2012 Options

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:

    One year of 29-year-old centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury at about $10 million for one year of 28-year-old starter Tim Lincecum at $22 million.

    Who hangs up first?

    Ellsbury has been valued at 18.3 WAR* since his call-up in 2007 while Lincecum has been valued at 29.9 WAR over the same period. The Red Sox need a starter with ace potential and the often-contending Giants will have holes to fill if outfielders Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan leave via free agency.

    Happy Birthday, Jacoby Ellsbury.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs



    SF hangs up first.

    If they have given up on Lincecum after one bad year, why are they such believers in Ellsbury, who has only had one great one?

     

    [/QUOTE]
    The estimated $12 million difference in the 2013 salaries could be persuasive.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    There are bushmen on the Kalahari Desert who thought the Sox had an excellent draft.

     

    Provide the link, please.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    In response to rightymclefty's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I must've missed it, but when did Richardson, Hagadone, Federowicz, Wieland, Fife, Negron and Anderson make the majors for more than a cup of coffee? Granted, they were used as trading chips, but none of them has done a thing in MLB.
    So, as far as talent evaluation, I think Softy was talking about people who actually play in the Majors. I think you're muddying the issue.
    Then again, he wants to fire Don Cherry, for some reason.

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Does this "muddy the water "any?

    2007 draft: 6 of first 8 picks were high school players.

    2008 draft: 4 of the top 7 were high school players.

    One would expect they may take longer than 3-5 years for these 10 players to make their mark in the bigs.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from rightymclefty. Show rightymclefty's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    I was referencing the players mentioned.

    Moon, who is in that picture on your avitar? I've often wondered about it, but never asked.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    It's Doo-Dah McThingy, the world's-famous whatch-ah-ma-callit....ya know, ah, wink wink, nudge nudge, Softy's unspoken desire.....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r5rzgmi0LU

    I am the non-gay millionaire Cherokee lawyer and I like it!

     

     

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    In response to rightymclefty's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I was referencing the players mentioned.

    Moon, who is in that picture on your avitar? I've often wondered about it, but never asked.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Friedrich Nietzsche.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    Here is one a bit wild and extensive idea on what we could do to improve our team for 2013, but more importantly for 2014 and beyond (some ideas borrowed from notin but given specifics by myself):

    1) Offer Papi $13M/1. If he walks and signs elsewhere we get a comp pick. If not, we keep our legend where he belongs: retiring in Fenway. Chances are nobody will come close to offering him that, so I get the argument about lowballing him, but this is Papi we are talking about, folks. At least if he walks, we get a comp draft pick.

    2) Sign Brandon McCarthy at $26M/3 or $32M/4. He will turn 30 next July. Yes, he has an injury history, but I'd prefer this gamble than Greinke at about $20M/yr.

    3) Sign Cody Ross at $20M/3. Turns 32 this December. He is a great fit for Fenway, especially as a LF'er and future DH when Papi retires.

    4) Sign Hiruyoki Nakajima (SS) according to notin, no posting fee is needed.

    5)
    Trade: Jacoby Ellsbury & Junichi Tazawa
    to SF
    For: Hector Sanchez (Switch-hitting catcher who turns 23 in November and is pre-arb)& Sergio Romo (Turns 30 in March and has 2 arb years left).

    6)
    Trade: Mike Aviles, Bryce Brentz, Jose Iglesias, Garin Cecchini , & Henry Owens or Anthony Ranaudo

    For: Justin Upton (Just turned 25 & is under team control for 3 years @ 13:$9.75M,14:$14.25M,15:$14.5M )

    7)
    Trade: Ryan Lavarnway, Brandon Jacobs, Jose Vinicio, and Sean Coyle

    For: Brett Anderson (LHP who turns 25 in February & is under team control for 3 years) 13:$5.5M,14:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout),15:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout)

     

    8)
    Trade: Alfredo Aceves, Ryan Kalish, , and Che-Hsuan Lin
    to Nats
    For: Mike Morse (Turns 31 in March makes $7M in 2013 and then is a FA: a bridge to Gomez, Travis Shaw, Jerry Sands, Bogaerts who could be moved to 1B)

    We keep Bogaertts, Bradley & Barnes, and have this for 2013 and beyond...

    C: Salty / Sanchez (Swihart)
    1B: Morse /Gomez or Sands (Shaw)
    2B: Pedey / DeJesus
    3B: Midds / Ciriaco (Valencia)
    SS: Nakajima / Bogaerts (Marrero/ T-W Lin)
    LF: Ross / Linares
    CF: Sweeney / Bradley
    RF: Upton / de la Cruz
    DH: Ortiz

    SP1: Buch
    SP2: Lest
    SP3: Anderson
    SP4: McCarthey
    SP5: Lackey
    SP6: Morales/Doubront (de la Rosa/ Webster/ Barnes/ Workman/ Ranaudo or Owens)

    CL: Bailey
    RP: Romo:
    RP: Breslow
    RP: Mortensen
    RP: Miller (Stewart)
    RP: Hill (Carpenter)
    RP: Melancon/ Bard / Atchison (Wilson/ Beato)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from rightymclefty. Show rightymclefty's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    Except for McCarthy, I like the aggressiveness of your ideas.

    Some pitchers never recover mentally from a blow like that off a batted ball.

    I didn't realize Morse was 31 year old. He has great power to all fields. Not sure Kalish, Aceves and Lin could do it, though.

    I'd like to see Bogaerts force fed, like Baltimore is doing with Machado. Put him at SS and let's see if he fits. He's gotta hit better than Inglesias. I think my granddaughter can hit better than Inglesias.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    In response to rightymclefty's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Except for McCarthy, I like the aggressiveness of your ideas.

    Some pitchers never recover mentally from a blow like that off a batted ball.

    I didn't realize Morse was 31 year old. He has great power to all fields. Not sure Kalish, Aceves and Lin could do it, though.

    I'd like to see Bogaerts force fed, like Baltimore is doing with Machado. Put him at SS and let's see if he fits. He's gotta hit better than Inglesias. I think my granddaughter can hit better than Inglesias.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I'd be fine jumping Bogaerts to the ML level in 2013. I also think he might be better suited to play 3B, 2B, or even 1B & OF, but he needs a long look at SS first. Since we could use an upgrade at SS, why not let him and Iggy fight it out next spring?

    I'd also like to see Brentz and Bradley get a good shot at making the opening day roster, or at least get a chance to come up in July (watch their service time though).

    We have a number of positions that could be filled by a prospects or younger players:

    1B: Gomez, Sands, Valencia, Shaw (Bogaerts/Cecchini switch positions?)

    SS: Iggy, Ciriaco, Bogaerts, Lin

    LF: Brentz, Bradley, Nava, Linares, Sands

    RF: Brentz, Bradley

    (CF if Ells is dealt: Bradley)

    DH: Lava, Gomez, Sands, Linares

    C: Lavarnway

    SP: de la Rosa, Webster, Stewart

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    Nice to see Doubront show signs of regaining his early season form, but I think he needs to be shut down now. He's at about 140 IP- highest in his career.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    The only possible moves for only the 2013 season only should be FA signings ... perhaps of the "bridge" one year deal type variety. Since the budget is no longer a restraint, I am not going to criticize any short term deals designed to keep fans watching NESN and in the seats, but I do not want to see us trading prospects for guys with 1 of team control, or players on the down swing of their careers.

    I really see no point in holding onto any players who will be FAs after 2013, unless we plan on extending them.

    Ellsbury: I don't see the point of extending him this winter. Too many questions. Too much money needed to do that with Boras as his agent. The draft pick value after he becomes a FA next winter is lost if he is traded after 2013 starts. He should be traded if the value offered in return is better than the estimated value of the sandwich pick gained if we keep Ells and he walks.

    Salty: We have Lava who is unproven but promising. We have Swihart & Vazquez on the farther away horizon, but the catcher position is so important that it would be quite a gamble to put all our eggs in the prospect basket. It's a tough call on extending him, but I suppose it depends on the cost and length of the deal. 27 is still rather young for a ML catcher, especially one who has not played 100-120+ games a season behind the plater for 9 years. My projection is that Salty will be traded while his stock is high, and we will pray that Lava is improved enough behind the plate to be an asset by 2014. My own position is that Lava might get more in return via trade than Salty due to his many years of team control, low cost, and high ceiling. If I had to pull the trigger, I'd try and extend Salty 2-3 more years, and if he says no, trade him. If he says yes, trade Lava or pencil him in at DH if Papi walks.

    Breslow: I like this guy. However, he is 32 and will turn 34 in August of 2014. I'm leaning towards trying to trade him rather than extend him. Maybe as part of a bigger package. I'm not sure what his value is to other teams, but my guess is several contending teams would love him on their team next year.

    Sweeney: I wanted him traded at the deadline, as apparently Sox management did as well, but he ruined that plan. He does provide some nice and needed defense in RF and CF, but he has no long term future with this team. His trade value may be low, but in a package, he may help us upgrade somwhere.

    Hill: Probably has some trade value, but not much. He might stay and continue here on 1 year deals or arb acceptances.

    And then there are the FAs to be in 2015 or older players who don't appear to be a big part of this team for 2014 and beyond:

    Bailey: He probably stays for 2013, even if just to build value for a 2014 trade. Pray for good health and his value should rise as he pressumably will pitch well.

    Aceves: appears to have worn pout his welcome as he did in NY. It's a shame, because he could be the very best long relief pitcher in MLB today. I think he will be traded after his arb or pre-arb signing.

    Aviles: we are loaded with SS prospects, some of which appear to be ready for 2013 and certainly by 2014. He will be traded this winter, as his cost will be a bit too high for a utility IF'er. His stock should be up agfter a decent season, especially doing a surprisingly good job in the field.

    A Miller: Seems to have found his role. He has some nasty nasty stuff. I'd like to see him stay, but would be open top offers or package deals.

    Morales: I'd like to see us keep him around. Lots of potential.

    Atchison: Still has 2 pre-arb years left. Amazing for a soon-to-be 37 year old. He has done a great job for us, but should not be part of our 2014 plan. His value to a 2013 contender should be more than his value to us for 2014 and beyond.

    Looking at most of these players one by one might not make you feel like we can get great return for themt as part of larger packages, either grouped together or combined with prospects, they can help tip the balance on a trade offer to convince a team to choose our offer over others. Many of these players can be key role players for a contender next year, and although we might not think some of these guys are all that good, they are better than some contending teams current choices at key positions. Most contending teams have some pretty big weaknesses, whereby guys like Ellsbury, Salty (or Lava), Breslow, Aviles, Sweeney, Aceves, Hill, and Atchison represent a significant upgrade or at worst a very nice upgrade of their bench. Including these guys in trade offers may also lessen the need to part with key prospects.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    2013 is the perfect year to find out what we have on the farm, IMO...Some possibilities for at least a COC and possibly more in 2013...Im not counting the prospects that are already here. ie; Iggy, Lav, Gomez.

    AAA) Brentz, Stewert, Wilson, Hazelbaker, Fields, Linares, Hernandez, Kehrt, Hassan

    All the above names have a legit shot at playing in Fenway in 2013 at some point.

    AA) Bogaerts, Bradley, Shaw, Mortensen

    Out of these 4, I see Mort def seeing time in MLB, an outside shot they start Bogaerts clock (that would go against the sox philosiphy though) and depending on the OF situation, maybe JBJ late in the year. JBJ saw a noticable dip in offensive numbers, but started making all the adjustments before suffering his ankle injury. I believe he should come out of the gates blazing in 2013, which could give him a quick promotion to AAA and possibly a COC. Shaw only played 30 games in AA and might need more timethan JBJ, but could still get a promotion by years end.

    We may see some advancing to AAA and even a look at the MLB level from... Britton, Pimentel, Workman, Olmsted, Bradley, Bogaerts, Webster, Shaw

    Barnes will likely start in AA and depending on how well he does there, could see AAA by the end of the year.

    Bogaerts is in a good position, IMO, to fight for a SS position for the Sox in ST 2013. Aviles should not return and I believe Ciriaco is not an everyday starter, but a great UI. Iggy has no bat as of yet and if Bogie can show he can hit better than Iggy in ST, I would start his clock early. There have been a number of 20-21yr olds starting in MLB, and if Bogie is ready, or at least more advanced than Iggy, we should give him a shot.

    The Sox dont normally like to start young players MLB clocks this early, opting to try and get a couple prime years out of them. But Bogaerts may be the exeption to this rule. Even though still raw, he might be our best SS option. He will have some learning curves and adjustments to make, so fans will have to be patient with him if this should happen and not put the "bust" label on him after a month like so many do here.

    Just a couple of my prospect thoughts for 2013.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    The Sox dont normally like to start young players MLB clocks this early, opting to try and get a couple prime years out of them. But Bogaerts may be the exeption to this rule. Even though still raw, he might be our best SS option. He will have some learning curves and adjustments to make, so fans will have to be patient with him if this should happen and not put the "bust" label on him after a month like so many do here.

     

    I agree, he may be the best we have right now, but why "start the clock" when we have little chance of going deep in or even making the playoffs next year?

    I think the Sox trade Aviles, and give the job to Iggy & Ciriaco as the one not playing is that days UIF. (DeJesus could also be in the mix.)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Options

    We may see some advancing to AAA and even a look at the MLB level from... Britton, Pimentel, Workman, Olmsted, Bradley, Bogaerts, Webster, Shaw. Barnes will likely start in AA and depending on how well he does there, could see AAA by the end of the year.

     

    We also have de la Rosa, Stewart, Carpenter, and Ranaudo who could see ML action next season.

     
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