Re: 2012 Payroll
posted at 9/21/2011 12:33 PM EDT
moon - Great analysis.
Thanks. I'm not an expert on the budget and luxury tax, but I think my numbers are pretty close.
1. I don't think DMac is brought back. He made way too many mistakes in the outfield and on the bases.
DMac is an arb case, so I think he will be back and possibly traded. He has value to this team as a platoon for Crawford in LF, but that ain't happenin'. He normally hits LHPs very well, but I have said all along, he should never play RF (esp in Fenway) of CF. It wouldn't hurt me if he is gone. The cost savings would be near nothing since he is near min wage already.
2. Scutaro will be interesting if the Red Sox play poker. They won't excercise the $6M, but will Scutaro accept $3M.
A) Why would Scutaro take the $3M player option, when he can get $1.5M buyout and sign somewhere else, so his total comes to way over $3M ($1.5m + $3+M from another team = $4.5+M)
B) I think the Sox bring him back at $6M, since they would pay $1.5 for him to walk. The net differential is $4.5M. In my opinion, he is worth that. Personally, I'm fine with a .200 hitting Iglesias at SS, but that's a subject for another day.
3. I don't see Wake coming back. Too many issues.
I wouldn't be upset if he doesn't come back, but mark my words, next year we will need a 7th starter and probably an 8th and 9th as well, and finding one like Wake for $1M or so at the trade deadline will be impossible. Remember, Wake gave us 15 good starts before melting down. The key next year will be to not have to use him for 25.
4. Miller won't come back unless he takes a cheap deal.
$3m is a lot for a gamble like him, I agree.
They need to spend money on a RF and bullpen help.
If we re-sign Papi and Paps, there will be little money left for RF and the pen, unless we raise our payroll budget. I know you hate to hear this, but I think our pen hopes rely on Jenks and Doubront.
moon - The problem with Wakefield is the roster position issue. He's not a guy that provides value in the bullpen, but as a 6-7 starter. I think he's gone.
I doubt he'd ever accept a AAA assignment, so your point is valid about the roster spot, but I still think Wake is a bargain at 41-1.5M for 15 starts next year.
(He actually hasn't done bad in relief over the past 2 years.)