola’s success rate is considerably higher at 21.9 receptions per drop.
Welker’s 11 drops last season were second-most in the NFL. Amendola’s drop rate (2.1 percent of targets dropped) rated second-lowest in the NFL.
Sounds like BB made the right call
It's a little hard to drop the ball when you aren't on the field to be thrown to. Fact is players with less looks tend to drop less balls, rate wise, then players that are targetted a lot. Notice the highest % drops usually comes from the players that are targetted the most.
You are correct PatsEng.
Obviously it stands to reason that the more opportunity you have to drop a ball, the more balls you will drop. KansasPatriot throws out the statement of Welkers drops comprared to Amedola's drop rate. Yes, Amedola's drop rate is lower but he didn't have near the passes thrown to him as Welker did. So he stops there and says Welker was at the top of the list in dropped passes. Well, he is good company then because as you see below there were some very good WR's who dropped balls last season.
Welker (15 drops), Calvin Johnson (14 drops), Brandon Marshall (13 drops), Victor Cruz, Eric Decker and Donnie Avery (all tied 12 drops) all led the league last season in dropped passes. But you gotta look inside the number for the whole story. It's easy for people to jump in here and point fingers and throw out stats when the stats they throw out don't paint the full picture. That's where they fail.
Welker had 133 catchable drops, his drop rate was 11.28%, Johnson at 10.29% drop rate, Marshall at 9.92% drop rate, Cruz at 12.24% drop rate, Decker at 12.37Z% drop rate and Avery at 16.67% drop rate.
According to KansasPatriot's comment I guess since Amendola's drop rate is low then he is better then Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, and Eric Decker too. Maybe he should go a bit further and see that Wes Welker, while had the most drops wasn't even in the top 15 in highest drop rates. Just for kicks, Donnie Avery was at the top of the list with 12 drops out of 72 catchable passes, with a 16.67% drop rate.
Since I have started paying more attention to peoples posts around here I am taken back by just how many people throw out blanket statements that really don't mean much when you fully look into the numbers. None is worse then Rusty, but there are several here who I have always taken as good, educated posters that follow Rusty's lead here with posting shallow comments acting like they are facts.