2012 Payroll

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    2012 Payroll

    Unless Theo is able to get rid of Lackey and/or Crawford and eat some of the contract, they will have to let Ortiz go in order to keep payroll in check.

    Drew is gone ($14M) and some other pieces won't be back ($8M), but there's about a $15M per year increase with Gonzalez, $3-5M with Papelbon and a huge increase for Ellsbury in arbitration.

    The Red Sox need a RF who can hit, not a DMac. They won't go with L,L,L as their everyday outfield.

    They may try and sign Cuddyer ($8M per for 3 years), let Youk DH, and save the $12M by letting Ortiz go.

    This team needs to get younger, quickly.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    I will be shocked of Papi is not in a Sox uniform next year.

    I think a lot of what happens next year will be decided on how the Sox finish out this year. Only time will tell.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    I will be shocked of Papi is not in a Sox uniform next year. I think a lot of what happens next year will be decided on how the Sox finish out this year. Only time will tell.
    Posted by jesseyeric


    Then if you are right, they are looking at a payroll of $190M.

    Additions to 2012:
    Gonzalez +15M
    Papelbon +4
    Ellsbury +6
    Aceves +2-3
    TBD righthanded hitting RF

    Subtractions:
    Drew -14
    Wakefield -2
    Scutaro -3

    That's about +16 independant of any arb. eligible guys.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to 2012 Payroll:
    Unless Theo is able to get rid of Lackey and/or Crawford and eat some of the contract, they will have to let Ortiz go in order to keep payroll in check. Drew is gone ($14M) and some other pieces won't be back ($8M), but there's about a $15M per year increase with Gonzalez, $3-5M with Papelbon and a huge increase for Ellsbury in arbitration. The Red Sox need a RF who can hit, not a DMac. They won't go with L,L,L as their everyday outfield. They may try and sign Cuddyer ($8M per for 3 years), let Youk DH, and save the $12M by letting Ortiz go. This team needs to get younger, quickly. Thoughts?
    Posted by ADG


    The Sox could still have Cam, Scuter, Drew, Pap and David off the books next season.

    We need a starting pitcher, or "middle reliever" and possibly move a guy like Aceves to starter.  We also need as you suggested a RF along with help in the pen.  This could force Theo's hand in dumping players like Tek, Wake and possibly even Pap or David.  Lackey appears to be a mistake that may really haunt us, I still think CC will recover.
     
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    Re: 2012 Payroll


















     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll : Then if you are right, they are looking at a payroll of $190M. Additions to 2012: Gonzalez +15M Papelbon +4 Ellsbury +6 Aceves +2-3 TBD righthanded hitting RF Subtractions: Drew -14 Wakefield -2 Scutaro -3 That's about +16 independant of any arb. eligible guys.
    Posted by ADG
    That's not exactly independent of arbitration eligibles because you hit two of the big three arbitration guys (Aceves and Ellsbury) and only of the notables you did not include Bard.

    This will all be dependent on what the RS internal position is on becoming longer term CBT payers because it was safe to assume IMO that the RS were hoping that Bard would replace Papelbon, Ortiz would likely be left to walk or signed for less than he is entitled to demand because of the year he has just had.

    The failure of Lackey, Doubront's lack of development because of injuries, Kalish's lost year, Dice K being lost to TJ, Iggy's lack of hitting at AAA and Crawford's horrible year are all things that complicate 2012 for the team IMO.

    Let's keep in mind it is not going to be possible to get Ortiz offense in the FA in thr form of a RH OFer. And while signing longer term deals with closers is very risky stuff, Papelbon has been when you get past the whining about his weaker years based on his standards of performance is a very special closer.

    Their challenges are profound and while lackey and Crawford are big expenditures under performing, even if the money were freed up, I am not sure the right players on market this year to solve the RS other needs. It sure isn't in this year's FA OFer class.    
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    In Response to 2012 Payroll : The Sox could still have Cam, Scuter, Drew, Pap and David off the books next season. We need a starting pitcher, or "middle reliever" and possibly move a guy like Aceves to starter.  We also need as you suggested a RF along with help in the pen.  This could force Theo's hand in dumping players like Tek, Wake and possibly even Pap or David.  Lackey appears to be a mistake that may really haunt us, I still think CC will recover.
    Posted by craze4sox
    If the Crawford ever plays like his contract, I would be shocked. But if that were the case, Lackey's deal is far from crippling.

    Letting Ortiz and Papelbon walk to address other needs is not all that simple.

    Ortiz's 30 + HR, high OBP/OPS and 100+ RBI will not be easily replaced. Papelbon is a very elite closer and even if Bard were to assume his role, whom assumes his.

    I don't think the FA is the answer for the RS. Here are the starting pitchers that MAY be available:

    Starting Pitchers
    Mark Buehrle CWS
    Chris Carpenter STL *
    Bruce Chen KC
    Aaron Cook COL *
    Kyle Davies KC
    Ryan Dempster CHC *
    Justin Duchscherer OAK
    Zach Duke ARI *
    Jeff Francis KC
    Freddy Garcia NYY
    Jon Garland LAD *
    Aaron Harang SD
    Rich Harden OAK
    Livan Hernandez WAS
    Edwin Jackson CWS
    Kenshin Kawakami ATL
    Scott Kazmir LAA
    Hiroki Kuroda LAD
    Rodrigo Lopez CHC
    Paul Maholm PIT
    John Maine COL
    Jason Marquis WAS
    Kevin Millwood NYY
    Scott Olsen PIT *
    Roy Oswalt PHI *
    Brad Penny DET
    Oliver Perez NYM
    Joel Pineiro LAA
    CC Sabathia NYY (may opt out)
    Carlos Silva NYY
    Javier Vazquez FLA
    Adam Wainwright STL *
    Tim Wakefield BOS
    Chien-Ming Wang WAS
    Brandon Webb ARI
    C.J. Wilson TEX
    Chris Young NYM



    And here are the OFers that MAY be available:

    Outfielders
    Bobby Abreu LAA *
    Rick Ankiel WAS
    Carlos Beltran NYM
    Milton Bradley SEA
    Pat Burrell SF
    Mike Cameron BOS
    Coco Crisp OAK
    Michael Cuddyer MIN
    Jack Cust SEA
    Johnny Damon TB
    David DeJesus OAK
    J.D. Drew BOS
    Kosuke Fukudome CHC
    Jonny Gomes CIN
    Gabe Gross OAK
    Vladimir Guerrero BAL
    Scott Hairston NYM
    Willie Harris NYM
    Raul Ibanez PHI
    Conor Jackson OAK
    Andruw Jones NYY
    Austin Kearns CLE
    Jason Kubel MIN
    Ryan Ludwick SD
    Hideki Matsui OAK
    Nate McLouth ATL *
    Jason Michaels HOU
    Laynce Nix WAS
    Magglio Ordonez DET
    Juan Pierre CWS
    Juan Rivera TOR
    Cody Ross SF
    Grady Sizemore CLE *
    Matt Stairs WAS
    Nick Swisher NYY *
    Marcus Thames LAD
    Josh Willingham OAK
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    Not for nothing but Granderson was in line to be the goat last year for the Yanks batting under 250. Not comparing Granderson to Crawford (this year), but new team, bigger market, new contract, some injuries that first year. It's almost an identical situation. All I'm saying is don't write Crawford off just yet. Bad years happen. I guess I'm more forgiving than most.

    Again, I don't think Ortiz is getting another $12M as a DH from any team. I do think the Sox will match and go beyond any offer though. If he's truly concerned about the pitching staff and winning, yeah, a reasonable home town discount would be nice to see.

    That free agent list leaves something to be desired. The only OF that I could really see going after is Beltran, and unfortunately he might be too injury prone.
    It's very intriguing on paper though.

    Do the Sox go after Sabathia? Might have to, right?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll : If the Crawford ever plays like his contract, I would be shocked. But if that were the case, Lackey's deal is far from crippling. Letting Ortiz and Papelbon walk to address other needs is not all that simple. Ortiz's 30 + HR, high OBP/OPS and 100+ RBI will not be easily replaced. Papelbon is a very elite closer and even if Bard were to assume his role, whom assumes his. I don't think the FA is the answer for the RS. Here are the starting pitchers that MAY be available: Starting Pitchers Mark Buehrle CWS Chris Carpenter STL * Bruce Chen KC Aaron Cook COL * Kyle Davies KC Ryan Dempster CHC * Justin Duchscherer OAK Zach Duke ARI * Jeff Francis KC Freddy Garcia NYY Jon Garland LAD * Aaron Harang SD Rich Harden OAK Livan Hernandez WAS Edwin Jackson CWS Kenshin Kawakami ATL Scott Kazmir LAA Hiroki Kuroda LAD Rodrigo Lopez CHC Paul Maholm PIT John Maine COL Jason Marquis WAS Kevin Millwood NYY Scott Olsen PIT * Roy Oswalt PHI * Brad Penny DET Oliver Perez NYM Joel Pineiro LAA CC Sabathia NYY (may opt out) Carlos Silva NYY Javier Vazquez FLA Adam Wainwright STL * Tim Wakefield BOS Chien-Ming Wang WAS Brandon Webb ARI C.J. Wilson TEX Chris Young NYM And here are the OFers that MAY be available: Outfielders Bobby Abreu LAA * Rick Ankiel WAS Carlos Beltran NYM Milton Bradley SEA Pat Burrell SF Mike Cameron BOS Coco Crisp OAK Michael Cuddyer MIN Jack Cust SEA Johnny Damon TB David DeJesus OAK J.D. Drew BOS Kosuke Fukudome CHC Jonny Gomes CIN Gabe Gross OAK Vladimir Guerrero BAL Scott Hairston NYM Willie Harris NYM Raul Ibanez PHI Conor Jackson OAK Andruw Jones NYY Austin Kearns CLE Jason Kubel MIN Ryan Ludwick SD Hideki Matsui OAK Nate McLouth ATL * Jason Michaels HOU Laynce Nix WAS Magglio Ordonez DET Juan Pierre CWS Juan Rivera TOR Cody Ross SF Grady Sizemore CLE * Matt Stairs WAS Nick Swisher NYY * Marcus Thames LAD Josh Willingham OAK
    Posted by fivekatz


    Outside of miracle like CJ Wilson getting lose I totally agree fivekatz.  I think at this point we should keep both David and Pap.  Another good starter may just be a dream like hoping both Lackey and CC turn things around.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    You might be surprised at how little Ellsbury, Aceves, and Bard make in arbitration. Typically, the big arb raises come in a player's final arb season. The arbitrator also looks beyond just the last season's numbers.

    Also, in terms of figuring how much budget money is left over to spend, the salary to use is average salary of the contract and NOT the actual season nuumbers. Luxury tax is figured on a player's average contract cost per year. Here's what I came up with earlier on another thread:

    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses).

    This winter....

    There will be some arb induced raises:
    Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb year 2 of 3)
    Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4)
    Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)

    My guess is we may add about $15M to the budget here.

    There are options:
    Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out)
    Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached)
    A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here)

    Assume we let Wheeler go and keep Scutaro ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) and Miller. We save $3M here.

    Let's say up to now we are $12M in the hole.

    Then, there are FreeAgents:
    JD Drew    $14M  
    Ortiz          $12.5M
    Papelbon  $10.33M
    Varitek      $2M
    Wakefield $2M
    Bedard      $1M

    Total: $42M

    I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below.

    Let's say we keep Papi and Paps as well as Wake & VTek for cheap:
    Drew ($14M) walks
    Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $25M/2 plus incentives
    Paps (10.33M) signs for $56M/4
    VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $1.5M/1
    Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $1M plus incentives.
    Total yearly cost: $17M
    ($42M-$29M= +$13M differential.)

    Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have nothing left to spend on improving other positions: 

    Here are some possible in house solutions:

    If Paps walks: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?) 
    If Papi walks: DH: Lavarnway or Youk (Lowrie/Aviles at 3B)
    RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac)
    RP: (not many options)

    If we sign no FAs  and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster:

    C: Salty/Vtek
    1B: AGon
    2B: Pedey
    3B: Youk
    SS: Scutaro/Aviles/Lowrie
    LF: Craw/DMac
    CF: Ells
    RF: Reddick/Kalish
    DH: Papi
    (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias)

    SP1 Beckett
    SP2 Lester
    SP3 Buch
    SP4 Lack
    SP5 Wake
    SP6 Dice or Miller
    RP1 Bard
    RP2 Jenks
    RP3 Aceves
    RP4 Albers
    RP5 Morales
    RP6 Doubront/Weiland
    (several other options)

    The only way we get more money to spend is to let...
    Papi walk (+12.5M from my figures)
    Paps walk (+$14M from my numbers above)
    Scutty walk (+$4.5M not $6, since he has a buyout)
    Miller walk (+$3M)


     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    You might be surprised at how little Ellsbury, Aceves, and Bard make in arbitration. Typically, the big arb raises come in a player's final arb season. The arbitrator also looks beyond just the last season's numbers. Also, in terms of figuring how much budget money is left over to spend, the salary to use is average salary of the contract and NOT the actual season nuumbers. Luxury tax is figured on a player's average contract cost per year. Here's what I came up with earlier on another thread: According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses). This winter.... There will be some arb induced raises: Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb year 2 of 3) Albers    $875K /> ? (Arb 3 of 4) Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) My guess is we may add about $15M to the budget here. There are options: Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out) Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached) A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here) Assume we let Wheeler go and keep Scutaro ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) and Miller. We save $3M here. Let's say up to now we are $12M in the hole. Then, there are FreeAgents: JD Drew    $14M   Ortiz          $12.5M Papelbon  $10.33M Varitek      $2M Wakefield $2M Bedard      $1M Total: $42M I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below. Let's say we keep Papi and Paps as well as Wake & VTek for cheap: Drew ($14M) walks Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $25M/2 plus incentives Paps (10.33M) signs for $56M/4 VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $1.5M/1 Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $1M plus incentives. Total yearly cost: $17M ($42M-$29M= +$13M differential.) Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have nothing left to spend on improving other positions:  Here are some possible in house solutions: If Paps walks: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)  If Papi walks: DH: Lavarnway or Youk (Lowrie/Aviles at 3B) RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac) RP: (not many options) If we sign no FAs  and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster: C: Salty/Vtek 1B: AGon 2B: Pedey 3B: Youk SS: Scutaro/Aviles/Lowrie LF: Craw/DMac CF: Ells RF: Reddick/Kalish DH: Papi (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias) SP1 Beckett SP2 Lester SP3 Buch SP4 Lack SP5 Wake SP6 Dice or Miller RP1 Bard RP2 Jenks RP3 Aceves RP4 Albers RP5 Morales RP6 Doubront/Weiland (several other options) The only way we get more money to spend is to let... Papi walk (+12.5M from my figures) Paps walk (+$14M from my numbers above) Scutty walk (+$4.5M not $6, since he has a buyout) Miller walk (+$3M)
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon, I understand how you feel about Wake but don't you feel this may be his last year?  Weiland has been getting a lot of time on the mound so we must think pretty highly of him.  I personally feel we need a strong number 4 the way Lackey pitches, this may only happen through trade or free agency.  CJ Wilson would be my target if Texas still can't find a taker for Young and he is up for bid.  Bedard or another less expensive starter may be a cheeper alternative if we choose to resign David and Pap.

    Where do you feel Weiland fits next season and how would you address our starting rotation and pen if Wake retires and Pap leaves? 






     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    Wakefield is ready to return and perform his quality innings and potato salad eating act.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll : moon, I understand how you feel about Wake but don't you feel this may be his last year?  

    You know my position. Of course it could be his last year, but if he wants to come back as a 6/7 starter for $1-1.5M. I'd say yes in a heartbeat.

    Weiland has been getting a lot of time on the mound so we must think pretty highly of him.  

    Weiland is exposing softy's myth that there are many prospects and easily obtained pitchers around the league that are better than Wake.

    I personally feel we need a strong number 4 the way Lackey pitches, this may only happen through trade or free agency.  CJ Wilson would be my target if Texas still can't find a taker for Young and he is up for bid.  

    Thanks to Crawford and Lackey, we can;t afford CJ, unless we let Papi and Paps walk and backfill their slots from within.

    Bedard or another less expensive starter may be a cheeper alternative if we choose to resign David and Pap. Where do you feel Weiland fits next season and how would you address our starting rotation and pen if Wake retires and Pap leaves? 

    I hope we dont have to count on Weiland to be our #4-5 next year, but our budget is very limited.

    Posted by craze4sox


     
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    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll :
    Posted by moonslav59


    I think Wake has a better chance of hanging around than Pap or David if we do need a starter.  I agree Weiland isn't ready for the bigs.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from highflysox. Show highflysox's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll : I think Wake has a better chance of hanging around than Pap or David if we do need a starter.  I agree Weiland isn't ready for the bigs.
    Posted by craze4sox








    Wake is not good enough to make the pawsox roster in 2012
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    You might be surprised at how little Ellsbury, Aceves, and Bard make in arbitration. Typically, the big arb raises come in a player's final arb season. The arbitrator also looks beyond just the last season's numbers. Also, in terms of figuring how much budget money is left over to spend, the salary to use is average salary of the contract and NOT the actual season nuumbers. Luxury tax is figured on a player's average contract cost per year. Here's what I came up with earlier on another thread: According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses). This winter.... There will be some arb induced raises: Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb year 2 of 3) Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4) Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) My guess is we may add about $15M to the budget here. There are options: Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out) Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached) A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here) Assume we let Wheeler go and keep Scutaro ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) and Miller. We save $3M here. Let's say up to now we are $12M in the hole. Then, there are FreeAgents: JD Drew    $14M   Ortiz          $12.5M Papelbon  $10.33M Varitek      $2M Wakefield $2M Bedard      $1M Total: $42M I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below. Let's say we keep Papi and Paps as well as Wake & VTek for cheap: Drew ($14M) walks Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $25M/2 plus incentives Paps (10.33M) signs for $56M/4 VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $1.5M/1 Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $1M plus incentives. Total yearly cost: $17M ($42M-$29M= +$13M differential.) Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have nothing left to spend on improving other positions:  Here are some possible in house solutions: If Paps walks: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)  If Papi walks: DH: Lavarnway or Youk (Lowrie/Aviles at 3B) RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac) RP: (not many options) If we sign no FAs  and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster: C: Salty/Vtek 1B: AGon 2B: Pedey 3B: Youk SS: Scutaro/Aviles/Lowrie LF: Craw/DMac CF: Ells RF: Reddick/Kalish DH: Papi (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias) SP1 Beckett SP2 Lester SP3 Buch SP4 Lack SP5 Wake SP6 Dice or Miller RP1 Bard RP2 Jenks RP3 Aceves RP4 Albers RP5 Morales RP6 Doubront/Weiland (several other options) The only way we get more money to spend is to let... Papi walk (+12.5M from my figures) Paps walk (+$14M from my numbers above) Scutty walk (+$4.5M not $6, since he has a buyout) Miller walk (+$3M)
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon - Great analysis. 

    Comments:
    1. I don't think DMac is brought back. He made way too many mistakes in the outfield and on the bases.
    2. Scutaro will be interesting if the Red Sox play poker. They won't excercise the $6M, but will Scutaro accept $3M.
    3. I don't see Wake coming back. Too many issues.
    4. Miller won't come back unless he takes a cheap deal.

    They need to spend money on a RF and bullpen help
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll :
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon - The problem with Wakefield is the roster position issue. He's not a guy that provides value in the bullpen, but as a 6-7 starter. I think he's gone.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from theomoron. Show theomoron's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    theo the moron is king midas in reverse; every FA he touches turns to poo-poo.

    time for theo to don the gorilla suit and take his stupid act somewhere else.
    oh yeah, please take the other monkey, 'coma, with you.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    moon - Great analysis. 

    Thanks. I'm not an expert on the budget and luxury tax, but I think my numbers are pretty close.

    Comments:
    1. I don't think DMac is brought back. He made way too many mistakes in the outfield and on the bases.

    DMac is an arb case, so I think he will be back and possibly traded. He has value to this team as a platoon for Crawford in LF, but that ain't happenin'. He normally hits LHPs very well, but I have said all along, he should never play RF (esp in Fenway) of CF. It wouldn't hurt me if he is gone. The cost savings would be near nothing since he is near min wage already.

    2. Scutaro will be interesting if the Red Sox play poker. They won't excercise the $6M, but will Scutaro accept $3M.

    A) Why would Scutaro take the $3M player option, when he can get  $1.5M buyout and sign somewhere else, so his total comes to way over $3M ($1.5m + $3+M from another team = $4.5+M)
    B) I think the Sox bring him back at $6M, since they would pay $1.5 for him to walk. The net differential is $4.5M. In my opinion, he is worth that. Personally, I'm fine with a .200 hitting Iglesias at SS, but that's a subject for another day.


    3. I don't see Wake coming back. Too many issues.

    I wouldn't be upset if he doesn't come back, but mark my words, next year we will need a 7th starter and probably an 8th and 9th as well, and finding one like Wake for $1M or so at the trade deadline will be impossible.  Remember, Wake gave us 15 good starts before melting down. The key next year will be to not have to use him for 25.

    4. Miller won't come back unless he takes a cheap deal.

    $3m is a lot for a gamble like him, I agree.

    They need to spend money on a RF and bullpen help.

    If we re-sign Papi and Paps, there will be little money left for RF and the pen, unless we raise our payroll budget. I know you hate to hear this, but I think our pen hopes rely on Jenks and Doubront.

    moon - The problem with Wakefield is the roster position issue. He's not a guy that provides value in the bullpen, but as a 6-7 starter. I think he's gone.

    I doubt he'd ever accept a AAA assignment, so your point is valid about the roster spot, but I still think Wake is a bargain at 41-1.5M for 15 starts next year.

    (He actually hasn't done bad in relief over the past 2 years.)
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    moon - Maybe the thing to do with Wakefield is offer him the pitching coach position for the Pawsox. They can keep him within the system and if by chance a need comes during the year that they need a 7th or 8th starter, they tell him to start throwing.

    It has created a quandry since 2009. Also, how many unearned runs caused by knuckle ball passed balls would go away?  Yes they don't count against his ERA but they are runs no less.
     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    moon - Maybe the thing to do with Wakefield is offer him the pitching coach position for the Pawsox. They can keep him within the system and if by chance a need comes during the year that they need a 7th or 8th starter, they tell him to start throwing.

    Not a bad idea.

    It has created a quandry since 2009. Also, how many unearned runs caused by knuckle ball passed balls would go away?  Yes they don't count against his ERA but they are runs no less.

    We still are like 12-10 in games he started. I understand your point about PBs and WPs. It is valid, but you could also discount a little for how many more inherited runners our pen has allowed for Wake vs others. You can also look at all the IF hits, sac flies, and misplayed balls for hits have occured with Wake. It has been more than with other Sox starters.

    He's been bad his last 6-7 starts...no doubt, but the value is still there next year as 12-16 start guy.
    Posted by ADG

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    In Response to Re: 2012 Payroll:
    Not for nothing but Granderson was in line to be the goat last year for the Yanks batting under 250. Not comparing Granderson to Crawford (this year), but new team, bigger market, new contract, some injuries that first year. It's almost an identical situation. All I'm saying is don't write Crawford off just yet. Bad years happen. I guess I'm more forgiving than most.
    Posted by emp9


    I think the Granderson comparison is a fair one.  Guys can have down years, especially in new places, especially when they are put in a new role.  Crawford got off to a horrible start which didn't help either.  I believe better seasons are ahead for Carl.

    I think you have to bring Papi back.  2/25 range with a club option on the 3rd and a buyout clause.  The market for a 12 million dollar DH is thin and this year he has been 1 of the most productive hitters in MLB.  You gotta pay him.

    As to the overall payroll discussion, there are also increases for Crawford, Lester, Pedrioa, and Clay totaling about 12 million I think.  Clay and Lester are both extremely backloaded contracts, which has to be considered.

    Youk's health is an ever growing concern and it seems more and more likely that he the club might not take his 13 million option for 2013 and go in a cheaper direction at 3B.  I suppose a lot will depend on his health and production next year. 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from aussiewill. Show aussiewill's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    Forget Scutaro, Theo never resigns shortstops. How's Alex Gonzalez for $ 3 million in Atlanta ,gone this year?
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Payroll

    Remember, not giving Scutaro his option means we pay him $1.5M to not play here.

    If you look at my model and subtract Miller and Scutaro, we'd have about $7M to spend on upgrading SS, RF and the pen. We could go with Iglesias, Aviles and Lowrie at SS and spend it all in RF or the pen.

    We could let Papi walk and use Youk at DH or Lavarnway or both at DH (and Aviles/Lowrie at 3B).

    We could let Paps walk and use Bard as the closer and use the saved money to get a couple set up guys or a RH'd RF'er.

    There's not many options that don't open up other holes, unless we can trade salary away (maybe paying some partial contracts).
     
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