Stats from Pats's website

 

year	rush	ypa	comp	at	ypc	tp	% rush
2011	438	4	402	612	8.6	1050	42%
2010	454	4.3	331	507	7.9	961	47%
2009	466	4.1	390	592	7.7	1058	44%
2008	513	4.4	339	534	7.1	1047	49%
2007	451	4.1	403	586	8.3	1037	43%
2006	499	3.9	326	527	6.8	1026	49%
2005	439	3.4	352	564	7.7	1003	44%
2004	524	4.1	293	485	7.7	1009	52%
2003	473	3.4	320	537	6.8	1010	47%
2002	395	3.8	374	605	6.2	1000	40%
2001	473	3.8	306	482	6.9	955	50%
Total	5125					11156	46%
average	466					1014	46%

2008 was Brady injury

2004 was Corey Dillon.  We ran it 5x less per game this year compared to that year

Overall we ran it 2x less per game in 2011 to the average over the 11 year period

2011 to 2004 is the largest disparity, understandable with a HOF RB

So I am trying to understand the "balance" argument?  Is it changing to 5 more rushes per game in a passing league?

In 2011 on a play I have a 100% chance of 4 yards versus a 65% chance of 8.6 yards.  What do I do?

If we are talking about situational rushing I think that is a whole other story focusing on the OC

OK guys have at it

What is there to understand?

If you have a 1,400 yard all-pro rusher you run it 525 times, so yeah 5x more per game, like a 55-45 'balance'

If you have 800-1,100 yard rushers like Smith, Maroney and Green Ellis you rush 465 times a year and it's a 60-40 disparity

We won SB's in 01/03 with the same quality rushing game people have whined about here every since Dillon's one great season... yet it was the defense that was vastly superior to the teams of the past 6 years that was the real difference.

Of course the best Pats team ever, and one of the best teams in NFL history IMO, was the '04 team that had both the elite back AND defense.

So if we add a great RB we'd be even more dangerous, but it certainly isn't as important as fixing the D, considering our passing attack is the best it has been in all but 1 of those 11 years...

I agree on the D and in fact it was proven out by my review of the stats that opposing teams did in that timeframe. Do peple want a run heavy defense even with the way the rules interpretations now favor the passing attack?

My point is that the problem is not in the run; it is the complementary parts of the game that have made a difference

Dillon carried the ball 345 time the last time the team won a championship.

Since then they have gone with under-sized dancers and tried to outsmart the game. 

Antowain Smith carried the ball 287 times.

They need a feature back - preferably a big bruising feature back.  That is the formula that has worked. 

still there has not been that much of a change on a pg basis.  on a per carry basis the difference between 2004 and 2011 was a tenth of a yard.

I ask the run advocates, what is the proper split, run/pass?  Is it to take the ball out of Brady's hands and give it to a back who will take three years to develop?

I guess I don't understand; 2 SBs both last minute losses and we need the feature back? 

I think having a defense that could make a 17 point score stick once or twice a season is the formula that worked. 

In Response to Re: what is the running game over past 11 years?:


exactly

that pretty much expanded on my line of 'I'd rather better the D than have an elite RB'

I agree we don't need elite RB. But we need a stouter Defense. I think we are headed for the draft fix. The FA's we got are decent but I expect a couple go getters in the draft.

well think of it another way...... 5 extra rushes per game could very well mean 2 to 3 minutes in TOP....if the Pats has 3 minutes more in TOP in the Super Bowl...what would the result have been? Not to mention the less tired defense that couldnt get to Manning in that last drive because they were worn out.
A better running game DOES help a suspect Defense too

In Response to Re: what is the running game over past 11 years?:

In Response to Re: what is the running game over past 11 years?:

Stats from Pats's website

 

year	rush	ypa	comp	at	ypc	tp	% rush
2011	438	4	402	612	8.6	1050	42%
2010	454	4.3	331	507	7.9	961	47%
2009	466	4.1	390	592	7.7	1058	44%
2008	513	4.4	339	534	7.1	1047	49%
2007	451	4.1	403	586	8.3	1037	43%
2006	499	3.9	326	527	6.8	1026	49%
2005	439	3.4	352	564	7.7	1003	44%
2004	524	4.1	293	485	7.7	1009	52%
2003	473	3.4	320	537	6.8	1010	47%
2002	395	3.8	374	605	6.2	1000	40%
2001	473	3.8	306	482	6.9	955	50%
Total	5125					11156	46%
average	466					1014	46%

2008 was Brady injury

2004 was Corey Dillon.  We ran it 5x less per game this year compared to that year

Overall we ran it 2x less per game in 2011 to the average over the 11 year period

2011 to 2004 is the largest disparity, understandable with a HOF RB

So I am trying to understand the "balance" argument?  Is it changing to 5 more rushes per game in a passing league?

In 2011 on a play I have a 100% chance of 4 yards versus a 65% chance of 8.6 yards.  What do I do?

If we are talking about situational rushing I think that is a whole other story focusing on the OC

OK guys have at it



Provpats


What I see when I look at this is.....

When we have had a better balance we were more successful and usually went deeper in the playoffs(2007 withstanding although we know how well that pass heavy offense did in the most important game).

01,03,04,06,all ended in afc championship births and 3 SB victories. We were more difficult to defend against.

2010 we went back to a balance and Brady threw 4 interceptions the entire season. We were one of the most efficient offense's in NFL history but then went away from that balance in the playoff loss to the Jets as we gave our 1,000 yard 13 td back all of 9 carries for 43 yards.

2010 may have been Brady's best season and possibly one of the best seasons for a QB in NFL history. We ran as much as we passed and were unpredictable. You couldn't stop us, and we went 14-2. Actually our only 2 losses had the exact same ratio in pass to run att's. 36 pass to 20 runs in both losses....no balance.

In 2011 we had 89 more plays from scrimmage but 105 more pass attempts???, at 35 years old I do not think it wise to have Brady throw more then he ever has in his career...it is asking for injury!

Now to take it a step further....The Post season. If we do not have a well oiled run game(as in finely tuned) we falter in the playoffs when we are forced to run the ball by good defense's that play a pass heavy set. We struggle and then give up and turn to our crutch Tom Brady. It is unfair to Brady and makes our offense predictable.

Anyway I'm glad you brought this up as until this last season these stats show that we are most successful with a better balanced offense... Now lets trade for a quality veteran RB and help Tom Brady win another Sb as opposed to hoping he can do it all by himself.

In Response to what is the running game over past 11 years?:


To me, the difference comes with the "look" they give the defense when they break the huddle.

Since Weis left it's been almost exclusively the shotgun/spread formation look.

Brady has been under center and running play-action (which he totally excels at) far less often over the last five years.

These days when the Pats run it's almost always out of the shotgun (not all the time, but almost) and it's usually just to "fool" the defense. OR, they're running the ball in the 4th quarter because they have a big lead and they're trying to milk the clock.

I guess what I'm saying is that when Weis was their O.C., the running game was an integral part of their gameplan and what they were trying to accomplish during the game; since Weis left, the running game has pretty much become a sideshow to divert the defense's attention, or a tool to try and shorten games in the 4th quarter.

My view is that when you've got one of the best play-action faking QBs in NFL history, he's got to be under center more often and in the shotgun less.

That's the big difference to me. It's not the number of attempts, but the way they make those attempts.

"My view is that when you've got one of the best play-action faking QBs in NFL history, he's got to be under center more often and in the shotgun less"

"That's the big difference to me. It's not the number of attempts, but the way they make those attempts. "

I completely agree Hardright. You have a habit of summing things up.

my point become that even at the greatest differential, it amounted to only 5 more run plays per game.  I believe this is not  enough; I also find it convenient that you leave out 07 and 11 as success stories; as I said we were plays away from winning those SBs.  We could have easily lost to the Rams as well

I will have some defensive stats tomorrow that will show the D of 01-07 was much more dominating and as expressed above worked with a complemetary football scheme.

The running game was not a more integral part of the game in the early 2000s; the differences in those years with the exception of 2004 was not meaningful.  The league has also changes rules wise during that time frame as well

In Response to Re: what is the running game over past 11 years?:


as compared to once again having Harrison, Law, Bruschi, Vrabel, McGinest, Seymour talent?

2004 was the best season, they could do just about anything. Even though the receivers were not as good as the past few seasons having Dillon out there had teams worried, opening things up for the passing game. With an average to below average back out there defenses don't give the same respect as with a guy like Dillon. Even though they may have run it near the same amount as they do now, Dillon presented the threat. Having a guy like him now would make this offense unstoppable, even with the same ratio of pass to run. That would be awesome, maybe Ridley, Vereen, or they bring in another guy via trade to do that. 

Balance to me means an equal number of runs and passes per game, or per quarter, keeping defenses off balance. Not building a huge lead via the pass against weak teams,than running it in garbage time etc. Or doing a draw play up the middle on 3rd and long and getting lucky etc. Power running like the days of Corey Dillion is what I like!

In Response to Re: what is the running game over past 11 years?:


The D was more dominant but that does not mean that our D is bad now. Last year we regressed a bit and had one of our worst statistical defense's(at least in terms of total defense which to me is almost a meaningless stat) but even with that we were top 15 in ppg allowed!

In the post season we had one of the best defense's and if stats are not your barometer for post season success I challenge you to watch the games again. We hit the Giants hard the entire SB. It reminded me of the dynasty defense in that regard.

I do not dismiss them as success stories. I point out that when we had a better run/pass balance we were more successful in post season play. Look at the 06 afc championship game against Indy. We scored over 30 points yet Reche Caldwell was our #1 wr. He was out of the league next season.

how do you explain that our offense was more successful in the post season with Caldwell then it was with Moss? Or Gronk/WW/Hern? You can't. We are a one dimensional offense with an open play book, no screens, no gadget plays, no variety in play calling. We rely on Brady to adjust at the l.o.s and hope for the best.

Do you discount that the teams with better balance were more successful in post season play? The offense scored more points with less talent and had better t.o.p. The proof is in the pudding broski.

In Response to Re: what is the running game over past 11 years?:


A logical and inteligent post (that the village idiot will try to poke holes though). It'll go like this...

You're an idiot! Did you even go to college? Ugh...let me educate you with my vast football knowledge. First of all today's NFL is different than the NFL you're talking about. This is the salary cap NFL (I know that was the salary cap NFL as well, but stats are meaningless) and we are "rebuilding". Do you expect a defense that is rebuilding to match the output of a seasoned and more talented defense? You are a spoiled childish troll that can't comprehend team building, the salary cap or zone defense.

How do you know that BJGE is not Corey Dillon? He was never given the chance with Brady dictating this team and offense. Benny could very easily turn into a guy that gains 15k yards before his career is over...he's probably just a slow starter - and will blossom as his legs get older and even slower. Do you know this guy has never fumbled? I mean never. He once took a shot by the ice cream truck that passes by his grandma's house and you know what? He held onto that damn ball; he took a 87 yard loss, but he held onto it. This is a guy that if you just give him the ball=we win. Run the football=we win. Brady=mean dictator/loser.

Now go back to playing Madden on your mom's Xbox in the basement. Maybe later she'll make you a frozen pizza and spread some oxy10 on your pimpled nose:)

Thanks for reading and learning,
Rusty 

Look at how teams defend us, they play nickel and dime, becuz they know we have a great passing attack AND that we WONT consistently run the ball enough to make them pay for playing all those dbs in the game.

Also great point above about taking brady from under the center and constantly being in shotgun, the guy is a master at the play action pass, the most frustrating thing is seeing a 3rd and short situation and we go empty set, basically telling the defense we are not running it.  You have to make defenses guess, we have been doing that less and less over the years and you would think with brady getting older they would try to slow down the pass rush and not put as much pressure on tom but weve been doing the complete opposite. Hopefully ridley can hold on to the ball, becuz hes def more explosive than bjge was.

and I am saying your dismissal of the suceess in 07 and 11 is cherry picking   If you look at the 06 game the D could not hold a 21 point lead; in 09 they got run out of the stadium in a disgraceful defensive performance. 

The "balance" you love to talk about is not statistically meaningful.  The PS failures could just as easily have been success in 07 and 11 and we would not be talking a dynasty again.

you take 06 as a success; I consider it a dismal failure compared to 07 and 11

In Response to Re: what is the running game over past 11 years?:

In Response to Re: what is the running game over past 11 years?:

In Response to Re: what is the running game over past 11 years?:
[QUOTE]Look at how teams defend us, they play nickel and dime, becuz they know we have a great passing attack AND that we WONT consistently run the ball enough to make them pay for playing all those dbs in the game. Also great point above about taking brady from under the center and constantly being in shotgun, the guy is a master at the play action pass, the most frustrating thing is seeing a 3rd and short situation and we go empty set, basically telling the defense we are not running it.  You have to make defenses guess, we have been doing that less and less over the years and you would think with brady getting older they would try to slow down the pass rush and not put as much pressure on tom but weve been doing the complete opposite. Hopefully ridley can hold on to the ball, becuz hes def more explosive than bjge was.
Posted by gman101019[/QUOTE]

Absolutely 100% correct. Teams have cheated toward the pass, any fan here would admit that I would hope. They do it because we will never consistently run. That is fact. We have ran the ball 3 times in a row twice that I can remember the last 3 seasons.

Brady is now 35, to continue with this pass happy offense is ill advised. If any here would dispute that then they must know something about 35 year old QB's that the rest of us don't.