Your Thoughts on the Cap

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from WazzuWheatfarmer. Show WazzuWheatfarmer's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to PatsEng's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    DT is the weakest position.  Hoping one or both of Wilfork or Kelley can heal up, rework their contract, and come back as an effective starter.  No guarantees there.  Siliga and C. Jones are good depth guys.  Armstead would be  a bonus.  I'd like to see some money spent on a higher-end FA here (Arthur Jones?) and a high draft pick used here as well.

    DE we are good at starters with Chandler and Nink, and I think Buchannon is a quality depth player as well.  Again, I'd like to see Jared Allen signed if he doesn't want too much, and a mid-round pick used here as well.

    LB we are in pretty good shape as long as Mayo returns healthy.  Collins and Mayo on the outside with Hightower at MLB is pretty strong.  Fletcher will probably be back cheap, and Beaharnis is there too for depth.  Maybe a cheaper vet in FA if the right guy is there, and I think a developmental guy or 2 can be found on day 3 of the draft.

    S is the other obvious weakness, but I like McCourty and I also like Harmon.  Probably one of Ebner or T. Wilson will stick as a ST ace/depth Safety.  Definitely need to find a quality vet in FA and probably draft a rookie at some point too.

    CB is tricky without knowing Talib's status.  If he is resigned, we are fine.  Talib and Ryan/Dennard as outside starters is pretty strong, and I still think Arrington can get it done in the slot, even though everyone else on this board hates him.  Don't forget justin Green, too.  Good developmental kid who could stick as a #5 CB.  If Talib leaves, then we need to sign a vet to replace him ( DRC???)

    offense is deep.  I won't bother to break it all out, but remember that we have some promising guys on futures deals like Mark Harrison, TJ Moe, Braxton Cave (I wouldn't be surprised if they let Wendall walk because of this guy if Wendell wants too much).  I'm not saying that all these guys are going to make the team or even be any good, but if even 1 or 2 do then that is significant.  I also think that most of our 2nd year guys should be able to make significant strides going into next season, and that would really help our WR corp.  TE is the one spot where we obviously need immediate help (Finley?) and a early draft pick.  All in all, I think our roster is in pretty good shape.  Lots of youth.  Need to develop the guys we have, and add some key pieces to get us over the hump.

    [/QUOTE]

    On D though you keep on mentioning starters but they aren't depth so that's what my comment was towards. Lets face it we have no depth on the D side of the ball. BB lost fiath in Buchanan and at LB Beaharnis played less than 0.1% of snaps. I'm not even sure you can call him depth. Again, they need a lot of pieces for depth. They need at least 1 LB, 1-2 DEs (depending on Buchanan), 1-2 quality DT's (on top of the 3 who spot started this year fighting for a spot or two), 1 more CB and I'd say at least 2-3 more Ss (I'm not counting the Wilson's so thinking Harmon and McCourty are our only Ss right now). That's a lot of bodies right there.

    Now I agree that O has a bit more depth but here's the problem:

    RB we need a 3rd down scat back to bu Vereen for when he gets injured.

    WR depth isn't an issue but quality starters really is. Plenty of #3/4 guys right now though I'd agree

    OL the T positions look good if they can come back healthy and could use another swing G but C has zero right now.

    TE it's basically Gronk who is oft injured and Mulligan....... yeah zero depth there right now

    The O needs a handful of depth pieces too and a couple of starters also. All in all I'd say we'd need at least a dozen depth pieces and an upgrade to a half a dozen starters or so right off the bat. That's a quarter of the roster which needs depth or starters added which is asking a lot right now. So that's where I was coming from wondering why you thought we had depth.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't disagree with any of your thoughts.  Some of the young guys like Buchannon and Beauharnis will pan out, some will not.  No team has a perfect roster.  Ours isn't bad by any stretch.  Room for improvement,  but we will go into the 2014 season with one of the best teams in the nfl.  I have no doubt that BB will fill holes effectively through FA and the draft.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to TFB12's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Thanks, TFB12.  Any thoughts on who they should pursue in free agency now that you've freed up some serious coin?

    [/QUOTE]


    Jimmy Graham, Revis, Talib, Vontae Davis, Edelman and Decker or Edelman and Nicks, T.J. Ward, Arthur Jones, Linval Joseph, take your pick at DL and OL.

    Get us 3 or 4 (LOL) of these guys and I am happy.  One must be a WR though.

    [/QUOTE] What's up TFB12? Are the only guys you think they should sign?? Hell they have 12 mil in cap space and you only named 9 guys....Of those guys Talib,Edelman and A.Jones are viable. Graham was Franchised,Revis's contract is beyond a nightmare,Nicks has seen his better days,after the Gronk hit by TJ Ward the only way BB would sign him is if he volunteered to be a tackling dummy,Decker would be nice butg I'm sure Goober will take and give the Broncos some of his money to keep him, those last two guys OL and DL sound promising though...


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoMorePensionLooting. Show NoMorePensionLooting's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    Who or what determines what the CAP will be?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Who or what determines what the CAP will be?

    [/QUOTE]

    it's based of revenue for that year. So more ads, tv deals, internet broadcasts and stuff like that means more money and a higher cap

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ghostofjri37. Show ghostofjri37's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Who or what determines what the CAP will be?

    [/QUOTE]


    I believe there is a revune model agreed to in the CBA. I believe that is how it is determined.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    In response to ATJ's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    True, the point of my thread was to challenge the forum to think a little more holistically about team building in the context of cap management.  To be candid, one can isolate any one aspect of the process and draw conclusions. However, approaching the process in totality is another matter.  No one question is hard.  Answering all while building a winning team may very well be.

     



    And I appreciate the exercise. I was asking pro to prioritize his sense of needs. He listed a few questions he deemed as hard or difficult for this team moving forward. I viewed most as relatively easy solutions.  That is not to say I have any inclination as to what Bill Belichick will end up doing, but I dont see a lot of tough decisions.

     

    We have almost 13 million in room. We have almost 20 with some cuts that appear to be guaranteed...soap and Connoly(-13 rating as a guard for the 2013 season). We have either 8 in savings if Wilforks career is over or probably 5 if it is not(extension). So, without getting into a prediction thread on who we will draft or what FA's we will go after and sticking to your premise about the cap, I would say we are looking at 22 to 25 million in cap room. Imo that leaves little in the way of tough decisions and provides a more then ample amount of room for a team coming off its 3rd straight afc championship game with 27 million on injured reserve. Some holes to fill due to injury or free agency are DT, TE, C, CB, and competition for a strong safety.

    Cant wait to see what happens.

    [/QUOTE]

    I prioritzed player needs at the end of my post.  I said the questions were hard because it's hard to predict what the Pats will do, there's a lot of information we don't have, and every move is interrelated, so it's hard to say what we'll do in one area if we don't know what we are doing in every area.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoMorePensionLooting. Show NoMorePensionLooting's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    Thanks to you both.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to TFB12's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Thanks, TFB12.  Any thoughts on who they should pursue in free agency now that you've freed up some serious coin?

    [/QUOTE]


    Jimmy Graham, Revis, Talib, Vontae Davis, Edelman and Decker or Edelman and Nicks, T.J. Ward, Arthur Jones, Linval Joseph, take your pick at DL and OL.

    Get us 3 or 4 (LOL) of these guys and I am happy.  One must be a WR though.

    [/QUOTE]

    You think Graham or Revis could be had for a price that will fit under the cap and still sign two or three more?  You, sir, are a genius!

    [/QUOTE]


    Sure, I think BB could approach TFB and ask for another restructure.  Maybe extend him out to 2020.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to sportsbozo1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to TFB12's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Thanks, TFB12.  Any thoughts on who they should pursue in free agency now that you've freed up some serious coin?

    [/QUOTE]


    Jimmy Graham, Revis, Talib, Vontae Davis, Edelman and Decker or Edelman and Nicks, T.J. Ward, Arthur Jones, Linval Joseph, take your pick at DL and OL.

    Get us 3 or 4 (LOL) of these guys and I am happy.  One must be a WR though.

    [/QUOTE] What's up TFB12? Are the only guys you think they should sign?? Hell they have 12 mil in cap space and you only named 9 guys....Of those guys Talib,Edelman and A.Jones are viable. Graham was Franchised,Revis's contract is beyond a nightmare,Nicks has seen his better days,after the Gronk hit by TJ Ward the only way BB would sign him is if he volunteered to be a tackling dummy,Decker would be nice butg I'm sure Goober will take and give the Broncos some of his money to keep him, those last two guys OL and DL sound promising though...


    [/QUOTE]


    Hey Bozo, good to hear from you.  Well, on page 1 I outlined how to get another $19 million in cap money so they could use that too.  I have a few more names I could add to the list if there was any CAP money left over.  Might even be able to get Fitz from Arizona!  BTW, I think BB will be okay getting Ward, BB never holds any grudges.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to TFB12's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to TFB12's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Thanks, TFB12.  Any thoughts on who they should pursue in free agency now that you've freed up some serious coin?

    [/QUOTE]


    Jimmy Graham, Revis, Talib, Vontae Davis, Edelman and Decker or Edelman and Nicks, T.J. Ward, Arthur Jones, Linval Joseph, take your pick at DL and OL.

    Get us 3 or 4 (LOL) of these guys and I am happy.  One must be a WR though.

    [/QUOTE]

    You think Graham or Revis could be had for a price that will fit under the cap and still sign two or three more?  You, sir, are a genius!

    [/QUOTE]


    Sure, I think BB could approach TFB and ask for another restructure.  Maybe extend him out to 2020.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not entirely sure that TFB would buy into that but even if he did that's an awful lot of space that you'd have to get from that.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from stinkman. Show stinkman's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to TFB12's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to sportsbozo1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to TFB12's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Thanks, TFB12.  Any thoughts on who they should pursue in free agency now that you've freed up some serious coin?

    [/QUOTE]


    Jimmy Graham, Revis, Talib, Vontae Davis, Edelman and Decker or Edelman and Nicks, T.J. Ward, Arthur Jones, Linval Joseph, take your pick at DL and OL.

    Get us 3 or 4 (LOL) of these guys and I am happy.  One must be a WR though.

    [/QUOTE] What's up TFB12? Are the only guys you think they should sign?? Hell they have 12 mil in cap space and you only named 9 guys....Of those guys Talib,Edelman and A.Jones are viable. Graham was Franchised,Revis's contract is beyond a nightmare,Nicks has seen his better days,after the Gronk hit by TJ Ward the only way BB would sign him is if he volunteered to be a tackling dummy,Decker would be nice butg I'm sure Goober will take and give the Broncos some of his money to keep him, those last two guys OL and DL sound promising though...


    [/QUOTE]


    Hey Bozo, good to hear from you.  Well, on page 1 I outlined how to get another $19 million in cap money so they could use that too.  I have a few more names I could add to the list if there was any CAP money left over.  Might even be able to get Fitz from Arizona!  BTW, I think BB will be okay getting Ward, BB never holds any grudges.

    [/QUOTE]

    If they ever signed Ward and got Revis and fit this under the cap i  would SHAT MY PANTS!  we got some good pipe dreaming going on. Get on the phone with the Arizona GM AND GET fITZGERALD. I know he restructered his contract he will hand him to us. We have 12 million in cap space just do it find a way. lol will cut wilfork and trade amendola to the jets, and deal mallet for a first rd pick.  al right back on my meds lol.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    I really appreciate the input we've gotten thus far on the team building process while dealing with the cap.  Like to see more, particularly from those who have been particularly critical of the way BB does business. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to ATJ's comment:

     

    I really appreciate the input we've gotten thus far on the team building process while dealing with the cap.  Like to see more, particularly from those who have been particularly critical of the way BB does business. 

     



    I would say I've been mildly critical of the way the Pats do business.  In general, I think BB does a good job emphasizing team fit, value, and flexibility over individual talent.  Especially given our low draft position every year, this makes sense.  It also fits with Belichick's coaching style and strengths.  

     

    At the same time, I do think the team has had serious holes in talent at some positions that have come back to bite the Patriots in the playoffs and have also left them vulnerable to injuries to key players like Gronk.

    The two things I'd like Belichick to do just a bit differently are:

    1. I'd like him to be willing to sign just one or two quality veteran free agents at positions where we are weak and need help.  This might mean having to take a cap hit of 5 to 8 million for the free agent.  Most teams are willing to do that selectively, but the Pats have been very reluctant to do so. We typically have had few players with that kind of salary and those we have had tend to be guys we drafted and re-signed rather than free agents brought in from other teams. Money doesn't directly mean quality, but there is some correlation.  I sometimes think the Adalius Thomas signing scared the Pats too much.  Yes, he wasn't a great signing--but do you completely give up on the tool of signing good veterans just because you got burned once?
    2. While trading down in the draft is a good way to increase the odds of finding a gem in the lower rounds and building depth on the team, history has shown that most of the top quality players do come from the top part of the draft.  Personally, I think a few more first round picks would help the Pats and so I'd like to see them trade up just a bit more (as they did with Hightower and Jones).  While we have found some good players in the lower rounds, we also end up with a fairly large number of mediocre players who don't last long. This doesn't mean the Pats are choosing poorly in the low rounds--but since most players chosen in those rounds by all teams end up being mediocre, the expected outcome of choosing players in those rounds is to get mediocre talent. Belichick maybe beats the odds a bit more than other GMs, but the odds are still poor ones, and beating them usually requires taking on more risk by selecting players with injury and character concerns. 

    I understand there are downsides to the suggested strategy--there's more risk of running into cap problems, and the flexibility to change players and the depth Belichick values may be less.  At the same time, I see the Pats' playoff problems resulting in large part from talent gaps, and our current strategy hasn't been successful at filling enough of those gaps to produce a team that really is strong against the NFL's best playoff teams. 

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ATJ's comment:

     

    I really appreciate the input we've gotten thus far on the team building process while dealing with the cap.  Like to see more, particularly from those who have been particularly critical of the way BB does business. 

     



    I would say I've been mildly critical of the way the Pats do business.  In general, I think BB does a good job emphasizing team fit, value, and flexibility over individual talent.  Especially given our low draft position every year, this makes sense.  It also fits with Belichick's coaching style and strengths.  

     

    At the same time, I do think the team has had serious holes in talent at some positions that have come back to bite the Patriots in the playoffs and have also left them vulnerable to injuries to key players like Gronk.

    The two things I'd like Belichick to do just a bit differently are:

    1. I'd like him to be willing to sign just one or two quality veteran free agents at positions where we are weak and need help.  This might mean having to take a cap hit of 5 to 8 million for the free agent.  Most teams are willing to do that selectively, but the Pats have been very reluctant to do so. We typically have had few players with that kind of salary and those we have had tend to be guys we drafted and re-signed rather than free agents brought in from other teams. Money doesn't directly mean quality, but there is some correlation.  I sometimes think the Adalius Thomas signing scared the Pats too much.  Yes, he wasn't a great signing--but do you completely give up on the tool of signing good veterans just because you got burned once?
    2. While trading down in the draft is a good way to increase the odds of finding a gem in the lower rounds and building depth on the team, history has shown that most of the top quality players do come from the top part of the draft.  Personally, I think a few more first round picks would help the Pats and so I'd like to see them trade up just a bit more (as they did with Hightower and Jones).  While we have found some good players in the lower rounds, we also end up with a fairly large number of mediocre players who don't last long. This doesn't mean the Pats are choosing poorly in the low rounds--but since most players chosen in those rounds by all teams end up being mediocre, the expected outcome of choosing players in those rounds is to get mediocre talent. Belichick maybe beats the odds a bit more than other GMs, but the odds are still poor ones, and beating them usually requires taking on more risk by selecting players with injury and character concerns. 

    I understand there are downsides to the suggested strategy--there's more risk of running into cap problems, and the flexibility to change players and the depth Belichick values may be less.  At the same time, I see the Pats' playoff problems resulting in large part from talent gaps, and our current strategy hasn't been successful at filling enough of those gaps to produce a team that really is strong against the NFL's best playoff teams. 

    [/QUOTE]

    And this is exactly what I was hoping to see, pro: thoughts on what those who would criticize would do instead.  Thank you.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    In response to ATJ's comment:

     

    I really appreciate the input we've gotten thus far on the team building process while dealing with the cap.  Like to see more, particularly from those who have been particularly critical of the way BB does business. 

     



    I would say I've been mildly critical of the way the Pats do business.  In general, I think BB does a good job emphasizing team fit, value, and flexibility over individual talent.  Especially given our low draft position every year, this makes sense.  It also fits with Belichick's coaching style and strengths.  

     

    At the same time, I do think the team has had serious holes in talent at some positions that have come back to bite the Patriots in the playoffs and have also left them vulnerable to injuries to key players like Gronk.

    The two things I'd like Belichick to do just a bit differently are:

    1. I'd like him to be willing to sign just one or two quality veteran free agents at positions where we are weak and need help.  This might mean having to take a cap hit of 5 to 8 million for the free agent.  Most teams are willing to do that selectively, but the Pats have been very reluctant to do so. We typically have had few players with that kind of salary and those we have had tend to be guys we drafted and re-signed rather than free agents brought in from other teams. Money doesn't directly mean quality, but there is some correlation.  I sometimes think the Adalius Thomas signing scared the Pats too much.  Yes, he wasn't a great signing--but do you completely give up on the tool of signing good veterans just because you got burned once?
    2. While trading down in the draft is a good way to increase the odds of finding a gem in the lower rounds and building depth on the team, history has shown that most of the top quality players do come from the top part of the draft.  Personally, I think a few more first round picks would help the Pats and so I'd like to see them trade up just a bit more (as they did with Hightower and Jones).  While we have found some good players in the lower rounds, we also end up with a fairly large number of mediocre players who don't last long. This doesn't mean the Pats are choosing poorly in the low rounds--but since most players chosen in those rounds by all teams end up being mediocre, the expected outcome of choosing players in those rounds is to get mediocre talent. Belichick maybe beats the odds a bit more than other GMs, but the odds are still poor ones, and beating them usually requires taking on more risk by selecting players with injury and character concerns. 

    I understand there are downsides to the suggested strategy--there's more risk of running into cap problems, and the flexibility to change players and the depth Belichick values may be less.  At the same time, I see the Pats' playoff problems resulting in large part from talent gaps, and our current strategy hasn't been successful at filling enough of those gaps to produce a team that really is strong against the NFL's best playoff teams. 

     



    This is very well put and expressed my views exactly.

    1) Why not extend slightly more and pay for a quality starter? Sometimes it doesn't pay off but no worse than two or three lower quality players that fail and you have to replace year in and year out. So take a chance every so often. If you have a hole that you need filled with a starter you have to on occassion spend starter quality money to get them. Contray to popular belief around here it doesn't mean spending top 3 money and getting every big name FA on the market. But why not trade for a Boldin and extend him, or sign a Bryant, or go after a better quality WR?

    2) The mid rounds is great for depth. Good places to get depth pieces the issue is you rarely get starters and the lower you go in the draft the less chance of getting a starter. So while trading back from the 1st gets you a "haul" you don't get the quality of starters. Combine this with the reluctancy to get starters via FA and you front 22 suffer. For years Wilfork had no one next to him and we've been grinding him to the hilt. S has been an issue for years upon years. WR has been a glaring need for a while. They finally moved up to get the like of Jones and Hightower and it looks like both moves are going to pay off so why move back away from that when it seems to work?

    I would like to add two more things to the list as well

    3) You can't fill your team with red flags. It's true you can find a hidden gem every so often and they are cheaper but for the vast majority red flags fail because of those red flags. You can afford to take on a couple here or there if you have a strong team. But when a 1/4 of your starters are known to have injury problems you can't be surprised when you have injury issues through the year. Pick and chose your red flags more carefully. Gronk is a unique talent, well worth the chance on red flag. Amendola is not a unique talent, maybe you could extend a bit further for a more reliable player. And if you are going to start red flags give them proper backups. Who backed up Vereen? Arrington taking over for Talib? I love Hooman as a #3 but no reason he should be starting with Mulligan backing him up in a TE based O? If you are going to count on these guys you have to invest more into their direct backups knowing they might eventually go down. As for non injury red flags maybe not give them as much upfront money? Make it incentive laden. I know I said you have to pay for talent but there is talent without red flags to pay for no need to give up front money to someone who can't stay in one place longer than a year at a time.

    4) Don't get stuck on certain traits when drafting players. At times it feels like BB gets hung up on certain numbers and either skips over good players because they don't exactly match his numbers (he has admitted to his prior) or he over extends on a player taking them well before their value because they match those numbers (ala T. Wilson). Sometimes talent trumps all, esp in early rounds. Most times it lines up talent and numbers but on occassion you have to go for the talent and target a player instead of having a group of 6 and saying well this one has a 4th round grade and this a 2nd but you know this one has better 3 cone numbers so lets grab him in the 2nd over this other player.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    Great stuff, guys.  Keep it coming.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    Was really hoping to have more contributions from those who have been critical of BB's approach.  Very interested in alternatives.  Thanks.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    ATJ, I'll add one more comment.  Based on the very limited data available to me (and I fully admit my data is limited and therefore not really enough to reach any definitive conclusions) it seems like (in recent years, at least) the Pats have had fewer players on their roster with cap hits above $4 million than have most other top teams.  There are lots of reasons why this may be (good luck in recent drafts, for instance, would limit the need for big contracts paid to veterans), but it does suggest that the Pats are not signing as many veteran free agents (either their own or from other teams) as most other championship teams.  Again, it's hard to find data from past years, so I can't really do a thorough analysis, but I did look at last year's top teams and really only the Broncos have a roster with so few players with cap hits of $4 million or more--and the Broncos, like the Pats in recent years, were not a well balanced team.  I think the 49ers and Seahawks were two of the best built teams in the NFL last year, and both had many more higher priced (and by "price" I mean cap cost, not actual salary) veterans than the Pats did.  Here, for consideration, is a comparison between the Pats' roster last year and the Seahawk's roster (the figures are 2013 cap numbers, including players on IR and other non-active lists)

    Cap hit of 4.00 million or more: Pats 5, Hawks 11

    Cap hit between 3.00 and 3.99 million: Pats 5, Hawks 3

    Cap hit between 2.00 and 2.99 million: Pats 6, Hawks 2

    Cap hit between 1.00 and 1.99 million: Pats 5, Hawks 3

    Cap hit between 800K and  999K: Pats 6, Hawks 5

    Cap hit less than 800K: Pats 37, Hawks 39

    You can see that the Pats and Seahawks have similar numbers of players paid below $1 million. The Seahawks, however, have more than double the number of players with cap hits over $4 million.  The Pats, meanwhile, emphasize the $1 to $3 million range a little more. (Average cap hit per player in the NFL is probably about $1.8 million--I don't have the exact figure, but if you divide the team cap amount by 70 players, you'll get a figure like that.) 

    Now I understand that cap cost doesn't perfectly correlate with quality of talent.  I do believe, however, that the market for free agents isn't completely irrational and that there is at least some correlation between quality of talent and money paid.  Certainly, some of the Seahawks' higher priced players were over paid for their value.  Still, most of those high-paid guys were important contributors--mostly high quality starters or important rotational specialists. 

    The other thing that the numbers imply is that Seattle is more willing to sign veterans in the prime of their career.  In the NFL, players typically work under a rookie contract for about 4 years.  They reach their peak right around the time that first contract ends.  If they've done well, they demand the most money as they start negotiating their second contract.  That will typically be a 4 or 5 year deal, so when they get to their third contract they are entering their 9th or 10th season and getting toward the back end of their career, so their value naturally drops.  It seems to me that the Pats are very reluctant to sign guys who have done well under their rookie contract and are entering their prime.  These are the guys who are expensive, but many of them are also the best talent in the NFL.  The Pats instead focus on guys who didn't do quite as well in their first contract and are therefore cheaper when their second contract comes up or who signed shorter second deals (probably because they weren't quite so good and couldn't get a longer deal) or whose value has declined because they are getting old.  The young guy in his prime is just too dear for the Pats' wallet, it seems.  I acknowledge the Pats' extraordinary success over the years, so I'm not too critical of their approach.  At the same time, when I look at the playoff losses, I see teams that were fairly clearly overmatched by their opponents (Ravens in 2009, Ravens in 2012, Broncos in 2013) or that lost to fairly average playoff talent (Jets in 2010, Giants in 2011).  I see the reason for those loses as talent issues.  The other explanations given on this site seem to fall in three categories:

    • Brady stinks in the postseason 
    • The loss of assistant coaches and coordinators has crippled the team (leading to poor playcalling, poor offensive strategy, poor player preparation, etc.)
    • Bad luck

    Of those three, only "bad luck" (Muzwell's reason) has any credibility in my mind.  However, I don't think it's just luck--and in fact, I'd say if luck has played a role it's been more in helping the Patriots win (i.e., against the Ravens in 2011) than in hurting them.  I see real gaps in talent and think those explain the playoff struggles.  Now, the loss of players to injury (which has had an impact) can be attributed to bad luck, but I think the Pats have made themselves vulnerable to injuries to key players like Gronk by having too many holes in talent in some positions.  If the Pats had a better WR corp, for instance, they might be able to withstand an injury to Gronk.  As they've been built, though, the loss of Gronk really cripples the offense because there's just not enough other talent in the skill positions around around Brady to rely on.  And remember, Gronk is also one of those "value" picks who slid in the draft because of injury concerns.  I said in my earlier post that one of the downsides of BB's "trade down" strategy is that it tends to result in the Pats taking more risky players as they try to get first-round talent in later rounds.  Gronk and Hern both slipped for reasons--injury concerns and character concerns, respectively.  You can say it was just bad luck that the concerns materialized, but the concerns were real and known.  If you build your house on a California hillside, you can say it's "bad luck" when a mudslide wipes it away--but it's not just bad luck.  It was also a decision you made to build the house on a known risky site. 

    Anyway, the value strategy has been highly successful at producing consistently good teams (and attracting fans, if we're looking at it from a business perspective).  My one question is whether it gets the talent you need to really be a strong Super Bowl contender. 

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ghostofjri37. Show ghostofjri37's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     At the same time, when I look at the playoff losses, I see teams that were fairly clearly overmatched by their opponents (Ravens in 2009, Ravens in 2012, Broncos in 2013) or that lost to fairly average playoff talent (Jets in 2010, Giants in 2011).  I see the reason for those loses as talent issues.  The other explanations given on this site seem to fall in three categories:

    • Brady stinks in the postseason 
    • The loss of assistant coaches and coordinators has crippled the team (leading to poor playcalling, poor offensive strategy, poor player preparation, etc.)
    • Bad luck

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pro I would agree with you about being overmatched in the 2009 Raven loss. They were overmatched and outplayed from play 1 in that game.

    2010 against the Jets they were just as talented if not more talented than the Jets. Sometimes teams have better game plans and play better than other teams.

    2011 it came down to execution. The Giants in no way shape or form overmatched the Pats they just executed the plays that needed executed in order to win. If anything thing in that game the Pats stars let them down. regardless of who you want to blame Brady, Welker, Nink all had plays if executed would most likely have led to a win.

    2012 against the Ravens they were up 13-7 at half. They stopped the Ravens on the 1st drive of the 2nd half and then took the ball and drove down to the raven 33. On 3rd and 9 Brady hit Welker between the 8 and 3 at the raven 21 and Welker dropped the ball. Instead of a 1st down and possibly increasing the lead they had to punt and the entire momentum and complexion of the game changed.

    Yes this year in the SB the Denver O definitely overmatched the Pats D especially when talib went down.

    I just don't think you can broad brush being overmatched in those losses. Definitely in 2009 and for the most part on D this past year against the Broncos.

     

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Was really hoping to have more contributions from those who have been critical of BB's approach.  Very interested in alternatives.  Thanks.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'd kind of like to hear from those who won't be critical of BB in any sense to address Pro and I's concerns. Something other than look at the record, because having GOAT at coach and QB hides a lot and those who aren't critical will even admit without Brady and BB the coach this team might be around .500 or lower.

    I'd like to hear specific examples of the lower cost FA's used as starters that have worked, and by worked I mean lasted multiple years into their contract and were productive in full seasons vs the cost of all the players that have not worked which fit into the same mold.

    Which drafts trades which they moved back worked out vs players they could have had in those spots and vs all the times they moved back and it didn't work. Also need to consider if they still could of had the players they ended up receiving without needed to trade (ie Edelman in the 7th could have been taken with their own pick vs getting that extra pick via trade).

    Which red flag players have worked out well and weren't dismissed from the team because of those red flags vs resources spent on red flags that ended up being dismissed from the team due to red flags that were known prior to signing (ie locker room cancer Llyod/Haynesworth, decline in age A. Wilson/Ellis, injury concerns Fanene).

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to ghostofjri37's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     At the same time, when I look at the playoff losses, I see teams that were fairly clearly overmatched by their opponents (Ravens in 2009, Ravens in 2012, Broncos in 2013) or that lost to fairly average playoff talent (Jets in 2010, Giants in 2011).  I see the reason for those loses as talent issues.  The other explanations given on this site seem to fall in three categories:

    • Brady stinks in the postseason 
    • The loss of assistant coaches and coordinators has crippled the team (leading to poor playcalling, poor offensive strategy, poor player preparation, etc.)
    • Bad luck

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pro I would agree with you about being overmatched in the 2009 Raven loss. They were overmatched and outplayed from play 1 in that game.

    2010 against the Jets they were just as talented if not more talented than the Jets. Sometimes teams have better game plans and play better than other teams.

    2011 it came down to execution. The Giants in no way shape or form overmatched the Pats they just executed the plays that needed executed in order to win. If anything thing in that game the Pats stars let them down. regardless of who you want to blame Brady, Welker, Nink all had plays if executed would most likely have led to a win.

    2012 against the Ravens they were up 13-7 at half. They stopped the Ravens on the 1st drive of the 2nd half and then took the ball and drove down to the raven 33. On 3rd and 9 Brady hit Welker between the 8 and 3 at the raven 21 and Welker dropped the ball. Instead of a 1st down and possibly increasing the lead they had to punt and the entire momentum and complexion of the game changed.

    Yes this year in the SB the Denver O definitely overmatched the Pats D especially when talib went down.

    I just don't think you can broad brush being overmatched in those losses. Definitely in 2009 and for the most part on D this past year against the Broncos.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Ghost in 2011, the Giants dictated the game to the Pats. Without question the Pats weren't playing their game and the Giants played theirs. To say the Pats weren't outclassed in every way on D is quite truthful. The Giants dictated their will most the game and had long time consuming drives in which the Pats had a horrible 3rd down stop %. Now the Pats still almost won but that the Giants were still in complete control of the field. The Pats D couldn't get off of it and the Pats O couldn't stay on it.

    in 2012 we were up but a TD but that 2nd half was completely dominated by the Ravens. We didn't even have a chance in that 2nd half. They out scored us 21-0 in that half. You can blame Welkers 1 drop all you want but the fact of the matter is once Talib went down (shocker) our D was out classed and on O without Gronk it couldn't move the ball at all. We didn't have close to the same talent the Ravens had and it showed in that 2nd half.

    2010 though I agree we had the more talented team and it was one of those any given Sunday moments but all the other years mentioned the other teams dictated the game to us and they did so because they had better players on each side of the ball.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ghostofjri37. Show ghostofjri37's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to PatsEng's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ghostofjri37's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     At the same time, when I look at the playoff losses, I see teams that were fairly clearly overmatched by their opponents (Ravens in 2009, Ravens in 2012, Broncos in 2013) or that lost to fairly average playoff talent (Jets in 2010, Giants in 2011).  I see the reason for those loses as talent issues.  The other explanations given on this site seem to fall in three categories:

    • Brady stinks in the postseason 
    • The loss of assistant coaches and coordinators has crippled the team (leading to poor playcalling, poor offensive strategy, poor player preparation, etc.)
    • Bad luck

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pro I would agree with you about being overmatched in the 2009 Raven loss. They were overmatched and outplayed from play 1 in that game.

    2010 against the Jets they were just as talented if not more talented than the Jets. Sometimes teams have better game plans and play better than other teams.

    2011 it came down to execution. The Giants in no way shape or form overmatched the Pats they just executed the plays that needed executed in order to win. If anything thing in that game the Pats stars let them down. regardless of who you want to blame Brady, Welker, Nink all had plays if executed would most likely have led to a win.

    2012 against the Ravens they were up 13-7 at half. They stopped the Ravens on the 1st drive of the 2nd half and then took the ball and drove down to the raven 33. On 3rd and 9 Brady hit Welker between the 8 and 3 at the raven 21 and Welker dropped the ball. Instead of a 1st down and possibly increasing the lead they had to punt and the entire momentum and complexion of the game changed.

    Yes this year in the SB the Denver O definitely overmatched the Pats D especially when talib went down.

    I just don't think you can broad brush being overmatched in those losses. Definitely in 2009 and for the most part on D this past year against the Broncos.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Ghost in 2011, the Giants dictated the game to the Pats. Without question the Pats weren't playing their game and the Giants played theirs. To say the Pats weren't outclassed in every way on D is quite truthful. The Giants dictated their will most the game and had long time consuming drives in which the Pats had a horrible 3rd down stop %. Now the Pats still almost won but that the Giants were still in complete control of the field. The Pats D couldn't get off of it and the Pats O couldn't stay on it.

    in 2012 we were up but a TD but that 2nd half was completely dominated by the Ravens. We didn't even have a chance in that 2nd half. They out scored us 21-0 in that half. You can blame Welkers 1 drop all you want but the fact of the matter is once Talib went down (shocker) our D was out classed and on O without Gronk it couldn't move the ball at all. We didn't have close to the same talent the Ravens had and it showed in that 2nd half.

    2010 though I agree we had the more talented team and it was one of those any given Sunday moments but all the other years mentioned the other teams dictated the game to us and they did so because they had better players on each side of the ball.

    [/QUOTE]


    PatsEng, I would agree in 2011 regarding the play of the D. That being said it was a factor but the game was not decided because of that one issue.

    The Safety to start the game

    The 12 men on the field penalty which negated a turnover and led to a TD.

    The Brady Int after getting a 1st down close to midfield late in the 3rd. they were about to take control of the game.

    The Welker drop.

    The Nink offsides on 3rd & 4 at the Giant 11. It gave the Giants the ball for an extra 3 minutes and they punted from the pats 45 or so instead of their own 11 changing field position. To your point it would have been the only 3 and out the Pats D forced.

     The outcome or execution of anyone of those plays or combination of them would have resulted in a different outcome.

     

    As far as the 2012 Raven game is concerned we could debate this forever. Sometimes in football there are turning points that occur in games. Sometimes intangibles and momentum play a huge part in dictating the outcome of a game. I guess I would say this... they certainly were outplayed in the 2nd half of that game but for my money that play i referenced IMO turned the game in that direction.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to ghostofjri37's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

     

    PatsEng, I would agree in 2011 regarding the play of the D. That being said it was a factor but the game was not decided because of that one issue.

    The Safety to start the game

    The 12 men on the field penalty which negated a turnover and led to a TD.

    The Brady Int after getting a 1st down close to midfield late in the 3rd. they were about to take control of the game.

    The Welker drop.

    The Nink offsides on 3rd & 4 at the Giant 11. It gave the Giants the ball for an extra 3 minutes and they punted from the pats 45 or so instead of their own 11 changing field position. To your point it would have been the only 3 and out the Pats D forced.

     The outcome or execution of anyone of those plays or combination of them would have resulted in a different outcome.

     

    As far as the 2012 Raven game is concerned we could debate this forever. Sometimes in football there are turning points that occur in games. Sometimes intangibles and momentum play a huge part in dictating the outcome of a game. I guess I would say this... they certainly were outplayed in the 2nd half of that game but for my money that play i referenced IMO turned the game in that direction.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ghost even with all those misques in 2011 did the Pats have the lead with less than 3mins left and did the Giants have to drive 80 yrds to get the win? For everything that happened it all boiled down to the D making a single stop. Be honest, if the D in 11' had the same level of talent as the 01-04 teams do you think they make that 1 stop? There are plenty of examples each of us can give which effected the game, you point to Welker but you could also point to Branch and Hern in that same set of downs dropping balls, but in the end the Pats D didn't have the talent to make a single stop.

    With 2012, momentum does make a difference but only in tight games with little time left on the clock. When Welker dropped the ball they still had the lead and there was a whole half left to play right? That 1 drop didn't lead to the Ravens completely dominating the entire half. It doesn't work that way. I didn't see the coaching staff take off their headphones when it happened and start to pack up. Drops like that happen all the time and yes it can change the momentum but how many other instances with the Pats have we seen something similar and then a series or two later the Pats put together a drive that took the momentum back or the Pats D created a turnover. A single play at the very beginning of a half doesn't suddenly turn a tight game into a blow out where it was clear which team was better. Balt beat us by 2 scores with a 2 pt conversion. That doesn't happen off a single play early in the half because mometum swung. It happens because the other team was just simply better.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to ghostofjri37's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     At the same time, when I look at the playoff losses, I see teams that were fairly clearly overmatched by their opponents (Ravens in 2009, Ravens in 2012, Broncos in 2013) or that lost to fairly average playoff talent (Jets in 2010, Giants in 2011).  I see the reason for those loses as talent issues.  The other explanations given on this site seem to fall in three categories:

    • Brady stinks in the postseason 
    • The loss of assistant coaches and coordinators has crippled the team (leading to poor playcalling, poor offensive strategy, poor player preparation, etc.)
    • Bad luck

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pro I would agree with you about being overmatched in the 2009 Raven loss. They were overmatched and outplayed from play 1 in that game.

    2010 against the Jets they were just as talented if not more talented than the Jets. Sometimes teams have better game plans and play better than other teams.

    2011 it came down to execution. The Giants in no way shape or form overmatched the Pats they just executed the plays that needed executed in order to win. If anything thing in that game the Pats stars let them down. regardless of who you want to blame Brady, Welker, Nink all had plays if executed would most likely have led to a win.

    2012 against the Ravens they were up 13-7 at half. They stopped the Ravens on the 1st drive of the 2nd half and then took the ball and drove down to the raven 33. On 3rd and 9 Brady hit Welker between the 8 and 3 at the raven 21 and Welker dropped the ball. Instead of a 1st down and possibly increasing the lead they had to punt and the entire momentum and complexion of the game changed.

    Yes this year in the SB the Denver O definitely overmatched the Pats D especially when talib went down.

    I just don't think you can broad brush being overmatched in those losses. Definitely in 2009 and for the most part on D this past year against the Broncos.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Hey Ghost, I probably wasn't clear.  I'd say they were overmatched in 2009, 2012, and 2013.  In 2010 and 2011, I wouldn't say they were overmatched, but they lost to just average playoff opponents.

    In 2010, the team with the better defense won.  Pats had a better offense, but that 58 yard pass play our secondary gave up killed us, I think.  Guys like Chung (of fake punt fame) and Merriweather are examples in my mind of the talent issues.  That secondary was just bad.

    I do think the Ravens over matched us in 2012. We kept it close for a while, but the second half turned into a beatdown.  I don't think I've ever seen Brady look more demoralized than in that game.  Without Gronk our offense just couldn't score (again talent--too dependent on just one player).  On defense it was the same story.  Remove one guy (Talib) and everything falls completely apart. 

    Giants also were also able to exploit poor pass coverage.  Our poor pass defense (and their good defensive line) combined with the Gronk issue was enough for a fairly mediocre team to beat us.  Again, I see this as a talent issue.  the pass defense was bad because of guys like Sterling Mooore and Chung.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ghostofjri37. Show ghostofjri37's posts

    Re: Your Thoughts on the Cap

    In response to PatsEng's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ghostofjri37's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

     

    PatsEng, I would agree in 2011 regarding the play of the D. That being said it was a factor but the game was not decided because of that one issue.

    The Safety to start the game

    The 12 men on the field penalty which negated a turnover and led to a TD.

    The Brady Int after getting a 1st down close to midfield late in the 3rd. they were about to take control of the game.

    The Welker drop.

    The Nink offsides on 3rd & 4 at the Giant 11. It gave the Giants the ball for an extra 3 minutes and they punted from the pats 45 or so instead of their own 11 changing field position. To your point it would have been the only 3 and out the Pats D forced.

     The outcome or execution of anyone of those plays or combination of them would have resulted in a different outcome.

     

    As far as the 2012 Raven game is concerned we could debate this forever. Sometimes in football there are turning points that occur in games. Sometimes intangibles and momentum play a huge part in dictating the outcome of a game. I guess I would say this... they certainly were outplayed in the 2nd half of that game but for my money that play i referenced IMO turned the game in that direction.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ghost even with all those misques in 2011 did the Pats have the lead with less than 3mins left and did the Giants have to drive 80 yrds to get the win? For everything that happened it all boiled down to the D making a single stop. Be honest, if the D in 11' had the same level of talent as the 01-04 teams do you think they make that 1 stop? There are plenty of examples each of us can give which effected the game, you point to Welker but you could also point to Branch and Hern in that same set of downs dropping balls, but in the end the Pats D didn't have the talent to make a single stop.

    With 2012, momentum does make a difference but only in tight games with little time left on the clock. When Welker dropped the ball they still had the lead and there was a whole half left to play right? That 1 drop didn't lead to the Ravens completely dominating the entire half. It doesn't work that way. I didn't see the coaching staff take off their headphones when it happened and start to pack up. Drops like that happen all the time and yes it can change the momentum but how many other instances with the Pats have we seen something similar and then a series or two later the Pats put together a drive that took the momentum back or the Pats D created a turnover. A single play at the very beginning of a half doesn't suddenly turn a tight game into a blow out where it was clear which team was better. Balt beat us by 2 scores with a 2 pt conversion. That doesn't happen off a single play early in the half because mometum swung. It happens because the other team was just simply better.

    [/QUOTE]


    Pats, no doubt they needed a stop plain and simple at that point. Just like if Brady doesn't throw and INT, welker doesn't drop the ball or Nink doesn't go offsides we are most likely talking about a 2 score lead. They all contributed to the loss. Look i don't deny the D's lack of stops and  their inability to get off the field on 3rd downs wasn't a factor. I just don't think those were all part of the equation contributing to the loss. It is just my opinion they were not overmatched.

    Again i was in the stadium in 2012 and that drop had a huge bearing on the direction that game went in.

     
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