Re: Sox and Dempster in serious discussions
posted at 12/12/2012 4:31 PM EST
I am not advocating the Red Sox sign Dempster to a 3-39 deal. However, the only two reasons I would be against such a deal is his age and the spookiness of 3, 3-39's. Having experienced 12-12-12-12-12 today and the Mayan thing coming up in about 10 days, just don't like the numbers.
However, the negativity about Dempster is a bit over the top. So some positives to offset....
Dempster was not bad this year in the American League. He was 9-4, with an ERA of 4.30. That would have made him arguably the Red Sox best starter. Putting him just behind Morales and clearly ahead of the other 8 starters.
In the last 4 seasons, he has an ERA against the American League of 4.02. The last 5 seasons, its 4.20. And against the American League East over the last 5 years, his ERA is 3.06.
Whats more is that he has been a fairly unlucky pitcher when it comes to his ERA over the last 4 seasons. So his numbers should have probably been better. For example, after joining the Rangers his xFIP was just 3.86.
His xFIP the last 5 seasons is just 3.73. That would rank him 44th out of 250 starters with atleast 160 inning pitched. And 31st out of 155 starters with atleast 350 innings pitched. That would make him atleast a number 2 starter. Maybe a borderline number 1 starter.
A few others things. He had 4 years as a closer. And over the last 5 years an ERA about .2 runs lower on the road. Both things tell me he has plenty of balls to pitch in Fenway. And Wrigley can be a tough place to pitch when the wind blows out.
Dempster has been a winner the last 5 seasons. He is 16 games over 500 while pitching mostly for the Cubs. And for those that don't know, the Cubs stink.
A solid innings eater. Has pitched over 200 innings 4 of the last 5 seasons. Very healthy arm during that time. There is something to be said for experienced consistent healthy innings eaters.
Another good attitude. Doesn't cost us a pick, only money.
He has a WAR the last 5 seasons of 18.1 which ranks 19th in all of baseball for starting pitchers. The players ranked 14th-18th? Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, James Shields, Josh Beckett, Adam Wainwright. Nice company.
Or......you can think he stinks because of his 5.09 ERA with the Rangers.