Yanks worried about Hughes

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    In Response to Re: Yanks worried about Hughes:
    [QUOTE]If Hughes has an issue the stankees can always turn to AJ Burnett, or Bartolo Colon, or Freddie Garcia .  The stankee fans can beat their chests all they want after the sox spit the bit this weekend but frankly I wouldn't be too cocky with these jokers towing the rubber in the bronx this summer!
    Posted by william93063[/QUOTE]
    I'd be just as worried about the Sox lineup.
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    His velocity was down yesterday as well at S.T. So we will see what happens as the season progresses.
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    One bad start is nothing to worry about with Hughes, or any pitcher, but if his velocity suddenly just goes down to < 90mph, then it merits watching because it shouldn't just happen for no reason.
     
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    In Response to Re: Yanks worried about Hughes:
    [QUOTE]We have Lackey, Beckett, Dice K, Paplebon (and to a lesser extent Lester and Bard) to worry about.  Realistically we have three starters that we have no idea if they be over .500. Lackey is atrocious and Dice K is a head case. Beckett may never pitch like he used to again based on his last few years. Lets focus on our problems.
     
    Posted by jamesey271975[/QUOTE]
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes


    [QUOTE]

    If Hughes has an issue the stankees can always turn to AJ Burnett, or Bartolo Colon, or Freddie Garcia. The stankee fans can beat their chests all they want after the sox spit the bit this weekend but frankly I wouldn't be too cocky with these jokers towing the rubber in the bronx this summer!

    Posted by william93063[/QUOTE]

    I think the Yankees will be O.K. on the mound.
     
    They also have a plan in place to fully utilize the Yankees Triple A starting staff with legite prospects. They have David Phelps, Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, D.J. Mitchell, and Andrew Brackman lined up. Not a retread among them.

    They do have another retread possibilty if Kevin Millwood is to find something left in his tank after his extended spring training routine. Come mid summer, I believe a guy named Andy Pettitte will be bitting at the bit to get back on the mound.

    By mid summer, the world will also know if Manny Banuelos is on track to live up to very high expectations. The kid impressed mightily in spring.

    Overall, the odds of the Yankees enjoying another trip to the postseason are reasonable enough.

    Having said that, with Baltimore and Toronto all beefed up, those 72 games scheduled against AL East opponents looks tougher than ever.

    If they need help beyond what they have stored, they are loaded with highly regarded catchers throughout their minor league system. Trade bait is available.
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    Phil Hughes looks for answers as he struggles with his velocity

    Craig Calcaterra

    Apr 4, 2011, 8:45 AM EDT

    Yankees' Hughes reacts as he walks back to the dugout  during fourth inning of American League MLB baseball action against the Tigers in New York Reuters

    As I noted in ATH this morning, people were talking during yesterday’s Yankees-Tigers game that www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=4091" class="nameLink">Phil Hughes‘ velocity was way down. The last time this was mentioned, during spring training, some dismissed the idea as a function of uncalibrated Juggs guns or, even if the observations were accurate, as something not worth worrying about.  It now seems that, yes, the reports were accurate, and yes, it is a cause for concern.

    Hughes’ fastball averaged 89.25 m.p.h. www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=3&year=2011&game=gid_2011_04_03_detmlb_nyamlb_1%2F&pitchSel=461833&prevGame=gid_2011_04_03_detmlb_nyamlb_1%2F&prevDate=43">according to PitchFX. That’s which is down from the 92-94 m.p.h. fastball he was featuring at the height of his effectiveness last season.  Both Hughes — who called his velocity issue “disconcerting” — and Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild were concerned about it after the game according to Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York.

    Obviously one regular season start does not justify panic in the streets and looting of local businesses, but given how the Yankees’ rotation was characterized as “Sabathia and Hughes are good, everything else is a question mark,” this is something worth watching.

     
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    Yanks worried about Hughes

    Pitcher Breakdown: The Yankees Are Worried About Phil Hughes

    By (Contributor) on April 3, 2011 - New York City

    510 reads

    13 comments

    NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 03:  Phil Hughes #65 of the New York Yankees walks to the dugout against the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium on April 3, 2011 in the Bronx borough of New York City.  (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images) Nick Laham/Getty Images

    Phil Hughes Final Line: 4IP, 5H,  5R, 5ER, 2BB, 1K .333 GB/FB ratio

    One of the mysteries during the Yankees spring training centered around the lack of velocity Phil Hughes displayed in his few starts. Apparently, scouts were taken aback by Hughes' lack of velocity. Many of them were recording his fastball in the 86-88 range. Joe Girardi told reporters during the spring that Hughes showed the same velocity in spring training last season and that he is curious whether Hughes would get back to 93-94 mph during today's start.  

    Today's start did very little to alleviate those concerns. Hughes threw 40 fastballs without a swing and miss, and the average velocity sat at 89.25 mph. His top speed was recorded at 91 mph. During his postgame news conference, Girardi said it takes time for some hard throwing starters to get their velocity going, which is true.

    However, the Yankees have yet to see this from Hughes this late in the season, and pitching coach Larry Rothschild told ESPN's Adam Marchand that he was concerned about Hughes.

    In Hughes' first start last season, he threw 36 fastballs. They averaged 92.7 mph, topping out at 94.4 mph, and he had opponents swing and miss seven times. In a postgame interview with YES Network's Kim Jones, Hughes acknowledged that his velocity is not where he wants it to be, but that he is feeling fine. 

    I'm not sure what's wrong, but he could be feeling the effects of throwing more than 180 innings for the first time in his career. Whatever the problem may be, Hughes needs to locate better than he did today. Both home runs he allowed were on flat cutters, and he only threw three of his 10 curveball for strikes.

    It is still only April 3, but the Hughes situation is something to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.  

     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    We have Lackey, Beckett, Dice K, Paplebon (and to a lesser extent Lester and Bard) to worry about. 

    Realistically we have three starters that we have no idea if they be over .500. Lackey is atrocious and Dice K is a head case. Beckett may never pitch like he used to again based on his last few years. Lets focus on our problems. 
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    If Hughes has an issue the stankees can always turn to AJ Burnett, or Bartolo Colon, or Freddie Garcia .  The stankee fans can beat their chests all they want after the sox spit the bit this weekend but frankly I wouldn't be too cocky with these jokers towing the rubber in the bronx this summer!
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes


    [QUOTE]

    Oil Can, Louisiana Lightnin' and Satch come to mind as far as thin frames. How'd they do?

    Posted by Bralon[/QUOTE]

    You aiming for an Oil Can type career for Buch?

    "How'd they do?"

    No recall of Satch stats without wasting time at the moment, but little to no memory of Ron Guidry allowing 4 HR's in his 1st start of the season.


    I fully realize that Buch bulked up some before last year, and look what took place as a result. He could add on 10 more lbs. and be a bulldog. I wouldn't want to see him flame out, he's good and I enjoy watching good baseball.

    VIDEO: Buchholz on adding weight, preparing for the season

    Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz

    Boston.com has a very interesting video here of Red Sox righty Clay Buchholz talking about why he wanted to put on weight heading into this season. It’s interesting to hear Buchholz talk about losing weight as the season progresses and why he thinks it’s important to have that extra 10 or 15 pounds heading into this season.

     

    ********************************************************

     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    Early days, but there is plenty to worry about concerning Hughes, Burnett, Lackey, Beckett,....

    Maybe this is the year that run scoring records are set in the A.L. East and 92ish wins takes the division.
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    In Response to Re: Yanks worried about Hughes:
    [QUOTE]I think the Yankees will be O.K. on the mound.   They also have a plan in place to fully utilize the Yankees Triple A starting staff with legite prospects. They have David Phelps, Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, D.J. Mitchell, and Andrew Brackman lined up. Not a retread among them. They do have another retread possibilty if Kevin Millwood is to find something left in his tank after his extended spring training routine. Come mid summer, I believe a guy named Andy Pettitte will be bitting at the bit to get back on the mound. By mid summer, the world will also know if Manny Banuelos is on track to live up to very high expectations. The kid impressed mightily in spring. Overall, the odds of the Yankees enjoying another trip to the postseason are reasonable enough. Having said that, with Baltimore and Toronto all beefed up, those 72 games scheduled against AL East opponents looks tougher than ever. If they need help beyond what they have stored, they are loaded with highly regarded catchers throughout their minor league system. Trade bait is available.
    Posted by matsuigoesMo[/QUOTE]

    Mo,

    Count me among the sceptics of the sox 4 aces pitching staff talk dating back to pre spring training.  Lackey and Beckett have a lot to overcome in terms of making me a believer.  I am not too worried about Lester as he historically stinks it up in April but that 58-10 mark from May to September is HOF caliber so I guess we live with the lousy Aprils until further notice!  Buchholz was bad yesterday but everyone throws a stinker like that 3 or 4 times a year even a guy like Buchholz who was deservedly in the Cy Young conversation in '10.

    Just because the Yankees and sox can outspend most teams in baseball does not guarantee trouble free starting pitching and any more than casual observer understands this!  As a sox fan I am frankly sorry to see Hughes struggle like this, the kid was impressive in prior years and as a fan of the game you hate to see someone with so much ability seemingly take  such a sizeable step backwards!
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    In Response to Re: Yanks worried about Hughes:
    [QUOTE]Early days, but there is plenty to worry about concerning Hughes, Burnett, Lackey, Beckett,.... Maybe this is the year that run scoring records are set in the A.L. East and 92ish wins takes the division.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    I would be shocked if the RS only win 92 games; 98-103 is more like it.
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    In Response to Re: Yanks worried about Hughes:
    [QUOTE] I would be shocked if the RS only win 92 games; 98-103 is more like it. Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE] I don't see it if forced to guess.  I see Baltimore and Toronto being better than they have been.  Of course, pitching is the key but both have some young pitchers with potential.  Watching a healthy Roberts this weekend lead a preety solid line up. Take a look at their new look, if Weiters, Vlad, and Lee have big years they are going to take some wins away from TB, EE, and the Sox imo. The EE and Sox will probably score ~5.8 runs/game, and that number will probably be even higher against each other.  But it is possible both starting staffs will be less than stellar.  Other than Lester and CC, I would not be surprised if no one else is under 4 ERA.  I could see two on each staff />5.  Just my take as they say. Side note did anyone see Penny going out #2 for Detroit? What were they thinking?
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    Baltinore's Mgr is a big factor also. As far as # wins for the RS, maybe it'll be 95-ish.
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    The pitch being given is that it looks to be a mechanical issue with Hughes.
     
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    In Response to Re: Yanks worried about Hughes:
    [QUOTE]Points taken, although you took a very dramatic path. Time will tell. My concern with Hughes has been, and remains his mechanics. Too much arm and shoulder action, not enough leg drive. Buch has serious talent, but one has to think that he needs to bulk up some (and soon) in order to enjoy a long career. That arsenal of his is impressive, but considering that thin frame, the long term affects from all that torque will likely be a consideration in the overall equation.
    Posted by matsuigoesMo[/QUOTE]

    Buch is bigger than you give him credit for.  I don't see what that has to do with having a long career anyways.

    As for Hughes, he hasn't been good since May of last year.  He fell off after the first month and a half and he's nearing his time of make or break.
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    In Response to Re: Yanks worried about Hughes:
    [QUOTE]Points taken, although you took a very dramatic path. Time will tell. My concern with Hughes has been, and remains his mechanics. Too much arm and shoulder action, not enough leg drive. Buch has serious talent, but one has to think that he needs to bulk up some (and soon) in order to enjoy a long career. That arsenal of his is impressive, but considering that thin frame, the long term affects from all that torque will likely be a consideration in the overall equation.
    Posted by matsuigoesMo[/QUOTE]
    Oil Can, Louisiana Lightnin' and Satch come to mind as far as thin frames. How'd they do?
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

     So Buch coughs up 4 Hr's total, Hughes gives up 2 to Cabrera, a beast among men, and only one of the two youngsters took a "sizable step backwards"? That too is mysterious.
    Posted by matsuigoesMo[/QUOTE]

    Buchholz's last pitch was 94 mph Sunday. Hughes's drop of velocity is possibly a longer term problem.

    mlb.com:

    The Yankees had eyed Hughes' velocity closely this spring, with manager Joe Girardi stating that he would be curious to see when Hughes begins to get to 93-94 mph, where he pitched at times last season.

    Against Detroit on Sunday, however, Hughes was more in the area of 87-89 mph, maxing out at 91.

    Yankeeist:

    Here are Hughes’ pitch averages from 2010:

    www.yankeeanalysts.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2010HughespfxAverages.jpg">www.yankeeanalysts.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2010HughespfxAverages.jpg" alt="" title="2010HughespfxAverages" width="413" height="100" />


    I’m not even going to bother getting into the weeds with horizontal and vertical break given that he’s still working on his velocity; however, if we take the Brooks data at face value, it’s no surprise Phil’s cutter got demolished yesterday, as the average speed recorded by Brooks (83.5) was down a full five miles per hour from 2010. Now I know we’ve got pitch classification issues we’re dealing with here, but I find it extremely baffling that Hughes would keep going back to the cutter as frequently as he did (according to Gameday he essentially threw nothing but cutters in innings 3 and 4) if he basically had nothing on it.

    Presumably once Hughes finds the missing 3mph on his fastball, his cutter will jump up as well, although that still doesn’t really explain why there was ostensibly a six-mph gap between the two pitches yesterday and a 4-mph gap in 2010. Again, I know we have some spotty data, but I did also watch the game and eyewitnessed several 82-83mph cutters, which Gameday recorded as well. Although Gameday also has several cutters up in the 90-91 range, and so again, clearly there are some flaws in the pitch classification algorithm.

    Hughes also continued to frustrate the Yankee faithful with his continued inability to finish batters off with two strikes (you may recall that Hughes www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2010-pitches-pitching.shtml#players_pitches_pitching::12">led the American League last season in Foul Ball Strikes Percentage — 34% — by a fairly wide margin), and by my count the Tigers racked up 13 two-strike fouls, with Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez and Don Kelly leading the way with three apiece. Unfortunately B-Ref doesn’t carry statistical information on two-strike fouls, but tallying 13 two-strike fouls among 57 total strikes thrown seems like an absurdly high percentage (23%), at least compared to www.yankeeanalysts.com/2010/10/texas-two-step-186">the last time I looked at two-strike foul data. For comparison’s sake, in that post I looked at the Rangers’ two-strike prowess in the ALCS, and found that in Game 1 they had 13 two-strike fouls out of 104 total strikes seen, or 12.5%. And those 13 two-strike fouls in ALCS Game 1 were compiled over an entire game, not a four-inning start.

    In any event, if there’s a takeaway it’s that yes, Hughes has some velocity to recover, but it doesn’t seem like a worrisome issue — he’s not going to be throwing 83mph cutters all year. Of slightly greater concern was the flat curve, but I don’t think anyone would’ve expected Hughes to have a top-notch curve yesterday, especially after struggling with it for most of last season. Of greatest concern is probably the two-strike foul madness, but again, once the velocity jumps back up this should be a correctable issue as well.


     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    In Response to Re: Yanks worried about Hughes:
    [QUOTE]Points taken, although you took a very dramatic path. Time will tell. My concern with Hughes has been, and remains his mechanics. Too much arm and shoulder action, not enough leg drive. Buch has serious talent, but one has to think that he needs to bulk up some (and soon) in order to enjoy a long career. That arsenal of his is impressive, but considering that thin frame, the long term affects from all that torque will likely be a consideration in the overall equation.
    Posted by matsuigoesMo[/QUOTE]
     
    Already done Matsui.  Did you see Clay last year or this year.  Still tall and somehwat wiry because that is his frame.  But he bulked up significantly between 09 and 2010.
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes



    [QUOTE] 

    Mo,  The Velocity  is down significantly with Hughes and the k/bb ratio is down significatly with Buch.  Both are concerning but in Buch's case this has been trending down each of the last 2 season's and his fastball is still consitently mid 90's as it always was. 

    Hughe's velocity issue seems to date back to the second half of last season and appears to be a potentially serious health issue.  Personally I am much less concerned about a k/bb ratio downgrade than a potentially life altering physical injury though if Buch starts to give up a lot more fly ball outs we may have a problem on our hands!

    Posted by william93063[/QUOTE]

    Points taken, although you took a very dramatic path.

    Time will tell.

    My concern with Hughes has been, and remains his mechanics. Too much arm and shoulder action, not enough leg drive.

    Buch has serious talent, but one has to think that he needs to bulk up some (and soon) in order to enjoy a long career. That arsenal of his is impressive, but considering that thin frame, the long term affects from all that torque will likely be a consideration in the overall equation.

     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

     I would be shocked if the RS only win 92 games; 98-103 is more like it.
    Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]

    I don't see it if forced to guess.  I see Baltimore and Toronto being better than they have been.  Of course, pitching is the key but both have some young pitchers with potential.  Watching a healthy Roberts this weekend lead a preety solid line up. Take a look at their new look, if a couple out of Wieters, Vlad, Reynolds, Hardy, and Lee have big years they are going to take some wins away from TB, EE, and the Sox imo.

    The EE and Sox will probably score ~5.8 runs/game, and that number will probably be even higher against each other.  But it is possible both starting staffs will be less than stellar.  Other than Lester and CC, I would not be surprised if no one else is under 4 ERA.  I could see two on each staff />5.  Just my take as they say.

    Side note did anyone see Penny going out #2 for Detroit? What were they thinking?
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    In Response to Re: Yanks worried about Hughes:
    [QUOTE]I think the Yankees will be O.K. on the mound.   They also have a plan in place to fully utilize the Yankees Triple A starting staff with legite prospects. They have David Phelps, Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, D.J. Mitchell, and Andrew Brackman lined up. Not a retread among them.
    Posted by matsuigoesMo[/QUOTE]

    I thought Boston's one advantage over the Yankees was the starting rotation, but now you are scaring me. 
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

      Mo,

     The Velocity  is down significantly with Hughes and the k/bb ratio is down significatly with Buch.  Both are concerning but in Buch's case this has been trending down each of the last 2 season's and his fastball is still consitently mid 90's as it always was.  Hughe's velocity issue seems to date back to the second half of last season and appears to be a potentially serious health issue.  Personally I am much less concerned about a k/bb ratio downgrade than a potentially life altering physical injury though if Buch starts to give up a lot more fly ball outs we may have a problem on our hands!
     
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    Re: Yanks worried about Hughes

    Hopefully Girardi has learned a lesson tonight - you never bring Soriano into a game that is not on the line. 4 - 0  game is now  4 - 4.
     

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