In response to dgalehouse's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to dgalehouse's comment:
Tender or non-tender ? Or as the King said " Love Me Tender.. " I am afraid that we have fallen so far , so fast , that we are now relegated to this stuff. Well , that and pretending that we have the greatest crop of prospects in baseball. The future is ours. Some of you love this sort of thing. It gives you a chance to opine about your views. Show how smart you are. Some of us just want a winning team, and we want it now. What is wrong here?
I want to win now, but not at the expense of 2014 and beyond, and don't give me that "Henry can spend way over the cap" line either. We have a near fixed budget limit, and spending big in one of the weakest FA season markets in recent memory will cripple us for many years to come AND not make us a top 4 contender anyways.
Signing Hamilton, Greinke and Napoli will not make us a top 4 club. Would we have a better chance of making the playoffs or stealing a ring? Yes, but at the expense of ruining our longer term future.
What is our long term future anyway ? We are in a five year drought now. How long is acceptable ?
So, because we have had a 5 year drought, that gives us reason to become reckless?
If this was a strong free agent class, I'd be all for picking and choosing the best of the best and overpaying one or two of them, but the top FAs this year are all flawed.
Hamilton , Greinke and Napoli are free agents. All they would cost is the money saved on the L.A. Trade.
No, all they "would cost" is to replace last year's mistakes with this year's mistakes and we'd be, at best, slightly better than 2012... still not a serious playoff contending team.
You don't want to do that , but yet you are willing to trade our best prospects and/or established players for far lesser talents.
1) Aren't you the one with littlke faith in our prospects? The one bashing those who look to our youth as our future? Now, you act like wanting to trade them is a sin.
2) J Upton is better and has a cheaper contract than Hamilton. Brett Anderson will do better than Greinke over the next 3 years at a small fraction of the cost.
3) My plan brings us better players, saves us money that we can spend later on when the FA classes are better, and sacrifices some, but not all of our prospects.
4) My plan also spends some money on FAs this year: better value for the money ones that Hamilton, Greinke, Swisher, or Napoli provide. I have said I am OK with Napoli at $33M/3 and wouldn't complain about $36M/3 or $41M/4, since he can DH after Papi retires and can slide to catcher in NL parks. I want us to pay (overpay) for B McCarthy and/or Marcum. I'd also like to see us sign Pagan and trade Ellsbury while we can still get something in return rather than miss the playoffs again in 2012 and get nothing for him anyways.
5) Signing Hamilton, Greinke & Napoli would be worse than the CC & Lackey signings and Beckett extension. We'd be right where we were last year... near contenders with no budget room to improve for the next 3-5 years.
How is that helping our long term future ?
If we trade for Upton, B Anderson, and Pagan as well as sign McCarthy & Napoli, we'll be as good as an only sign Hamilton/Greinke/Napoli team in 2013, but more importantly, we'll be much much much better set up for 2014 and 2015. We'd have younger players that are now reaching their prime, not older players moving post prime. We'd have more money to spend on a much better FA class in 2014.
Anyway , if Hamilton, Greinke and Napoli can't make us serious contenders , what are the chances that Barnes , Bradley and Brentz will ? It is my belief that you have got to have a goal of winning it all every year. I guess I just don't have the patience that others have.
You miss the point completely: your comparison should be:
2014 and 2015...
Hamilton (past prime) , Greinke (nearing past-prime) & Napoli (near past prime) and a bunch of prospects (and nothing to show for Ells but a sandwich pick).
Upton (just entering prime), Anderson (just entering prime), Napoli (near past prime), Pagan (prime), McCarthy (prime) and a few less prospects (but hopefully still having Barnes, Webster, Swihart, Owens and de la Rosa.. probably not having Cecchini, Bradley, Brentz and Bogaerts) and having something positive to show for Ellsbury.
Maybe your plan would give us a better chance in 2013 (slightly), maybe not, but there is no way you can say your plan is better for 2014 and 2015. 2016 and beyond might look better in terms of prospects under your plan, but we'd be so crippled by over-aged high priced players that I doubt they could make a difference.
Many see the Manny signing as a mistake, but at least he put up the numbers and was in his prime while here. You are asking us to go along with a plan that pays Manny money for players that don't come close to projecting to Manny production.
Hamilton turns 32 early next season. He has averaged only 550 PAs the last 4 years (in his prime). 2 of the last 4 seasons, he's had an OPS below .883.
Greinke is 29. He will probably be in his prime for most of his contract, but he is not Pedro or Schill or even a Beckett when healthy and on top of his game. Greinke and A Sanchez might be the best high-priced FAs available this winter, but I just do not see them as "the ones" to put all our egss in their basket, just because some ticking "make the playoffs" clock of yours needs to be relieved.
Napoli & Swisher are good players seeking great player pay. Napoli is a fit for us now and into 2014 & 2015, and if we don't sign hamilton or Greinke, signing him would still allow us to spend more wisely in 2014 and beyond.
I happen to think my plan is more balanced than yours. One could argue that your plan is better for 2013 and have more prospects for 2015 and beyond, but I think you are devaluing the effects of having huge contracts for players that will be declining rapidly, while my plan gets us players on the rise and at lower budget costs that allow us more future FA flexibility.