2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses).

    There will be some arb induced raises:
    Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb 2 of 3)
    Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4)
    Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)

    There are options:
    Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out)
    Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached)
    A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here)

    There are FreeAgents:
    JD Drew    $14M  
    Ortiz          $12.5M
    Papelbon  $10.33M
    Varitek      $2M
    Wakefield $2M
    Bedard      $1M

    I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below.

    I think Theo does not give Scutaro the club option, so if Scutty is back, it will be at $3M. I think Wheeler is not given his option, and I am not sure what the deal is with Miller anymore.

    I think the arb induced raises will not be very large. None of the players are in their last arb year. Ellsbury and Salty will get nice raises, but not grand. Albers, Aceves, and Bard will do OK also.

    My numbers may be wrong here, and my projections as well, but I'll say the arb guys get a total of $7M more in 2012 than in 2011. If Scutty ($7M on luxury tax role) and Wheeler ($3M) do not come back, that saves us about $10M. Assuming we bring Miller back, my guess is we will be evened out on arbs and options.

    My projections on Free Agents:
    Drew ($14M) walks
    Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $20M/2 plus incentives
    Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets the type A compensation)
    VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1
    Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives.

    Free agent net cost: $27M gain (lose Paps and Drew).

    Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25-30M to spend on these holes (Possible in house solutions):

    Closer: (Bard? Jenks?) 
    SS: (Aviles, Lowrie, Iglesias)
    RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac)
    RP: (several options)

    If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster:

    C: Salty/Vtek
    1B: AGon
    2B: Pedey
    3B: Youk
    SS: Aviles/Lowrie
    LF: Craw/DMac
    CF: Ells
    RF: Reddick/Kalish
    DH: Papi
    (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias)

    SP1 Beckett
    SP2 Lester
    SP3 Buch
    SP4 Lack
    SP5 Wake
    SP6 Dice or Miller
    RP1 Bard
    RP2 Jenks
    RP3 Albers
    RP4 Aceves
    RP5 Morales
    RP6 Doubront
    (several other options)

    There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club.

    Your thoughts?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    What keeps happening to the thread?

    Overall, I don't see any major additions.  An arm and a better right handed bat and that's about it.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    Papi? Paps? Scutaro? Wheeler? Wake? Vtek?

    A lot depends on these decisions.

    I agree in principle, a RH'd platoon RF'er who can field well and has an arm along with a another arm (to replace Bedard/Dice-K) and keep our starting staff depth high.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from tbrod. Show tbrod's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    A platoon RF on a team with less right handed power than they've had in decades?
    Yeah, OK.
    If you think Mr. 240 since the All-Star break and .214 for August, is the answer, you'd better revisit your stats.
    Like Kalish, he has value as a 4th OF.
    This OF is weak on production, and just what if Jacoby doesn't have the year he's having. You'd need to go to the dead ball era to find a more feeble Sox OF.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions:
    Papi? Paps? Scutaro? Wheeler? Wake? Vtek? A lot depends on these decisions. I agree in principle, a RH'd platoon RF'er who can field well and has an arm along with a another arm (to replace Bedard/Dice-K) and keep our starting staff depth high.
    Posted by moonslav59


    I didn't say there wouldn't be major decisions but as far as additions... nothing major.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    I happen to think Reddick/Kalish can provide good numbers vs RHPs going forward. My biggest concern is our OF numbers vs LHPs. I doubt Theo will spend big to get an all around OF'er this winter, unless he lets Papi walk.

    I'd also like to have a platoon for LF, but it ain't happenin'.

    I wouldn't mind seeing HanRam in RF next year.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions:
    Interesting money off the books article by Jim Bowden from ESPN 1. Boston Red Sox : $48,750,000 2. Minnesota Twins : $37,150,000 3. Detroit Tigers : $35,250,000 4. Oakland Athletics : $29,620,000 5. Chicago White Sox : $25,450,000 6. New York Yankees : $22.500,000 7. Toronto Blue Jays : $15,600,000 8. Baltimore Orioles : $15,500,000 9. Los Angeles Angels : $14,500,000 10. Texas Rangers : $10,300,000 11. Tampa Bay Rays : $10,025,000 12. Kansas City Royals : $8,600,000 13. Cleveland Indians : $8,275,000 14. Seattle Mariners : $7,650,000
    Posted by rkarp

    Do you have a link to Jim Bowden's piece?

    The Seattle Mariners should have $20+ million coming off the books with Milton Bradley, Jack Wilson, Jack Cust, Chris Ray, Adam Kennedy, Jamey Wright, Ryan Langerhans and probably non-tender candidate David Aardsma.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dHlaVTZxQUNfLWxSMnRxUXhMeXV1RHc&output=html
     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    As someone pointed out, Seattle has Bradley ($10M+) coming off the books. Usually when people look at money coming off the books, it is usually pieces where the team has no intention of bringing back, etc.

    If I were to look at your Red Sox number only Okajima, Drew and probably Scutaro are not back. They will most likely bring Papelbon, and Ortiz back. Probably Wakefield and Varitek for cheap money.

    Also, your number doesn't factor in Gonzalez going from $7M to $23M.

    The Red Sox really don't have much money to spend, given the pay raises that Ellsbury and some of the others are going to get.  I also have to believe the Sox are going to try and lock up Aceves to at least a 2 year deal, given what he's done. 

    Jenks is a waste of money and roster space at $6M.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Red Sox Big Payroll Decisions

    Great info rkarp. Thanks.

    Some interesting observations:

    1) The Yanks are losing $22M, but nobody really important. If they use that to sign 2-3 good players, they will be a lot better at the same cost.

    2) For once, TB and Toronto lose no big name FAs. They have some young players and could improve with some strategic signings.

    3) This list only counts who are FAs, not scheduled raises and arb judgements. Also, luxury tax dollars are not always equal to a players last year of pay.
     
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