2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    I'm not sure why they closed this thread after just a few hours, so here it is again...

    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses).

    There will be some arb induced raises:
    Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb 2 of 3)
    Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4)
    Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)

    There are options:
    Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out)
    Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached)
    A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here)

    There are FreeAgents:
    JD Drew    $14M  
    Ortiz          $12.5M
    Papelbon  $10.33M
    Varitek      $2M
    Wakefield $2M
    Bedard      $1M

    I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below.

    I think Theo does not give Scutaro the club option, so if Scutty is back, it will be at $3M. I think Wheeler is not given his option, and I am not sure what the deal is with Miller anymore.

    I think the arb induced raises will not be very large. None of the players are in their last arb year. Ellsbury and Salty will get nice raises, but not grand. Albers, Aceves, and Bard will do OK also.

    My numbers may be wrong here, and my projections as well, but I'll say the arb guys get a total of $7M more in 2012 than in 2011. If Scutty ($7M on luxury tax role) and Wheeler ($3M) do not come back, that saves us about $10M. Assuming we bring Miller back, my guess is we will be evened out on arbs and options.

    My projections on Free Agents:
    Drew ($14M) walks
    Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $20M/2 plus incentives
    Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets the type A compensation)
    VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1
    Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives.

    Free agent net cost: $27M gain (lose Paps and Drew).

    Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25-30M to spend on these holes (Possible in house solutions):

    Closer: (Bard? Jenks?) 
    SS: (Aviles, Lowrie, Iglesias)
    RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac)
    RP: (several options)

    If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster:

    C: Salty/Vtek
    1B: AGon
    2B: Pedey
    3B: Youk
    SS: Aviles/Lowrie
    LF: Craw/DMac
    CF: Ells
    RF: Reddick/Kalish
    DH: Papi
    (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias)

    SP1 Beckett
    SP2 Lester
    SP3 Buch
    SP4 Lack
    SP5 Wake
    SP6 Dice or Miller
    RP1 Bard
    RP2 Jenks
    RP3 Albers
    RP4 Aceves
    RP5 Morales
    RP6 Doubront
    (several other options)

    There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club.

    Your thoughts?
     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    CA, SS, and RF are the only positions they can toy with in the off-season. If the Red Sox win the WS now than Tek gets another year, as does Ortiz. Otherwise both will be gone with the DH spot becoming a rest stop for Youk and others... and a CA with an arm and pop will be acquired one way or the other.

    Hey moon do you think that the Red Sox believe a starter should only go 6? Seems they are moving backwards on this as starters should be trained and strong enough to pitch 7 every time.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    With all our starters getting hurt, maybe they are being overly cautious. Beckett seemed to be losing it after the ball hit off his foot.

    Our pen has been pretty tough. That makes a quick hook easier to choose.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    I look at Beckett a lot like Lee ... he can complete games. I think the horse should be exactly that, a horse.  

    Alas a good win... Beckett is going to end up with a low win total for such a great season, and half of the reason will be that he gets Yanked in 6 almost every game.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    I think we'll see very minor adjustments for 2012.  They're going to want to try filling in RF from within.  SS is the interesting position.  I see them letting Scutaro go while bringing back Aviles.  That will give them:

    Lowrie, Aviles and Iglesias at SS.

    Paps will leave and I think Bard will finally take over the closer's role.  There have been a few guys that have emerged this season as potential 8th inning candidates.

    The Sox sort of need Ortiz but not as much as Ortiz needs the Red Sox.  The only other team that would outbid the Sox for his servicse would be the Yankees.  I just don't see them locking Ortiz up for 2+ seasons when A-Rod is nearing his DH days while they also have Montero in the minors.  I may be wrong.  My guess is that they re-sign Ortiz at a 2 year deal.

    I see Varitek coming back as well.  He seems to like this backup role and is actually playing fairly well in it.  As you mentioned, Salty will get a very nice raise.

    I think that they will look to do a few things with the money they are saving with Drew and Paps off the books.  I can see them attempting to lock up Ellsbury long-term but I'm not confident that a deal will get done this offseason.

    Another interesting option could be looking into another starter.  Maybe Mark Buehrle for 2 years.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    SPC: good post.

    I think it might come down to Papi or Paps with Papi getting the nod.

    If we let Papi go, we could see Lavarnway at DH vs RHPs, Youk at DH vs LHPs, and Jed at 3B vs LHPs. Having Lavarnway would also allow for PH'ing for VTek late in games, since we would have a 3rd catcher on board in case of injury.

    If we lose Papi and Paps, we'd have lots of money to spend.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Mt200. Show Mt200's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    Bard will get $3-$4M in arbitration. Still very cheap for what he brings. Had he rack up saves the last 3 year, he's getting $6-7M.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions:
    [QUOTE]SPC: good post. I think it might come down to Papi or Paps with Papi getting the nod. If we let Papi go, we could see Lavarnway at DH vs RHPs, Youk at DH vs LHPs, and Jed at 3B vs LHPs. Having Lavarnway would also allow for PH'ing for VTek late in games, since we would have a 3rd catcher on board in case of injury. If we lose Papi and Paps, we'd have lots of money to spend.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Thanks Moon.

    Scutaro and Paps off the books should cover arbitration for Salty, Bard, Ellsbury... or at least come close to it.

    The real interesting dilemma will be what to do with the $25M plus that they could potentially save with Ortiz and Drew off the books.  They could put $10M of that back into Ortiz for next season.  I think this is still more likely to happen than not.  That gives them another $15M to spend or save.  Do they try adding a starter like Buehrle?  Do they go after a premier bullpen arm (unlikely with the emerging depth)?  Do they simply save it to target a rental player during next year's deadline?

    Lavarnway is also a very intriguing player.  If the Sox commit to Salty as their long term catcher, I think it's best to at least build up potential trade value in Lavarnway as a catcher.  I do think he could potentially serve as the long term DH but putting him in that role early will only dimish his trade value.

    No matter how you slice it, the Sox are sitting pretty for 2012.  No gaping holes to fill.  The minor holes they have to fill may easily be addressed with the farm system.  1-4 in the rotation is locked up, leaving one flex spot at #5.  Theo restocked the bullpen this year and it's safe to assume that some of these emerging arms will carry over to 2012.  Best of all, there's money coming off the books and many directions to go in with spending it.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    Now I'm thinking we do bring Wheeler back at his $3M option, especially if Paps walks.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    CA, SS, and RF are the only positions they can toy with in the off-season...

    What about starting pitcher?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    Good thread Moon.

    I don't think Papi deserves a pay decrease, I think we give him 12.5 million again, with a team option of 12.5 for 2013 and a player option of like 7.5 (so its really like 2/20)

    I think the Sox should buy one of Salty's free agency years and give him like 4/16, so 3-4-4-5. He'll still only be 29-30 when he hits free agency. Tek was 31-32 when he scored his 4/40.

    They should do the same with Bard at like 4/24. He knows he will be the closer b/c Paps is allowed to walk. pay him 4-6-6-8.

    I see this being next years lineup/$

    CF - Ellsbury - 7 million
    2B - Pedey - 8m
    1B - Gonzalez - 21m
    3B - Youk - 12m
    DH - Papi - 12.5m
    LF - Crawford - 19.5m
    RF - Reddick - 500k
    C - Salty - 3m
    SS - Scutaro - 3m

    Lowrie - 1m
    Tek - 1.5m
    free agent RH OFer - 4m

    I like Reed Johnson (cheap 2m) and Josh Willingham (expensive 6m) based on their splits vs. lefties being strong.

    Beckett - 15.75m
    Lester - 7.5m
    Buchholz - 3.5m
    Lackey - 15.25
    Bedard or Miller - 3m
    Dice-K - 10m
    Wake - 3m

    Aceves - 1m
    felix/Morales - 1m
    Albers - 1.5m
    Wheeler - 3m
    Jenks - 6m
    Bard - 4m

    We need to trade for or sign a lefty free agent, for now I'll leave that out and put Felix Doubrant and Morales in there.

    The total is 166-169 million (depending on the righty Ofer we add, the team liklet says goodbye to DMac). I'd think we have the flexibility to add a good lefty for the pen as well.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    I think you may be right on Papi at $12.5M, but he may get $20M/2 with incentive that could bring him over $12.5 per year.

    I don't think Bard gets extended. His arb raise will not be large.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    ok so here is how i see it. Here are the guys i dont think will be back:

    drew
    wake (he will finally retire)
    papi (sox will not meet his contract demands)
    wheeler

    Guys who will be back:

    tek (for cheap)
    paps (i think in the end he stays with the sox)
    scutaro (he will prob exercise his player option)
    Bedard (i think if he pitches well, the sox will extend him for another as the fa pitching class is very weak this year but is much better next year)

    So our roster would be:

    C - salty/tek (maybe lavarnway gets a shot too)
    1B -agonz
    2b -pedroia
    3B - youk
    SS - iglesias/scutaro (lowrie i think gets traded though the sox could buy out scutaro and use lowrie as the back up)
    LF - crawford
    CF - ellsbury
    RF - reddick/kalish (i think they stay internal on this one)
    DH -Fielder (this is where they should make a big splash, ortiz is near the end of his career and fielder is the perfect replacement for him and the sox have the money to do it with the money they saved from drew and papi.(26.5 mill) The sox need a number 4 hitter as youk is not the answer. He would be a great number 5 hitter and i believe fielder would be the perfect number 4. He hits for huge power and a pretty good average and would give the sox the best 3/4 punch in the league)

    Rotation

    beckett
    lester
    buchholz
    bedard (should be fine for one more year, then we can get someone better after next season when the free agent class is much stronger in terms of pitching)
    lackey

    pen

    paps
    bard
    jenks(though if he is on an option for next year i would not pick it up)
    morales (maybe, depends how he does the rest of the year)
    aceves
    albers
    mike gonzalez (2nd lefty, best free agent lefty available)

    Other RP free agents the sox should consider : jonathan broxton, ryan madson, joel zumaya.

    If paps leaves then we need a closer, there are 2 guys i would get to replace him via free agency: 

    heath bell (veteran closer, nasty stuff, would probably cost less than paps and would not require a long term deal)

    francisco rodriguez ( 1 year younger than paps, has experience in the AL, is still really nasty)

    So here is the line up for next season:

    ellsbury
    pedroia
    gonzalez
    fielder
    youk
    crawford
    reddick/kalish
    salty
    iglesias

    rotation

    beckett
    lester
    buchholz
    bedard
    lackey

    pen 

    paps
    bard
    jenks
    albers
    aceves
    morales
    m.gonzalez

    looks good to me. the only big trade i could see the sox making is for a starter to replace bedard if they decide not to bring him back. 




     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from PawsoxPhil. Show PawsoxPhil's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    Great thread. Many astute comments.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    Good laydown by moonslav.  I agree on keeping the outfield and infield--less Scutaro--intact. 

    Between Ortiz and Papelbon, a tough choice.  Ortiz is the best DH in MLB, but he is 35 and is going to expect two years.  Papelbon ain't the best, but he is very good and pairs well with Bard, plus he is 31 (I think).   

    I don't see Youk switching to DH because then the Sox will need a good-hitting thirdbaseman--too hard.  And I don't see Lavarnway suddenly taking over at DH.  So I agree the Sox will re-sign Papi.

    And I agree Papelbon is likely to go elsewhere, primarily because of Bard.  

    On the other hand, the Sox could trade Ellsbury, Lester, Bard and Lavarnway to the Dodgers in order to get Kemp.  That's softy's approach.   He seems to believe that nothing is possible until a team has a good hitting righty outfielder. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from javaukti. Show javaukti's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions:
    [QUOTE]I think you may be right on Papi at $12.5M, but he may get $20M/2 with incentive that could bring him over $12.5 per year...
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    $12.5 is a lot for an aging DH who is a liability in the field. Even at $10M/yr he would be the highest paid DH around. I think a lot may depend on where his numbers end up: he's been fairly cold since the All-Star break. 

    Being branded (BIG PAPI) he has added value for the Sox. Maybe even more to the Yankees. Perhaps they retaliate for Theo's offer to Mariano. I could see the NYY making a 2/20 offer just to force our hand. Besides that would be a very scary line-up w/Ortiz.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    Good laydown by moonslav.  I agree on keeping the outfield and infield--less Scutaro--intact.

    Thanks. I thi nk Redsoxpride may be right about Scutaro. He may take the player option and return. Also, since the buyout is $1.5M and the team option is $6M, the differential is only $4.5M. The Sox might take him back if he health looks OK. They may also trade him if he takes the player option.  

    Between Ortiz and Papelbon, a tough choice.  Ortiz is the best DH in MLB, but he is 35 and is going to expect two years.  Papelbon ain't the best, but he is very good and pairs well with Bard, plus he is 31 (I think). 

    Alot depends on Theo's willingness to go with Bard as the closer. I guess Theo could go out and spend on a FA closer, but saving monet by letting Paps go so you can spend it on another closer kind of defeats the purpose to me.  

    I don't see Youk switching to DH because then the Sox will need a good-hitting thirdbaseman--too hard.  And I don't see Lavarnway suddenly taking over at DH.  So I agree the Sox will re-sign Papi

    I hope Papi returns. I know $10M+ for a DH is high, but there are two (actually 3) reasons to keep him:

    1) No Papi in a Yankee uniform
    2) He's a Boston legend.
    3) Softy's racial rants would be tenfold.

    And I agree Papelbon is likely to go elsewhere, primarily because of Bard.

    I want Paps back, but the cost will be high- in my opinion too high for any closer- and we may get draft picks when he signs elsewhere..  

    On the other hand, the Sox could trade Ellsbury, Lester, Bard and Lavarnway to the Dodgers in order to get Kemp.  That's softy's approach.   He seems to believe that nothing is possible until a team has a good hitting righty outfielder

    He seems to think a lot of things, most absurd and always evolving.  

    Most teams attempt to improve by replacing their weak links, not by trading away their strength.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    $12.5 is a lot for an aging DH who is a liability in the field. Even at $10M/yr he would be the highest paid DH around. I think a lot may depend on where his numbers end up: he's been fairly cold since the All-Star break.

    He normally heats it up the second half. This year has been a flip.

    Being branded (BIG PAPI) he has added value for the Sox. Maybe even more to the Yankees. Perhaps they retaliate for Theo's offer to Mariano. I could see the NYY making a 2/20 offer just to force our hand. Besides that would be a very scary line-up w/Ortiz

    The Yanks may need to keep the DH slot open for ARod. They need ARod's bat more than his glove and have a lot of money invested in him. If the Yanks are not in the running, perhaps the price will come down. I could see a heavily incentive laden contract offer with some of the incentives very easy to reach, maybe something like this:

    2012: $8.5M guarenteed plus
    - 500K for 80 RBI and 200K for every 10 RBI after.
    - 500K for 20 HRs and 250K for 25 and 250K for 30.
    - 500K for a .850 OPS and another 500K for a .900 OPS and another for a .950 OPS.
    - 500K for 450 PAs, and 100K for every 50 PAs over 450.

    2013: $8M base with same incentives.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from softylaw. Show softylaw's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    On the other hand, the Sox could trade Ellsbury, Lester, Bard and Lavarnway to the Dodgers in order to get Kemp. That's softy's approach. He seems to believe that nothing is possible until a team has a good hitting righty outfielder

    No, your hyperbole is crybaby material. Ellsbury is a FA in 2014. Cost for 2 years will be 12 to 14M. Crawford is the same style player for 20M a year.

    Board and Moonslow approach is to pay the 12 to 14M and dumpster dive for a Rh OF'er or go with all lefties, because harness says most pitchers are Rh. Then, either give Ellsbury a FA 143M contract or wait until then and decide if a better Rh OF'er is on market.


    He seems to think a lot of things, most absurd and always evolving.

    He seems to think the Rays are not going away, all abusrd, and never evolving.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    The Sox won 2 WS with a good-hitting right-handed outfielder...They made it to the 1986 WS with two good-hitting right-handed outfielders. They made the playoffs last time they made it with a good-hitting right-handed OF. Sounds like a good idea to me.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    On the other hand, the Sox could trade Ellsbury, Lester, Bard and Lavarnway to the Dodgers in order to get Kemp. That's softy's approach. He seems to believe that nothing is possible until a team has a good hitting righty outfielder

    No, your hyperbole is crybaby material. Ellsbury is a FA in 2014. Cost for 2 years will be 12 to 14M. Crawford is the same style player for 20M a year. 

    Board and Moonslow approach is to pay the 12 to 14M and dumpster dive for a Rh OF'er or go with all lefties, because harness says most pitchers are Rh. Then, either give Ellsbury a FA 143M contract or wait until then and decide if a better Rh OF'er is on market.


    He seems to think a lot of things, most absurd and always evolving.

    He seems to think the Rays are not going away, all abusrd, and never evolving

    ____________________________

    No, I have said I was wrong. The Rays have "gone away". Stop you "hyperbole" and blatant misrepreseentations.

    Besides, you have a glitch in your logic: just because someone was wrong before, doesn't mean they are wrong now and forever and ever. You seem to think that because you find an incident where a poster was wrong in the past, this somehow elevates you to a higher level and them to a position of always being wrong. Your reasoning is highly flawed, and besides, nobody on this board has been wrong more often over the last year than you.

    The fact that the Rays went away has nothing to do with your fantasy Ellsbury trade to LA.

    Your whole trade foundation is based on the fact that Kemp will extend to play in a racist city like Boston (your take).

    Crawford has nothing to do with Ellsbury. They are not the "same style player". Jacoby is a way better leadoff guy than Crawford. Jacoby hits LHPs way better than CC. Jacoby is younger than CC. Jacoby is underpaid and CC is massively overpaid.

    Softy wants this at leadoff (career numbers-softy's stat of choice):
    Crawford:
    OBP overall: .335
    OBP at leadoff: .319
    OBP vs RHPs: .345
    OBP vs LHPs: .310

    Instead of this:
    Jake:
    OBP overall: .352
    OBP at leadoff: .344
    OBP vs RHPs: .353
    OBP vs LHPs: .348

    He used to use Jake's OBP as a leadoff guys to bash him. It is 25 points higher than CC;s and is at .381 this year (62 pts higher)

    He now bashes Jake for his numbers vs LHPs. Jake has a 38 point higher career OBP than CC vs LHPs.

    He thinks LA will trade the younger Kemp for a player who has Bora$$ for an agent and will likely walk from LA after 2 years. He thought the same of SD. If LA ever does decide to dump Kemp, it won't be for a profile like Jake, it will be for young players with 4-5 years of team control. We all know softy just wants Jake and Jed to go to an NL team, so that when they put up great numbers, he can just say the numbers are inflated by playing in the "AAAA League".

    Silly clown.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    moon at the very least it was good to have a running thread on another team... it would be good if this board had more of it.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    Burrito, as you probably know, the whole thread started after softy said TB would "go away" in early July 2010. He denies it now, of course.

    The TB has serious issues with fan support and financial viability, but they have excellent baseball management for a "small market team". They are stacked with many very good young prospects. They are stacked with many very good young players with several years of team control on their major league roster. They have a great young starting rotation who already has a lot of pressure experience. They tend to let players walk just in time. They tend to trade away players for top prospects just in time. They tend to build a solid pen each year from "scraps". They have a very good manager. They have a very good defense, good speed, and a bright future.

    I was wrong about this year. I thought they'd win 90-92 games and be in the race "until the end". They are on pace for about 85-86 wins. You'd think I had picked the O's to win the WC are something.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions

    I thought they might do better too. Even though I despise the franchise on a whole  had hoped they would remain competitive so that we don't always have a two horse race (again and again and again).
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: 2012 Sox Payroll and Big Decisions


    The season isn't over. The Rays could still get to 91 wins. The point originally was that they wouldn't just roll over and die as some said they would. Then we put a number on it. It was no big deal and if anything, compared to Softbrain, we have been vindicated overall.
     
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