**According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses).**

**This winter....**

**There will be some arb induced raises:**

**Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb year 2 of 3)**

**Albers $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4)**

**Salty $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)**

**Aceves $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)**

**Bard $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)**

**DMac $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)**

**Lowrie $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)**

**Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)**

**My guess is we may add about $12-15M to the budget here.**

**There are options:**

**Scutaro $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out)**

**Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached)**

**A. Miller $3m club option ? (some gray area here)**

**Assume we let Wheeler go and keep Scutaro ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) and Miller.**

**Let's say up to now we are $12M in the hole.**

**Then, there are FreeAgents:**

**JD Drew $14M**

**Ortiz $12.5M**

**Papelbon $10.33M**

**Varitek $2M**

**Wakefield $2M**

**Bedard $1M**

**Total: $42M**

**I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below.**

**My projections on Free Agents:**

**Drew ($14M) walks**

**Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $25M/2 plus incentives**

**Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets type A compensation)**

**VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1**

**Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives.**

**Total yearly cost: $17M**

**($42M-$17M=$25M to spend on filling the gaps.)**

**Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25M to spend on these holes. (We could afford Papelbon out f that $25M)**

**Here are some possible in house solutions:**

**Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)**

**RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac)**

**RP: (not many options)**

**If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster:**

**C: Salty/Vtek**

**1B: AGon**

**2B: Pedey**

**3B: Youk**

**SS: Aviles/Lowrie**

**LF: Craw/DMac**

**CF: Ells**

**RF: Reddick/Kalish**

**DH: Papi**

**(Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias)**

**SP1 Beckett**

**SP2 Lester**

**SP3 Buch**

**SP4 Lack**

**SP5 Wake**

**SP6 Dice or Miller**

**RP1 Bard**

**RP2 Jenks**

**RP3 Aceves**

**RP4 Albers**

**RP5 Morales**

**RP6 Doubront/Weiland**

**(several other options)**

**There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club. There's a chance both stay.**