Heard this on the radio:

Look at playoff history. Most teams don't score over 30 points for all their games. Not even the greatest offenses. Last team to do it was in 2009 were the Saints, and in the NFC champ game it took OT to get to 30, and a pick 6 in the Super Bowl to reach 30.

Greatest show on turf failed to score over 24 in the NFC championship and Super Bowl (11 points and 23 points respectively). They scored 49 during the divisional round.

2010 Packers went 21, 48, 21, 31.

2008 Cardinals went 30, 33, 32, 27

2007 Patriots went 31, 21, 14

2011 Patriots went 45, 23, 17

 

Not saying history predicts the future. But it's interesting considering we're in an era that is more offense based. Whether it be defenses have figured out offenses by seasons end or refs don't call as many penalties, I don't know. Divisional round seems to be where the offensive explosions occur. Patriots haven't scored 30 over the Ravens since 1996, and theyre now without their best red zone weapon.

 

I'm picking the Patriots to win, but I think it's going to be extremely close. I also think it will be a game in the 20's as it usually is. I'm surprised that so many people are picking the patriots to score in the 30's when not only Patriots history, but NFL history in general points to them not scoring 30+. Of course, teams are meant to break trends and this Patriots could be that team. I hope I'm wrong and the Patriots win 52-0, in honor of Ray Lewis, but being realistic, I don't see it.

Can't solely win this game on offense. Still takes complete teams. I think this will be a Talib, Wilfork, Spikes, Nink game.

"Bad" Joe Flacco is due for an appearance

According the Ravens' fans, they will score 30+ and keep the Pats lower.  Who knows...  20 - 30 - 40  - 50, as long as it is one point more than the other team, it means a WIN!!  Winning big just means more bragging for some fans and those that picked it.

In response to agcsbill's comment:

+1.  As long as the Pats have one more point (but I think they'll need to score 30 at the least) 

Game rests on the oline and keeping Brady clean. If the oline has a great game, Pats win easily. If Brady is hit double digits, its a dog fight.

given the time, Brady will pick the injury riddled and aging Ravens defense apart. A half armed Manning with mediocre wides showed the Ravens deficiencies. 

Yes, they will score 35+ points.

In response to rkarp's comment:

Over in the Ravens' forums, they are BLASTING comments like this from this fan base.  As far as they are concerned, the Ravens' defense is rejuvinated and even better than the one the Pats faced in week 3.  What they haven't done is acknowledge the Pats D is also better and the offense now has a running game not seen in the previous game.  Selective reasoning across the board!

Yes

Pats 38

Raven 17

As I Posted Before...

 

In response to agcsbill's comment:

Pats fans do the same thing. Most fans do the same thing!

In response to NY-PATS-FAN4's comment:

Well I hope you're right. Fandom wants me to beleive they'll score 30 points.

But I'm also willing to bet that in each game, you made the prediction that the Pats would score more than 30.

In response to rkarp's comment:

Agree, they have to protect Brady. If they do he will pick them apart. They should run the ball too, the Ravens can be run on and the Patriots definitely have the guys to do it. 

Don't turn the ball over, protect Brady and they score over 30 points. The defense will probably come up with a turnover or two like usual.

In response to dapats1281's comment:

 

In response to NY-PATS-FAN4's comment:

 

Yes, they will score 35+ points.

 

Well I hope you're right. Fandom wants me to beleive they'll score 30 points.

 

But I'm also willing to bet that in each game, you made the prediction that the Pats would score more than 30.

 

If I had, I would have been right 11 out of 17 times this year, so as a bettor I would have won 65% of the time, which is pretty darn good. But my reasoning has more to do with the following:

 

1) My eyes do not tell me Balty's defense is as fearsome as it once was

2) That defense has played a ton of snaps over the past two weeks

3) The Patriots are nowhere near as one-dimensional on offense as they once were. You can no longer count on 4 good DL and a dime package to stop them on offense; they will (or, at least, can) run the ball down your throats if you go small. And the Ravens' LBs are not exactly speedy.

4) Previous Pats defenses have given up massive amounts of yardage, while hoping to stiffen in the red zone. This current defense is much better at 3-and-outs or 6-and-outs than it has been in quite some time. More possessions for the offense.

5) If the forecasted heavy winds come to pass, I believe that suits Brady far more than Flacco. Much, much harder to complete a 50-yard pass in 19-mph winds than to complete a 10-yard pass. Pats are much more used to scoring via sustained drives as opposed to big plays. And Pats' OL has been protecting Brady very well.

6) Flacco passing against Talib and Dennard at corners is a tougher task than he has faced in the past. He will have to be more accurate. Conversely, Laderius Webb on IR was a huge loss for Ravens DB coverage.

 

Of course, I could be wrong on any or all of these points.

Pats over the Ravens 24-20 with the Pats hanging on for dear life with the Ravens ending the game in the Pats red zone making us all a little grayer.

In response to ccnsd's comment:

Yikes....

 

In response to NY-PATS-FAN4's comment:

I agree with a lot of your points. I have some reservations though, and hopefully they won't come to fruition.

The 2011 Giants defense was pretty bad statistically. But they were a proven unit that turned it up in the playoffs, much like what the Ravens have done. Ravens have given up yards, but they stiffen up in the red zone...especially in situations with 10 yards or less to go.

Ravens actually seemed to get stronger on defense as the game went on. This was pointed out from something, but after the Thomas TD, Den couldn't get past their own 47 on three possessions. Now, that could be a case of Manning choking, but that defense still played pretty well to close out the game.

As for the tired thing, that was the first thing I thought of immediately after the game. The guy I worry most about is probably Suggs. He missed almost the first two months of the season, so while he's played a lot of snaps recently, he's played 8 less games than players who play the full season. Ray Lewis also got a bunch of time to rest after being injured. Same with Ellerbe.

 

Most importantly, it's just the nature of these games. Even in '07, when the Pats were undefeated and the Ravens were sub 500, the Pats were a Rex Ryan timeout away from losing the game.

 

I still like the Pats, but I'm less confident about this game than I would be had we drawn Denver.

28-17 Pats

In response to dapats1281's comment:

I would agree that Denver in New England is an easier match up than the Ravens in New England but I believe Balt in NE is much easier than NE in Denver because of the altitude. I think veteran teams like Baltimore with good defenses can win on the road easier than offenses who struggle with the noise. 

In response to dapats1281's comment:

I agree with NYPATS...  ( and I like his disclaimer... Lol).  basically, there are too many positive changes going for this years team to just refer to past years performances.  Even the game this year seems meaningless since the defense has been transformed.

You really have to look at what is going on right now with these teams...  Pats offense is out performing ravens in both yards and points ... And pats defense has developed into an intimidating swarming aggressive unit that has multiple moving parts playing with speed.  Flacco will not have a good feeling facing this unit for the first time and I wouldn't be surprised if his first long ball attempt is picked off.  Pats will be sitting on it.  Front 7 will bottle up rice and pitta.  Flacco will be flustered and his OLine will not hold up to multiple patriot pressures. 

Brady on the other hand is on a mission .  This offense is hitting with young fast players Hern, ridley, vereen, and solid veterans Welker, Lloyd , branch, and Huey.   The blockers are going to push around rayvens defense and wear them down.

I don't think this game will be close.  More like 31-10.

no idea but if they did I would certainly like our chances

It will be cold. If it gets windy it could effect the passing game (though the long ball more than the shorter game).

If the two teams come out unable to score early the final could be more like 17-13! It also means that a drop, a fumble, any sort of turnover or long return to swing the game more than it would otherwise.

I think Pats score betwee 27 and 35 points and win but these will be two revved up teams that will be desperate not to make critical mistakes. That could delay scoring.

30+

In response to agcsbill's comment:

In response to rkarp's comment:

Game rests on the oline and keeping Brady clean. If the oline has a great game, Pats win easily. If Brady is hit double digits, its a dog fight.

given the time, Brady will pick the injury riddled and aging Ravens defense apart. A half armed Manning with mediocre wides showed the Ravens deficiencies.
Over in the Ravens' forums, they are BLASTING comments like this from this fan base.  As far as they are concerned, the Ravens' defense is rejuvinated and even better than the one the Pats faced in week 3.  What they haven't done is acknowledge the Pats D is also better and the offense now has a running game not seen in the previous game.  Selective reasoning across the board!

The big issue is whether Balt's defense works at all this week after pulling double overtime versus Peyton Manning in Denver's rarified air. 

 

Ladarius Webb was quite good at covering Wes Welker in last year's playoffs and earlier this year.  That's was, not is.  Webb is now on Injured Reserve.  The next guy, Corey Graham, is reportedly in the middle of the NFL pack at coverage and so he could get burned up by Welker, who burns lots of people. 

Linebackers who can cover Hernandez are scarce.  Famous linebacker Ray Lewis has lost two steps and is a big red flag in coverage over the middle, where most of Tom Brady's passes go.  It's not just me saying this:  try    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/01/18/3tfo-ravens-patriots-afc-championship/   Worse for Lewis, he badly hurt his finger at Denver last week.  LB Dannell Ellerbe also stinks at coverage, but isn't as bad as Lewis.  For an AFC Championship Game, the matchup problems are pretty extreme. 

Baltimore's one defensive advantage is a pretty good set of pass-rushing defensive ends, including Arthur Jones, Pernell McPhee and Haloti Ngata. 

Balt's defensive tackles are blubbery but easily moved around for the inside run game.  Think, "America Waddles on Dunkin."  Linebacker Ray Lewis makes up for their ineptness against the run, which is why Baltimore keeps him.  Just a guess, but the two fat ones won't be able to catch up if New England pulls one or two offensive linemen to the outside, which New England likes to do.  Lewis's ability to run sideline to sideline is probably also a concern for Baltimore.

On the other side of the ball, Torrey Smith going deep is a big part of the Baltimore offense.  His deep threat opens up Baltimore's run game.  Unfortunately for Baltimore, that wind and cold on Sunday night will shut off Baltimore's deep ball.  There's a good chance that Baltimore has to cough up the football too quickly, and so Brady gets more shots to produce 30 points or more.  Brady's standard 6 yard pass over the middle isn't that affected by a moderate wind.

No bragging necessary! Patriots are going to hang a 40 spot on the Ravens!

 

Over the last 8 games the Ravens have played, they've averged just under 24 pts/game.  Over the last 8 gmes, the Pats have averaged just over 37 pts/game.  To me this is telling: No matter who they play, win or lose, the Ravens don't score a lot.  By the same token, the Pats, win or lose, score a lot of points.  I just don't think the Ravens can keep up, period.