2012 Budget & Player Decisions

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    2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses).

    This winter....

    There will be some arb induced raises:
    Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb year 2 of 3)
    Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4)
    Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)

    My guess is we may add about $12-15M to the budget here.

    There are options:
    Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out)
    Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached)
    A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here)

    Assume we let Wheeler go and keep Scutaro ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) and Miller. 

    Let's say up to now we are $12M in the hole.

    Then, there are FreeAgents:
    JD Drew    $14M  
    Ortiz          $12.5M
    Papelbon  $10.33M
    Varitek      $2M
    Wakefield $2M
    Bedard      $1M

    Total: $42M

    I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below.

    My projections on Free Agents:Drew ($14M) walks
    Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $25M/2 plus incentives
    Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets type A compensation)
    VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1
    Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives.
    Total yearly cost: $17M
    ($42M-$17M=$25M to spend on filling the gaps.)

    Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25M to spend on these holes. (We could afford Papelbon out f that $25M) 

    Here are some possible in house solutions:

    Closer: (Bard? Jenks?) 
    RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac)
    RP: (not many options)

    If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster:

    C: Salty/Vtek
    1B: AGon
    2B: Pedey
    3B: Youk
    SS: Aviles/Lowrie
    LF: Craw/DMac
    CF: Ells
    RF: Reddick/Kalish
    DH: Papi
    (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias)

    SP1 Beckett
    SP2 Lester
    SP3 Buch
    SP4 Lack
    SP5 Wake
    SP6 Dice or Miller
    RP1 Bard
    RP2 Jenks
    RP3 Aceves
    RP4 Albers
    RP5 Morales
    RP6 Doubront/Weiland
    (several other options)

    There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club. There's a chance both stay.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    We can keep  both Papi and Paps, but with little left over to upgrade elsewhere or extend some young guys.
     
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    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions:
    We can keep  both Papi and Paps, but with little left over to upgrade elsewhere or extend some young guys.
    Posted by moonslav59

    One could argue the worth of keeping Ortiz.  Presumably bats can be had, .. maybe even younger bats.  I would think to a large extent it will be more a matter of years versus dollars.  Papelbon is another story.  If the RS let Papelbon walk it would be incumbent upon the FO having a plan B ready.  If plan B is handing the closer job to either Jenks or Bard, .. I hope the Nation likes chasing the Rays next year, .. and fending off the Jays for that matter.

    From the bridge of the Death Star Papelbon is an overbearing presumptuous clown.  But, he's also the second best closer in the AL East and better than most. The vaunted RS pitching staff would be a lot less vaunted without Papebon.

     
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    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    In Response to 2012 Budget & Player Decisions:
    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses). This winter.... There will be some arb induced raises: Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb year 2 of 3) Albers    $875K /> ? (Arb 3 of 4) Salty      $750K /> ? (Arb 1 of 3) Aceves  $650K /> ? (Arb 1 of 3) Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) My guess is we may add about $12-15M to the budget here. There are options: Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out) Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached) A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here) Assume we let Wheeler go and keep Scutaro ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) and Miller.  Let's say up to now we are $12M in the hole. Then, there are FreeAgents: JD Drew    $14M   Ortiz          $12.5M Papelbon  $10.33M Varitek      $2M Wakefield $2M Bedard      $1M Total: $42M I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below. My projections on Free Agents: Drew ($14M) walks Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $25M/2 plus incentives Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets type A compensation) VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1 Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives. Total yearly cost: $17M ($42M-$17M=$25M to spend on filling the gaps.) Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25M to spend on these holes. (We could afford Papelbon out f that $25M)  Here are some possible in house solutions: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)  RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac) RP: (not many options) If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster: C: Salty/Vtek 1B: AGon 2B: Pedey 3B: Youk SS: Aviles/Lowrie LF: Craw/DMac CF: Ells RF: Reddick/Kalish DH: Papi (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias) SP1 Beckett SP2 Lester SP3 Buch SP4 Lack SP5 Wake SP6 Dice or Miller RP1 Bard RP2 Jenks RP3 Aceves RP4 Albers RP5 Morales RP6 Doubront/Weiland (several other options) There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club. There's a chance both stay.
    Posted by moonslav59

    The only guy they absolutely need to keep is Papelbon.  Unless the RS have a better alternative, which doesn't seem to be the case.  

    Ortiz should be a priority if he will agree to the right balance on money and years.  My guess is that he's looking for three years, he shouldn't get more than two with a light option.  

    The option guys should be jettisoned, .. nobody's in that group that can't be replaced and likely younger and cheaper.  

    Drew is history as should Bedard be.  

    The tough part is Wakefield a Verirtek, .. both should go, it's time.  These guys are on their last legs and fading fast, it's time time to cut them loose.   Although I dislike Capt Sucker Punch I do have a tremendous amount of respect for Wakefield.  Say what you want about Roberts' steal but the real turning point of the 04 ACS was Wakefield voluntarily walking away from his start in game 4 and taking one for the team so as to not completely burn down the remainder of the pen.  The bottom line is they've little to offer on field. Except for character in the clubhouse they are just not going to be useful going forward.

    Yeah, I'm a Yankee fan but what I'm saying is based on logic.  If you care to dispute the logic, .. try it.  But, is anybody in the Nation seriously thinking that any of the guys I suggested getting rid of might have a better year next year? Personally, I hope they resign EVERY guy I suggested they get rid of and let Papelbon walk.  but, I'm not that fortunate.



     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    I'll take the same year that VTek had this year next year as well. I'll take the same year of Wake (with normal luck and breaks and someone who can catch his knuckler better). I'll take Scutaro at the $4.5M differential over Aviles/Lowrie (but not Iglesias).  

    Finding someone to replace a near 1.000 OPS is not easy, especially when you figure Youk may keep declining slightly, and some career year players might have letdowns.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    Good stuff. If it comes to fruition, our hope of the playoffs are dim. Why? Pitching. Particularly the back end of the bullpen. Then the yearly injuries to starters. DiceK ugh, Buch think he is going to be a real injury problem every year with the bad back, Wake is Wake, Beckett will be one year older. It just does not bode well.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    Buch is young. There's hope this was a passing thing. Beckett is a year older, but does not have tons of IP over his career. Dice-K is sketchy. Lackey and Wake could do better. Theo will pick up 1-2 #4 type starters to compete and add depth.

    We will be tough for years to come, even with Lackey & CC's crippling contracts.
     
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    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    In Response to 2012 Budget & Player Decisions:
    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses). This winter.... There will be some arb induced raises: Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb year 2 of 3) Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4) Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) My guess is we may add about $12-15M to the budget here. There are options: Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out) Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached) A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here) Assume we let Wheeler go and keep Scutaro ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) and Miller.  Let's say up to now we are $12M in the hole. Then, there are FreeAgents: JD Drew    $14M   Ortiz          $12.5M Papelbon  $10.33M Varitek      $2M Wakefield $2M Bedard      $1M Total: $42M I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below. My projections on Free Agents: Drew ($14M) walks Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $25M/2 plus incentives Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets type A compensation) VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1 Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives. Total yearly cost: $17M ($42M-$17M=$25M to spend on filling the gaps.) Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25M to spend on these holes. (We could afford Papelbon out f that $25M)  Here are some possible in house solutions: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)  RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac) RP: (not many options) If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster: C: Salty/Vtek 1B: AGon 2B: Pedey 3B: Youk SS: Aviles/Lowrie LF: Craw/DMac CF: Ells RF: Reddick/Kalish DH: Papi (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias) SP1 Beckett SP2 Lester SP3 Buch SP4 Lack SP5 Wake SP6 Dice or Miller RP1 Bard RP2 Jenks RP3 Aceves RP4 Albers RP5 Morales RP6 Doubront/Weiland (several other options) There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club. There's a chance both stay.
    Posted by moonslav59


    I think there may be more veteran movement than most people expect.  If it were up to me (which it is not) I might consider a run at Pujols or Fielder and let Ortiz walk.  He has had a very good year, he's a fan favorite and the owner loves him.  However, Albert and Prince are younger with longer careers ahead of them and both can play the field which is something Ortiz cannot for any length of time.  If you keep Ortiz for two, even if he would not slack off (and I think he will), with whom do replace him in 2014?  Of course they would have to understand that they would not be every day field players.  Also Youk might get moved if he can be sold as healthy.  God love him, but he is clearly fading.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    In Response to 2012 Budget & Player Decisions:
    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses). This winter.... There will be some arb induced raises: Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb year 2 of 3) Albers    $875K /> ? (Arb 3 of 4) Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) My guess is we may add about $12-15M to the budget here. There are options: Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out) Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached) A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here) Assume we let Wheeler go and keep Scutaro ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) and Miller.  Let's say up to now we are $12M in the hole. Then, there are FreeAgents: JD Drew    $14M   Ortiz          $12.5M Papelbon  $10.33M Varitek      $2M Wakefield $2M Bedard      $1M Total: $42M I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below. My projections on Free Agents: Drew ($14M) walks Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $25M/2 plus incentives Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets type A compensation) VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1 Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives. Total yearly cost: $17M ($42M-$17M=$25M to spend on filling the gaps.) Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25M to spend on these holes. (We could afford Papelbon out f that $25M)  Here are some possible in house solutions: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)  RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac) RP: (not many options) If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster: C: Salty/Vtek 1B: AGon 2B: Pedey 3B: Youk SS: Aviles/Lowrie LF: Craw/DMac CF: Ells RF: Reddick/Kalish DH: Papi (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias) SP1 Beckett SP2 Lester SP3 Buch SP4 Lack SP5 Wake SP6 Dice or Miller RP1 Bard RP2 Jenks RP3 Aceves RP4 Albers RP5 Morales RP6 Doubront/Weiland (several other options) There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club. There's a chance both stay.
    Posted by moonslav59


    Who cares, this is about as important now as posting Tampas pitching stats every few days.  How many times can you repeat the same discussions by simply changing the title of a thread?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    There are also $$ increases with Lester, Clay, Pedey, Youk, AGone(like 13 mil!) and a few others. I think Clay's is really back loaded so if you're thinking about long term payroll those must be accounted for.

    You have to think Ells is going to get a nice bump in arbitration, might be cheaper to just try and lock him up now.  In hind sight they should of bought low on him last off-season. 

    I don't know how they go into next year without a legitimate RH bat in RF.  It is a glaring deficiency in this line-up.  With Youk nowhere near his normal self this line-up has no balance against LHP.  Not that they can handle any of TB's RH either......
     
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    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

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    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions:
    There are also $$ increases with Lester, Clay, Pedey, Youk, AGone(like 13 mil!) and a few others. I think Clay's is really back loaded so if you're thinking about long term payroll those must be accounted for. You have to think Ells is going to get a nice bump in arbitration, might be cheaper to just try and lock him up now.  In hind sight they should of bought low on him last off-season.  I don't know how they go into next year without a legitimate RH bat in RF.  It is a glaring deficiency in this line-up.  With Youk nowhere near his normal self this line-up has no balance against LHP.  Not that they can handle any of TB's RH either......
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards

    You are right about raises for other players, but as far as the luxury tax threshhold, it is based on average salary of each deal, so in that respect, it doesn't effect the budget.


     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions:
    In Response to 2012 Budget & Player Decisions : Who cares, this is about as important now as posting Tampas pitching stats every few days.  How many times can you repeat the same discussions by simply changing the title of a thread?
    Posted by craze4sox


    If you don't like talking about next year or our closest opponent trying to oust us from the playoffs, that's OK with me. If you don't care: fine. Some of us like to look ahead, look around, and can have multiple debates going on at the same time without lessening the importance of any of them.

    I had to reprint this thread a few times, because it got closed after moving down in pages. People were asking about affording Papi and Paps, so I brought it back to page one. Sorry, if it offends you. I suggest next time just skip over it. It will be called "A Realistic Look at 2012: Part I", so you know now what to avoid.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    In Response to 2012 Budget & Player Decisions:
    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses). This winter.... There will be some arb induced raises: Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb year 2 of 3) Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4) Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) My guess is we may add about $12-15M to the budget here. There are options: Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out) Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached) A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here) Assume we let Wheeler go and keep Scutaro ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) and Miller.  Let's say up to now we are $12M in the hole. Then, there are FreeAgents: JD Drew    $14M   Ortiz          $12.5M Papelbon  $10.33M Varitek      $2M Wakefield $2M Bedard      $1M Total: $42M I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below. My projections on Free Agents: Drew ($14M) walks Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $25M/2 plus incentives Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets type A compensation) VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1 Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives. Total yearly cost: $17M ($42M-$17M=$25M to spend on filling the gaps.) Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25M to spend on these holes. (We could afford Papelbon out f that $25M)  Here are some possible in house solutions: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)  RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac) RP: (not many options) If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster: C: Salty/Vtek 1B: AGon 2B: Pedey 3B: Youk SS: Aviles/Lowrie LF: Craw/DMac CF: Ells RF: Reddick/Kalish DH: Papi (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias) SP1 Beckett SP2 Lester SP3 Buch SP4 Lack SP5 Wake SP6 Dice or Miller RP1 Bard RP2 Jenks RP3 Aceves RP4 Albers RP5 Morales RP6 Doubront/Weiland (several other options) There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club. There's a chance both stay.
    Posted by moonslav59

    Moon - Some comments with the assumption that this team needs to get younger and not hang onto their old guys year after year:

    1. I don't see them bringing Miller back at $3M. He's got potential, but we've seen the same thing in his stops at Detroit and Florida.
    2. They definitively need Ortiz in the middle of their order, but Youkilis seems to be breaking down and they may be better suited at letting Ortiz walk. This would allow Youkilis to DH, and fill in at both 1B and 3B.
    3. Scutaro is a tricky one, but maybe they decline the $6M option and agree to the $3M player option.
    4. I know you love Wake, but I think it's time. Yes, he's great insurance, but someone else could be also. Based on what he's done over the last 3 years, he probably won't reach the RS record for wins in 2012. I believe he will retire.
    5. Varitek will be back, probably for one more year.
    6. Wheeler will be let go, and hopefully, Atchison could do the same thing for $2M less.
    7. Drew is gone.
    8. I don't see any way Papelbon goes, given what has happened with Bard.

    They will be taking a risk by letting Ortiz walk, but a good candidate, if they can get him in the $8M per year range for 3 years would be Michael Cuddyer.

    He can be your RF, and also fill in at 3B, 2B, 1B, and provide a must needed right handed bat. 

    If they can send Lowrie and Bowden packing I would do so. Lowrie is going to be an injury prone risk year after year. He's been that way for 3 years now.

    If Ortiz walks, then Lavarnway gets his shot. Also, maybe Middlebrooks does something in spring training.

    The Red Sox need to get younger. Bringing the likes of Scutaro, Ortiz, Wake, Varitek, Wheeler, etc back won't help that cause.

     

     
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    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

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    Re: 2012 Budget & Player Decisions

    Moon - Some comments with the assumption that this team needs to get younger and not hang onto their old guys year after year

    Younger and better conditioned often go hand in hand. I agree. I also like the idea of having a DH who can play a position well, especially for games in NL parks, but I just am not ready to say good bye to Papi... the biggest hero the Sox have ever had.


    1. I don't see them bringing Miller back at $3M. He's got potential, but we've seen the same thing in his stops at Detroit and Florida

    You may be right here. That's a lot of money for a guy who can't stay in the rotation with 4 starters out hurt.  I'll ask you this: if we had to chose one, which would it be?
    Wake at $1.5-2M/1yr
    or
    Miller at $3M/1yr.
    .
    2. They definitively need Ortiz in the middle of their order, but Youkilis seems to be breaking down and they may be better suited at letting Ortiz walk. This would allow Youkilis to DH, and fill in at both 1B and 3B

    I mentioned this at the time of the AGon deal as well. Youk's bat is so vital to our success. However, do you think his mentality is suited for a lot of DH duty? He'd go nuts (IMO).
    .
    3. Scutaro is a tricky one, but maybe they decline the $6M option and agree to the $3M player option

    What's also tricky is, why would Scutaro take the $3M when he can get $1.5M to walk and then sign for $2M plus somewhere else and get more than the $3M here. The $1.5M buyout essentially makes the Scutaro cost at $4.5M not $6M.
    .
    4. I know you love Wake, but I think it's time. 

    I don't "love Wake". I don't even like him. I mearly defend him against those who bash him relentlessly like he is supposed to be our #3 guy. He is still one of the best 6th starters in MLB this year, if you can look beyond just ERA.

    Yes, he's great insurance, but someone else could be also. 

    Not many can be had for $2M or less. If we can find one or two, I'm all for it.

    Based on what he's done over the last 3 years, he probably won't reach the RS record for wins in 2012. I believe he will retire

    He made the allstar team in 2009, so maybe you ment last 2 years. The team is also 11-9 in his starts this year, not bad for a 6/7 starter.
    .
    5. Varitek will be back, probably for one more year.

    I agree and hope so. Lavarnway is not ready and Vtek is a good influence on Salty and Lavarnway.

    6. Wheeler will be let go, and hopefully, Atchison could do the same thing for $2M less.

    I think you are right.

    7. Drew is gone.

    Probably from MLB as well.

    8. I don't see any way Papelbon goes, given what has happened with Bard.

    What "happened to Bard" has happened to paps in year's past. I hope we can keep Paps, but not for over $13M/yr x 4+ years.

    They will be taking a risk by letting Ortiz walk, but a good candidate, if they can get him in
     the $8M per year range for 3 years would be Michael Cuddyer. 

    Could be Theo's guy.

    If they can send Lowrie and Bowden packing I would do so. Lowrie is going to be an injury prone risk year after year. He's been that way for 3 years now.

    He's had a wrist injury, mono and now a shoulder injury. I still have hope he could be a good utility guy or platoon 3Bman (vs LHPs) with Aviles.

    If Ortiz walks, then Lavarnway gets his shot. Also, maybe Middlebrooks does something in spring training,

    Letting Ortiz walk and replacing him with Lavarnway and Middlebrooks is an interesting idea, but I just can't see the Sox biggest hero since Babe Ruth walking out the door...(possibly to NY).

    The Red Sox need to get younger. Bringing the likes of Scutaro, Ortiz, Wake, Varitek, Wheeler, etc back won't help that cause

    Other than Papi, none of these guys would have crucial roles in 2012. A good mixture of youth and age is not a bad thing.

    By the way, nice solid post..

     
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