Re: Wild Card Round Playoff Predictions
posted at 1/2/2012 10:30 PM EST
My Wild Card round Power Ratings and Game of the Week
1 no 14.0 (last wk. 3) They have bashed in a few teams.
2 gb 13.7 (last wk. 2) No, I didn’t count the Detroit game. No Aaron Rodgers.
3 ne 13.5 (last wk. 1)
4 sf 12.3 (last wk. 4)
5 phi 11.5 (last wk. 9)
6 bal 10.5 (last wk. 6)
7 pit 10.3 (last wk. 5) They made Cleveland look pretty good.
8 atl 9.9 (last wk. 7)
9 hou 9.7 (last wk. 11) I didn’t count the Houston game.
10 mia 9.6 (last wk. 8)
11 nyg 9.3 (last wk. 20)
12 sd 9.2 (last wk. 10)
13 det 9.1 (last wk. 15)
14 nyj 8.5 (last wk. 12)
15 sea 7.9 (last wk. 14)
16 chi 7.6 (last wk. 17)
17 cin 7.5 (last wk. 16) That’s what the numbers say.
18 dal 7.5 (last wk. 13)
19 ten 7.5 (last wk. 19)
20 car 7.0 (last wk. 22)
21 az 6.9 (last wk. 23)
22 den 6.1 (last wk. 18) They’re not acting like a good team.
23 kc 6.0 (last wk. 24)
24 cle 5.7 (last wk. 28)
25 was 5.7 (last wk. 21)
26 min 5.7 (last wk. 26)
27 buf 5.3 (last wk. 29)
28 oak 5.2 (last wk. 25)
29 jac 5.2 (last wk. 27)
30 ind 2.9 (last wk. 32)
31 stl 2.8 (last wk. 30)
32 tb 2.2 (last wk. 31)
Last week’s game of the week, Norv’s vengeful hand from the grave against Oakland, came through in spades, the gravedigger’s traditional tool. This year’s streak is up to 9-3. I got way ahead of Vegas last year, I’m way ahead this year and the tea leaves say that I can do this year after year because I know how strong teams actually are. Next week’s predictions are:
Visitor / home / my points / the public’s opinion / the difference
pit den -1.9 -8.5 6.6
cin hou 6.2 3 3.2
det no 10.0 10.5 -0.5
atl nyg 2.3 3 -0.7
My playoff game of the week is Denver plus the points, maybe not Denver to win, don’t ask for the moon and the stars, but Pittsburgh’s abilities looked vastly inflated as of last Sunday. Big Ben Roofies most likely will get a little healthier, maybe, maybe not. My numbers already take into account the idea that teams will slowly revert toward their former glory/mediocrity. Denver’s bomb versus KC is also factored into the numbers. I inherently give Denver an extra point at home for their unique thin air and other unique stadium characteristics, but would probably not give that same point against Orton because he knows Denver. I think that Mendenhall (15 carries a week) being out in favor of Redman (6 carries a week normally) would be worth about 1 extra point for Denver because Redman’s performance of three quarters against a not-so-good Cleveland would be already half factored in, so let’s say Pitts by 0.9 points at the end. That still doesn’t get Denver a win, but it’s an honest chance.
Bonus: If I were a mobster fixing games I'd be all over the Denver game. It's a playoff game so the money would be moving around like mad. The game features a home underdog and the crowd would go wild to see them either win or come close, and then the home team would feed off of the crowd. The home crowd would explicitly not boo the ref for throwing his yellow hanky at a tickytack holding call, putting the football first and goal at the opponent's 1 yard line (is there really any other kind of mobster-approved referee call?) So, the tea leaves point to the Denver game, in favor of Denver.
Honestly, the mobsters don't care who wins as long as they get their million bucks profit or whatever. I'm a firm believer first in underpaid refs getting paid off and second in occasional players with gambling debts fumbling on command. The playoffs are the time when you can blame the "pressure" on the fumble.
Cincinnati at Houston is a battle of the rookie quarterbacks. My numbers favor Houston on top of the points. Cincy showed no particular interest in battling for a playoff berth but they got comped with a gift ticket anyways.