2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from bald-predictions. Show bald-predictions's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    Softlaw is usually ahead of the curve on these things, but I hope you're wrong this time.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    my god you whine a lot stiffy!

    quit your blatassing and just enjoy the baseball season. the team is much improved. better pitching, better coaching, good depth in case we experience another rash of injuries and a lot of cavalry that should help us make a PS run.

    if you didn't cry so much you might not be so miserable...

     
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    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    With a $150 million payroll they are on par with the angels,tigers,jays and rangers salary wise but nowhere near those teams talant wise.This is just a sad situation they managed to wiggle themselves into.

     
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    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    In response to bald-predictions' comment:

    Softlaw is usually ahead of the curve on these things, but I hope you're wrong this time.



    Of course, one is always ahead of the curve if they predict bad outcomes and some of the results come to fruition.  I can just as easily predict improvements in the performances of some players, and I will be correct sometimes also.  Of course, Softy's world is a hypothetical one far removed from reality.  He boasts of transactions he advocated that would never have been made by the other GMs.  

    Now, if my money was riding on any of it, I wouldn't bet on the Red Sox winning more than 87 games.  What I would predict is the following for the staff:

    1. Both Lester's and Buchholz's performances will improve over last season.  At least one of them will improve significantly.  

    2. I'm not expecting too much from Dempster, and I was not crazy about this acquisition, but even still, he will outperform the 2012 Josh Beckett, although not by much.  Throw in Dice-K's hideous numbers (8.28 ERA; 1.71 WHIP) to make up the difference for the Beckett shortfall in outings and innings, and you have a decent gain overall.

    3. Even if Lackey gave us his 2010 numbers (4.40 ERA; 1.419 WHIP), which I predict he will best by a little, it will still be a significant improvement over a combination of Aaron Cook (5.65 ERA; 1.47 WHIP) and Daniel Bard (6.22 ERA; 1.74 WHIP).  

    4. Doubrant is a wash.  I predict his performance will even decline a little.  However, if he doesn't progress, the shortfall will made up by a pitcher to be inserted later, be that Morales, Tazawa, Aceves, one of the ex-Dodgers, or a player to be acquired.  In the end, performance in the slot should come out about even.

    5. All of the above will be bolstered by a deep and well-leveraged bullpen, which should easily adjust to underachievement or injuries to one or even a few.

    Conclusion: Pitching overall will improve significantly, especially under Farrell's leadership.  Last year's skipper was an absentee manager.  

    As far as offense:

    1B: Even with A-Gon's significant lead over Napoli in BA, A-Gon's OPS was .812 as a member of the Red Sox last season.  Ironically, Napoli's 2012 OPS was .812 also.  Playing in Fenway with a lot performance incentive, he will beat this.  Still, a loss in defense will offset these gains.  Overall, it's a wash.

    2B: Dusty is about as consistent as they get.  He was below career norms in OPS last season.  Expect a slight improvement.

    SS: Drew will return to career norms and beat Aviles's 2012 .663 OPS by at least 50 points. Not a significant upgrade on D, but a slight upgrade nontheless.  If Iggy emerges, Drew is gone.  Hopefully, someone badly needs a shortstop at the deadline.

    3B: Middlebrooks will likely play more than 75 games.  Even if his averages slip a little, this will be a big net gain.

    OF: A combination of Gomes, Bradley (it's only a month, impatient ones), Ellsbury with a lot at stake, Victorino, Nava, and the Professor and Mary Ann to possibly replace Ellsbury, will still be a big improvement over last season's outfield, even taking into account the loss of Ross's power numbers.  This year's leftfield platoon will be enough to offset the loss of rightfield production, which Victorino makes up a bit for in defense and speed on the basepaths.   A net gain overall, with Ellsbury, JBJ, and the rest greatly besting a 2012 Ellsbury and company.

    C: I expect about the same from Salty with an overall slight net improvement with the addition of Ross.

    DH: OK glass-half-emptiers, you've got me here.  Even if Papi plays as many games, he will not likely come close to measuring up to last year's production.  A patchwork leftover from the Gilligan Island cast (see OF), maybe including Lava, might be it.  Not good.  Still, net gains overall at almost every position should offset the loss here by a lot.

    Conclusion: Gains almost everywhere and a watchable team.  Good for at least 15 more wins.  A lot of the money is tied up in placeholders until the calvary arrives in a couple of seasons.  Postseason and beyond is not likely, but still within the realm of possibility.  Some of the pieces may be flipped for futures.  While it's not a great return on investment, it is at least an investment and not inaction, which would result in watching something only slightly better than last season's post-trade AAA team.  I'm certainly not buying into Softy's hypothetical acquistions of what would never have happened in any seeming reality.

     

     

     
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    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    With a $150 million payroll they are on par with the angels,tigers,jays and rangers salary wise but nowhere near those teams talant wise.This is just a sad situation they managed to wiggle themselves into.

    Short, sweet and correct.



    And with a modest payroll, they are on par with the Pirates, Padres, and Jack Parr.

     

     

     
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    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    In response to bald-predictions' comment:

     

    "Softlaw is usually ahead of the curve on these things, "

     

    Why hasn't Softflaw's daily musing thread received any attention?

     

    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. 

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning_Kruger

    Somewhere in a basement in the Carolinas, out of ear shot of his nagging wife, a NE carpetbagger dropped his wine bottle when he read that John Henry had hired a SOSH poster to give Tito line-up suggestions.   He joined SOSH and BDC, but Henry never called.  791 the BDC poster, started a blog and soon was asked to blog on ESPN.  So the carpetbagger started his own blog, "free of censors", no one cared that it soon died.   Then he decides to copy Moon and start his own thread on BDC, sure enough it dies.  

    Dunning and Kruger have nailed him to a tee..

     

     

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    The misery that pours out of Softy's posts is amazing.  I think he's putting us all on though.  Nobody could be this miserable. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    My glass is half full, Softy's is just completely empty. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    I'm pretty sure the only thing that will be accomplished this year is Ben Cherington's dismissal as GM

    might be the worst 150mil ever spent on labor....

     

    the good news is that no one in the division looks invincible so just by the virtue of math we might be in it for a while....but i wouldnt bet a ton on it

     

    .500 would be a nice goal - thats what im shooting for

     
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    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    In response to georom4's comment:

    I'm pretty sure the only thing that will be accomplished this year is Ben Cherington's dismissal as GM

    might be the worst 150mil ever spent on labor....

     

    the good news is that no one in the division looks invincible so just by the virtue of math we might be in it for a while....but i wouldnt bet a ton on it

     

    .500 would be a nice goal - thats what im shooting for



    I agree....but don't count out the fact that we have one of the stronger minor leagues in the A.L. and have a lot of talent knocking on the door.  We might have better reinforcements coming up at the end of the year than anyone else.

    Now I'm not saying to go to Vegas and put all your money on the Sox.  I'm just trying to have my glass half full...actually it's more like 1/4 full.....I should go get some more coffee....and get to work. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    I'm pretty sure the only thing that will be accomplished this year is Ben Cherington's dismissal as GM

    might be the worst 150mil ever spent on labor....

     

    the good news is that no one in the division looks invincible so just by the virtue of math we might be in it for a while....but i wouldnt bet a ton on it

     

    .500 would be a nice goal - thats what im shooting for

     



    I agree....but don't count out the fact that we have one of the stronger minor leagues in the A.L. and have a lot of talent knocking on the door.  We might have better reinforcements coming up at the end of the year than anyone else.

     

    Now I'm not saying to go to Vegas and put all your money on the Sox.  I'm just trying to have my glass half full...actually it's more like 1/4 full.....I should go get some more coffee....and get to work. 



    as long as we play the best players, and give the kids serious playing time, Im happy - I have no illusions about the postseason....Im just going to enjoy the summertime game in a Zen way....unless I have to spend the entire season watching Drew, napoli, shane, and lackey stink it up - then i will go postal...enjoy your java Hugh!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    WHile I agree that the Sox will not be a top team....I do think that they will see some improvement.  I'm thinking 80 wins and build from there.  As mentioned before, we have a VERY solid farm system and a lot of potential coming up in the very near future.  My biggest issue with the team was the HUGE spending on maybe not the best talent out there...but most FA's were attached to draft picks and were WAY over-priced...even more so than the ones we have.  There was not a lot to be had on the trade market....and stop with the Upton drivel.  I will say though that I agree 100%...if this team does not perform...and the Cherry experiment end?  He deserved one more year since he was sealing with Theo's mistakes last year....but I think he really needs to show some results this year.

    BTW......It's baseball Soft guy.....not life.  Get off the ledge and relax.  Put your hate and energy towards something positive that can help the world.....

     
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    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    In response to bald-predictions' comment:

    Softlaw is usually ahead of the curve on these things, but I hope you're wrong this time.



    Like when he called Cody Ross a dumpster dive? Softlaw should start a fantasy team and stick to that.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    I hardly think BC will be fired, no matter the outcome, at the end of the 2013 season. They will give him a few years to allow for player development and to transform the team. Hes really had only 1 offseason to do what hes wanted, seeing his first offseason as GM he had next to nothing to spend along with a few bloated contracts.

    This is the first year and the first step of the Sox plan towards "The next great Red Sox team".

    To actually believe he would be let go after this season is wishful thinking. Sorry to rain on your parade.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    I think we all know that this team is built to be moderarately competitive this season.  they are going to be just good enough so that the fan base is not overly angered and this year will allow for Bradley, Webster, De larosa and Bogearts to see some time with boston later in the year and be ready next year.

    It is what it is.  It certainly isn't anything to be angry or disgusted by. It will be a decent team with slight playoff hopes.

    The team last year had to be blown up. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: 2013 Red Sox............No way Jose!

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

    I think we all know that this team is built to be moderarately competitive this season.  they are going to be just good enough so that the fan base is not overly angered and this year will allow for Bradley, Webster, De larosa and Bogearts to see some time with boston later in the year and be ready next year.

    It is what it is.  It certainly isn't anything to be angry or disgusted by. It will be a decent team with slight playoff hopes.

    The team last year had to be blown up. 




    Exactly snake. apparently those of us that understand what happened and what needs to be done can be a little more level headed and realistic about things.

     

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