What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from MD37. Show MD37's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    I liked the call to go for it on 4th down.  You play to win... not to lose.   I may have gone with two running plays on 3rd and 4th down to move the chains... but it is what it is.  Good, gutsy call... from a great coach.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from scubber. Show scubber's posts

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    Not sure if anyone has gotten into the actual odds, or the potential odds on this decision.  I think if one does they will realize that Belichick made the best decision for the Patriots to win. My odds are by no means specific, but they're probably similar to what the coach thought at the time.  Bottom line is, are the odds better that the Pats make the play on 4th down than the difference between the Colts scoring a touchdown from 70 yards, or 30 yards.  Leaving out the possibility that the Colts could have actually returned the punt a few yards, giving them less than a full 70 to go, but we're all generalizing here.  So here it is:  The odds from what I've read and heard are about 60 percent plus that the Pats make a first down on the 4th and 2 play.  You have to decide what the difference between the odds on a 30 yard touchdown drive and a 70 yard touchdown drive by the Colts would be.  Even if you give the Colts a 90-95% chance of scoring a touchdown from 30 yards, you would have to give them less than a 30-35% chance of scoring a touchdown from 70 yards.  So if you think there was a 1 in 3 chance that the Colts would have scored after a solid punt then you should side against Belichick's decision.  If you think (like I do) that the chances of the Colts scoring were at least 50/50 then you have to side with Belichick's decision.  I think ultimately people will realize that Belichick played the odds correctly.
    Posted by ml55


    Except I don't buy the 60+% chance of making the first down on 4 and 2 deep in your own territory with the game on the line.  60+% is probably true for any other normal situation.  How many times in any game that the defense needs to make a stop at the end of the game, and it usually does it.  I am not saying you and Bellichick does not have a point here, it just normally has not been done this way, and for me for good reasons.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from MVPKilla2009. Show MVPKilla2009's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    They just went over the stats on 98.5 the sports hub and 76% of the time that the Pats go for it on 4th down with 2 yards to go they convert that play. And when they pass in that situation they converted 69% of the time so again it was the right call.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from HawaiiBostonguy. Show HawaiiBostonguy's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    I say put the pressure on the Colts to march 80 yards and EARN it!  Anything can happen- fumble, Int, penalties, etc. Also, how about a little pressure on Payton? He had way too much time to look over the field. Furthermore, they ran the exact same play as the 3rd down play. If you need 2yds you run your pattern for 5! not on the first down line! I miss Parcells creativity. They didn't fool anyone but themselves.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from sday4x4. Show sday4x4's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    excellent call.........gutsy coach.......
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mardak. Show mardak's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    This is roughly equivalent to me disagreeing with the editor of the Globe about what the lead story is and what should be the paper's headline on a particular day. He may be wrong, I may be right, on that given day. But he has earned the right to be the editor of the Globe and as such he decides.
    The safety in Denver would have been considered weird too, if we hadn't held them to three and out back in the day. It's his team, he has earned the right to make those decisions.
    If this team wins the superbowl this year, this will all be forgotten or mentioned as yet another idiosyncracy.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dajepson. Show dajepson's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    It's a simple fact that his decision probably did give the team the best chance to win.  I know people tend to find math scary, but please take a moment to consider the following before calling for Belichick's head.

    The key variables here are the probability of converting the 4th down, the probability of the Colts scoring after a punt, and the probability of the Colts scoring after a failed 4th down attempt.  The Patriots' win probability if they try to convert the fourth down is P (4th down success) + P (4th down failure) x P (defensive stand from short field).  The win probability following a punt is P (defensive stand from long field).  This ignores the possibility of winning the game with a FG if the Colts scored too quickly, which further adjusts things in favor of the 4th down conversion attempt.

    We can conservatively estimate the probability that the Patriots would make the first down at 45% - this is how often the average NFL team succeeds on a two-point conversion attempt, a very similar scenario.  Estimating the probability that the Colts would score from short or long field is more tricky, but we can make an attempt.  First, let's say that "long field" means they are starting, on average, from their own 25.  This makes a very generous assumption of an average 47-yard net on a punt.  Let's assume, for simplicity, that "short field" means starting from the 30, as actually happened in the game.  Now, we can make use of the fact that driving 75 yards is more or less equivalent to driving 30 yards, driving 30 yards again, and driving 15 yards.  So whatever probability you assign to the Colts of driving 30 yards successfully, you can then do a little math to estimate the probability of their driving 75 yards successfully.  In probability, you work out the probability of multiple things happening by multiplying the individual probabilities together.  So if we assume that driving 75 yards = driving 30 yards AND driving 30 yards AND driving 15 yards, we see that our estimate of P (successful drive from 75 yards) will be P (successful drive from 30 yards) x P (successful drive from 30 yards) x P (successful drive from 15 yards.)  Basically, whatever value we assign to P (successful drive from 30), we raise this to an exponent of 2.5 to get an estimate of P (successful drive from 75.)  You believe that the Colts had a 90% chance of scoring from the 30?  Fine - but then they probably had a 77% chance of scoring from their own 25.  70% from the 30?  That gives a 41% from their own 25. 

    Here's the key point: if you assume that the probability of the Patriots converting the 4th down was 45%, then the punt only comes out ahead if you assume that the Colts' probability of scoring from the 30 was around 65%, which seems far too low.  Consider the 70/41 pair mentioned above (which I think is a lower bound for a sensible estimate in either case.)  Then the Patriots have a 59% chance of winning following a punt.  If they go for it, they have a 61.5% chance of winning either by a 4th down success or a defesive stand - again, the true value would take the probability of a winning FG following a quick TD into account as well. 

    The only remaining possibility to consider is that the method of relating the probabilities of scoring from short and long fields somehow fails to correspond to reality.  This would be true if time were a factor - if there were 45 seconds left, it would be disproportionately easier to score from 30 yards than from 75.  But with two minutes left, I see no reason why treating the field as independent 30 (and 15) yard sections should fail to give at least a reasonably accurate estimate of how the probabilities relate to each other.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from scubber. Show scubber's posts

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    They just went over the stats on 98.5 the sports hub and 76% of the time that the Pats go for it on 4th down with 2 yards to go they convert that play. And when they pass in that situation they converted 69% of the time so again it was the right call.
    Posted by MVPKilla2009


    Do they have stats for 4th and 2 within their 30 yard line or less with less than 2 minutes left?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Dizzie. Show Dizzie's posts

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    99.9% of those critical of Bill's decision, do not have any balls. It took guts. I think they got a bad spot. The announcers talked about "juggle juggle" IF he had gotten the correct spot and they went on to win, he would be considered a genious. Funny how everyone gorgets Maroney's fumble!
    Posted by shaboom


    and Tom's interception in the end zone.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from user_1338963. Show user_1338963's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    In Response to What did you think of Belichick's explanation?:
    New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick discussed his controversial fourth-down call during Sunday's game against the Colts at a press conference today. He said he thought his decision gave his team the best chance of winning the game. What are your thoughts about his explanation?
    Posted by BostonDotCom

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from user_1338963. Show user_1338963's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    In Response to What did you think of Belichick's explanation?:
    New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick discussed his controversial fourth-down call during Sunday's game against the Colts at a press conference today. He said he thought his decision gave his team the best chance of winning the game. What are your thoughts about his explanation?
    Posted by BostonDotCom

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from easyeight. Show easyeight's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

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    Lots of talking heads saying lots of things. Here is my two cents.. BILL SCREWED UP. You don't ever risk turning the ball over to PEYTON MANNING with two minutes, 3 timeouts and 30 yards to the end zone. You punt it and let the defense win the game. The same defense that had TWO INTs against Peyton Manning. The Colts were handed this win in a gift wrapped muffin basket with little red bows on it. Bill disrespected his defense. He sent a loud and clear message that he didn't believe his defense could stop Manning from a deep punt. Any other coach in football would get fired over this. Bill holds his players accountable, who is going to hold him accountable? My opinion means little though, I am just some Patriots fan sitting in cubicle at work surfing the internet on his lunch hour.  But guess what, here is the opinion of TEDY BRUSCHI. Remember Tedy, that tough as nails linebacker we all love? That helluva nice guy who played his heart out for 13 years and helped the Patriots win 3 rings. Tedy's opinion means more than any other talking head in the media, and other talking head on this response sections. Tedy's opinion speaks volumes. You can find his opinion on espn's website. Tedy basically says, it was a huge slap in the face of the Patriots defense, and if he was still playing, he would be steaming mad for weeks. We all know Bill is an arrogant guy who hates the media. Fine whatever, I don't care. If I ran into him as a fan in a restaurant, he would do anything to avoid dealing with fans. Fine whatever. He's a brilliant coach, but he messed up big time. Belichik needs to be help accountable. Someone please interview Robert Kraft!!!!
    Posted by MrScrappy77


    Best post so far. Sorry to Patriot's fans who stand by a terrible, inexcusable decision. And the Patriot's defense, well, if I were Brady and the offense I would be wondering how many points I had to score to ensure a win -- maybe if they had been 50 points ahead with four minutes to go, Patriot's fans could have rested easy...how many ways can you lose a football game...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from bostonirish333. Show bostonirish333's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

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    His EGO is bigger than Krafty's now. BAD coaching, bad roster decsions, no confidnece in D to win the game..Bad, bad, bad.
    Posted by Bosnorth

    What team are you watching?  Bad coaching?  BB is not perfect but he makes the right decisions the vast majority of the time.  What are his bad roster decisions?  Getting younger in the secondary with the likes of Merriweather, Chung, Butler, Mayo, etc?  Would you rather we have Harrison, Bruschi, Seau and Vrabel out there in their wheelchairs?  As for lack of confidence in the D, did you see Manning drive the Colts down field in the 4th quarter?  There's already some articles showing the Pats statistically had a better chance to win going for it than by punting.  So stop being so negative about the best coach the Pats have ever had and the guy that has consistently made then a solid team.  Even if the decision was wrong (which it wasn't) his good decisions FAR outweight the bad ones.  I like what he did considering it was Manning they were playing.  If it was the Jets, you punt.  But you don't want to give Manning another shot.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hoosierdaddy4. Show hoosierdaddy4's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    Welcome back to Indy, Belicheat.  Did you enjoy your stay?  Maybe you should try the Holiday Inn Express next time.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from easyeight. Show easyeight's posts

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    In Response to Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?:
    In Response to Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation? : I can tell from your post----you are a dickkk
    Posted by gmbill


    No, I think you have it reversed...Belichoke screwed up...if I were on Defense, I would be pissed...but then again...how many points does Brady and the offense have to score to ensure a win...maybe if they were ahead by 50 points in the last four minutes, we could have rested easy...
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from user_1338963. Show user_1338963's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    Why does it matter?  When are "sports fans" going to realize that anything produced by professional sports is JUST ENTERTAINMENT!  And it certainly doesn't warrant headlines or even news.  Why isn't it being reported in the Entertainment section of the newspaper?  And, the North Attleboro football team dedicated their game/season to a fallen Veteran, and this rag didn't consider it newsworthy.  Same on Boston.com and the rest of you aholes!
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ml55. Show ml55's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    Scubber - when you're playing the odds you don't take the situation into account.  This is a theory the Boston Red Sox (with Theo and Co) believe in fully.  You don't account for clutch when making decisions....and even if you were you'd have to give Brady the benefit of the doubt here.  The odds Brady and the offense pick up 2 yards here is greater than the odds the defense holds the Colts at 70 yards over 30 yards.  No matter what else you hear from any of the talking heads, understand that he played the odds correctly.
    All I've been hearing is that you have to trust the defense to stop the Colts, but then you're ignoring the trust you have in your offense...to get 2 yards.
    And the bottom line is, had they got the two yards and ran out the clock nobody is saying this was a terrible move, just an insane one.....by an insane genius.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from MVPKilla2009. Show MVPKilla2009's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    "Do they have stats for 4th and 2 within their 30 yard line or less with less than 2 minutes left? "

    Does it matter? You said it was a bad call to go for it but teh number support teh coach and he knew that. People like you love to think you know all but teh fact is Belichick does this for a living and he knew what he was doing. Did it work? no and that stinks, but was it a "dumb" call? No it was not because according to teh numbers we convert that play 76% of the time. And not to mention that Faulk got the first down and we were robbed.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from CoachBeOnDrug. Show CoachBeOnDrug's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    Cut coach some slack he has THREE Super Bowel rings.  

    Coach will take us to another Super Bowel even though the defense suckz.

    YOU GO COACH !!!
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from sodiumpentothal. Show sodiumpentothal's posts

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    Cut coach some slack he has THREE Super Bowel rings.   Coach will take us to another Super Bowel even though the defense suckz. YOU GO COACH !!!
    Posted by CoachBeOnDrug


    Love the moniker...
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from evreternal. Show evreternal's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    i get the decision....i didnt want the defense going back out when i thought they would punt...same feeling i had in the SB against Giants...i just didn't think the 'D' could stop them....their offense was moving the ball quite good most of the game...i figure if i don't feel good about the 'D' going back out there he probable didn't either...i will say the 'D' did good for a lot of the game & i think they will learn a lot from this & gain from it...they can beat the colts i believe
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from scubber. Show scubber's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    In Response to Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?:
    Scubber - when you're playing the odds you don't take the situation into account.  This is a theory the Boston Red Sox (with Theo and Co) believe in fully.  You don't account for clutch when making decisions....and even if you were you'd have to give Brady the benefit of the doubt here.  The odds Brady and the offense pick up 2 yards here is greater than the odds the defense holds the Colts at 70 yards over 30 yards.  No matter what else you hear from any of the talking heads, understand that he played the odds correctly. All I've been hearing is that you have to trust the defense to stop the Colts, but then you're ignoring the trust you have in your offense...to get 2 yards. And the bottom line is, had they got the two yards and ran out the clock nobody is saying this was a terrible move, just an insane one.....by an insane genius.
    Posted by ml55

    Of course, you would say that, the situation does not count especially with the Redsox.  Except in baseball, there are stats like hitting percentage with men in scoring position, or against lefties, righties, head to head against against certain pitchers, day and night stats, certain ball parks, with 1 outs or 2 outs, how many should I count the ways, etc.... Bellichick went unconventional and we lost, hignsight is perfect but good decision is not the ones that make your team loose.  It's just another game but I can't see calling this decision a good one.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from patsfanNH. Show patsfanNH's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    Coach made the right call. The media just got an awesome opportunity to pile on him. Agreed the time management was bad. But In the end the interception and the fumble in the endzone played a part.

    But again this is just a reg season game and there is no guarentee that Indy will win againt ravens, jets or denver...This is a game from which the pats will come out stronger..

    Put this behind and focus on the road ahead
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from easyeight. Show easyeight's posts

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    In Response to Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?:
    I call b.s. on all these people coming out of the woodwork saying "it was a gutsy call" and supporting Belichick.  There's only one answer to this question - its was the WRONG call, and everybody knew it.  I agree with rodney Harrison - worst call I've ever seen Belichick make.
    Posted by anyoungmike


    I agree. There was nothing gusty about. It was stupidity. Even if the Pats had made the play, they still might have had to turn over the ball to Manning. Given the way the Pats defense was playing, there still was a chance Manning could have won the game. But before Belichick made the decision, the Pats defense had already pretty much given up the game. The Pats were hanging on by their fingernails. But why not let the defense decide the game. Give them a chance to make up for the weak play in the fourth quarter and win the game. A few years ago when the Pats defense was unstoppable, Belichick would not even have considered going for fourth and 2. He would have had confidence in his defense to make bad things happen to Manning and friends. That is why I think the Pats could will not go all the way this year. Belichick realizes that the defense only can be effective for three quarters...
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from TeddyDrewschi. Show TeddyDrewschi's posts

    Re: What did you think of Belichick's explanation?

    We Boston fans are so loyal we can't even admit the coach made a bad call.  All of these posts defend Belicheck.  Some even say winning the game didn't matter, which I would never expect to hear.  Did it not matter when we lost the Super Bowl by 3 because Belicheck didn't want to try a 49-yard field goal?
    Are you kidding? 4th and 2 at your own 28?  Does he have that little faith in the defense?
    Sick show of loyalty Boston fans.  Maybe sometime we can take the blinders off and let the guy know he made a mistake.  It might make him a better coach.  But that's probably impossible, right?

     
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