2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses).

    There will be some arb induced raises:
    Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb 2 of 3)
    Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4)
    Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)

    There are options:
    Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out)
    Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached)
    A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here)

    There are FreeAgents:
    JD Drew    $14M  
    Ortiz          $12.5M
    Papelbon  $10.33M
    Varitek      $2M
    Wakefield $2M
    Bedard      $1M

    I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below.

    I think Theo does not give Scutaro the club option, so if Scutty is back, it will be at $3M. I think Wheeler is not given his option, and I am not sure what the deal is with Miller anymore.

    I think the arb induced raises will not be very large. None of the players are in their last arb year. Ellsbury and Salty will get nice raises, but not grand. Albers, Aceves, and Bard will do OK also.

    My numbers may be wrong here, and my projections as well, but I'll say the arb guys get a total of $7M more in 2012 than in 2011. If Scutty ($7M on luxury tax role) and Wheeler ($3M) do not come back, that saves us about $10M. Assuming we bring Miller back, my guess is we will be evened out on arbs and options.

    My projections on Free Agents:
    Drew ($14M) walks
    Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $20M/2 plus incentives
    Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets the type A compensation)
    VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1
    Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives.

    Free agent net cost: $27M gain (lose Paps and Drew).

    Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25-30M to spend on these holes (Possible in house solutions):

    Closer: (Bard? Jenks?) 
    SS: (Aviles, Lowrie, Iglesias)
    RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac)
    RP: (several options)

    If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster:

    C: Salty/Vtek
    1B: AGon
    2B: Pedey
    3B: Youk
    SS: Aviles/Lowrie
    LF: Craw/DMac
    CF: Ells
    RF: Reddick/Kalish
    DH: Papi
    (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias)

    SP1 Beckett
    SP2 Lester
    SP3 Buch
    SP4 Lack
    SP5 Wake
    SP6 Dice or Miller
    RP1 Bard
    RP2 Jenks
    RP3 Albers
    RP4 Aceves
    RP5 Morales
    RP6 Doubront
    (several other options)

    There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club.

    Your thoughts?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    What keeps happening to the thread?

    Overall, I don't see any major additions.  An arm and a better right handed bat and that's about it.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    Papi? Paps? Scutaro? Wheeler? Wake? Vtek?

    A lot depends on these decisions.

    I agree in principle, a RH'd platoon RF'er who can field well and has an arm along with a another arm (to replace Bedard/Dice-K) and keep our starting staff depth high.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from tbrod. Show tbrod's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    A platoon RF on a team with less right handed power than they've had in decades?
    Yeah, OK.
    If you think Mr. 240 since the All-Star break and .214 for August, is the answer, you'd better revisit your stats.
    Like Kalish, he has value as a 4th OF.
    This OF is weak on production, and just what if Jacoby doesn't have the year he's having. You'd need to go to the dead ball era to find a more feeble Sox OF.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions:
    Papi? Paps? Scutaro? Wheeler? Wake? Vtek? A lot depends on these decisions. I agree in principle, a RH'd platoon RF'er who can field well and has an arm along with a another arm (to replace Bedard/Dice-K) and keep our starting staff depth high.
    Posted by moonslav59


    I didn't say there wouldn't be major decisions but as far as additions... nothing major.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    I happen to think Reddick/Kalish can provide good numbers vs RHPs going forward. My biggest concern is our OF numbers vs LHPs. I doubt Theo will spend big to get an all around OF'er this winter, unless he lets Papi walk.

    I'd also like to have a platoon for LF, but it ain't happenin'.

    I wouldn't mind seeing HanRam in RF next year.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    Interesting money off the books article by Jim Bowden from ESPN
    1. Boston Red Sox: $48,750,000
    2. Minnesota Twins: $37,150,000
    3. Detroit Tigers: $35,250,000
    4. Oakland Athletics: $29,620,000
    5. Chicago White Sox: $25,450,000
    6. New York Yankees: $22.500,000
    7. Toronto Blue Jays: $15,600,000
    8. Baltimore Orioles: $15,500,000
    9. Los Angeles Angels: $14,500,000
    10. Texas Rangers: $10,300,000
    11. Tampa Bay Rays: $10,025,000
    12. Kansas City Royals: $8,600,000
    13. Cleveland Indians: $8,275,000
    14. Seattle Mariners: $7,650,000
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions:
    Interesting money off the books article by Jim Bowden from ESPN 1. Boston Red Sox : $48,750,000 2. Minnesota Twins : $37,150,000 3. Detroit Tigers : $35,250,000 4. Oakland Athletics : $29,620,000 5. Chicago White Sox : $25,450,000 6. New York Yankees : $22.500,000 7. Toronto Blue Jays : $15,600,000 8. Baltimore Orioles : $15,500,000 9. Los Angeles Angels : $14,500,000 10. Texas Rangers : $10,300,000 11. Tampa Bay Rays : $10,025,000 12. Kansas City Royals : $8,600,000 13. Cleveland Indians : $8,275,000 14. Seattle Mariners : $7,650,000
    Posted by rkarp

    Do you have a link to Jim Bowden's piece?

    The Seattle Mariners should have $20+ million coming off the books with Milton Bradley, Jack Wilson, Jack Cust, Chris Ray, Adam Kennedy, Jamey Wright, Ryan Langerhans and probably non-tender candidate David Aardsma.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dHlaVTZxQUNfLWxSMnRxUXhMeXV1RHc&output=html
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    Whether they’re in a pennant race or not, major-league general managers are already working feverishly on next year’s team. Between now and the rest of the season, they are keeping an eye on every player who will be eligible for free agency. They want to make sure they get as many scouting opinions as possible from their top evaluators all the way down to their scouting supervisors. At the same time, they are letting their research-and-development team study and analyze all statistical, medical, financial and personal information that they can gather from every source imaginable. Clubs want to be as prepared as possible for the first day of free agency.

    Every GM will have an overall ranking of the free-agent class as well as by position. Of course, how involved they actually get in free agency will have more to do with their team’s future payroll budgets, existing long-term contracts, arbitration eligible players, players available through trade and what minor-league prospects are ready to make the major-league club. Free agency is usually a last resort to improve a team because it’s the most expensive way to get better. Unless you are a player or two away from being a World Series contender or your team has the financial wherewithal to chase the top players in the class, the preference for most clubs is to improve the team through the draft, farm system and trades.

    The top players in this year’s free-agent class include Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Beltran, David Ortiz, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez.

    So who is going to be the most active in free agency? To get a sense of this, I've estimated the money that each club has coming off the books at the and of the season. We'll start with the American League today, and break down the NL later in the week.
    1. Boston Red Sox: $48,750,000
    2. Minnesota Twins: $37,150,000
    3. Detroit Tigers: $35,250,000
    4. Oakland Athletics: $29,620,000
    5. Chicago White Sox: $25,450,000
    6. New York Yankees: $22.500,000
    7. Toronto Blue Jays: $15,600,000
    8. Baltimore Orioles: $15,500,000
    9. Los Angeles Angels: $14,500,000
    10. Texas Rangers: $10,300,000
    11. Tampa Bay Rays: $10,025,000
    12. Kansas City Royals: $8,600,000
    13. Cleveland Indians: $8,275,000
    14. Seattle Mariners: $7,650,000

    Keep in mind that each team's arbitration-eligible players as well as long-term contractual commitments factor into their financial payroll flexibility. Here's a breakdown of how it looks for each of the AL teams.

    AL EAST

    Baltimore Orioles
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $85.3 million
    Money coming off the books: $15.5 million
    Notable free agents: Mike Gonzalez, Cesar Izturis, Vladimir Guerrero

    The Orioles are expected to try and improve the team through free agency with an emphasis on starting and relief pitcher. Although an impact bat like Fielder or Pujols for the middle of the lineup would certainly impact their young position players like Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters, the team is not close enough to contending that they should be making that kind of expenditure right now. The O's will be glad to get Guerrero’s and Gonzalez combined $14 million salaries off the books.

    Boston Red Sox
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $161.4 million
    Money coming off the books: $48.75 million
    Notable free agents: Tim Wakefield, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Marco Scutaro (player and club option), J.D. Drew

    The Red Sox have the most money coming off the books of any American League team. They would like to resign both Papelbon and Ortiz. However, if Papelbon leaves through free agency, they’ll get two first-round draft choices because of his likely Type-A status, and could utilize his dollars to sign another impact closer like Heath Bell or Francisco Rodriguez. C.J. Wilson would be a nice addition to the rotation, and if they’re concerned about Jose Iglesias bat they could always make a run at Reyes or Rollins for shortstop.

    New York Yankees

    2011 Opening Day payroll: $201.7 million
    Money coming off the books: $22.5 million
    Notable free agents: Freddy Garcia, Damaso Marte, Sergio Mitre, Eric Chavez, Jorge Posada, Andruw Jones

    The Yankees have been fortunate that reclamation projects Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have stabilized their rotation behind CC Sabathia. However, I doubt they go another year without adding a long-term solution in the rotation like C.J. Wilson.

    Tampa Bay Rays
    2011 Opening Day payroll: 41.9 million
    Money coming off the books: $10 million
    Notable free agents: Juan Cruz, Joel Peralta, Kelly Shoppach (team option), Johnny Damon

    The Rays will spend most of the off-season working on trading one of their more expensive starting pitchers to make room for top pitching prospect Matt Moore. Except for a low-cost reliever or inexpensive bat, they won’t dabble much the in the free-agent market.

    Toronto Blue Jays
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $62.5 million
    Money coming off the books: $15.6 million
    Notable free agents: Shawn Camp, Frank Francisco, Edwin Encarnacion (team option), Jose Molina

    The Blue Jays are a real wild card in the free-agent market. They are getting close to being legitimate contenders, and if the right long-term free agent is available they could be ready to jump. One of the available top free-agent closers, bullpen help and a mid-level second baseman are probably the best bets if they decide to be active free agency.

    AL CENTRAL

    Chicago White Sox
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $129.3 million
    Money coming off the books: $25.45 million
    Notable free agents: Mark Buehrle, Omar Vizquel, Ramon Castro, Juan Pierre

    The White Sox's front office has been loyal over the years and Mark Buehrle wants to stay on the south side of Chicago. Considering their payroll will already be in the nine figures, Buehrle will probably be their only free-agent play. The rest of the team will most likely be improved via trades.

    Cleveland Indians
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $49.2 million
    Money coming off the books: $8.275 million
    Notable free agents: Kosuke Fukodome, Grady Sizemore (team option)

    The Indians will need to decide the health risk and trade value on Sizemore before picking up the option. They are already stuck with another year of $13 million on Travis Hafner. They’d really like to get another bat either for DH or left field and could be players on Carlos Beltran, Ryan Ludwick or Josh Willingham.

    Detroit Tigers
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $105.7 million
    Money coming off the books: $28.25 million (not including Valverde)
    Notable free agents: Brad Penny, Jose Valverde, ($9 million team option they will definitely exercise if the stays healthy), Carlos Guillen, Ramon Santiago, Wilson Betemit, Magglio Ordonez

    The Tigers will likely pick up the team option on Valverde’s contract and could bring Wilson Betemit back if the price is right. They most likely will have to upgrade second base and third through trades and if they delve into the free agency, starting pitching should continue to be their priority, perhaps adding one more top-of-the-rotation starter.

    Kansas City Royals
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $36.1 million
    Money coming off the books: $8.6 million
    Notable free agents: Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Jason Kendall, Matt Treanor

    The Royals would like to bring back Chen, but the rest of their free agents probably will depart. The Royals have done a great job of developing position players and now they’re waiting for their pitching prospects to do the same. I doubt they make the same mistake they made when they signed free-agent pitcher Gil Meche and overpaid him to get him to come to K.C.

    Minnesota Twins
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $112.7 million
    Money coming off the books: $37.15 million
    Notable free agents: Joe Nathan (team option), Matt Capps, Michael Cuddyer, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel

    The Twins already traded away Delmon Young to reduce next year’s payroll and more payroll reduction is likely to come. It is doubtful the club will pick up Nathan's option and Capps will leave as well. They’d like to bring Cuddyer back for right field, but the low inventory of quality right-handed hitting outfielders could price him out of Minnesota. Kubel or Thome could return but I doubt both. The Twins won’t be big players on the market because of the long-term commitments they’ve made to Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer.

    AL WEST

    Los Angeles Angels
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $139 million
    Money coming off the books: $14.5 million
    Notable free agents: Joel Pineiro, Fernando Rodney

    The Angels have boxed themselves in with the big contracts of Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu for the corner outfield and DH positions. They’d like to find a way to have both Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout, who are both excellent fielders, in the same outfield. They have a real need for a 100-RBI bat, and I would never put it past owner Arte Moreno to give GM Tony Reagins the power to go after Fielder or Pujols. That way, they have insurance in case Kendrys Morales never fully recovers from his ankle injury. If he does, they're stacked. (Although that would crowd the DH spot.) The tweaking of their bullpen and back end of their starting rotation will probably have to also come from free agency since they’re limited in trade talks because of their lack of the minor-league prospect depth.

    Oakland A's
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $66.6 million
    Money coming off the books: $29.62 million
    Notable free agents: Rich Harden, Michael Wuertz, David DeJesus, Coco Crisp, Josh Willingham, Conor Jackson, Hideki Matsui

    The A’s have tried to find undervalued position players on the free-agent market the last couple of years with very little success. With a major need to upgrade their offense and deal with the potential loss of five free-agent outfielders/DHs, the A’s could be players again. Of course, getting free agents to come to play in the Coliseum is a difficult task. The A’s hope to get draft picks for some of their free agents, but in the process of having to offer them arbitration to get them, most likely will get stuck with at least one of them.

    Seattle Mariners
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $86.4 million
    Money coming off the books: $7.65 million
    Notable free agents: Adam Kennedy, Jack Wilson

    As you can see, the Mariners will not see that much overhaul this off-season, unless they decide to increase their payroll significantly.

    Texas Rangers
    2011 Opening Day payroll: $92.3 million
    Money coming off the books: $10.3 million
    Notable free agents: C.J. Wilson, Darren Oliver

    The Rangers priority in free agency will be to try and retain both Wilson and Oliver. Both players are happy in Texas and would like to stay. However, Wilson coud get an offer from the Yankees he can’t refuse. If that happens, then Neftali Feliz will probably replace him in the rotation. Most of the rest of the Rangers' roster is expected to stay the same, which isn't surprising considering their status as the class of the AL West.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    As someone pointed out, Seattle has Bradley ($10M+) coming off the books. Usually when people look at money coming off the books, it is usually pieces where the team has no intention of bringing back, etc.

    If I were to look at your Red Sox number only Okajima, Drew and probably Scutaro are not back. They will most likely bring Papelbon, and Ortiz back. Probably Wakefield and Varitek for cheap money.

    Also, your number doesn't factor in Gonzalez going from $7M to $23M.

    The Red Sox really don't have much money to spend, given the pay raises that Ellsbury and some of the others are going to get.  I also have to believe the Sox are going to try and lock up Aceves to at least a 2 year deal, given what he's done. 

    Jenks is a waste of money and roster space at $6M.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    Great info rkarp. Thanks.

    Some interesting observations:

    1) The Yanks are losing $22M, but nobody really important. If they use that to sign 2-3 good players, they will be a lot better at the same cost.

    2) For once, TB and Toronto lose no big name FAs. They have some young players and could improve with some strategic signings.

    3) This list only counts who are FAs, not scheduled raises and arb judgements. Also, luxury tax dollars are not always equal to a players last year of pay.
     
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