Re: What the stats say about play calling: run or pass?
posted at 4/7/2014 9:22 PM EDT
Z - running has no affect on play action? Really?
No it has none. Whether it is run to open a game, late in a game, after a run, after a series of runs, whetehr the team runs well, or whether they run poorly, and whether they run a lot or run a little, has no effect on play action.
I will repeat what I wrote: it's been studied to death.
The only time I've seen a statistical analysis of PA passes come to a conclusion, the only conclusion they could come to was that great QBs are great at PA pass. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rogers, and Drew Brees (four QBs who live in the shotgun and pass more than they run) are uniformly the best PA passers in the league year in and year out.
Minnesota, Kansas City, and other dominant run teams are uniformly the worst PA passing teams in the league (KC improved when they picked up Smith). Despite the fact that they have RBs that actually inspire fear, no one bites on their fakes.
They also have mediocre pass blocking lines, so perhaps they stink at selling the action? That would involve something else.
We've seen games that the Pats couldn't run and the PA was completely covered. [snip]
Who is we? This forum? PE. Come on man. This forum,and a select few posters, will "see" the same thing in every single game because they want to. I don't listen to anything most people say here because it's a giant pizzeling match of stubborn people who don't get out of the house enough and are still backing statements they made years ago despite ages of new evidence and changes.
Case in point. Two seasons ago when they "ran" more, everyone was in a rush to posit Brady's PA rating that was cited in one article as being near the top of the league. They forgot to mention he was also near the top of the league in 2011, 2010, and 2007. He is just good at passing, and the team is good at selling it.
What do I see? NE hit PA passes on play one, two, or three of the game. I see them hit them after passing several times, and I see them use them in hurry up wit the clock winding and hit them. Lots of noise, no signal.
"And I know it’s popular to argue that you can’t run play-action passes without an effective running game, but that’s just not true. Defenses play situations, not necessarily past rushing efficiency, so defenders typically bite up on play-action passes based on the down-and-distance, not whether you’re averaging 5.0 YPC or 3.5 YPC."
Bill Belichik on PA and the running game:
" I would say that most defensive players get their keys from the offensive line and the tight end. Now, unless there’s no fake at all, which sometimes you see a quarterback fake this way and the back go the other way and you’re like, ‘What’s the point?’ But if there’s any kind of legitimate mesh at all, I would say that the bigger key to the play is the action of the offensive line and the tight end more so than the quarterback and the back.”
The whole point of that article is Bill being very candid about PA pass. He assents that running well can help a little, and that being in the right situation can help too a little, but the "bigger key" is the look you present.
And teams don't think "run" because you ran before. They think "run" partly because there is tape that says you run in a particular situation, and they mostly do it because of down and distance. I mean, the Pats run PA passes out of shotgun all the time, and they do them very well. You fake the to RB, the OL takes off with a low pad level like a run block, and you have a PA pass. If you do it in a situation where the other team is expecting running plays, you might have a slightly larger degree of success. IF you do it in a ridiculous situation like 3rd and 18, no one will bite.
Watch a game next season, really dig in. They run PA out of shotgun several times a game. They are great at it. Brady has a stratospheric shotgun rating. They also average a ton of yards per carry out of shotgun too.
The idea that you run once, twice, three times, then pass, and only from PA, and somehow the defenders are going to stop reading their keys is simply untrue. It doesn't even make sense from a coaching perspective: I don't want my players thinking about the last play! I want them reading their keys at the LOS and seeing what the guy opposite of them is doing. What od I need free lancers thinking about the last play on the field for? That is called being off in la-la land.
Defenders are coached to read keys every single play. They respond toa situation (down/distance/score/time) and what you are showing them (out of the WR stems and offensive line) and formation is such a small part because formation is dealt with by matching personell.