Re: WHEN Tommy has another Outstanding season this year
posted at 7/1/2013 12:07 PM EDT
In response to wozzy's comment:
In response to anonymis' comment:
and what about the defense?
Belichick has always made due with a patch work defense, they've almost always played above themselves when the playoffs started.
The offense was soft, it started to show some grit last season when McDaniels returned and revived the running game, but it still has a ways to go.
If we want to be able to score more than 13 points (Ravens last year), 17 points (Giants 2011), get blown out by the Jets at home (2010), 14 points (Ravens 2009) or 14 points (Giants 2007) than we need to be tougher on offense, we need to be able to run the ball when opposing teams know we are trying to burn time off the clock, we need physical receivers who can outmuscle a defender for the ball, we need to be the best team in the NFL at converting third downs and we need to create manageable third downs by running.
Sorry but 14 points might have been good enough in the 80's if you possessed a shut down defense, in today's NFL that's the equivalent of a couple field goals. The defense has been steadily improving, this season with Adrian Wilson, Tommy Kelly, Armon Armstead and host of rookies they'll be noticeably better and hopefully improve in the area that most needs it; sacks. But we've lost because the offense couldn't execute in crunch time, a hallmark of Patriot's championships of old.
Well that's the problem.
Offenses can't score points when the D is on the field for 2/3rds the game.
Offenses can't run ball control when the D's is already eating up the clock.
Offenses are not likely to sit on a lead when the D is allowing scoring on 50% of their possessions and 75% in the second half. Allowing scores on 50-75% of drives means they are eventually going to take the lead if the O is not scoring at a significant clip.
Ball control offenses reduce possessions. The very LAST thing they want is to further reduce possessions.
Better O's thrive with MORE possessions, not LESS!
Based on points allowed and scored:
Since 2000, only 1 team (out of the top highest 25, rated offenses) has won a SB. The Saints in 09. Their D was also instrumental in that win with a pick on the last drive.
Since 2000, 5 teams with the top D in the league (out of the top 25 defenses) won the SB.
One of those was the 03 Pats. The 06 Pats D was rated slightly better in points allowed, than the 03 D. 14.8/14.9 ppg. The O played over their heads, despite a horrific drop. The D, not so much.
D's win championships. Period! The top rated D's in that time have allowed 10-15 points per game in that time period. There are many D's that still only allowing 13-15 points pg. The Pats just happen to not be one of them. Not since 2006, 7 long years!
Despite the high scoring game last year (due to high possessions,) Flacco does not win the SB without the D's picks, fumble recovery, goal-line stand on the final drive and ST score. It takes a village.
We have seen NONE of that when it mattered most, for years.
The Pats O has 4 of the top 25, rated O's in the past decade. 07,10,11,12. Problem is, you can't win with a D that can't get off the field, can't get a single 3 & out, can't make a goal line stand, can't get a pick and commits atrocious penalties, when it matters most.
It takes a village! The WHOLE village, not just 1/3rd of it!