They closed the Part II thread...
According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses).
There will be some arb induced raises:
Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb 2 of 3)
Albers $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4)
Salty $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
Aceves $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
Bard $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
DMac $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
Lowrie $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
There are options:
Scutaro $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out)
Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached)
A. Miller $3m club option ? (some gray area here)
There are FreeAgents:
JD Drew $14M
I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below.
I think Theo does not give Scutaro the club option, so if Scutty is back, it will be at $3M. I think Wheeler is not given his option, and I am not sure what the deal is with Miller anymore.
I think the arb induced raises will not be very large. None of the players are in their last arb year. Ellsbury and Salty will get nice raises, but not grand. Albers, Aceves, and Bard will do OK also.
My numbers may be wrong here, and my projections as well, but I'll say the arb guys get a total of $7M more in 2012 than in 2011. If Scutty ($7M on luxury tax role) and Wheeler ($3M) do not come back, that saves us about $10M. Assuming we bring Miller back, my guess is we will be evened out on arbs and options.
My projections on Free Agents:
Drew ($14M) walks
Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $20M/2 plus incentives
Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets the type A compensation)
VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1
Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives.
Free agent net cost: $27M gain (lose Paps and Drew).
Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25-30M to spend on these holes (Possible in house solutions):
Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)
SS: (Aviles, Lowrie, Iglesias)
RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac)
RP: (several options)
If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster:
(Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias)
SP6 Dice or Miller
(several other options)
There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club.