Which teams have the best home field advantage?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Which teams have the best home field advantage?

    You’re reading this article FREE courtesy of me.  If the paywall shuts me off of here, look around for my power ratings and shockingly accurate point spread predictions.


    Certain stadiums have apparently given their teams a huge home field advantage over the last three years.  Others have little or no advantage.  Inquiring point spread geeks want to know which is which.

    If we seek causes for home teams succeeding, we might look for physical characteristics such as the thin air in Denver or the humidity in Miami.  We might look for the crowd acting as a 12th man at Arrowhead Stadium.  We might look for piped-in fake crowd noise used only when the visiting team’s offense is on the field, such as Bill Polian engineered in Indianapolis. 

    I took my own exclusive “stick a fork in them” near-final scores for the past three years and compared average victory margins at home with average victory margins on the road, for all 32 teams.  Because I believe that home advantages change as coaches change, as the rest of the NFL figures out one team’s particular advantage and as the commissioner bans unfair tactics, I weight my home-field margins to favor recent seasons.  I gave the 2011 season a weight of 1.00, the 2010 season a weight of 0.70, the 2009 season a weight of 0.49, and so on.  Before 2009, I assumed Jeff Sagarin’s standard victory margin for a home game versus an away game, 3.11 points each way.

    Here are my results for each team.  Divide by 2 to get each team’s home game margin or away game negative margin.

    sf          9.2

    bal        8.6

    gb        8.6

    sea       7.2

    sd         7.0

    atl         6.2

    ind        6.0

    chi        5.8

    jac        5.6

    pit        5.6

    no        5.6

    det       5.2

    min       5.0

    az         4.6

    kc        4.4

    nyj        4.4

    dal        4.2

    ten        4.0

    buf       4.0

    ne         3.6

    stl         3.6

    den       3.2

    cin        3.2

    hou       3.2

    car       3.2

    oak      2.4

    cle        2.0

    mia       0.8

    nyg       0.8

    tb         0.2

    was      -0.2

    phi        -1.4

    First, I notice nothing special about Denver.  The humidity advantage in Miami and Tampa Bay is pretty much gone, and there’s nothing special about Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  However, Green Bay, the icebox of the NFL, might have a legitimate climate claim as a great home field.  Chicago isn’t that much warmer in winter, and Chicago isn’t that far down the list.

    On the bottom of the list, Philadelphia almost looks like Eagles fans boo and backbite their own team.  Andy Reid is notorious for getting off to a slow start.  That may have something to do with the fans.

    Near the top is Baltimore.  Baltimore plays a physical game filled with 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalties.  I wonder if a key part of Baltimore’s game is the home crowd working the refs so that Baltimore players can more easily intimidate their various visitors.

    I’m curious as to why west coast teams such as San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle dominate the top of the list.  It could be because of their geographic isolation.  Dozens of teams east of the Mississippi all have to fly out 2000 to 3000 miles, through three time zones, and all of these teams’ away games are just as far away.  Distance and jet lag really can slow a team down.  This is a prime argument for not expanding the NFL to London.  The place might see 8 home victories and 8 road losses every single year.

    I’ve added all of these home game and away game figures into my point spreads for the regular season.  If I can get an extra 1.0-points of net accuracy out of these new home-field numbers, I’ll be happy.  For New England’s away game at Tennessee on 9/9, I take a raw point spread based on the two teams’ power ratings, then I add 1/2 of Tennessee’s home field advantage to Tennessee’s side, and I also subtract 1/2 of visitor New England’s home field score because they’re the away team.  For week 1 I get -2.2 points, slightly favoring visitor New England.  Tennessee is an average #16 team. 

    Note that, with the new scoring, New England sank to #2 in my power ratings behind San Francisco.  This happened because New Orleans has been a wimp on the road away from their southern dome, so playing New Orleans in Foxboro is a losing proposition from the word go.  New England hasn’t played a road game yet, and remember that there’s a notoriously low signal to noise ratio in preseason games.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?

    In Response to Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?:
    [QUOTE]Seattle, SF, SD do well because of the chronically weak divisions they are in, artificially lifting their score. Best home fields, I would say, and this is based ONLY off of being a fan for about 20 years and what I've witnessed: KC: They have a PHENOMENAL crowd. It's like a sea of red, they are loud and passionate and they play in an older style stadium. ie a 'bowl'. If they had a better team, nobody would even question them having the #1 home field advantage. DEN: Again, this has a LOT to do with the fans that pack the place. Add in the "mile high air", whether it's a reality or a mental hump to get over, it impacts games. SF: Surprisingly for a team on the West Coast, they historically have always had some of the best, loudest fans around. CLE: The "dawg pound" can not be over looked. I think a decade of being terrible has really hurt them. OAK: The "Black Hole" is horrifying for opposing fans/players. Sure, it has to do with an ugly history of very real gang affiliation that used to swarm to the stadium...but it's there. GB: The cheeseheads are in a class all their own. It's a different life-style there, football IS life in Green Bay, more so than anywhere else, and they show it on game days. Those are the only ones I'd separate. NE USED to be in that class, but money has driven out the enthusiastic fan in place of the couple who'd rather sit there looking important and not be bothered by some 'jerk' standing up and obstructing their view. I will say that I think just looking at results is extremely flawed. Some very bad teams have awesome fans, and a very real home field advantage that simply isn't enough to overcome the lack of talent. Well, between your post and mine, I expect this to go mostly unread. God forbid anyone string a few sentences together!! Hahaha
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]

    I agree with all of those. KC was always very tough, loud crowd. I wish that Gillette was that noisy. The Patriots would be near unbeatable at home. Denver was always a tough place too. I think it was 2003 when the Patriots finally broke through and won there. It was the game on Monday night that BB intentionally took a safety in the closing minutes. A great free kick, and then a 3 and out gets the ball right back for Brady who drives the team down the field and hits Givens with less than a minute to play. That was one of the most clutch games this team and Brady has played, and there were quite a few of them back then too. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?

    In Response to Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?:
    [QUOTE]Seattle, SF, SD do well because of the chronically weak divisions they are in, artificially lifting their score. Best home fields, I would say, and this is based ONLY off of being a fan for about 20 years and what I've witnessed: KC: They have a PHENOMENAL crowd. It's like a sea of red, they are loud and passionate and they play in an older style stadium. ie a 'bowl'. If they had a better team, nobody would even question them having the #1 home field advantage. DEN: Again, this has a LOT to do with the fans that pack the place. Add in the "mile high air", whether it's a reality or a mental hump to get over, it impacts games. SF: Surprisingly for a team on the West Coast, they historically have always had some of the best, loudest fans around. CLE: The "dawg pound" can not be over looked. I think a decade of being terrible has really hurt them. OAK: The "Black Hole" is horrifying for opposing fans/players. Sure, it has to do with an ugly history of very real gang affiliation that used to swarm to the stadium...but it's there. GB: The cheeseheads are in a class all their own. It's a different life-style there, football IS life in Green Bay, more so than anywhere else, and they show it on game days. Those are the only ones I'd separate. NE USED to be in that class, but money has driven out the enthusiastic fan in place of the couple who'd rather sit there looking important and not be bothered by some 'jerk' standing up and obstructing their view. I will say that I think just looking at results is extremely flawed. Some very bad teams have awesome fans, and a very real home field advantage that simply isn't enough to overcome the lack of talent. Well, between your post and mine, I expect this to go mostly unread. God forbid anyone string a few sentences together!! Hahaha
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]


    thanks for the info, thoughts and the post!
     
  4. This post has been removed.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?

    In Response to Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?:
    [QUOTE]Went to game in KC a couple of years ago, NE is Sunday Morning Church Service, compared to KC and their fans.
    Posted by bobbysu[/QUOTE]

    Lol, that's what I heard. A friend of mine went out there and said it was like nothing that he's seen here. He said that his ears were ringing for days after.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from csylvia79. Show csylvia79's posts

    Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?

    I do have to say have been to games inside century link field in Seattle, it is much louder than the RazorI think it has a lot do do with field design.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?

    In Response to Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?:
    [QUOTE]I do have to say have been to games inside century link field in Seattle, it is much louder than the Razor .  I think it has a lot do do with field design.
    Posted by csylvia79[/QUOTE]

    Yes exactly, also the hawks nest seating area has metal seats. The noise is amplified off the metal. If fans stomp their feet, it gets louder. The Giants went in there and had 11 false start penalties in a game once. It's considered the loudest outdoor stadium.  You know that BB will have the Patriots ready,  they will practice all week with the music blaring to prepare for that game.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from csylvia79. Show csylvia79's posts

    Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?

    In Response to Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage? : Yes exactly, also the hawks nest seating area has metal seats.  The noise is amplified off the metal. If fans stomp their feet, it gets louder. The Giants went in there and had 11 false start penalties in a game once. It's considered the loudest outdoor stadium.  You know that BB will have the Patriots ready,  they will practice all week with the music blaring to prepare for that game.
    Posted by sporter81[/QUOTE]

    I'll be one of the people in the stands wearing Pats gear.  Now my wife will be in all seattle gear. She was born and raised in WA.  So all day she will get high-fives while I get booed but its all in good fun.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?

    In Response to Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Which teams have the best home field advantage? : I'll be one of the people in the stands wearing Pats gear.  Now my wife will be in all seattle gear. She was born and raised in WA.  So all day she will get high-fives while I get booed but its all in good fun.
    Posted by csylvia79[/QUOTE]

    Yeah, that's always fun. That's what happens when I go to Celtics vs Lakers at the Staples Center. 

    Enjoy the game, I've never seen the Patriots on the road before, that would be pretty cool.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share